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Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Looking ahead to the ext period there is a general agreement of hgih pressure ridging into south east Greenland from mid Atlantic flanked by troughs in the NW of same and and one south into Europe from another lobe. But there is no agreement on the amplification and alignment of these features so until this is resolved further comment would be an indulgence

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8032000.thumb.png.2671e20d0b0debbd6f3d6d563c43893b.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8032000.thumb.png.2e6eaf9a0b421428fdb3f19a37619b49.png814day_03.thumb.gif.533fec276330fb6c42107a791284ada2.gif

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Not a lot different to report so a quick glance at EC weeklies update for the first couple of weeks of May

01 . 08

Some pronounced ridging NW North America adjacent to a weak tpv northern Russia to Canada with negative anomalies over much of the Atlantic in a relatively innocuous westerly upper flow. Changeable leaning towards a N/S split?

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-8896000.thumb.png.5979648bb63a216d1091f8062baa18a0.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-8896000.thumb.png.9ecd129ef05ae703557c39d16c8ce124.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-8896000.thumb.png.6c77e2dfd6cc054706a866857d2d258e.png

09 > 16

Losing the negative anomalies in the Atlantic with a  suggestion of the subtropical high amplifying a tad in mid Atlantic and also a suggestion of a ridge into SE Greenland The upper flow abating  so maybe less changeable but still leaning towards a N/S split

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-9587200.thumb.png.ffa1daf32c7c3f1f464f9c02155f0f82.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-9587200.thumb.png.6c929b35eefbd24610ad5781a2dedf79.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-9587200.thumb.png.9b8a1779ae0527361ebe3889c3f4af04.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Tomorrow we start to see the warmth build once again over the majority of England.

On Wednesday, it will be dry and sunny for most, with northern Scotland being the exception with a chance of some rain.

ukprec.thumb.png.3c15a48325cf3e7666fbb14644973ddb.png   ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.f26f5ff682a413ee0c32d8bbb10305a6.png

Thursday will be the peak of the warmth, with temperatures around the low-twenties likely in the SE. The heat might spark off some showers or thunderstorms in NW France that could drift up to the UK

1591045559_ukprec(1).thumb.png.9d460da817708b4dc321a6f6a5e5a441.png   10715732_ukmaxtemp(1).thumb.png.b1d5c1babac9ce3ad4b7035ff05208fd.png

Friday has a band of heavy rain pushing northwards in the south, meanwhile northern parts should see some spells of sunshine

1268678407_ukprec(2).thumb.png.abec52cbeda3a0189939597c3dd8bf52.png   44893519_ukmaxtemp(2).thumb.png.91ab5d9f28cb286c807fdece222a3c29.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm has a trough breaking from the tpv lobe east of Newfoundland at t120 and this develops to dominated mid Atlantic by t144 and push associated fronts against the ridge over the UK

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7297600.thumb.png.2902c34a2593d02d7f0d7e7f2aad6d25.png120.thumb.png.675d1923ff38cb963ed87742e85b12f6.png

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7384000.thumb.png.be62a80ed88a7c075f569a65c65f5198.png144.thumb.png.a779d66f6c3c378273a7f0701c280712.png

But further amplification of the subtropical high disrupts this which promotes the trough over western Europe and sets up the easterly over the southern half of the UK

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7427200.thumb.png.594eb5dd2ca9e0534f523dcd5509d035.png156.thumb.png.ed27b86add2de2b7f49daf47a64bfd30.pngecmwf-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-7427200.thumb.png.fc153517fc38860b60ab3ded14efc18e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and sat image

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-6908800.thumb.png.f18c044db5c7b5020adfccc81cc27166.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.04d852feafe9ff2c0c89e817ffb2adf1.gifsat.thumb.JPG.0cf01a44408909c215f85b3c7267d1cc.JPG

A weak trough in mid Atlantic connecting the major troughs to the north and south whilst high pressure dominates over the UK

After a frosty start a fine day for most and warming up again but come cloud in the north and possibly a touch of drizzle in the far NW as the weak cold front slips south east

PPVE89.thumb.gif.d901e5efcd648272b8f4ce239604852e.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-6973600.thumb.png.75105d1835eb3a95e1430251dca29d78.png

A clear night in most areas but the cold front and thicker cloud will move further south

PPVG89.thumb.gif.a11627bb67ae74f99e1553b4514445cf.gif

By Thursday the trough connection/energy distribution has pepped up the trough to the SW which has encroached the south west bringing some showery rain. Much of the rest of the country will remain sunny and quite warm, the exception being parts of Scotland and the NE where it will be cloudy and much cooler

