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Mid-winter - models, teleconnections and nowcasting

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4 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

note the 528 dam line across northern areas... snow showers?

Quite likely with everything else thrown into the mix I would imagine

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Once the cold front is through Sunday morning it will windy with frequent wintry showers of virtually anything including snow down to quite low levels in the north.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.a65f6c4dff5b1f64fba6e26aa1f8bfd1.gifsfcgust_d02_36.thumb.png.2b5c8b46207937a913f319acae1e5767.pngccd_d02_36.thumb.png.f5a90c76ec17bd7f1cff35384eaadd13.pngsounding.thumb.png.ab533fee2b73ae6d087b88a4e5bb5d3e.pnggfs-deterministic-natl_wide-pres_2pvu-5806400.thumb.png.72fbfb2dd1077c88d7b2ec85d4907d4d.png

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Essentially an ongoing westerly pattern now with both eps/gefs on the same page by day 10.The ecm mean chart perhaps a little more amplified wrt the Atlantic jet ridging out west and digging the UK trough a little further south.

1910162752_ecmwf-ens_z500aNorm_nhem_11(1).thumb.png.320da4d574f86811bc1fb7336c0b4a58.png2032767654_gfs-ens_z500aNorm_nhem_41(1).thumb.png.7255b5f9a2027cfef7fc2df6f3464efc.png

The placement of the bulk of the pv stretched across the north between N.Canada and Norway on both.

The overall outlook gives the same result though.With the jet aimed on a more southerly track we will see a fair dose of polar maritime air in the mix for the UK as the frontal systems whip across keeping temperatures often below average with bouts of wind and rain.Some snowfall quite possible in the period mainly over northern high ground but in this setup it can't be ruled out anywhere as colder air cuts in behind weather fronts.

The day 6-10 850 anomalies and the London combined ens.

 301031281_gfs-ens_T850aMean_eu_6(1).thumb.png.d8f62a49dd649145ce3f9cc658b46a2c.pngecmwf-ens_T850aMean_eu_6.thumb.png.1fbc9aa0ca561b1a863a4e4ffe6b18bd.png

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.8e4799c1a801ddbe2e3f0d14d59f3737.gif

Edited by phil nw.
Amended to days 6-10

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It's quite noticeable how many regions are above average.This looking at the 850 anomalies across the NH-this for T24hrs off the 06z GFS but running it through the next 7 days shows this trend ongoing.

gfsnh-15-24.thumb.png.02af794c96c0ee1d4bb0000d7978910b.png

Much of Europe and Russia above at this stage.The UK does have the colder air from the north west to draw on as the lows zip across to the north,however those cold uppers driving into the Atlantic off the Canadian vortex is enhancing the jet.

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Whilst the complex area of low pressure to the north west continues to develop tonight the warm front will quickly clear to the north east,, But the warm sector is short lived as the cold front sweeps through in the early hours and it becomes increasingly windy with frequent squally showers in the north

PPVA89.thumb.gif.594bd4a3d22407d54ec790d8ec398c13.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.0a64b1810f32aa0730f23c738a98a64a.gifgfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-5774000.thumb.png.c0618a047cbad64fbdf41b120ec4023b.png

meanreflec_d02_12.thumb.png.eb56fe640ff23e06f5081224a2c10731.pngmeanreflec_d02_18.thumb.png.c85c1f475811137e8013db623402aedc.pngmeanreflec_d02_22.thumb.png.b0450c81ea0f4a75b4daa4e8ab58e8a1.png

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Is the ext GEFS mean anomaly, with the retrogression of the Atlantis trough and a suggestion of heights building to the east, edging towards the EC weeklies position vis the last week of December?

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-natl_wide-z500_anom_5day-7102400.thumb.png.487ab7b8b51a875333b99faf16f74534.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-natl_wide-z500_anom-7102400.thumb.png.7d391a36e3ae93276ba7daa26395bea4.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-natl_wide-z500_anom_7day-7836800.thumb.png.1721b2a0d3173850ae8cc5445564ef01.png

Edited by knocker

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A pretty intense cold front pushing through tonight bringing many places an hour or two of heavy perhaps in a few spots torrential rain with very windy weather ahead and within this cold front with gusts close to or just over 40mph for inland regions more for the coasts. Sweeps through quite quickly with colder air digging in for Scotland showers turning to snow by morning especially but not exclusively over high ground. 

GFS.. 

12_12_windvector_gust.thumb.png.e6b7b4111b25685e5974a8a6200eab84.png

12_15_windvector_gust.thumb.png.93e3f61502d98b66adbb5ea01ace3683.png

12_12_preciptype_old.thumb.png.05047d3e90c277887c1bddf2c3d9f53d.png

12_15_preciptype_old.thumb.png.467cdf3978362acc09006f95f5d8d1fa.png

Arpege.. 

