Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS, look at the extended, entrenched deep cold air, with mote troughs coming from west with.....yep 850s at -6 meeting -8 . A very special cold run.  I’m well happy with 12z.....UKmo included as imo its improved for cold chances

 

BFTP

[ALL ABOARD]

Even at 312 there's only one way that low is going slideeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

 

[Ali1977]

And it doesn’t warm up, crazy run. This will blow the METO seasonal model out the water, CET very cold no quick return to normal temps!! 

[SMU]

Whos breaking out the feb 1996 charts at 312 / 324

Edited December 3, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO quite flat compared to ICON T120:

UKMO? Rubbish model...Bin it!

Edited December 3, 2019 by Ed Stone

[SLEETY]

Big snow event at the end coming up,with that slider low incoming.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Whos breaking out the feb 1996 charts at 312 / 324

 < GFS 12z

 < 6th February 1996

[Tim Bland]

Hope it ends  on a bang. England is about the only country in Europe without snow cover  

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Big snow event at the end coming up,with that slider low incoming.

Is that a Scandy HP forming? 

[TSNWK]

Great charts - but for many we have the knocks, the doubts of seeing it all before over the years - is there anything within  120 - 144 that gives us the confidence that there is tipping point as such which if it were to  materialize  enables the rest of the run?

 

[Mucka]

It would be lovely to see something like GFS FI come off, rather chilly and an amazing synoptic.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Is that a Scandy HP forming? 

It is you know, Scandy high forming, bring on the beast!!

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Great charts - but for many we have the knocks, the doubts of seeing it all before over the years - is there anything within  120 - 144 that gives us the confidence that there is tipping point as such which if it were to  materialize  enables the rest of the run?

 

Yes T120 - If the system in the atlantic goes under the main low it all collapses...

 

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

I think  some/many? people  have the view that the current forecast behaviour of the jet stream is very unusual and that it may well be linked to the  warming in the stratosphere (apparently  not caused technically by an SSW),  which is currently observed. This warning  gives a possible route to explain the current apparent 'unusual behaviour' of the  weather forecast models.

The stratosphere firmly in the driving seat on this episode; seems almost instantaneous response through all layers. This is why Canadian warmings were/are associated with cold weather west Europe ... Jet has departed USA to winter in the Caribbean !! Maybe ozone is the driver, perhaps echo from last winter or a low solar response. Whatever, no surprise to see surface charts when the big wheel up yonder looks like this.

[seabreeze86]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Is that a Scandy HP forming? 

It sure is  an astonishing run from the GFS . The old saying wedges mean sledges

[Ali1977]

Mean at 192 looking very nice.

[Mucka]

If GFS ensembles are to be believed this is a long way from done, but then we already knew that.

A real mixed bag with anything from cold and wintry to insanely stormy

Edited December 3, 2019 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

GFS is indeed a splendid run.

Will be an interesting EC this evening, one feels it will be more UKMO than GFS, so it will perhaps give us a flavor of where UKMO as heading.(Still think it will be to a good place for the UK).

[bluearmy]

Interesting to see that scandi ridge forming ... its the trend of the day and was a reasonable cluster on the extended eps earlier

 

[Mapantz]

The same rules apply to this thread as they did in the old one. If it's to moan about no snow in your back yard, please post it in the Winter moans/ramps thread.

Thanks.

[mountain shadow]

Well, to say I have my doubts about that GFS 12z is an understatement. 

If it even remotely comes off. Every Professional long range forecast and every seasonal model would be wrong. 

[ICE COLD]

That was an amazing run . I’m buzzing . 
The beast now incoming at the end of the run . 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Interesting to see that scandi ridge forming ... its the trend of the day and was a reasonable cluster on the extended eps earlier

 

[Guest]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, to say I have my doubts about that GFS 12z is an understatement. 

If it even remotely comes off. Every Professional long range forecast and every seasonal model would be wrong. 

To be fair that last part isn't that unlikely. Seasonal models in winter are largely useless.

But yes, the GFS op is wild and wonderful and probably on the sherry a little bit. Lovely to see what our synoptics down the line *could* achieve though!

[Tim Bland]

Great run. Shame it’s snowless for most of England (south of Leeds) but we would have to be incredibly unlucky to miss at least 1 decent snow fall. Lines up a frigid lead up to Christmas!