Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[North-Easterly Blast]

27 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

Although I wasn’t expecting a colder than average winter I must say I have been really disappointed with this winter and how little cold it has given us.I thought that a few background signals were in coldies  favour going into winter(low sunspot and ENSO neutralish) and I thought that would bring us a cold spell in December and then another one in mid to late February.However, the PV formed really quickly in early December and has never looked back since and imho has scuppered any chance of cold reaching the UK(barring the odd PM flirtation).On top of this the huge area of High pressure over Southern Europe seems to be further north this year and has not allowed anything from a Northerly quadrant to push down.These 2 factors look like ruling the roost for a good deal of February too and with no SSW looking likely it looks like 2019/20 winter continues the trend of mild winters that have been the norm for the last 5/6 years.Maybe March can give us a nice surprise though I am not holding my breath on that either !!

It certainly makes one wonder if it is any longer realistically possible for a prolonged winter cold spell to develop in the UK again.  Background signals like low sunspots and neutral ENSO and a QBO becoming easterly, I would have expected to have suggested a reasonable chance of cold outbreaks and yet this winter so far has brought the UK next to nothing, and in particular has left us with what looks like the warmest January since at least 2008 and at least the third warmest in the last 30 years, so I would call this January a notably mild month even by the standards of the last three decades, and certainly far from the norm.  Looking at the output as we enter February it looks as though it will be a struggle to salvage something out of the rest of this winter. 

Will we ever see a winter like 2009-10 or even 2012-13 or a spell like Dec 2010 ever again?  If the background signals had have been poor this winter like the strong El Nino in 2015-16 or a strong La NIna like in the late 1990s or 2007-08, or being close to solar maximum like we were in 2013-14 then winter 2019-20 so far would have been, although still disappointing; less worrying, and we would still have hope for a colder winter when the background signals are better.

Edited January 30, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[Mr Frost]

Was just browsing through the pictures I have taken this month...it has actually not been as bad as I thought.

I am guilty of getting caught up in the chase for cold/snow during Winter but cloud types, sunsets, gales, wintry showers and snow capped hills/mountains are also a bit part of Winter for many of us.

 

And just to end it...this is all the settling low ground snowfall I have seen so far this Winter...

 

Hopefully an interesting/action packed month of February weather ahead!

Edited January 30, 2020 by Mr Frost

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It certainly makes one wonder if it is any longer realistically possible for a prolonged winter cold spell to develop in the UK again.  Background signals like low sunspots and neutral ENSO and a QBO becoming easterly, I would have expected to have suggested a reasonable chance of cold outbreaks and yet this winter so far has brought the UK next to nothing, and in particular has left us with what looks like the warmest January since at least 2008 and at least the third warmest in the last 30 years, so I would call this January a notably mild month even by the standards of the last three decades, and certainly far from the norm.  Looking at the output as we enter February it looks as though it will be a struggle to salvage something out of the rest of this winter.  Will we ever see a winter like 2009-10 or even 2012-13 or a spell like Dec 2010 ever again?

I remember we were saying the same thing exactly 12 years ago... 

 

 

 

[mb018538]

9 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It certainly makes one wonder if it is any longer realistically possible for a prolonged winter cold spell to develop in the UK again.  Background signals like low sunspots and neutral ENSO and a QBO becoming easterly, I would have expected to have suggested a reasonable chance of cold outbreaks and yet this winter so far has brought the UK next to nothing, and in particular has left us with what looks like the warmest January since at least 2008 and at least the third warmest in the last 30 years, so I would call this January a notably mild month even by the standards of the last three decades, and certainly far from the norm.  Looking at the output as we enter February it looks as though it will be a struggle to salvage something out of the rest of this winter.  Will we ever see a winter like 2009-10 or even 2012-13 or a spell like Dec 2010 ever again?

Of course it is. This winter got done in by the IOD - the seasonal models factored this in and nailed it. There will be cold winters again in the future. Who knows when, but it’ll happen.

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Will we ever see a winter like 2009-10 or even 2012-13 or a spell like Dec 2010 ever again?  If the background signals had have been poor this winter like the strong El Nino in 2015-16 or a strong La NIna like in the late 1990s or 2007-08, or being close to solar maximum like we were in 2013-14 then winter 2019-20 so far would have been, although still disappointing; less worrying, and we would still have hope for a colder winter when the background signals are better.

