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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The NH profile of the ext EPS also pretty much as expected so a closer look at the North atlantic. And as can be seen the subtropical; high ridging north east north of the trough adjacent to NW Africa portends a period of more settled weather

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0083200.thumb.png.44c814eb9a14ecd87d48c0f1d1eacd0e.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-natl_wide-z500_anom_5day-0083200.thumb.png.6857303355c05505e651b8fa42616c15.png

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0083200.thumb.png.ccb06fc6195d26d24d6a42574fd251ee.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0083200.thumb.png.3a322cfbb0b9f0fc3cc87e961d8645a2.png

     

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    Differences opening up with model forecasts of MJO progression. ECM staying in the neutral zone whilst GEFS and JMA showing progression from Phase 6 into Phase 7. ECM  GEFS  JMA  Phase 7 is

    The intense amplification over North America with the Arctic plunge down the eastern half initiates downstream ridging of the subtropical high which simultaneously pumps up the jet.

    Quite a good illustration showing absolutely no correlation between the 850mb and surface temps in the relatively 'warm' airmass in an Autumn anticyclone

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The clusters this morning tend to support the ext mean in lessening the amplification of the subtropical high and thus a more fluid westerly pattern

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011300_240.thumb.png.01fb512f655368421d2be4a3ba6a1dcc.png

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011300_312.thumb.png.3ab14ae8ca7a2da1bdd853f94cf7962e.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011300_336.thumb.png.9528d79f1e591b3cbf711340f85e371f.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011300_360.thumb.png.5c366731edde6ace1afc94e95396ab68.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Haverfordwest Pembs
  • Location: Haverfordwest Pembs

    An interesting band of very heavy rain and associated lighting strikes currently running up through St Georges channel, an odd looking pattern to it as well.  Hope this is an appropriate section, I don't post very often.

    fsscr019.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    21 minutes ago, Avain said:

    An interesting band of very heavy rain and associated lighting strikes currently running up through St Georges channel, an odd looking pattern to it as well.  Hope this is an appropriate section, I don't post very often.

    fsscr019.png

    Yes that;s fine, It will likely be the fronts

    PPVA89.thumb.gif.87a1cc094da19a08a981c3e939e634e0.gifmeteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.b18d05f53db85f094c8c8981d16cbe63.jpg

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Haverfordwest Pembs
  • Location: Haverfordwest Pembs

    Ah, thanks Knocker, it just passed over us, very intense rain with some hail mixed in, but over in a couple of minutes. Quite interesting to see the event develop and unfold though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Apart from the NW looks like being a dry, if chilly, weekend with light winds which will be very welcome

    120.thumb.png.29530b6cdc0b71bc5ecf4a6a0159d0b2.png144.thumb.png.34453a6513ff527c9dd445b7a54ec53e.png

    gfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-9370400.thumb.png.a97aee550258713db28156062f931cc7.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-9456800.thumb.png.cf337d86db2889b76e8a57a6d07b9473.png

     

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The GEFS mean anomalies this evening still indicating that-after initial burst of amplification at the pattern transition (previously discussed) it later subsides in the ext period. Not a problem as this still portends a much more settled period with a suggestion a bit of a N/S split

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9780800.thumb.png.eeab56450443f16439b522338db07e12.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0126400.thumb.png.0701848cc2d41580aef0ae7916f2b498.png

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0126400.thumb.png.058c264ec79a80c432912d7e6e2f261a.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0126400.thumb.png.4faf4bf5810c5753900b956a51a64c6c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The ecm highlights the intriguing  battle between the east bound energy and the amplification at transition,  and the role of the cut off low

    ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-9435200.thumb.png.32517e13a82167e93a2298c8ae869c95.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-9521600.thumb.png.f09e06b58bdb93578d63c07b8933a39d.png

    144.thumb.png.478ea840c9a93c6a0374d22e8ddb39f3.png168.thumb.png.c7198a01483f8b0dbf99298c94182298.pngindex.thumb.png.b5c53cfc0c2ed7b2a68a70f5787ccd31.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The EPS mean anomalies indicate a not dissimilar theme as the GEFS with the initial amplification on transition, and then a change of orientation of the tpv over northern Russia and a slackening of same in the ext period. Stil portending a more settled period but tending more towards a N/S split

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9780800.thumb.png.234eaead1377d54d59e6a3317663ab68.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0126400.thumb.png.d75d8b493ea28cf6fdb9362e7118984b.png

