Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Chesil View]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Clearly EC closer to GFS at 144- 

Hopefully UKMET is the outlier ...

Tricky bit at 168,will she disrupt?

Yes she will

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

168 Snow for midlands north along the slider

Was about to say that.          Over to weather.us a little later to see how that plays out frame by frame

Edited December 3, 2019 by booferking

[Purga]

ICON anybody?

And not to mention 'slider' ECM at it as well

Spot the ball difference !

Edited December 3, 2019 by Purga

[The PIT]

Pretty similar GFS and ECM at T168 perhaps the ECM slightly more to the east than the GFS. However it's got to get T96 without any downgrades so I wouldn't get excited yet.

[Ice Day]

ECM and GFS at 168 (GFS first).  Dare I say the ECM looks better!?!?!

     

Edited December 3, 2019 by Ice Day

[Met4Cast]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Was about to say that.          Over to weather.us a little later to see how that plays out frame by frame

Yup - Certainly a snowy slider on the northern edge of the low

[Spah1]

ECM 192

[tight isobar]

Neat profile...

And the Pacific punch adding the flavour!!..

A good mid range ecm with plenty of opportunities..and half decent placements..and a shift looking on for scandi also!!

[Allseasons-Si]

The jma at 168 is at it too.

 

[Chesil View]

ECM out 192 and following gfs so far.

[Mike Poole]

ECM third op run today to punch the vortex in two places, from the Pacific, and of course from the Atlantic!  T192, and it's good for cold here:

But then the vortex is now firmly on the Scandi side.  

 

[SMU]

ECM is a bank 192 >>> 216 & 240 are already set to be fine - the polar heights forcing the vortex out the pole.

Every model is agreed except the UKMO.

So please give it one more day....

[Jordan S]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The jma at 168 is at it too.

 

Was about to post that one

The gfs does seem pretty consistent on next week's broader pattern with colder air in situ over the country with low pressure systems taking a more southerly track. Remaining unsettled. 

Putting the Ecmwf and Gfs together.. 

Shows the southerly tracking jetstream well. 

Edited December 3, 2019 by jordan smith

[BlueHedgehog074]

The NAVGEM 12Z, at 168 and 180 hours, shows Low Pressure from the West in the Atlantic slipping over, and to the South of, the UK. So supporting some kind of slider scenario. High Pressure amplifying behind it in the mid and Western Atlantic.

 

The 850 hPa temperatures would probably be a bit colder than that if it occurred, but don’t feel the NAVGEM is modelling the 850 hPa temperatures particularly accurately.

Would probably go on to show a colder attack from the North for more areas of the UK if it went out further (and providing that Low to the South-West of the UK was to sufficiently push far enough to the South-East of the island into the nearby continent). 

[northwestsnow]

Am i allowed to ramp like a deranged moron on this thread?

EC is looking good !!

[Ali1977]

Mighty cold surface temps again, especially Scotland. But by 240 everywhere I reckon 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

12 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

She's sliding...

exciting maybe but anniversary of this! great slider for here, too far north for here on this run, but tend to shift south nearer time

[Anti-Mild]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM is a bank 192 >>> 216 & 240 are already set to be fine - the polar heights forcing the vortex out the pole.

Every model is agreed except the UKMO.

So please give it one more day....

The UKMO will fall into line, and then as was ever the case 1 of the other 2 will lose faith in itself. You read it here first

[northwestsnow]

Guess Feb answered my question lol...

 

EC is fabulous this evening.

It better not be leading me up the garden path , again..

[Allseasons-Si]

Cold incoming at 216,

what a chart,pv to our NE ready to pounce.

[Man With Beard]

Leaving aside the potential for snow - isn't it remarkable to see both the GFS and ECM consistently producing this runner low at beyond D8? 

Typically the models struggle with height rises / separation over the Atlantic but even so, the key profile means a rising chance of a short sharp injection of cold from midweek onwards. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

An awful lot of LRF fails very early at this rate.......ECM 12z better....yep better than 00z.  UKMO is not bad....it’s edging it’s way towards the cold evolution.  You know the rhetoric, Displlaced PV to NE the main player, not HLB.  Buckle up....

 

BFTP

Edited December 3, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[tight isobar]

Ecm going for wrap of heights....

What viewing!!.

With the concept of bringing those craved deeper uppers!!!=

Winters here!!!!!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Yes NWS, it's fine to get excited... Like big kids ain't we. So far so good.... Some fab 12z ensembles to boot... Hoping UKMO is quick to join the party... Out of reactions, but just a message to say, absolutely brilliant posts on here right now, covering a potentially colder spell in coming.... Ohhhhh yehhhhh. 

[Mapantz]

Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

An awful lot of LRF fails very early at this rate.......

We're three days in to Winter...