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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, to say I have my doubts about that GFS 12z is an understatement. 

If it even remotely comes off. Every Professional long range forecast and every seasonal model would be wrong. 

Pretty much like last year!! Much to my disappointment then but joy now    

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Great run. Shame it’s snowless for most of England (south of Leeds) but we would have to be incredibly unlucky to miss at least 1 decent snow fall. Lines up a frigid lead up to Christmas!

8D1EA147-AB51-4E03-AB54-4C8DB289D9BD.png

BA90BF6C-3C72-4B9F-81DA-C6826E682F8C.png

You jest? h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png:oldgrin:

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS Op V Mean

144

gfsnh-0-144.png?12gensnh-21-1-144.png

192

gfsnh-0-192.png?12gensnh-21-1-192.png

288

gensnh-21-1-288.pnggfsnh-0-288.png?12

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
16 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hope it ends  on a bang. England is about the only country in Europe without snow cover  

FC633D1D-BDB5-4CBC-9575-DA3298E3F138.png

Get the cold in first

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
8 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That was an amazing run . I’m buzzing . 
The beast now incoming at the end of the run . 

915566A7-F918-4B00-A988-C7774B063322.png

1D35D755-A737-4859-A3A3-79D37310664B.png

C73C2ACE-C7B5-416A-8909-8432DED213A7.png

202C6083-0AFC-4A40-8CD8-30F2843D2BF0.png

Crazy run.........

If only. Anyway, still look at the NH profile at the end. Anywhere remotely near this and the pros will be hiding under the salt.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

It's quite epic via gfs 12z..which comes 2nd in verification in sister runs..

And let's face it we've been saying minimal wedge placement..and cell exactions mean possible major uturn in forecast perplexion..

So it's possibly as right as it is WRONG.

Great evolution...and why not indeed... not a million miles from some embarrasing *LRFs...

Again..'perhaps'!!

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Just to keep us grounded - the control in FI is horrific for coldies!! 

C8CB8FAA-E34B-49D7-9636-53E581C86D92.png

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

GEM going for back edge snow next Thursday pm-Friday am

image.thumb.png.0fad980d0d4e45d8acddffa3315225e6.png

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
22 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You jest? h500slp.png  h850t850eu.png:oldgrin:

It’s a very cold run no doubt, but for most of England it’s snowless. As I said though we would be very unlucky not see snow in such cold air with those lows floating around. FWIW i’d bank this run though given the chance! Fingers crossed for a good ECM ..

Edited by Tim Bland
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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
29 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes T120 - If the system in the atlantic goes under the main low it all collapses...

 

Thank you! one would sense then EC120 / EC144 ( with its  strong reputation for accuracy ) in about 1 hour is crucial on this!  – time to  pour a little stiffener to settle the nerves... looks like a S**T or bust moment is upon us in about 60 mins gang…

Edited by TSNWK
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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

Wow, exciting 2nd half to that run!!!

Still showing a lot of snow middle of next week for Scotland and the north of England, but it's the eye-catching finale with the Scandinavian High and Beast from the East (where's TEITS?!) which will catch the eye.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
26 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Great run. Shame it’s snowless for most of England (south of Leeds) but we would have to be incredibly unlucky to miss at least 1 decent snow fall. Lines up a frigid lead up to Christmas!

8D1EA147-AB51-4E03-AB54-4C8DB289D9BD.png

BA90BF6C-3C72-4B9F-81DA-C6826E682F8C.png

fantasy chart but not snowless, should be widespread snow off north sea, away from W Wales

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS 12z look good again..

Edging closer..

image.thumb.png.cb7dbd4c96eb0988f84bc5eb24af7297.png

It is        of course  for me as in most runs  ecm is the main man  get that onboard at 144h  then we are in business   

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS 12z look good again..

Edging closer..

image.thumb.png.cb7dbd4c96eb0988f84bc5eb24af7297.png

Is this the slide or not slide zone - either way all routes seem to head cold anyway. 

7F690C19-F3DE-4B7F-A274-478DEF8DA5DE.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
41 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Great run. Shame it’s snowless for most of England (south of Leeds) but we would have to be incredibly unlucky to miss at least 1 decent snow fall. Lines up a frigid lead up to Christmas!

8D1EA147-AB51-4E03-AB54-4C8DB289D9BD.png

BA90BF6C-3C72-4B9F-81DA-C6826E682F8C.png

Not that it matters at this point as it’s a while off but I’m pretty sure if we get to this point as the models are showing there’s no way that south of Leeds will be dry lol. Wind coming in from the north east with low pressure in the south east there will be showers pushing well in land at the very least.

id just be happy to get to this point first and then see where the surprises come from as I’m sure there will be many

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Posted
  • Location: West London
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold, snow, frost, fog. Summer: Sunny, N winds + clear skies.
  • Location: West London
20 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

It’s a very cold run no doubt, but for most of England it’s snowless. As I said though we would be very unlucky not see snow in such cold air with those lows floating around. FWIW i’d bank this run though given the chance! Fingers crossed for a good ECM ..

If the cold comes in anything like the runs are showing, I wouldn't worry about the detail as many a feature will pop up at short notice. Always a lottery where and when but fun to see churn out nonetheless. Long may it continue. Get that cold in! 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Ecm goes with gfs at 96 hours!!little low forms at 96 hours near the eastern states like the gfs!!ukmo does not have it at all!ukmo big outlier early judging from the ecm 96 hour chart!!could still go tits up!!

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