Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Paul

Mid-winter - models, teleconnections and nowcasting

Recommended Posts

The high pressure hangs on for the first half of the week before coming under pressure

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9910400.thumb.png.c1135ed74bdad288b3bd3eacb814a5ba.png180.thumb.png.fa979479a2a7a8ec55b17edc964079e9.png204.thumb.png.cfd536758a5d1170b4f14df3d24535f7.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And no surprises this morning with the GEFS mean anomaly as the ridge continues under pressure, eventually being eradicated as the rather extensive and diffuse tpv starts to relocate back to northern Canada. Resulting i a zonal Atlantic and portending changeable weather again

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0256000.thumb.png.cad587ee2b89af4f13de6a6bdc224282.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0342400.thumb.png.82e31869ecb13fb10272cd7b65eb5552.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0364000.thumb.png.1edbb3a65db848420effc46c8aa5043a.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Similarly the ecm has the high cell hanging in there next week until the end when a lobe of the vortex drops south over Iceland

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-9867200.thumb.png.b8dc34949f88a58e85bdb7b7717213ce.png156.thumb.png.167816b5b0337160abfb1a66c7e3a3ce.png180.thumb.png.7bb37d9021ed56b46f7bdc870bccadc3.png204.thumb.png.ff4da0fbf883921607e71eb669867a80.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the ext period the EPS continues to adjust the tpv and associated troughs resulting in the suppression of any amplification of the subtropical high 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0256000.thumb.png.608398a359c0baf8a27351e02a8a920b.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0256000.thumb.png.b00067749cc6696ea20cb51b2fad0e02.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0277600.thumb.png.a9d514d9a42ab849e896db39b73dffdc.png

Last evening's NOAA in the same ball part if differing on some detail

814day_03.thumb.gif.982441f3238ef9c7f08b9791b266b8c6.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have to be thankful for the resilience of the subtropical high as it stops the cold arctic air plunging south. I mean that doesn't bear thinking about

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-9694400.thumb.png.4e8daf8c884bc7d75c6f75cd0ab8c260.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-9780800.thumb.png.7104b8762cbb371a276664a7b2b29bca.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z300_speed-9867200.thumb.png.b6c1de551e01b836638b91541adcd163.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The medium term GEFS mean anomaly has quite an intense tpv northern Russia with an arm extending to northern Canada/NE America, adjacent to the rdge This results in a very strong jet exiting the eastern seaboard around a weakening mid Atlantic ridge.The tpv continues to develop in the ext period which eventually eradicates the ridge establishing a flat zonal flow. This would presage a return to more unsettled weather after, hopefully, a more settled period

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9953600.thumb.png.9d83aea45dff6795e4bfe0e3cc67482c.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0299200.thumb.png.0ae2260fd16cc159ebc5b8eb118fa60c.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0407200.thumb.png.7a50edfaa3654ae1ebbbbe33d1ac2aa3.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0407200.thumb.png.8252dcec4094271cf0da223f0a4286c6.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The direction of travel of the mean EPS anomalies very much in the same ball park as the GEFS so further comment unnecessary

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9953600.thumb.png.f80363dd07edd7a77ec9759332fabbf5.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0299200.thumb.png.a106957ce24aaed2f456f1d0a9744f0e.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0385600.thumb.png.d4629099ac91e9fdddda9142cd929ecc.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0385600.thumb.png.219e67eb7a43cdf0ef261168d972db4b.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A look at the GEFS and EPS mean anomalies this morning which take us from the initial amplification this weekend through the next change which apparently occurs around day eight when a trough tracking from northern Canada (a well known tpv watering hole) tracks east and merges with the tpv in the eastern Arctic. Illustrated here using the ecm

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-9759200.thumb.png.ba9d19016fb977fd291a10fbc09d3351.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-9867200.thumb.png.d30aa1a2714f16cebc1725abfa521989.png

From this point the restructuring of the tpv across the Arctic gets underway resulting in a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic and a suppression of the subtropical high Thus a probable return to a more changeable scenario after a quieter period but tending towards a N/S split. Of course it is unwise to attempt to deduce detail from these charts but transient wintry episodes are quite possible, particularly in the north, as systems track east