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-7038400.thumb.png.52c1ea0c73c72672aa4624b21d76b3cd.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.be158d6344bb650bc4e2d05c86214dd5.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7060000.thumb.png.0400eb0df169e984905b788a7d638a40.png

By midday Friday further troughs tracking into the western Atlantic have put a squeeze on the ridge and the high cell moves north of Scotland whilst the low to the south gains more traction. Thus showery rain over Wales and southern/central England and again cooler down NE coastal regions

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7124800.thumb.png.53dd66526e2c579774218007f8c57686.pngPPVK89.thumb.gif.0568d360a60012f58219238391e949bd.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7146400.thumb.png.4f0aa455628b1f1d3abe9ba2c19e925c.png

Not a lot of change on Saturday

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7211200.thumb.png.9f9fdaee89398b0214a238e5d66f69e5.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.ff0b010cd92a32d986a009aed7a9dce4.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7232800.thumb.png.61115f49846de01d2d69521f2af04733.png

By Sunday the high cell and troughs have moved a tad east initiating a general easterly flow over the UK which will mainly be dry, perhaps the odd shower in the south, with some variation in the regional temps

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-7308400.thumb.png.b0907f393d0c3be39d06a52d3f6cedb0.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.51dcf64ecab16acd106046abbd913b3c.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7319200.thumb.png.0d52487ee5f3cc84b3454b54a8d67ca8.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

According to the gfs (keeping in mind there is rarely a smooth handover from the fax) over the next three days another extension of the tpv drops in the western Atlantic initiating further amplification of the subtropical high as the Atlantic low tracks east into Iberia. Thus the H/L north/south pattern continues pretty much for this period maintaining the easterly surface wind component. Generally staying dry and gradually warming up again with the usual caveats vis eastern coastal regions

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-7384000.thumb.png.9047c2a15e6699b4dc58c27c5f2d09ee.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-7470400.thumb.png.729b34c6e157e946185a9b7cd48b0444.pnggfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-7556800.thumb.png.1a3d0cea57238870559b088275bdcab0.png

132.thumb.png.fe63e026351ad39ad6913aab9da10bf1.png156.thumb.png.ea5b6d348fc719ea328397e87401f687.png180.thumb.png.e66b9dc615a13a2eba74d2153e952298.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Predictable the ecm is entirely different to the gfs Mon > Weds and is much closer to the fax midday Sunday

It makes a half hearted effort to track the Atlantic low east on Monday but another trough emerges from the eastern seaboard to phase with it Thus t he high pressure is pushed NE laving the UK in a quite strong south easterly

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-7384000.thumb.png.fe4e7a9a9a82efba3e737f5c87b0ac78.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-7470400.thumb.png.7b4837748bf3c15cb74a4fb472b8a758.png156.thumb.png.1c9da5bc0aaa299f9c5f2cc9a749c50a.png

But the channel is still open south of the UK to the energy flow running around the northern flank pf the high

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-7556800.thumb.png.363e931d41dca17c49e079edc5f95c42.pngecmwf-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-7556800.thumb.png.55f14f7684609f527aaa9723ccc959b7.png180.thumb.png.f56f15688d0ff1b05b384d3e339f623f.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ext anomalies along the lines indicated recently with the tpv looped across N. Canada > Arctic > northern Europe with the subtropical high amplifying in mid Atlantic into eastern Greenland. There is no agreement on the intensity and alignment of these major features and this is critical to the forthcoming surface analysis

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8118400.thumb.png.1cdb9ff4865859f991387847e6deb791.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-8118400.thumb.png.043ce52671d0b1f33fcdd90df2036dfa.png814day_03.thumb.gif.2b4df5687e03a1a70a0e0667c093dc8c.gif

The lower strat. this morning

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z50_anom-7772800.thumb.png.c2f1252f280f49dd4778650381b87519.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Thursday looks to be the warmest day this week with 20c+ around the London area. Some heavy showers can't be ruled out however near the SW corner

1072585630_ukprec(3).thumb.png.c47845766aaed686659cfcbb78ebc0f5.png   1589591030_ukmaxtemp(3).thumb.png.76e0e34b1b123fa9d865e8fb2ed24145.png

On Friday a band of rain associated with a front will move through southern areas during the afternoon. A bit cooler on Friday however.

238619807_ukprec(4).thumb.png.3654891a64dcbd190d4c09effc61d0a6.png   1265848149_ukmaxtemp(4).thumb.png.6e92a8ba7ee2c95437d7ad7034d8f26c.png

Saturday sees a similar day to Friday, with rain or showers in the south and cool and dry up north

1247012903_ukprec(5).thumb.png.63ad867e2aa329880ee0ca7e7dcccfec.png   1900858136_ukmaxtemp(5).thumb.png.28622cf146bfdff8232ea51ab65a5435.png

And then Sunday is almost the exact same picture once again for Friday and Saturday. More rain or showers to come in the south meanwhile the north will miss out on any rain and it will be cooler in these areas.

