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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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8 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Winter 1868-1869 compared with 2019-2020 so far

Current mildest winter on record

December 1868 - CET 7.2     December 2019 - CET 5.8     -1.4 lower

January 1869 - CET 5.6         January 2020 - CET 6.5        +0.9 higher

February 1869 - CET 7.5

 

February 2020 needs to record a CET of 8.0 to equal the mildest winter on record of 1868-1869

If we get CET of 8.1 or more then we have a new record mildest winter.

Based on how our winter has been so far and the output showing for the next 2 weeks at least combined with a possible record breaking positive AO and continuation of positive NAO then don't rule out a February CET of 8.0 or more. That in itself would beat 1779's all time February CET record of 7.9.

Interesting stats.Their were some brutal winters after the mildest ever winter.And it’s taken over 150 years to have a chance of the mildest ever winter again.

 

Going put this winter down to one of those freak events,like when we got a winter of the severity of 1962/1963 that was a one in 250 year event.

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14 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Winter 1868-1869 compared with 2019-2020 so far

Current mildest winter on record

December 1868 - CET 7.2     December 2019 - CET 5.8     -1.4 lower

January 1869 - CET 5.6         January 2020 - CET 6.5        +0.9 higher

February 1869 - CET 7.5

 

February 2020 needs to record a CET of 8.0 to equal the mildest winter on record of 1868-1869

If we get CET of 8.1 or more then we have a new record mildest winter.

Based on how our winter has been so far and the output showing for the next 2 weeks at least combined with a possible record breaking positive AO and continuation of positive NAO then don't rule out a February CET of 8.0 or more. That in itself would beat 1779's all time February CET record of 7.9.

 

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Interesting stats.Their were some brutal winters after the mildest ever winter.And it’s taken over 150 years to have a chance of the mildest ever winter again.

 

Going put this winter down to one of those freak events,like when we got a winter of the severity of 1962/1963 that was a one in 250 year event.

Considering February 1779 got a CET of 7.9 and how we have a warmer world than back in the 1700's then I just get the feeling that we are due our first February CET of 8.0 or more. We got our first 20C+ day last February.

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I think the only damp straw I can clutch at is that some places around the globe have had record snowfall, eg. Newfoundland (St. Johns). If it can happen there who's to say it cannot happen here again. That said it doesn't feel right that we don't have any spell of significant (for us!) snowfall this winter. It does make you wonder when much of Europe seem to be reporting record high temps. Is it indeed some sort of GW-influenced step change? The snows of my childhood do seem to be receding into a more distant memory each warm, snowless winter we get.   

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Such a poor winter, steve murr mentioned that finland are norway are pretty much snowless, and has also posted a very dire outlook, at least most of the northern hemisphere is in the same boat, old man winter, where have you gone in recent years

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10 hours ago, Don said:

If there is anything to take from this winter, it's unlikely that next year could be much worse?!

I wouldn't bank on it...just as much possibility of getting another similar winter, maybe with a milder December? - 2013/14, 2015/16 and this winter have been absolute stinkers!!

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16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Going put this winter down to one of those freak events,like when we got a winter of the severity of 1962/1963 that was a one in 250 year event.

Why?...3 of the worst winters I've recorded have come in the last 7 winters, and I've been recording since 1983/84.

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but we have had two severe marches to make up for the rubbish winters of recent years.

Dont bet against it happening this time as well,looking at the latest gfs run,bitter cold waiting to hit Europe as we head closer to Spring again ,lol

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54 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Why?...3 of the worst winters I've recorded have come in the last 7 winters, and I've been recording since 1983/84.

Aye FWTD. It's like entering a coin-tossing competition, following 99 successive heads: what does one do? Blindly stake one's house & contents on the next toss coming up 'tails', or check that said coin isn't biased...?:crazy:

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1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Winter 1868-1869 compared with 2019-2020 so far

Current mildest winter on record

December 1868 - CET 7.2     December 2019 - CET 5.8     -1.4 lower

January 1869 - CET 5.6         January 2020 - CET 6.5        +0.9 higher

February 1869 - CET 7.5

 

February 2020 needs to record a CET of 8.0 to equal the mildest winter on record of 1868-1869

If we get CET of 8.1 or more then we have a new record mildest winter.

Based on how our winter has been so far and the output showing for the next 2 weeks at least combined with a possible record breaking positive AO and continuation of positive NAO then don't rule out a February CET of 8.0 or more. That in itself would beat 1779's all time February CET record of 7.9.

Interestingly the only top 20 spotless year that really gets close to this winter bar last year is actually 1877 with 6.0, 5.5, 6.2. A highly abnormal winter.

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A highly abnormal mild winter is all it is, what's stopping spring being the other way. 

 

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2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

I wouldn't bank on it...just as much possibility of getting another similar winter, maybe with a milder December? - 2013/14, 2015/16 and this winter have been absolute stinkers!!