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9996800.thumb.png.d7a6499a813059eccd34ec6026bcb10c.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0342400.thumb.png.3d0818927365255cb4d2b11600a863dd.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9996800.thumb.png.4da7e85aaa3261efa69e26fe1526eb3d.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0342400.thumb.png.af2e4fc1e69e298498fdcb3f9ee2992e.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0342400.thumb.png.9ba761dcf860e34753f13ea042ad0b55.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0342400.thumb.png.050a9c976d00f3a9af2630b0f41f45be.png

Last evening's NOAA

814day_03.thumb.gif.60b4ecbf3788d0f948051cd1ee14e37b.gif

 

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A glance at the EC weeklies update for the first two weeks of February

01 > 08

The tpv has relocated to the old stamping ground of northern canada with associated trough into the NW Atlantic.

This facilitates some ridging downstream  by the subtropical high in the vicinity of the UK

Thu portending a settled period, possibly excluding the north west, with temps a tad above average

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-1120000.thumb.png.0f7206f8394efa0d6b2f915c1fa7b5ed.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-1120000.thumb.png.eba2396d928a95458d234bc4ecc4b10f.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-1120000.thumb.png.a4fcea245e5fa6eb7401a522ab6c0148.png

08 > 15

The main difference here id Atlantic trough is more central so with the subtropical high not being quite so influential perhaps a tad more unsettled

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-1724800.thumb.png.3717626a0eb5e6df240e2e1d75c9fa7a.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_7day-1724800.thumb.png.7ad91bfdf9e946d27747a248aef01e5d.pngecmwf-weeklies-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-1724800.thumb.png.7d6860256e3d62269e2fcdceb08fcca7.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Get today out of the way and a more settled period with high pressure at the helm will be most welcome to all. But the orientation of the ridge, centred to the south west, is quite critical and certainly this morning's gfs run illustrates this. Below is the GEFS seven day temp average,I appreciates this smooths over daily and diurnal variations, but does help to illustrate the point

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-uk-t2m_c_anom_7day-0083200.thumb.png.9cf2ac8b7ba281ee291b8140d7d8de2a.png132.thumb.png.db91ecda5a2eb4a8f611cd9c4180aab2.png156.thumb.png.8bcde20e2a4965f4fa0a2bde6e8b6c85.png180.thumb.png.7c47a03e323791050bebd8ecc5ae1c39.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The transition to a more settled scenario this weekend quickly establishes an impressive high cell but through next week this does come under pressure from energy exiting the eastern seaboard, aided and abetted by the presence of a cut off low in the Iberia region.. And later in the ten day period a lobe of the tpv tracks east from northern Canada which essentially marks the end of high pressure influence and a return to a more zonal flow as the tpv over the Arctic undergoes some restructuring. The various anomalies vary a tad in detail but all are in the same ball park and give a reasonable over view of this

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0083200.thumb.png.40e5d8abec60f2c52bc7ed91c1f9394b.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0428800.thumb.png.97c4eb0aff45da3e6533464b41738234.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0515200.thumb.png.f74341f10a4751910ee6532694e4a54f.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-precip_168hr_inch-0515200.thumb.png.4568e3cc1f30a7faf2313bb45c6cad18.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0083200.thumb.png.cf669336a5a8af851c7e040f6910c6c8.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0428800.thumb.png.f1ebd5150e2afe2b8b18bd67f956fe1d.png

814day_03.thumb.gif.72efb25b6f8b0b8501a9b292a4d85c54.gif

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Having a quick look at the clusters does nothing to suggest anything different from my earlier post that the ext period looks very much like a fluid Atlantic and the usual phasing of the airmasses being the percentage play

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011700_288.thumb.png.408881f66ca8cf0f6d91696c8efa9c35.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011700_324.thumb.png.3dac87c1330d047cf7261f31940b7d4c.pngec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2020011700_360.thumb.png.4e76f82ca1a07a645e232fc5d9b15bc2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On another note, a chilly but sunny with light winds, weekend sounds alright to me