796198391_ukprec(6).thumb.png.711c5864d482a48e7fa233c0ecd94ff1.png   1679880348_ukmaxtemp(6).thumb.png.a9d8f6d57101a2b0cca5c1331010e161.png

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

By t120 the ecm this evening has established high pressure to the north east and low over western Europe and thus an easterly flow over the UK with a negatively tilted trough in mid Atlantic

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7384000.thumb.png.ed93b9274251a544dbbf10cebd1cfc73.png120.thumb.png.2c803d337ccb43fc63a552495e1a1bb2.png

Over the next couple of days the broad swathe of high pressure from the NW > NE is rock solid as the Atlantic trough phases with the trough to the south and another trough tracks into mid Atlantic All of which results in the surface wind veering a tad and strengthening

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7470400.thumb.png.5e712771173865ff2d676d1cd31b6de5.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7556800.thumb.png.8ed7653548aa80ae4dc7f875d85ee1ea.pngecmwf-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-7556800.thumb.png.8ee97c8f8efd2b4f0cb46819eb1610e1.png

144.thumb.png.414182c6089286042a7b91e2c1da9d6f.png168.thumb.png.7a08e1099c39230e474ae0b1c58ab4c7.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

Most areas will have a clear start to the  day and it will remain that way but cloud with the odd patch of drizzle will persist over Scotland and perhaps the NE coasts in the onshore drift and showery rain will track north in the south west courtesy pf the low pressure and associated troughs A warm day over Wales and England

PPVE89.thumb.gif.64a788ed13d778e5539f640d2af36c53.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7060000.thumb.png.2779ff8c89d3507b3323517dba367775.png

The cloud in the north will move a little further south and the showery rain a tad further north over Wales. Elsewhere a clear night

PPVG89.thumb.gif.8c5e89f7f07f7c9b6e9557f20f3e8bbc.gif

The occlusion tracking north will bring rain the Wales and southern England on Friday and becoming quite breezy whilst dry further north with the usual caveats re. the north east

PPVI89.thumb.gif.886c6f009d719f02d3c142e78c6f194e.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-precip_6hr_inch-7146400.thumb.png.3fae1bc79b23a31711d25dbf6b510f5b.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7146400.thumb.png.1cfec5fbf8e665f37a58aac9a80cebc5.png

Developments in the Atlantic over Friday through Saturday as a trough associated with the tpv tracks east and over the UK the occlusion is still around across England and Wales thus still a tad unsettled with sunny intervals and showers

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7211200.thumb.png.ee4ed3f8145f6861ab489fb2243d4be9.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.59127a5b4c8224554b7b987bc182b4f6.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.ddc599513223648f36f6385b9d6cf52f.gif

gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_6hr_inch-7222000.thumb.png.33ef74a71e251e62b9049f108e601ef9.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7232800.thumb.png.1df032a7ee6c7b452e85d33a1f647388.png

By Sunday the Atlantic trough has developed as the high cell moves north east and a shallow low pressure area is established to the south over western Europe , Still some cloud around over the UK, courtesy of the occlusion, but quite warm again in many areas but the usual caveats as the easterly regime becomes established

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7297600.thumb.png.6c8ab8108f511ff8c5da76ffe1cf41ef.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.594e301d2f8239c2b3fc0fad68087bb1.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7319200.thumb.png.8051a0830f4a0e8a0f58381c267fbc68.png

By Monday the Atlantic trough is taking on a negative tilt against the resolute block to the NE and is starting to phase with the European low  which peps up the easterly flow across the UK

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7384000.thumb.png.560df7eee61c6f3798004ac2cb41bc3a.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.eaec999c12d062553ef62cbddebf68c8.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-7405600.thumb.png.b4083606fb9a5580ba81bbcaf2ab82ab.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

It is difficult to know how much credence to give to the gfs for the beginning of next week without further information so to be treated with caution

In a nutshell it merges the Atlantic low with the low pressure over western Europe which promotes that, whilst at the same time developing another trough in the Iceland area which tracks east which shifts the position of the high cell. Thus by Weds/Thurs low pressure is resident over the UK All of this dependent on the trough developing east of Greenland

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7556800.thumb.png.8d9248da6c42f3d465bdfc6f91c49281.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7643200.thumb.png.b3d3d53a5bd50fb1fb0d69ee61d3c489.png

132.thumb.png.8ff080cfa52de3fafda64efaebdab1ae.png156.thumb.png.91bd6cb3b9e58bdd0868ca87237b574c.png180.thumb.png.6b56154df0dd10977633746d66e6d0b6.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