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0126400.thumb.png.9285a19889537beb9879b1dc1d10f10a.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0148000.thumb.png.e6023faccf494ad460a37d440cc9b5c3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

    gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-8960000.thumb.png.1f62072b7dfa43faa6c015e96ae2aac7.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.613d6e9e3c3996caab829c35dc99d7b8.gif

    Apart from frequent squally and heavy showers most places will have a dry start to the day but the next frontal system is tracking quickly up from the south west and heavy rain will arrive in this region around 0900 and track north east across the country in the sequence warm front/warm sector/ cold front and accordingly introduce warmer air on it's travels. Snow could be a  feature in the north to fairly low levels when the warm front hits the colder air in situ. And once again gale force winds will effect some southern and central areas

    PPVE89.thumb.gif.e9d173507cefcaf333d86ef6f00795fb.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.89cea97adfa4956243c74da062fa158f.pngsfcgust_d02_18.thumb.png.4bed1cf3ad9e9bcfacf695d63a1ad444.pngsfcgust_d02_21.thumb.png.ff2c0176ed7989ae5ebe28a7b5768b99.pngsfcgust_d02_26.thumb.png.2d7f3a1fb29c6982d955286308ae1c8e.pngmeanreflec_d02_15.thumb.png.e1deff1980853881d074bd9d589e25b2.pngmeanreflec_d02_18.thumb.png.30fa65a67d1109732e9b814f32d9284b.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.33ca50c56d56f79ceb0719e65cb6d122.png

    Most of the rain will clear this evening apart from wintry showers over north west Scotland and rain will persist in the south east of England courtesy of the trailing cold front

    PPVG89.thumb.gif.d915296437e66070996c761e4785e961.gifprecip_d02_30.thumb.png.9d769c143884c2ec1874a271da09fd11.pngprecip_d02_38.thumb.png.7bcbb386fdf70381d15f8374a92b8245.png

    The cold front eventually clears south east leaving a breezy day with the odd shower for Wales and England but stronger winds with more persistent rain over Scotland which is still under the influence of Brendan.But notice a wave developing south west of Ireland

    PPVI89.thumb.gif.76dfc0eebd71e435b575807d364436a0.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.717742ff5d51f34361408afa6c4bdb4d.pngprecip_d02_46.thumb.png.ed7900de59be689502514efdb83fec56.png

    The wave will deepen and track north west to be NW Ireland by midday Thursday and the associated cold front will bring rain and quite strong winds to most areas through the day

    PPVJ89.thumb.gif.1d76a5374dfb4aec52f71666555923f0.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.4dc66d6011ccdef959befcff176b2321.gif

    gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_6hr_inch-9197600.thumb.png.160efbf47db59c8ddc18258f55b3e561.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-9197600.thumb.png.c9eaf38e7ee1c84e4fa9661d4b9b0a44.png

    We now come to the previously discussed transition with a lobe of the vortex dropping into the western Atlantic initiating downstream amplification and deconstructing the trough creating a cut off upper low to the south. So we are now entering a more settled period starting with some showers on Friday and a generally sunny day on Saturday with some frosty mornings

    gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-9305600.thumb.png.41f65e30b4e0c1bd607a0bbc3c3633db.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.9ac76df56fe59af3f2b674b50ae82293.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.4a181387d4b5468f76a626d1f6353c4b.gif

     

    gfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-9284000.thumb.png.1e3d2c20c291ba1352563cc10c46204d.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-9370400.thumb.png.fa04fc1eb6258a4d0e26711cbf7f546e.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Skipping the gfs detail for next week and moving on to the GEFS mean anomalies which are pretty much illustrating what has previously been discussed so keeping waffle to a minimum

    The temporary weakening of the Canadian vortex lobe facilitates am[amplification of the subtropical high north of the cut off low

    Further restructuring of the tpv reverse this in the ext period so that the much more settled period once again becomes changeable but not drastically so.

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9824000.thumb.png.6a037454ff4f740666151b8bf88eee28.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0169600.thumb.png.0b6abddb2c7f295c3156700069669ca4.png

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0256000.thumb.png.83d069a034fea3cfdc8af8e84afc4b5d.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0256000.thumb.png.1d2f06b3f330e798e53cf6aefe638276.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    A look at the EC weeklies update for the last two weeks of February

    14 > 21

    The tpv back over northern Canad with associated trough into the NW Atlantic

    Strong westerly upper flow exiting the eastern seaboard but with the subtropical high still retaining some influence in Europe perhaps still indicating a N/S split as the flow abates a tad in the east

    ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-2243200.thumb.png.270ca40125e332cb38ccc55fb20e1af7.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-2243200.thumb.png.b971fc31196854dc57c776bf81946983.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-2243200.thumb.png.0a27550b39953c413e11a792e32d9637.png

