Models, teleconnections and nowcasting

[knocker]

Quite a variation in cloud and temps today with the shallow low t the south west

[knocker]

Greenland goes into the freezer (relatively speaking) as the vortex drops in

Edited December 31, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

The ext mean GEFs pretty much as expected upstream but the Atlantic has become more amplified in this period which would be quite good news if it verified in this manner but the outputs in this period are not particularly consistent at the moment

[knocker]

The ecm for the weekend

[knocker]

And just to illustrate the point made above compare the ext GEFS with the EPS

[knocker]

The UK is currently betwixt a complex trough to the north west and high pressure to the south east

The North atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

A cloudy start to the day in most areas with fog around, particularly in the north east of England. This may be slow to lift resulting in somewhat suppressed temps whilst there may be some breaks in the cloud elsewhere.

Remaining cloudy overnight but thickening with the wind picking up in the north west as a cold front edges in.

More persistent rain from the front will effect N. Ireland and western Scotland by 1000 Thursday and then track south east through the day fizzling out as it goes. But frequent hefty showers will follow behind courtesy of a second cold front.

Any rain from the fronts will clear Friday morning as the ridge moves east resulting in a dry but chilly day apart from the far north where it will be windy with some rain, courtesy of a cold front associated with the deep low west of Norway

The ridge continues to build over the UK on Saturday as the aforementioned cold front tracks down the North Sea. Quite a cold day in some areas.

By Sunday there is a lot going n upstream with the vortex dropping down the west coast of Greenland creating a strong thermal gradient and some of this energy suppresses the UK ridge which allows a frontal system to skirt the north

Edited January 1, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

It should be noted that the gfs has the developing low in mid Atlantic 15mb lower than Exeter and it continues to develop it near the left exit of the strong jet  I've no idea how much credence to give to this so for the moment best left here I feel

[knocker]

The GEFS 5-10 this morning and there is no reason why some very active cyclogenisis should not occur in the baroclinic environment of the western Atlantic

And in the ext period again highlighting the strong east Pacific ridge adjacent to the vortex/trough whilst downstream moving the Atlantic trough a tad east

Edited January 1, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm through the first half of next week

[cheshire snow]

31 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm through the first half of next week

Happy New Year Knocker

Keep up your excellent posting in this thread

C.S

 

[knocker]

Same to you C.S.

Anyway the ext EPS is still not keen on any influence from the subtropical high for the UK

And it's a very gloomy day in these parts with low St, fog and light rain, courtesy of the occlusion.

 

[knocker]

Ah well. At least the earlier St, fog and slight rain gave way to dry and a Sc sheet around 2500ft

Edited January 1, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

The gfs still looking to develop an intense little low ar the base of the trough at the start of next week

[knocker]

Predictable the ecm is different although still looking at some wet and windy weather

[knocker]

The ext mean anomalies are in the same ballpark without being identical in the Atlantic/Euro sector. The precise configuration and intensity of the trough and subtropical high is critical vis the forth coming detail

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

A cloudy start to the day in most places and this will remain the case, albeit relatively warm if the sun does break through, But rain from the first cold front will shortly arrive in N. Ireland and western Scotland and this will track south east through today and this evening becoming sporadic in the later stages. It will be followed by further showery outbreaks, and then more persistent rain. courtesy of the second front tracking the same route

The rain, which by now is starting to fizzle out, will continue to move south east over England and Wales through  tonight but clearer behind with some wintry showers over Scotland by morning

The rain will clear Friday morning leaving a cooler and brighter day for most but northern Scotland is still under the influence of the deep low to the north and a stray cold front so windy here with more wintry showers.

Over Friday night and through sSturday another deep low tracks into the Denmark Straits and a waving front connecting to two low pressure systems lies across central Scotland so some rain in this area whilst the south remains dry

Further development of the troughs by Sunday has dragged the front north again so any rain confined to the far north of Scotland

By Monday the developing pattern is very complex in the west as the new low undergoes rapid cyclogenisis as it tracks north to merge with the vortex lobe over Greenland. The cold front associated with this tracks east across the country resulting in heavy rain and strong winds with gales possible in exposed areas.

 

[knocker]

What happens next is defendant on the handling of the low east of Newfoundland and the gfs tracks it north east to merge with the vortex whilst the associated fronts race across the the UK and thus another wet and windy day particularly in north and western regions

And then it develops another , low at the base of the upper trough but best left here I think

[knocker]

And the ecm on net week. Much still to be resolved

[knocker]

Last evening's comments is the ext mean anomalies still pertain this morning

[knocker]

The movement of the two fronts through this evening and overnight with associated rainfall and the wintry showers that follow over northern Scotland

 

Edited January 2, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

The tpv dropping down to southern Greenland accompanied by some subtropical resilience further south does create an environment that is the breeding ground for some intense cyclogenisis with Iceland in the firing line

 

[knocker]

According to the gfs det output the vortex drops colder air into the Atlantic as Europe sizzles

[knocker]

Smoke from the horrendous fires in south east Australia as seen from the Himawari satellite earlier to day

[knocker]

The usual rather subtle differences regarding the ext mean anomalies this evening but the area that impinges the most of the forthcoming detail vis the UK is the structure and intensity of the vertex/trough m mid Atlantic and the European subtropical high to the east

[Jordan S]

Band of fairly light rain across western parts will pep up and become more widespread as it crosses England in particular a mild night for England and Wales with a southwesterly at first then turning north to northwesterly but quite cold further north particularly Scotland as north to northwesterly winds are developing already behind this area of rain also mostly dry for northern Ireland, Ireland and Northern England although the odd shower not to be ruled out with a few wintry showers likely for parts of Scotland but on the whole most places dry even here.. these drier conditions extend to all by the middle of tomorrow morning and with it a drop in temperatures for England and Wales. 

Arpege.. 

Midnight.. 

3am..

9am..

Arome shows this wet weather up well below.. 

10pm this evening.. 

Midnight.. 

2am..

4am..

7am..

Edited January 2, 2020 by jordan smith