No big surprise that the ecm drastically differs from the gfs It develops the troughs to the NE and SE that by Thursday next week has consolidated the high pressure in the eastern Atlantic Obviously the detail for next week is a long way from a done deal

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7556800.thumb.png.7f68f8a0790b91554d4ced93041ba34f.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-7643200.thumb.png.ab95d094f59be3f0cb6d4966916285e8.pngecmwf-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-7643200.thumb.png.3e935b428976ae00643edace56c09261.png

132.thumb.png.8da685571c9e67731451e29f4dd50cf6.png156.thumb.png.e5a1888a89b6984ff47bb3d07aa976e5.png180.thumb.png.2845a8397dd51fbf6ea2c8320fd33f90.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

Can't say I like either idea as they both have winds off the damn N Sea. At this time of year that means lots of cloud and temperatures depressed, along with any strength making it feel even worse.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
27 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Can't say I like either idea as they both have winds off the damn N Sea. At this time of year that means lots of cloud and temperatures depressed, along with any strength making it feel even worse.

Quite John. These set ups are not good for eastern regions. Meanwhile Altocumulus with Castellanus aspirations down here this morning

altocumulus.thumb.jpg.b273aef0b8bcd5feccfc3b91876b11d2.jpgmet_images_aspx.thumb.png.17c93f333169d4bc299dcf4ef5842514.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
34 minutes ago, knocker said:

Quite John. These set ups are not good for eastern regions. Meanwhile Altocumulus with Castellanus aspirations down here this morning

altocumulus.thumb.jpg.b273aef0b8bcd5feccfc3b91876b11d2.jpgmet_images_aspx.thumb.png.17c93f333169d4bc299dcf4ef5842514.png

Blue sky here so a coffee outside to make the most of it, looks like cooler for a few days after today, hopefully with some suun, having to water now-what a change, then some folk say the weather is not interesting.

I'll go take a look at the anomaly charts!

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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

Can't say I like either idea as they both have winds off the damn N Sea. At this time of year that means lots of cloud and temperatures depressed, along with any strength making it feel even worse.

Hi John, I remember many a start to the cricket season up in East Yorkshire Wolds. Hated that wind off the North sea and still to this day, I think I have never been so cold in my life as fielding at Wetwang crickert ground in past Aprils !  Three sweaters were the order of the day. Anyway, back to today a nice warm and sunny April morning in these parts with the snow line starting to recede . No more NE ly for me now at this time of the year. Enjoy your sunshine , while it lasts and hope your keeping fighting fit.

 C

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The ecm starts to differ from the gfs around t96 so sticking with the ecm this evening

Through t120 > 168 the negatively tilted Atlantic trough disrupts as the subtropical high amplifies in mid Atlantic. And by so doing peps up the trough south of the UK which in turn boosts the south easterly flow for the first couple of days

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7470400.thumb.png.8c7fb8856107947e8e69f89723958b8b.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7556800.thumb.png.5b87aec39c7e0eaa17943f1c345ee945.pngecmwf-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-7556800.thumb.png.3e413926faf3e4c2c35eb78b7f45b198.png

120.thumb.png.5f5832540df306f8915fd726b7d85cbd.png144.thumb.png.edccf1666e70e574989c6f53d7ea74fe.png168.thumb.png.8374251cb6393c5aeb355ada9473f541.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire

Tonight we could see the chance of some showers or thunderstorms drifting up from France

ukprec.thumb.png.da851949171e598cc055d73f28ab1630.png

On Friday a band of heavy, perhaps thundery rain will drift up from France for England and Wales. The north on Friday will miss this rain and it will be partly cloudy in those areas.

1175609961_ukprec(1).thumb.png.5d705b3d57b3b818e8fb5c46fa18bc26.png   ukmaxtemp.thumb.png.5571c7f297eaac89f39caec744440f08.png

On Saturday another band of heavy or thundery rain will drift up from France for England and Wales. Into the afternoon as temperatures soar into the high teens for some places we could see some more showers of thunderstorms breaking out near the south coast

1132210249_ukprec(2).thumb.png.9cb55b60a594fc318dbefa27edfe94f2.png   1450731871_ukmaxtemp(1).thumb.png.0ee9f8b080a998f8e65991edc6624d68.png

Sunday is looking like the best day of the weekend with sunshine across the majority of the UK and temperatures climbing into the high teens for most areas, with perhaps the odd 20c in the south-east

874101203_ukprec(3).thumb.png.fff57d6342f69bfe9a9c51fa2b1aa597.png   2044487844_ukmaxtemp(2).thumb.png.c604e548b9fc47932a29ca3bf1f432ca.png

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    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
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