And flipping that forward, next winter is going to be crucial, still at solar minimum, definite eQBO, no signs yet of strong ENSO either way, hope to god no +IOD!!, but if that doesn't deliver anything at least half reasonable, you would have to think that the game has changed and we haven't kept up with the rules.  One thing that I think is underplayed in recent years analysis on here, is SSTs in the North Atlantic.  Even money says that will be what screws us next year!  

The other 50% of me says winter 2020/21 will be a blinder...we will see...

[Snowyowl9]

Winter starts in november and finishes sometime in april so not halfway through yet for the biggest snow which is spring.

Anyway back to the now we`ve had a balmy 11c but a year ago it was 10 c colder at 1c with 2 inches of snow.

[damianslaw]

I was reading an article in the Times today discussing the mildest January on record in 1916, and how the mild conditions prevailed into and through February until month end when a marked change occurred, a significant cold wintry spell early March.. it then led into a very poor summer, coldest August on record I think..

I wonder what we would have all been saying at this stage in 1916.. no chance of cold and snow at all no doubt...

[North-Easterly Blast]

I find it hard to believe that the IOD as far away as the Indian Ocean has drastically had a big impact on weather patterns in our small part of the world 1000s of miles away.  I find it easier to believe that a strong ENSO anomaly either way affects weather patterns over North America which is where the UK's Atlantic weather originates from on the opposite side of the Atlantic, and close to solar maximum tends to lead to a stronger vortex which in turn makes it more difficult for northern blocking to develop, but is there evidence from previous year's strong IODs that have led to poor winters for cold in the UK?  

[damianslaw]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And flipping that forward, next winter is going to be crucial, still at solar minimum, definite eQBO, no signs yet of strong ENSO either way, hope to god no +IOD!!, but if that doesn't deliver anything at least half reasonable, you would have to think that the game has changed and we haven't kept up with the rules.  One thing that I think is underplayed in recent years analysis on here, is SSTs in the North Atlantic.  Even money says that will be what screws us next year!  

The other 50% of me says winter 2020/21 will be a blinder...we will see...

Was reading somewhere atlantic expected to warm in the next 5 years, also a chance of a La Nina next winter.. the warmer atlantic could help to reduce the temp gradient and strength and position of the jet, if it develops in time for winter.

The IOD was a new one to me this winter, something never really mentioned in previous winters, I don't believe there have been cases of strong IOD's following on from one another..

Solar cycle and eQBO positive factors for something colder as well.

Developments through the summer will be interesting, will we see a shift to a more southerly tracking jet this year, something that happened in summer 2008..

[damianslaw]

2 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I find it hard to believe that the IOD as far away as the Indian Ocean has drastically had a big impact on weather patterns in our small part of the world 1000s of miles away.  I find it easier to believe that a strong ENSO anomaly either way affects weather patterns over North America which is where the UK's Atlantic weather originates from on the opposite side of the Atlantic, and close to solar maximum tends to lead to a stronger vortex which in turn makes it more difficult for northern blocking to develop, but is there evidence from previous year's strong IODs that have led to poor winters for cold in the UK?  

I think there is a post in the teleconnections thread which mentions the last three strong IOD events and have these coincided with mild winters in the UK, so yes there is evidence, but as you say it is only one factor and others must surely have the strength to cancel it out, but what I think has happened this year, is that none of these factors have been strong enough to do so, a weak neutral El Nino, not yet coming out of solar minima. The SST profile hasn't helped, neither has the warm NE Pacific as well. Had we seen a stronger ENSO then perhaps this could have cancelled out the IOD. 

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Was reading somewhere atlantic expected to warm in the next 5 years, also a chance of a La Nina next winter.. the warmer atlantic could help to reduce the temp gradient and strength and position of the jet, if it develops in time for winter.

The IOD was a new one to me this winter, something never really mentioned in previous winters, I don't believe there have been cases of strong IOD's following on from one another..

Solar cycle and eQBO positive factors for something colder as well.

Developments through the summer will be interesting, will we see a shift to a more southerly tracking jet this year, something that happened in summer 2008..

Blimey, I hope not, it's not all about winter you know!

[Sunny76]

19 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I was reading an article in the Times today discussing the mildest January on record in 1916, and how the mild conditions prevailed into and through February until month end when a marked change occurred, a significant cold wintry spell early March.. it then led into a very poor summer, coldest August on record I think..

I wonder what we would have all been saying at this stage in 1916.. no chance of cold and snow at all no doubt...

