Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Incoming buzzwords..

North sea SST's...

Haven't look at them myself...

Here's the latest SSTs, NWS:

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Here's the latest SSTs, NWS:

Thanks Mike...

[Frosty.]

The models are firming up on a much colder spell next week, just taking the GEFS 12z mean as an example, there are ice days for the north and the south not much above freezing...and with it staying unsettled there would be an increasing risk of snow!.....Its hard not to start getting excited about the wintry potential despite the fact it's still in FI!!!!!.❄

PS..just need to get that mildie Darren Bett away from the controls of the Ukmo!!

 

[Tim Bland]

Day 10 ECM snow depths

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thanks Mike...

A broader view...

Nowt wrong with them tbh!!

[mother nature rocks]

So with the models looking as they are tonight (apart from UKMET, until tomorrow??) has anyone with far superior knowledge than myself got a feeling of rinse and repeat for the big day itself?? IF it all pans out as hoped by all

White Xmas anybody??

TIA, MNR ️

[markw2680]

4 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

The models are firming up on a much colder spell next week, just taking the GEFS 12z mean as an example, there are ice days for the north and the south not much above freezing...and with it staying unsettled there would be an increasing risk of snow!.....Its hard not to start getting excited about the wintry potential despite the fact it's still in FI!!!!!.❄

PS..just need to get that mildie Darren Bett away from the controls of the Ukmo!!

 

Think looking at this output there’s only one thing left to do...... change your name back to frosty!!

can you imagine the buzz in this place come this time next week if all models are all in agreement and we are staring down the barrel of a freeze with lots of white suprises around

[Timmytour]

36 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

THAT ECM?

No, THIS ECM.

We've got 2/3 of the big hitters going for broadly the same evolution here, with the trigger occurring around +120h.  And to be frank, if I was told that 1 of the "big 3" were showing a less promising set up, I'd be hoping to God that it was the UKMO at this sort of range.

Game on.    

My recollection of ThatECMgate was that we had two out of three the big three promising us nNarnia and then the ECM joined the party!

 

After an evening's jubilation we woke up the next morning to find GFS, with the ECM and UKMO following closely, leading a hugely disappointing downgrade.

UKMO may well on board this time, but I will temper my excitement until Knocker is on board. I have too many scars already!

 

 

[Midlands Ice Age]

2 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

The stratosphere firmly in the driving seat on this episode; seems almost instantaneous response through all layers. This is why Canadian warmings were/are associated with cold weather west Europe ... Jet has departed USA to winter in the Caribbean !! Maybe ozone is the driver, perhaps echo from last winter or a low solar response. Whatever, no surprise to see surface charts when the big wheel up yonder looks like this.

Thanks GF...

This Ozone burst is not new...

It has been going on since the first week of November.

It seems to be a gradual process of wearing down the PV.

The warming is not as great, I suspect, as that of a major SSW, but it seems to be more and more coming, and the vortex is gradually being shunted into Siberia, with the continual pressure it is being put under.....

I think a couple more weeks of this and the pattern will be locked in.

Is there enough Ozone still around  to do this?

MIA

Edited December 3, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

My recollection of ThatECMgate was that we had two out of three the big three promising us nNarnia and then the ECM joined the party!

 

After an evening's jubilation we woke up the next morning to find GFS, with the ECM and UKMO following closely, leading a hugely disappointing downgrade.

UKMO may well on board this time, but I will temper my excitement until Knocker is on board. I have too many scars already!

 

 

My recollection was the ECM was the big dog showing us digging ourselves out and a mod saying get ready, it`s coming... and it erm.. took a wrong turn.

I`d be careful getting on the wagon again.

 

[cheshire snow]

29 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO will back down in the morning IMO...

It's had a brain fart ..

GFS/EC won't both be utterly wrong at 144...

Have to disagree mate until the UKMO on board I would not start waxing down the sledge just yet seen it many times GFS and ECM say yes and UKMO stubenly  says no.All very nice to look at though.

C.S

[Sweatyman]

11 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Day 10 ECM snow depths

0.004 ! cant wait

[nick sussex]

What’s complicating matters is the trough set up .

So the elongation out into the Atlantic, the coldest air can’t head south until that clears further se .

The models want to develop a shortwave which runs se then east which helps to pull that away to the se .

Earlier the ECM at day 7 does try to develop a more slider low , that could bring some interest if this is more shallow .

 

[Mike Poole]

ECM mean T240:

This isn't bad at all with the Atlantic ridge, and a trough into Europe, clearly influencing the mean chart.  Would have liked to see more purples in the vortex on the Siberian side, mind. 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Beanz]

12 minutes ago, mother nature rocks said:

So with the models looking as they are tonight (apart from UKMET, until tomorrow??) has anyone with far superior knowledge than myself got a feeling of rinse and repeat for the big day itself?? IF it all pans out as hoped by all

White Xmas anybody??

TIA, MNR ️

I’m not convinced next week is a done deal yet!  UKMO might be reserved for a reason, it wouldn’t be the first time.   

[LRD]

I don't think the UKMO is an especially bad run or a huge outlier compared to the other models

It just looks a little bit slower to get to what the ECM and GFS get to by about day 8. MetO might be a couple of days delay. Pressure looks as though it is rising in Greenland at 144

I wonder what MOGREPS says. We used to have someone post on here who could tell us that 

Edited December 3, 2019 by LRD

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Have to disagree mate until the UKMO on board I would not start waxing down the sledge just yet seen it many times GFS and ECM say yes and UKMO stubenly  says no.All very nice to look at though.

C.S

BBC forecaster must have dismissed UKMO model with the forecast for next week..

But yes, i don't disagree with what you say but UKMO is very isolated this evening so with weighting of evidence i think the 00z run will backtrack..

We don't have long to wait to find out ..

[Optimus Prime]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM mean T240:

  Would have liked to see more purples in the vortex on the Siberian side, mind. 

But isn't that just a result of the Siberian air mass moving to the European side of the arctic (and then eventually onwards to the British Isles and NW Europe)

Some big positive anomalies due over Siberia next week.

[swfc]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

BBC forecaster must have dismissed UKMO model with the forecast for next week..

But yes, i don't disagree with what you say but UKMO is very isolated this evening so with weighting of evidence i think the 00z run will backtrack..

We don't have long to wait to find out ..

They have a forecast for next week nws ???

[stripeyfox]

13 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

0.004 ! cant wait

That's a day off if you're a teacher!!

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Here is the ECM mean, and me likes, the downward trend continues... Over to you 18Z.

[Winter Hill]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

They have a forecast for next week nws ???

Apparently snow showers with biting cold wind 

[The Northern Ramper]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

In the met office video they talk about the model runs and likelihood of where the jet will be if anyone's interested, they actually mention the GFS 6z as well.

That has to be a first

[mb018538]

Looks good on the ECM - need lots of pieces to fall our way...but with 850s the right side of -5c, as well as very low 500mb heights, you can bet we’d be seeing decent amounts of snow at low levels in 10 days time. Fingers crossed for tomorrow and it doesn’t flatten out.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Ramp said:

That has to be a first

It was only because of a person asking a question.