Model output discussion - Winter has arrived and the hunt for cold is on

[Paul]

Here we go with a fresh model discussion thread - the plan of action is the same as ever, so please keep the discussion in here to the models. 

For non model related chat and banter, please use the Winter chat, moans and ramps thread.

Not a fan of the cold hunting rollercoaster at this time of year? There's a new thread for you to use.
One change we do have as of today is a new thread - this one is a space for those who perhaps don't enjoy the rollercoaster ride that the model discussion becomes in Winter, and would prefer to chat about the current and upcoming weather in a quieter, maybe less cold slanted discussion. 

If that's you, please head here:
Current and future weather - nowcasting, models and teleconnections - early Winter

Interested in teleconnections and their impacts?
Head to the teleconnections discussion

If you're wanting to learn more about the weather and meteorology, it's definitely worth taking a look at our new Learning and Research area.

Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
UKV (Extra subscribers)
GFS
GEFS Ensembles
ECMWF
ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
Fax
GEM
GFS Hourly

Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

[mountain shadow]

Crucial UKMET run coming up. It wasn't quite on board this morning. 

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Crucial UKMET run coming up. It wasn't quite on board this morning. 

Like you said a really crucial set of runs coming up we need to UKMO to join the rest of the group you just get that feeling even that rouge one theres always that chance of the pack joining it.

At least now its starting to come into a reliable time frame     

[booferking]

First out of the blocks icon and its a good start to the 12z cold air closer low sliding.

 

12Z V 00Z Below

[karlos1983]

Just checking....What are we determining as reliable time frame? 

D6? 

 

Almost a week away? Asking for a friend

Edited December 3, 2019 by karlos1983

[booferking]

ICON big move towards GFS.

Edited December 3, 2019 by booferking

[Iceaxecrampon]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Just checking....What are we determining as reliable time frame? 

D6? 

 

Almost a week away?

No - I don't think there is ever a right time for cross model agreement until nearly in "nowcast" territory.

But looking at the temp ensembles they're only going one way after the recent (and this weekends) double figure rises.

In fact Sunday's weather will seem that a these charts are a bit on the bonkers side and won't verify at all.

(I hope they will......)

[Midlands Ice Age]

I was a half way through this post when I was trapped by the locking of the old Forum.

I think  some/many? people  have the view that the current forecast behaviour of the jet stream is very unusual and that it may well be linked to the  warming in the stratosphere (apparently  not caused technically by an SSW),  which is currently observed. This warning  gives a possible route to explain the current apparent 'unusual behaviour' of the  weather forecast models.

This is produced, IMO,  by  a very large amount of 'wave induced' Ozone currently appearing in the Northern atmospheres. 

 I have been monitoring this for the last 2 to 3 weeks on the Arctic ice and snow forum.

I have looked back and can see no similar large wave breaking outbreaks  such as this,  where clearly Ozone appears to be responsible. 

It seems to be a very plausible way of getting the 'apparent'  warming into the Arctic stratosphere.

I enclose the latest NH Ozone charts, which show the ongoing train of Ozone starting up over the Himalaya,and then building up in concentration as they cross Asia on there way to the North pole, and then drifting into North America,

I

 

Charts I produced in the previous forum  show this 'warming' displacing and elongating the Polar Vortex.

The next few days will show whether this is the cause of the current 'unusual' characteristics of the weather outlook, as being expressed by many on this forum..

MIA   

 

 

Edited December 3, 2019 by Midlands Ice Age

[Iceaxecrampon]

Here we go with the GFS 12Z 

[Mike Poole]

ICON  with the cold evolution very much in play here, T180, end of the run.

This is going to be fascinating, couldn't comment on the earlier runs as I was at work, but as others have said UKMO output important, but given it only goes to T144, will need to be benchmarked against other runs, I think.  I also have some observations about the polar vortex, which I will write about later...

[StretfordEnd1996]

ICON has been highly regarded by some in the last few weeks - while I'm still a bit sceptical about it for what it's worth it does look similar to the GFS solution by D8 with the uppers of -5 or colder starting to roll in eventually - notable is how the jet stream is very far South

[SMU]

Yes the ICON settles the nerves - just needs a smidge more amplification early doors to get that slider a bit more acute.

Eyes down for UKMO / GFS - Transition will now be at * T120 *

[Timmytour]

9 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

I was a half way through this post when I was trapped by the locking of the old Forum.

I think  some/many? people  have the view that the current forecast behaviour of the jet stream is very unusual and that it may well be linked to the  warming in the stratosphere (apparently  not caused technically by an SSW),  which is currently observed. This warning  gives a possible route to explain the current apparent 'unusual behaviour' of the  weather forecast models.