06_19_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.ff079935616039848bb8593a4b081935.png

06_21_ukwindvector_gust.thumb.png.dff27f91b70e1bec417cc52eb59e800f.png

06_18_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.e8aad8e7dab0b575811cf66f71a884a3.png

06_20_ukpreciptype.thumb.png.fd6346cadc51f82dc798779b8d403f03.png

Edited by jordan smith

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Some indication of retrogression and weakening of the east Atlantic trough with the ext EPS this evening but as yet no clear indications of height rises to the east

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7016000.thumb.png.318a190df81e8e35b7975bf2628c081d.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-7016000.thumb.png.854f3e5188ca3d85034a82a5b4989655.png

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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Some indication of retrogression and weakening of the east Atlantic trough with the ext EPS this evening but as yet no clear indications of height rises to the east

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7016000.thumb.png.318a190df81e8e35b7975bf2628c081d.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-7016000.thumb.png.854f3e5188ca3d85034a82a5b4989655.png

I think one of the 50 members builds a scandi high ........

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28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I think one of the 50 members builds a scandi high ........

You've found the 'trend-setter' then, BA? We all knew it just had to be there, somewhere...?:oldgrin:

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The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-5763200.thumb.png.145c7a39b13261039e182aa88e17dd9e.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.af7fc626e57b867454cfade548b52172.gif

Over the next 24 hours the complex trough to the north west re-orientates to a neutral alignment as it moves east and merges with the trough to the north. On the surface this translates to frequent squally heavy showers, with hail and thunder in the mix, through today, which will be mainly concentrated in western regions, but during this evening a further concentrated area of heavy shower activity will track south east down the country courtesy of the occlusion, But the main feature will be the strengthening wind in south western and western regions through this afternoon and evening, reaching severe gale force in coastal areas, before transferring to the east coast later in the night. The veering wind will also introduce colder air and wintry weather in northern Scotland

PPVE89.thumb.gif.de02501effa3337df394c22ddc43842b.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.5462697b3e87582af5d7e0743b87a743.gifgfs-deterministic-eur-t850_anom_stream-5871200.thumb.png.ae6a29de366984b79a20c06f93d201bc.pngpreciptype_d02_33.thumb.png.681f18e405a4aec45cf736b2034fc845.pngsfcgust_d02_24.thumb.png.cf702f51de78b86e6deebdb2a35baeb2.pngsfcgust_d02_29.thumb.png.e207e34f6dd35f5d14ee119b8c3f4cd2.pngsfcgust_d02_33.thumb.png.2c42a33d6d9884bbd56b9d118b4e26c5.pngsfcgust_d02_37.thumb.png.da9fe480b98ea2ad205db048a1af008b.png

Still windy for a time on Monday in northern and eastern coastal regions with frequent showers, wintry in the north, but the winds slowly easing though a rather cold day of sunny intervals elsewhere

PPVI89.thumb.gif.de7454028c11462f06e9376dee1fad7e.gif2mtemp_d02_44.thumb.png.4c1dbb7badc2d3a8d908f19dd7d0c600.png

Over Monday night rapid cyclogenisis is once again taking place near the left exit of the jet out in the Atlantic and the fronts associated with the deep low near Iceland will sweep across the country on Tuesday accompanied by heavy rain and strong winds

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-5979200.thumb.png.da0fd2c6d2faca94801bea090a02702e.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.8b0f58f1aefb882699f06e2b76a21416.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.4c0a936d2c32a02564d4528374630c54.gif

gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_6hr_inch-6000800.thumb.png.3105ec225516e1bf84b3ecd7ea80e60c.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-6000800.thumb.png.afddd76bc3fd66e4b76544fed2834390.png

The low drifts east on Wednesday so very windy over the northern half of the country, particularly Scotland, where frequent showers of the wintry variety will occur. Also very showery in the south courtesy of a trough running around in the circulation.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.096ce6e88e045ab3ef4f4bd12223261b.gifgfs-deterministic-uk-precip_6hr_inch-6087200.thumb.png.306c085ab1a54da1cbce18def8fc1af4.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-6087200.thumb.png.f701230d073a8513a46eb812b7302946.png

By Thursday the low is filling and drifting north but further frontal systems are winging east over the UK on the very strong jet bringing more rain

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-6152000.thumb.png.23e02fe236c886017b5984be6e6138aa.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.707511982ab9688470566cfab67a3f0e.gif

gfs-deterministic-uk-precip_6hr_inch-6173600.thumb.png.c70ce0505295ea961a11d7f3d93784af.pnggfs-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-6173600.thumb.png.794f87e513186fe78ef32b115de941b7.png

 

Edited by knocker

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The salient points of the ext GEFS mean anomaly this morning

A high cell over the Arctic complimenting the Russian ridge

TPV northern Canada with trough extension into the north west Atlantic south of a ridge into south east Greenland

A strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic south of the latter but with the retreat of the east Atlantic trough perhaps portending a more N/S split with temps nudging a tad warmer with Europe becoming quite toasty

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6972800.thumb.png.9d712c3501b0ee73ad96dd4c391a87b1.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-6972800.thumb.png.dfec0191a829dbbd74cb69b68218d631.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6972800.thumb.png.9bc93647f9bb430bd8dc8b6633a3c083.png

Edited by knocker

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Apart from perhaps more emphasis on height rises in south east Europe and the Greenland ridge The ext EPS pretty much in the same ball park as the GEFs

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-6972800.thumb.png.dd40ba2234a3eeb1d61221be7e92590f.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-6972800.thumb.png.284333524712c40c067fa22235c386ad.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-6972800.thumb.png.3b6740069711f58eef763b4686de0059.png

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Some quite significant changes to tonight's midnight and tomorrows midday fax charts this morning. Could well be blizzard condition over the norther Scottish mountains

PPVE89.thumb.gif.a1827211876c5b93e5e90aa882e6111d.gifPPVG89.thumb.gif.f25c2314cc848ab44b915d5afbdd93f4.gif

And Tuesday is looking pretty foul in the north

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.aacd79c98744e9be2b02a52ed532be0c.gif

Edited by knocker

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I wasn't sure where to post this, but the present state of the IOD might be responsible for the persistently positive temperature anomaly, over Southeastern Europe...?

 

_110013455_floods_fires_getty.jpg
WWW.BBC.CO.UK

A climate system in the Indian Ocean, known as the dipole, is behind extreme weather events in East Africa and Australia.

 

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Am happy to admit that my ideas for this Tuesday look to be off the mark. Was expecting (and hoping) for there to be a shallower feature, which would likely disrupt and track far enough South to deliver a wintry mix of weather. Thought in this instance, the powerful Low numerous models were showing was being over blown.

Nevertheless, looking at the latest models from the 12Z suites, it now looks quite likely the UK will be dominated by a cyclonic beast this Tuesday:

12Z GFS

D5CAAD84-32E8-4CD5-921D-1DD7118E5682.thumb.png.23bcf921323d37a41286eda691afc405.png

12Z ECMWF

8C0BC473-0614-4A8D-8B4B-EF291D8034B9.thumb.png.7237847ad41cc8b19206aa4287603b6b.png

12Z GEM

2556D1B6-3C50-4D91-8D58-7F36D8724EFC.thumb.png.c5eb6fa97af65622133fe3b7041c77ec.png

12Z ICON

8B3F0CC8-764F-42F1-A1AB-99A02AFF9CBD.thumb.png.f2e91e6e604fee9435ebb0fa367eaaff.png

12Z ARPEGE

26B59AAC-F7FF-4D34-B883-8EC62547777A.thumb.png.3b820d527046ee971befdd507f6d9983.png

A day of two W’s - Windy and Wet!

(Particularly across the North as knocker mentions)

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Hopefully the ecm take on the end of the week will not verify. It has some rapid cyclogenisis along the frontal boundary and a very deep surface low crossing the country

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-6130400.thumb.png.c9a9e00a46e07d3f86a8db41e2c5f561.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-6130400.thumb.png.ee2bbe297d676c2fc6fbdc4098a770a8.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-6195200.thumb.png.5301372c37140a79a4634c138514902d.png90.thumb.png.596ba1f3c3f06383f15dd61a4fdda721.png108.thumb.png.1edaafae0794b68e839eb008cc65d5ff.png120.thumb.png.dd39e8445ae3123e91598c5321023a9f.png

 

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The salient points of the ext EPS mean anomaly this morning

High cell over the Arctic adjacent the TPV northern Canada

Trough extension from the latter into the NW Atlantic beneath the ridge into eastern Greenland which is now just about an extension of the impressive build of heights over Europe.

This would still indicate unsettled but perhaps a more NW/SE split with Europe becoming quite toasty

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-7059200.thumb.png.4fc8ed3c8ea02db1811a8adfa9f4255c.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-t850_anom_5day-7059200.thumb.png.f676d2f674bab1f1a8dec40d81512066.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-7059200.thumb.png.d2b3c7a01126071d2ad25fcf008b6b29.png

 

Edited by knocker

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After today's respite things go downhill by the morning as the next low comes in.

T24 hr fax for 06 hrs tomorrow and ukv charts for tomorrow evening show the active fronts approaching and the rain and wind connected as they cross the country-note the sharp wind sheer along the cold front.

fax24s.thumb.gif.f102d3cb8cc8575dbc9399dcde08e008.gif 1.thumb.png.def0232369f3d9c0a17337029cb640fe.png2.thumb.png.1ff786d9c163355182f21eb05de0908c.png

 

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