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_min6-9327200.thumb.png.42596d1803060f2dc2ff5dd9386efbdd.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_min6-9413600.thumb.png.3ba0f78b54579428cb7ccb1f5f0a5abf.png

ecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-9370400.thumb.png.fba009542dda5ebb77d1ae269f220530.pngecmwf-deterministic-uk-t2m_c_max6-9456800.thumb.png.40ca1f99168d8478fdd3c8dceba13bd7.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some better news for the east coast of Australia with some heavy rain and thunderstorms

ecmwf-deterministic-aus-t850_mslp_prcp6hr-9287600.thumb.png.ef755878c4af4a03b0768fde480397c5.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An interesting view of storms in the Atlantic including more rapid cyclogenisis in the west

meteosat-msg_naturalenhncd_overlay-ne_10m_coastline_overlay-ne_10m_admin_0_boundary_lines_land.thumb.jpg.3e78aaa7ca7aca21cfe8e818acb94680.jpg

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The is little agreement between the mean anomalies this morning thus confidence of detail within the evolution is low. It starts relatively early in the piece with the tracking of a lobe of the vortex from northern Canada east and the subsequent suppression of the subtropical high as the tpv over the Arctic relocates,or not. The EPS is much more bullish with this than the GEFS this morning as the latter is more inclined to withdraw the main tpv back to northern Canada. This regresses the Atlantic trough west and allows further amplification of the European subtropical high whilst the EPS is flatter and zonal. NOAA is twixt and between

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0169600.thumb.png.6854e275b15fa0e79fae21ee99fa0313.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0515200.thumb.png.a4825f05b985e9081f8ca27cd85f3a02.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0601600.thumb.png.bf68e1cd42edc9f3d3703f756a601bf0.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0169600.thumb.png.4550b0bcd4d02ccb8342e1a306bc44b5.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0515200.thumb.png.80a8848a6ab49f9e20f3b8aa9097b87a.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0601600.thumb.png.340399fc080308e744a9c19df49a2d36.png

814day_03.thumb.gif.8115b142e8146e55ca944dbc5217b602.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With reference to my earlier post the difference between the 06 gfs and midnight ecm is quite apparent from around t168 and this is the position at 00 Sunday. The treatment of the vortex lobe over Greenland and the North American ridge and the knock on effect downstream

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-9996800.thumb.png.29b4e95401863bfea35e216d7bfc06ae.pnggfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom-9996800.thumb.png.24e6a9c0197127477e306a4b0a11e653.png

The east coast storm

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-thickness_mslp_prcp6hr-9348800.thumb.png.98f27c5aae27315b77928c99178e05f1.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The differences between the mean anomalies was noted this morning with the GEFS suggesting renewed amplification of the subtropical high allied to regression of the Atlantic trough. It has revised that position this evening

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0558400.thumb.png.e68b9b30c0dea526e5e16231db2f7faa.png724356015_gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0558400now.thumb.png.0397d13b304c84bd2b8d5f8d431d35a7.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The little upper low currently NW of Coruna

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-9348800.thumb.png.25688ee3579b4ed810551423b265b67b.png

develops and plays quite a significant role over the next five days

ecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-z300_speed-9824000.thumb.png.70d6859ec9c050ba7b89dad7f79c5f1f.pngecmwf-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-9824000.thumb.png.5ad96ddfd6feb7155094ac0d5a8b0aec.png132.thumb.png.a5eb8a760ad5ea19173ffc9565b248a2.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Worth just keeping an eye on at this stage but if, and when, a lobe of the tpv gets established near Iceland at the end of the week then once again there will be an active breeding ground for cyclogenisis in mid Atlantic and we don't want another deep low skirting too close again

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-9996800.thumb.png.bc2f43c1665b9576a8fe2baaa3225306.png168.thumb.png.842c6d1ea7620a0d862c2f53ed3977d5.pngindex.thumb.png.1219d10b213136068c1492b871e18bfe.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some infiltration of Stratospheric air at midnight?

2020011900.03238.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.0589ee51c4098f80e4a95dece3985383.gif2020011900.03354.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.9ae183d6f593a13dc870b48bc3ac1b32.gifgfs-deterministic-natl_wide-pres_2pvu-9392000.thumb.png.52a9eed5dda2ddea747e25386301d374.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The latter part of the ecm det run

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-0169600.thumb.png.08a2b0eadc99e8ee298a775dea17fd39.pngecmwf-deterministic-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-0148000.thumb.png.ed7afc49431f7f1dd406c602a226dd75.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Restore formatting

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...