    21 > 28

    No significant change

    ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-2848000.thumb.png.6c69829a29520cae88988a62b5e115c7.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-2848000.thumb.png.d5626e8eeeb6d651a1f5358a5fc530a2.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-2848000.thumb.png.f8d7be0b7667c7820597306889220608.png

    ecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-ao-box-8873600.thumb.png.ef0d3659e0bbeff37452010638f217f5.pngecmwf-weeklies-all2-avg-nao-box-8873600.thumb.png.01e30730579380126005ebdbbe07bfee.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Quite foul here at the moment. Moderate rain, zilch vis and very gusty. The cold front still west of the Scilly's at 1400

     

    14.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.39bb2c73046074947ab2b4d44462273b.gif

     

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    According to this evening's GEFS mean anomalies the initial amplification (previously described and with which the models are having some trouble with the detail) will quickly subside in the ext period as the tpv and associated troughs restructure around Franz Joseph Land This would indicate a return to more unsettled conditions after a more settled interlude

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9867200.thumb.png.e3cf7299167f0d174fedd86d34054f38.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0212800.thumb.png.64e2798f93e41727cbdc1cfb3c7af7a9.png

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0299200.thumb.png.35ad15d262f94bc79d21f04965849329.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0320800.thumb.png.7cdb2ef21f1990c8dffac5b34b11bfc1.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The ecm det run has the high pressure pretty much in charge next week but starts to break down right at the end which is not unexpected. Will see what the EPS has to say shortly

    ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9867200.thumb.png.8d52acac2803211a542a5f47ae4fab95.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Although the direction of travel is similar the ext EPS differs from the GEFS on the restructuring of the tpv over the Arctic and thus retains a tad more influence from the subtropical high

    ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0212800.thumb.png.313ec95358f55e76465a9f05977227a4.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0212800.thumb.png.f7a2130de66c02eb605d74f56cc52268.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0212800.thumb.png.f249226a03c17b4ff83dc6335f87d0d7.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The North atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

    gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-9046400.thumb.png.3f1a5ede6675cc47849e6ae22f48b6f2.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.74d2a2c846d775ac31f224c33fed66c1.gif

    The frontal rain will clear the south east this morning leaving not a bad day with sunny intervals for most areas wth a few showers in  the west. But Scotland and N. Ireland, the former in particular, are still under the influence of Brendan  And here frequent heavy squally showers will persist with hail and thunder in the mix

    PPVE89.thumb.gif.2d373cbcedd1bce4f7efea19f701e916.gif2mtemp_d02_21.thumb.png.950c16d875dac36122d0f7be7a349e6a.pngprecip_d02_21.thumb.png.05fefacd2158ab0c08799156774d6605.png

    The showers over Scotland  will continue this evening bur another low is developing to the south west and this will track north east and rain from the warm front will move across N. Ireland and western Scotland in the early hours and the wind will start to pick up

    PPVG89.thumb.gif.3037e58550ecfffdb846fb76a400dac2.gifprecip_d02_33.thumb.png.182864a8a1f8df227a812c142cefcda5.pngprecip_d02_38.thumb.png.1d7d85c45448c559044dbdd9d2f48114.png

    This rain will clear quickly Thursday morning but rain from the cold front, aided by another small feature in the south, will sweep across the country during the afternoon and evening

    PPVI89.thumb.gif.b876b5d267b8b800a761a3b1b46c8846.gif2mtemp_d02_45.thumb.png.a012c2e22bf2687bba4205fac17d4b64.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.4db92df6bd077521409e088b24435b98.png

    The cold front will clear to the east as low continues it's journey north of Scotland but the trailing occlusion will result in showers across the country which could be heavy at times on Friday

    PPVJ89.thumb.gif.953854bc97f1b5fdb1e03888d26d1524.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.1a6120ec7ab3eda45ed5797d07954289.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-9284000.thumb.png.4e84d087ee91e4cfc05e89e2f6a84a67.png

    We now come to transition previously discussed that promotes the subtropical high resulting in dry and fairly sunny weekend with light winds if a tad cooler

    gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-9435200.thumb.png.61314cfe94de62649b86f7d5b7b7e4ba.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.5202fdff71cc9044c7a7d5f4d64c2edb.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.b6c5d66e9652227d9963459d2ed89700.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-9370400.thumb.png.ea8f492a42808529de2ba0aa7696db97.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-9456800.thumb.png.0ee48e7d0beb849c86fc49685c96c05c.png

    Edited by knocker
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