This is produced, IMO,  by  a very large amount of 'wave induced' Ozone currently appearing in the Northern atmospheres. 

 I have been monitoring this for the last 2 to 3 weeks on the Arctic ice and snow forum.

I have looked back and can see no similar large wave breaking outbreaks  such as this,  where clearly Ozone appears to be responsible. 

It seems to be a very plausible way of getting the 'apparent'  warming into the Arctic stratosphere.

I enclose the latest NH Ozone charts, which show the ongoing train of Ozone starting up over the Himalaya,and then building up in concentration as they cross Asia on there way to the North pole, and then drifting into North America,

I

 

Charts I produced in the previous forum  show this 'warming' displacing and elongating the Polar Vortex.

The next few days will show whether this is the cause of the current 'unusual' characteristics of the weather outlook, as being expressed by many on this forum..

MIA   

 

 

Could it be that the activity generated by sunspots that hurls towards the earth is something that would normally impede the progress of this ozone?

 

[Tim Bland]

Snow for the midlands Tues night on Icon I would have thought. Certainly on the back edge of this front (and anywhere with altitude )which is in sub -4c uppers 

[joggs]

16 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

I was a half way through this post when I was trapped by the locking of the old Forum.

I think  some/many? people  have the view that the current forecast behaviour of the jet stream is very unusual and that it may well be linked to the  warming in the stratosphere (apparently  not caused technically by an SSW),  which is currently observed. This warning  gives a possible route to explain the current apparent 'unusual behaviour' of the  weather forecast models.

This is produced, IMO,  by  a very large amount of 'wave induced' Ozone currently appearing in the Northern atmospheres. 

 I have been monitoring this for the last 2 to 3 weeks on the Arctic ice and snow forum.

I have looked back and can see no similar large wave breaking outbreaks  such as this,  where clearly Ozone appears to be responsible. 

It seems to be a very plausible way of getting the 'apparent'  warming into the Arctic stratosphere.

I enclose the latest NH Ozone charts, which show the ongoing train of Ozone starting up over the Himalaya,and then building up in concentration as they cross Asia on there way to the North pole, and then drifting into North America,

I

 

Charts I produced in the previous forum  show this 'warming' displacing and elongating the Polar Vortex.

The next few days will show whether this is the cause of the current 'unusual' characteristics of the weather outlook, as being expressed by many on this forum..

MIA   

 

 

Very interesting, thanks. 

[SMU]

UKMO is poor at 120 & 144 is awful > A real concern

Edited December 3, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Mike Poole]

UKMO quite flat compared to ICON T120:

[The Real Snowman]

4 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Could it be that the activity generated by sunspots that hurls towards the earth is something that would normally impede the progress of this ozone?

 

Seems a very plausible explanation. I’m sure some research will exist or if not it’s another element to add to the vast plethora of factors that equate to the weather pattern in play (notwithstanding seasonal ‘average’ ‘norms’). Fascinating UKMO and GFS coming up but let’s be fair they always are!

[swfc]

Just now, shaky said:

Is that 120 hours steve or 144 hours!!!?!!man imagine if ukmo trumps ecm and gfs both!that would be something!

Looks pretty much like this morning imo at 144 hrs.

[booferking]

Just now, shaky said:

Is that 120 hours steve or 144 hours!!!?!!man imagine if ukmo trumps ecm and gfs both!that would be something!

Its not called the king slayer for nothing its done it many times in the past.

[Chesil View]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO is poor at 120 & 144 is awful > A real concern

Judging by their latest 6-15 day outlook I don't think the Meto will be paying much attention to today's  raw.

[StretfordEnd1996]

I'm not overly worried yet about the UKMO - it going out to +144 hours (D6) - whilst it isn't as cold on this day as the GFS or ICON it still wouldn't by any means mean that by D7-8 the jet stream won't have sunk South as per the other solutions. It just doesn't show that initial promise.

Still - hoping the GFS doesn't head down that route!

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Its not called the king slayer for nothing its done it many times in the past.

Its simple here

The GFS / ECM / ICON get amplified at 120 & low exiting the states recurves quickly North behind the main low SW or Greenland >> Forcing it SE

Where the UKMOi is flat so the system goes underneath meaning that parent low sits in situ over Greenland.

* 12z GFS is the same as the ICON *

[Weathizard]

Not to jump the gun but the GFS is looking a lot flatter at day 5 compared to this morning

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Judging by their latest 6-15 day outlook I don't think the Meto will be paying much attention to today's  raw.

Hmm. They say “A low risk of snow on the northern edge of rain bands” this doesn’t sound like the 06z GFS run to me