Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Gowon]

9 minutes ago, weirpig said:

It is        of course  for me as in most runs  ecm is the main man  get that onboard at 144h  then we are in business   

Nah.. 144h isn't reliable at all. A dreaded shortwave will spawn in the wrong place as soon as we get into hi res and drive us all crazy.. We've seen it happen so many time over the years.

[Methuselah]

Not exactly the ensemble-set I was hoping to see...

   

   

And I'd hate to see all that precipitation go to waste!

[Badgers01]

Have we ever had a significant cold spell without UKMO on board - until it falls in line or otherwise it’s far from certain ?! 

[SMU]

ECM 120

[Spah1]

Just now, Badgers01 said:

Have we ever had a significant cold spell without UKMO on board - until it falls in line or otherwise it’s far from certain ?! 

No way GFS is right and UKMO is wrong. 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120

Looks more GFS than UKMO to me ..

[Tim Bland]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

No way GFS is right and UKMO is wrong. 

Unless ECM backs UkMo I’m not too worried 

[Djdazzle]

Even if ECM agrees with GFS, it’s all still FI. Let’s get it to T96 first.

[The PIT]

5 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

Have we ever had a significant cold spell without UKMO on board - until it falls in line or otherwise it’s far from certain ?! 

Too far out for the UKMO at the moment. If the ECM is onboard I wouldn't worry about the UKMO as that will probably show a similar idea once it's within the time frame of T144

Then it's the march to T96 hopefully without any of the usual downgrades.

Edited December 3, 2019 by The PIT

[feb1991blizzard]

In the met office video they talk about the model runs and likelihood of where the jet will be if anyone's interested, they actually mention the GFS 6z as well.

[Mike Poole]

ECM says game on at T120, amplification going strong, compared with flat UKMO at same time:

[Cold Winter]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

No way GFS is right and UKMO is wrong. 

Have to say that I (sadly) have more faith in UKMO in winter scenarios after the last few years, it's often been the one to keep us all in check!  Here's hoping the others are onto something but I'd be very cautious at this stage...

[Weathizard]

Big 3, re: strength of the Atlantic ridge building, UKMO flat, ECM middle.

Edited December 3, 2019 by Weathizard

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM 120

Spot on

 

 BFTP

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Big 3, GFS looks like the clear odd one out re: strength of the Atlantic ridge building.

Really?or did u mean ukmo is the odd one out!!theres only one that looks the odd one out there and thats clearly the ukmo!!

[Allseasons-Si]

144 ecm

.....but we need the UKMO to come on board in the morning.

[Spah1]

ECM 144

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM says game on at T120, amplification going strong, compared with flat UKMO at same time:

Don’t worry about the initial amplification, that’s not what kicks this off long term...UKMO T180 would be very nice indeed imo

 

BFTP

[Ali1977]

ECM clearly supporting the GFS, now we need to see how the slide happens. 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Ali1977

[Mike Poole]

ECM T144, comparing now with GFS:

Not quite as amplified here, let's see what happens next.

[northwestsnow]

Clearly EC closer to GFS at 144- 

Hopefully UKMET is the outlier ...

Tricky bit at 168,will she disrupt?

[SMU]

ECM day 10 4 days ago V the 6 day today

remarkable consistency

[SMU]

168 Snow for midlands north along the slider

[Allseasons-Si]

She's sliding...

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM clearly supporting the GFS, now we need to see how the slide happens. 

I’d use the word “slippy” , fantastic . Cold spell firming up nicely next week.