2020 is set to be a poor summer. Early signs coming from Gav’s weather summer forecast. 

[North-Easterly Blast]

6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I think there is a post in the teleconnections thread which mentions the last three strong IOD events and have these coincided with mild winters in the UK, so yes there is evidence, but as you say it is only one factor and others must surely have the strength to cancel it out, but what I think has happened this year, is that none of these factors have been strong enough to do so, a weak neutral El Nino, not yet coming out of solar minima. The SST profile hasn't helped, neither has the warm NE Pacific as well. Had we seen a stronger ENSO then perhaps this could have cancelled out the IOD. 

Winter 1962-63 occurred at the start of solar minima, winter 1978-79 occurred as solar activity was increasing after solar minima, the cold spells of the mid 1980s occurred in the early to middle part of solar minima, winter 1995-96 came near the start of solar minima, winter 2009-10 then Dec 2010 came roughly in the middle of an extended solar minima, winter 2012-13 was just coming out of solar minima, so can see good evidence for colder winters close to solar minima, but it has varied between earlier on in solar minima and at times coming out of solar minima.

[North-Easterly Blast]

16 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I think there is a post in the teleconnections thread which mentions the last three strong IOD events and have these coincided with mild winters in the UK, so yes there is evidence, but as you say it is only one factor and others must surely have the strength to cancel it out, but what I think has happened this year, is that none of these factors have been strong enough to do so, a weak neutral El Nino, not yet coming out of solar minima. The SST profile hasn't helped, neither has the warm NE Pacific as well. Had we seen a stronger ENSO then perhaps this could have cancelled out the IOD. 

Last winter was also poor for cold, with there being something a bit colder (but no major cold spell) and a little snow for favoured areas in the second half of January and that was that.  I have not read any conclusion as to what could have gone wrong with the 2018-19 winter.  

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

28 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Winter starts in november and finishes sometime in april so not halfway through yet for the biggest snow which is spring.

Technically not correct "However, at the Met Office, we often use a meteorological definition of the seasons. By the meteorological calendar, the first day of winter is always 1 December; ending on 28 (or 29 during a Leap Year) February. " 

"astronomical winter begins on 22 December 2019 and ends on 20 March 2020."

Though of course we can get snow during spring and up here it isn't uncommon to get spring snowfalls.

47 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

And flipping that forward, next winter is going to be crucial, still at solar minimum, definite eQBO, no signs yet of strong ENSO either way, hope to god no +IOD!!, but if that doesn't deliver anything at least half reasonable, you would have to think that the game has changed and we haven't kept up with the rules.  One thing that I think is underplayed in recent years analysis on here, is SSTs in the North Atlantic.  Even money says that will be what screws us next year!  

The other 50% of me says winter 2020/21 will be a blinder...we will see...

The interesting thing for me next winter will be the seasonal models (tbh I never really champion them 100 % as we have seen plenty of fails in the past) but this year credit to the ones that picked out the pattern so far this winter but if they do show conditions favourable for a colder than average winter ie northern blocking how much people would really put their money on them being correct as opposed to it being a mild outlook like this winter?

[Mike Poole]

3 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Technically not correct "However, at the Met Office, we often use a meteorological definition of the seasons. By the meteorological calendar, the first day of winter is always 1 December; ending on 28 (or 29 during a Leap Year) February. " 

"astronomical winter begins on 22 December 2019 and ends on 20 March 2020."

Though of course we can get snow during spring and up here it isn't uncommon to get spring snowfalls.

The interesting thing for me next winter will be the seasonal models (tbh I never really champion them 100 % as we have seen plenty of fails in the past) but this year credit to the ones that picked out the pattern so far this winter but if they do show conditions favourable for a colder than average winter ie northern blocking how much people would really put their money on them being correct as opposed to it being a mild outlook like this winter?

Yes, on here they won't, there's this 'seasonal models are always correct if they predict mild, shaky if they predict cold' mindset which I have never understood.  They are probabilistic forecasts, so to prove such a bias statistically would take many many more years than we've had the seasonal models at their current level of sophistication available for.  Uncertainty.  People find it difficult.

