Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[West is Best]

Everyone else got that tingling feeling?  We know that 19 / 20 it doesn't come to pass but at least the anticipation is fun.

ECM very potent from Thursday.

[northwestsnow]

For those wondering the BBC forcaster suggested the jet moving well south of the UK and ended with the comment, turning wintry..

EC/GFS also have the jet stream to the south..

This is why i am backing EC ..

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM Mean T240

I'm following it closely these last few days and that minus 4 line is even further south..trend is coldies friend tonight!!!!!!!❄

 

[weatherguy]

36 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

My recollection of ThatECMgate was that we had two out of three the big three promising us nNarnia and then the ECM joined the party!

 

After an evening's jubilation we woke up the next morning to find GFS, with the ECM and UKMO following closely, leading a hugely disappointing downgrade.

UKMO may well on board this time, but I will temper my excitement until Knocker is on board. I have too many scars already!

 

 

Well, as Michael Scott once put it, "I'm ready to be hurt again"... 

Of course we know from our previous experiences that nothing is ever set in stone, but we can only assess what is in front of us.  And that is broad support for an evolution, at a relatively close timeframe, which leads to some stonking charts.

[Ali1977]

Average height anomaly for Nov 2019 is very close to that of November’s that were precursor s to very -NAO Dec to Febs.  Thought I’d post some more positivity after the flurry we’ve had the last few days. 
As mentioned above that BBC update does lean towards the GFS/ECM, and its great to have some support verbally from a professional outfit so a massive there. 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Mapantz
Removed unnecessary remark

[The Real Snowman]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

144 ecm

.....but we need the UKMO to come on board in the morning.

Agreed. The UKMO will hopefully smell the coffee and get us even more excited. If it does and the evolution is maintained broadly across the models we will be very, very busy in here! Ladies and gentlemen I suggest fresh pants, sandwiches and copious amounts of hot tea. Oh and no one tell anyone until we get beyond T120. This is what this thread was made for! We are really on the hunt!!

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Everyone else got that tingling feeling?  We know that 19 / 20 it doesn't come to pass but at least the anticipation is fun.

ECM very potent from Thursday.

Oooh, yes @West is Best that feeling of walking in to a casino, options open, will it happen? At the start of winter... That's what most of us are here for....and today's model runs bring that snowy jackpot closer. Re the models, we just need the UKMO onside tomorrow, and it does have to be 0z - the difference at or before T120, so this must be resolved tomorrow!  and assuming that the UKMO gives ground, then it is more a question of who gets lucky regionally, so much more mileage in this and it is only the first week of winter....

[Scandinavian High.]

With this sudden swing to a much colder wintery outlook I’m wondering what Catacol views are ..

[Jordan S]

 

8 minutes ago, The Real Snowman said:

we will be very, very busy in here! 

Well with over 240 people watching this thread earlier and 170+ now it's fair to say its already busy

Here's the 850hpa upper air temperatures for the next 10 days according to the 12z GFS.. Milder interludes especially earlier on then a more consistent cold pattern shown.. 

Precipitation forecast for the same period. 

[The Real Snowman]

3 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

 

Well with over 240 people watching this thread earlier and 170+ now it's fair to say its already busy

Here's the 850hpa upper air temperatures for the next 10 days according to the 12z GFS.. Milder interludes especially earlier on then a more consistent cold pattern shown.. 

Precipitation forecast for the same period. 

Hahahaha very true! 

[Don]

16 minutes ago, The Real Snowman said:

Agreed. The UKMO will hopefully smell the coffee and get us even more excited. If it does and the evolution is maintained broadly across the models we will be very, very busy in here! Ladies and gentlemen I suggest fresh pants, sandwiches and copious amounts of hot tea. Oh and no one tell anyone until we get beyond T120. This is what this thread was made for! We are really on the hunt!!

Yes, next step is to get the UKMO on board and then wait for it to come into the 72 hour time frame!

[icykev]

Supposed to post Sunday(fell asleep)but always looked a key point

Too Tight the Isobars so breaks. Creates Iceland/Greenland heights.

 

Note the heights on eastern seaboard pushing, creating the slide. 

Off a cliff.

All Sunday charts even Sydney❄

Edited December 3, 2019 by icykev
Wrong image

[swfc]

36 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Everyone else got that tingling feeling?  We know that 19 / 20 it doesn't come to pass but at least the anticipation is fun.

ECM very potent from Thursday.

I get a tingle everyday and yes nothing comes to pass.thst said the anticipation is there !!!

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

I get a tingle everyday and yes nothing comes to pass.thst said the anticipation is there !!!