I’m not banking an anything the way the climate is going.  However, next winter could hardly be more snowless than this one so far.  Even January 2016 held slight more interest.

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Valencia hit 27.0c yesterday with cold air very restricted to the far north of Europe

2_txint_eur2.thumb.png.8d54a0bb79097c5fa07b3de4b243d811.png

 

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43 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

A highly abnormal mild winter is all it is, what's stopping spring being the other way. 

 

The CFS... 😅

cfs-0-1242.png?12

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3 hours ago, snowrye said:

Such a poor winter, steve murr mentioned that finland are norway are pretty much snowless, and has also posted a very dire outlook, at least most of the northern hemisphere is in the same boat, old man winter, where have you gone in recent years

Steve actually said Southern Norway/Finland (which is correct)  - plenty of snow on the ground in Northern parts as has been the case all Winter.

Latest snow and ice cover:

image.thumb.gif.ec68609f2b88d1d5a7d52a5b178ee764.gif

Current temperatures:

image.thumb.png.601e0402e9fc0f70dc5b55154baccc8c.png

Iceland currently:

image.thumb.png.5d9f1eb80fee05f40b1029df19dcdbdc.png

I have said it before if you want a good snowy/cold holiday - those are the places to go! 😀 

Anyways I am here for a moan! (Thought I had entered the Climate Change thread for a moment)

Horrible Winter's day! Currently 4C, heavy rain and low cloud - my least favourite type of weather! Only thing keeping me interested in Winter weather at the moment is the threat of colder air from the NW and severe gale events. (Warning out for tomorrow here)

No doubt we will get a cold/wet April/May as most of us look for warmth/convective weather! 

Right now I would love to be in the above places or Valencia! 

Edited by Mr Frost

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If we get lumbered with cool/cold weather in April and May, let's hope it's of the sort that will at least bring us some classic sunshine and shower convective days. From a selfish point of view, I do well for thunder in these types of setups:

archives-2016-4-26-12-0.png archives-2015-5-19-12-0.png archives-2012-4-12-12-0.png 

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Moved from Poole to the West Mildands in August 2018. Expecting some snow and cold weather but during the 17 months since, Nil pois. Utter tosh. 

This winter is a write off. Let's get through the rest of this current crap and focus on spring and summer. Maybe winter 2020/21 might bring something more favourable in the terms of cold weather. 

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even my better half who was born in South Carolina was commenting its colder there than it is here quite bizzare.and my pear tree is starting to bud.

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At least there is more interest for all those seeking cold in the models at the moment even if the end result is pretty much as per normal!! Models have been very bullish rolling out week after week of milder than average dross recently...……..a points deduction without question should be enforced for the models bare cheek...……..will the outlook improve..………….very SCEPTICAL!!! 😁  LIKEY CREEEEEEEEEWWWWW

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8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Valencia hit 27.0c yesterday with cold air very restricted to the far north of Europe

2_txint_eur2.thumb.png.8d54a0bb79097c5fa07b3de4b243d811.png

 

It was amazing! Coming out of the Carrefour Supermarket felt similar to that feeling that you get on a hot Summer's day when that hot air hits you. However we did get pummeled by Storm Gloria last week, which produced some superb thunderstorms but also some very damaging winds.

Edited by 95 Degrees
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2 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

Denver has the craziest weather swings surely? 

denverwtf.thumb.png.6da219d5aff96c51b1a660204c6903bc.png

I would love to live in Denver. They get proper winter weather, the summers aren't oppressive and you've got the mountains next door. Plus it's a saner part of the states. I got to experience a couple of these cold fronts in Oklahoma, they are incredible, you can actually feel the temperature drop 10-15c in a matter of minutes. Bizarre.

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As a keen cyclist, I often see images of cyclists in Boulder, Colorado on social media - not jealous at all........

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39 minutes ago, HafrenLMP1 said:

As a keen cyclist, I often see images of cyclists in Boulder, Colorado on social media - not jealous at all........

Boulder is absolutely beautiful. I know someone living there doing a post-doc. Some day...

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Dear Atlantic,

Please take your mild, windy wetness and go away.

Yours gratefully,

Slovakia

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Dear God, just look at the state of it.

image.thumb.png.28666327f85cea3c4b9fcd584c13810a.png

I'm hopeful I may see some snow next week from some shots of PM air due to my altitude, but this isn't what I signed up for damn it! 

I don't think there's been a winter where I've been so consistently duped by model output in the medium-long term.  Pretty sure I've been championing a pattern change ever since mid-January 😅 The strat forecasts have traditionally been fairly reliable even out to +384h, but this winter it just kept teasing us only for any predicted warmings to be incredibly watered down, and the sPV shaking off any minor hits it does take.  Right now, it doesn't even look at all likely that we'll get a consolation of an early-Spring "winter".  

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