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I find it hard to believe that the IOD as far away as the Indian Ocean has drastically had a big impact on weather patterns in our small part of the world 1000s of miles away.  I find it easier to believe that a strong ENSO anomaly either way affects weather patterns over North America which is where the UK's Atlantic weather originates from on the opposite side of the Atlantic, and close to solar maximum tends to lead to a stronger vortex which in turn makes it more difficult for northern blocking to develop, but is there evidence from previous year's strong IODs that have led to poor winters for cold in the UK?  

A lot of UK weather in part is driven by what happens in the Tropics. 

The strong +IOD signal in Autumn produced a significant and persistent area of strong trade winds over the Indian Ocean subduing angular momentum and in the context of no strong El Niño event tropical forcing was either weak or centred over the west Pacific. 

The event ended in mid December and we did see strong tropical forcing (albeit in poor short term phases) which is why we have seen the vortex weaken now but unless we get another high amplitude event to attack the vortex again or passage east of the dateline to favourable phases, there won’t be a massive change.

In essence for me the IOD event subdued tropical convection until January allowing a strong vortex to form and since we can’t always strike it lucky on the first punch, a mediocre background pattern has meant that the vortex will probably persist until late Feb without significant weakening (mediocre in the QBO and solar being good but ENSO and PDO being somewhat mute).

[mb018538]

I don't have the fact and figures to hand....can anyone shed any light?

It's been a relentlessly mild winter for the UK, and pretty much all of western Europe. 

SSTs in Brighton are currently 10.3c, they should be heading down towards 8c at this time of year. With no cold weather in prospect soon, is there any correlation between the warmer seas/land masses and following spring/summer weather?

[jethro]

A year ago today it started snowing here, it snowed relentlessly for over 24 hours leading to this. 12 months on and we're still waiting for autumn to end and winter to begin. Oh how I wish I had a time machine.

[jules216]

Last of winter hooray here this morning, forecast is for 8 to 10C tomorrow and Sunday which will melt most of our precious snow that fell in Tuesday, perhaps chance of few cm next week on Wednesday and that will be it for winter most likely

[Froze were the Days]

1 hour ago, jethro said:

A year ago today it started snowing here, it snowed relentlessly for over 24 hours leading to this. 12 months on and we're still waiting for autumn to end and winter to begin. Oh how I wish I had a time machine.

Lucky you got that!...the synoptic situation didn't look that fantastic with a front sliding SE but you were on the right side of marginal. Where I am we had a brief slush fest overnight on the 29th of a cm and that was the highlight of the winter.

[jethro]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Lucky you got that!...the synoptic situation didn't look that fantastic with a front sliding SE but you were on the right side of marginal. Where I am we had a brief slush fest overnight on the 29th of a cm and that was the highlight of the winter.

Very lucky indeed. February is usually the best month for a chance of snow around here, Feb 6th 2009, the snow was even deeper. Being on the Mendips helps too.

[MP-R]

The synoptic situation was perfect for the snow that was delivered - a great event it was! It saved last winter from being a dud.

[Gord]

4 hours ago, jethro said:

A year ago today it started snowing here, it snowed relentlessly for over 24 hours leading to this. 12 months on and we're still waiting for autumn to end and winter to begin. Oh how I wish I had a time machine.

That was a painful day for us in the West Midlands. It was forecasted for us until about 24 hours beforehand when it became clear the risk had edged south.

Even then, we still were expecting a bit of snow and maybe even a light covering. In the end, not one flake of snow fell here...not one.

But that's the way it goes sometimes. I'd rather be that close then the situation we're in now! At least it means someone on our muddy brown little island can enjoy it!

Edited January 31, 2020 by Gord

[knocker]

At least these are but a distant memory

A snippet from the Illustrated London News – 2 January 1847

LONDON FOG. All who are versed in our metropolitan meteorology are acquainted with those periodical visitors – “London Fogs” - a dense specimen of which, by the way, was witnessed on Thursday, the last day of dark December”

The half million of blazing coal-fires contribute the fuliginous matter, which, mingling with the vapour, produces that foggy darkness, which Londoners not inaptly term “awful”. Sometimes, it is a bottle-green colour; but, if the barometer rise, it will either totally disappear, or change into white mist. At other times, it is of the colour of pea-soup, in the midst of which the street gas appears like the pin-head lamps of old. The latter is, perhaps, the genuine 'London Fog” which but too sensibly affects the organs of respiration; and a Scotch physician has asked, if a person require half gallon of pure air per minute, how many gallons of this foul atmosphere must he, as it were, have filtered by his lungs in the course of a day? The “tottle of the whole” must be fearful, indeed.