I've always said 'The anticipation is so much better than the it not happening'!  Although I've not applied it to weather before... 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Mike Poole

[tight isobar]

Okay...so we have 500 geopot-height evaluation/upper/thermo/ dynamics./mslp...

Icon-global-and temp plots..

All singing from the same hyme sheet (in a nutshell..

It's a variable polar maritime slide....into a probable notable arctic incursion...

With a very eye catching seaboard block...in the Pacific sector!!.

Then with momentum..and engage...literally the polar gates open!

 

With a broad cross conclusion of all dynamics-thus data working in harmony for evolution of the wanted.. 

An exiting few-days on the cards...and expect the usual model wobbles...

However again..It's all in ALL...preety rock solid looking for our first real polar outbreak.....the ride is about to start!!

 

 

Edit-click snaps for WANT of all above...ie which plot/snaps are which......

 

 

 

Edited December 3, 2019 by tight isobar

[January Snowstorm]

The beeb are certainly on board with their weekly forecast mentioning it turning 'quite wintry with snow' Though imo their forecast isn't quite as reliable as when they used the Met Office.

As for the models this cold spell has come out of the blue a little bit. Exciting times and at complete odds with most of the long range forecasts!! Of course time will tell if these charts move into the reliable 

 

[carinthian]

Chart of the day from winter overview (GEM global ) next Thurs/Fri . Snow falling with-in the 528 dam boundary especially West Midlands. The ECM run has the low further south crossing Northern France. Anything in between will see snow in Southern England. 9 days still along way off for any real snow prediction but models now showing a real potential risk next week.

C

[Mike Poole]

ICON 18z T120 v 12z T126:

Marginal upgrade re amplification but probably in the noise given levels of uncertainty, certainly no downgrade...GFS incoming...

Edited December 3, 2019 by Mike Poole

[StretfordEnd1996]

Yes ICON being 18z of course only goes to +120 but that's the main focal point of when everything starts to get going and it's pretty decent 

[feb1991blizzard]

 

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ICON 18z T120 v 12z T126:

 

Marginal upgrade re amplification but probably in the noise give levels of uncertainty, certainly no downgrade...GFS incoming...

Yes - here is the chart though.

Edited December 3, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

 

Yes - here is the chart though.

Yes sorry, I've sorted out my post above now!!

[Ice Day]

Well a (mostly) great set of 12z's, but the GFS run from 192 to deepest FI was quite astonishing and would bring significant snow pretty much anywhere across the UK over a 6/7 day period.  However, most have us have been here long enough to recognise the upgrade/downgrade nature of the models at this time of year, and it could well be that this GFS run will prove to be the high water mark for this upcoming cold spell.  But, hope springs eternal and all that, *IF* the pattern did establish, it could well be a rinse and repeat scenario lasting well into December. 

There does seem to be something different about this winter, just looking at the early extreme snowfalls in the US and Scandinavia on the 'Snow and Ice' thread.  It may all come to nothing, but given it's just the 3rd December, we're in a very good place IMO.

Anyway, onto the 18z and fingers crossed it will keep the trend going!?

Edited December 3, 2019 by Ice Day

[markw2680]

6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Well a (mostly) great set of 12z's, but the GFS run from 192 to deepest FI was quite astonishing and would bring significant snow pretty much anywhere across the UK over a 6/7 period.  However, most have us have been here long enough to recognise the upgrade/downgrade nature of the models at this time of year, and it could well be that this GFS run will prove to be the high water mark for this upcoming cold spell.  But, hope springs eternal and all that, *IF* the pattern did establish, it could well be a rinse and repeat scenario lasting well into December. 

There does seem to be something different about this winter, just looking at the early extreme snowfalls in the US and Scandinavia on the 'Snow and Ice' thread.  It may all come to nothing, but given it's just the 3rd December, we're in a very good place IMO.

Anyway, onto the 18z and fingers crossed it will keep the trend going!?

Yes I kind of think along the same lines of repeated pattens etc, it could well be quite a memorable winter but I certainly don’t want to be rushing the winter off before it’s started so once we get to next week let’s not look for the end straight away lol. Big question is will it all countdown like clockwork without the spoilers and will ukmo be on the same page come tomorrow.

right ready for yet another gfs run

[Duane S.]

The Southerly meandering jet propensity continues. No surprise whatsoever with the current output.

EP ridge has been gaining traction in recent days and is more than just a bit part player.

Clearly the UKMO not as good as the others but I agree with BFTP, not necessarily a killer to the potential fun and games around mid month.

I think this could be a great start to the skiing season for parts of the Alps...

[shaky]

Need that little low to develop around the eastern states at 90 hours and it will be game on!!that is where the ukmo departs from the other output very early on aswell!!