Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Seasonal Trim]

Bored of this Winter now. Roll on Spring!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Watch the Met Office update revert back to mildness (crapness)

[Interitus]

Last night the GFS was so wrong. Now they all are 

[Lampostwatcher]

Same old story

Relying on day 7-10 charts to actually be right 

Years ago  bbc and sky news weather only predicted 4 days in advance on there forcasts

The 4th day used to change 50% of the time and was never 100% accurate 

No human or computer can see into the future accurately past day 5

 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Same old story

Relying on day 7-10 charts to actually be right 

Years ago  bbc and sky news weather only predicted 4 days in advance on there forcasts

The 4th day used to change 50% of the time and was never 100% accurate 

No human or computer can see into the future accurately past day 5

 

But the GFS got it more right than the others when it backtracked Sod’s law that any changes to mild seem to verify more than changes to cold. Maybe the models need fixing or something.

[MikeC53]

28 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

But the GFS got it more right than the others when it backtracked Sod’s law that any changes to mild seem to verify more than changes to cold. Maybe the models need fixing or something.

Yes, the model that shows milder often wins the day, not that what was promised by even the best model for cold was anything to shout about anyway.

[Don]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Watch the Met Office update revert back to mildness (crapness)

No doubt!

[jimben]

Yellow warning of wind has just been issued, so at least some excitement

[SLEETY]

Let's be honest even the ecm and ukmo were never  showing anything really potent 24 hours ago, and so it's been proven. 

This winter is definitely heading towards one of the worst ever now. 

We haven't even seen a sleet shower here, nevermind actual snow heaven forbid. 

At least last winter we had one snowfall even if it was rapidly melting by morning

 

This pathetic excuse of a winter needs to get lost. 

I'm even less confident that spring will be any different with this euro high just refusing to budge for months now. 

 

 

Edited January 30, 2020 by SLEETY

[sundog]

This winter I presume the pv is the strongest it's been since winter 2013/14?  The main difference between this winter and that is that there haven't been any cold plunges into the states which has saved us from getting bad storms. 

Edited January 30, 2020 by sundog

[mb018538]

3 hours ago, sundog said:

This winter I presume the pv is the strongest it's been since winter 2013/14?  The main difference between this winter and that is that there haven't been any cold plunges into the states which has saved us from getting bad storms. 

Here's a comparison between the two - both overall strong throughout, though 13/14 was above for the whole winter, whereas we had a dip in November/December here.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Don't see what snowfall has to do with it in places with that are exceptionally cold to begin with. More heat more moisture so it makes sense greater snowfall for these locations that are still cold. Also the cold has only really been around and within the Arctic circle. 

HELSINKI, Jan. 16 (Xinhua) -- Finland is experiencing the warmest winter in a hundred years, and the lakes in the southern part of the country may remain unfrozen for the first time in centuries, local media reported on Thursday.

Finnish meteorologist Kerttu Kotakorpi told national broadcaster Yle that across the country, the average temperature so far this January has been up to 10 degrees Celsius higher than normal, and that the latest forecasts show that the warm spell will continue.

Kotakorpi said that in Northern Ostrobothnia and Kainuu regions in northern Finland, the highest temperatures in a hundred years have been recorded in January.

The long-term average temperature in January at Kajaani Airport in the region of Kainuu was minus 11.3 degrees Celsius, but this year it is minus one degree Celsius. At Oulu Airport in Northern Ostrobothnia, the average temperature recorded in January was 0.4 degree Celsius, while the previous average temperature was minus 9.7 degrees Celsius.

As the result of the mild weather, the lakes in southern and western Finland, as well as in Ostrobothnia to the north, may not freeze over this winter for the first time on record, according to Johanna Korhonen, development manager at the Finnish Environment Institute.

Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, pointed out in his recent newspaper column that climate change is noticeable through numerous measurements, and warming is progressing both in the air and in the sea.

Taalas warned that extreme weather will continue this year and the coming years, and the trend is accelerated by the record levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

He called for political action to tackle climate change, saying that politicians needed to create the framework to enable businesses and consumers to direct their money towards good solutions for the future.

Well it hasn't only been snowfall records also cold temperature records, I am just highlighting the fact that there is also a cold side to the climate change debate and when you see desert areas such as the ones in Arizona, New Mexico and Saudi Arabia that have all had snow this winter and many of the tweets from those areas the people were saying it was the first snowfall they had seen.

[mb018538]

31 minutes ago, Donegal said:

Don't see what snowfall has to do with it in places with that are exceptionally cold to begin with. More heat more moisture so it makes sense greater snowfall for these locations that are still cold. Also the cold has only really been around and within the Arctic circle. 

HELSINKI, Jan. 16 (Xinhua) -- Finland is experiencing the warmest winter in a hundred years, and the lakes in the southern part of the country may remain unfrozen for the first time in centuries, local media reported on Thursday.

Finnish meteorologist Kerttu Kotakorpi told national broadcaster Yle that across the country, the average temperature so far this January has been up to 10 degrees Celsius higher than normal, and that the latest forecasts show that the warm spell will continue.

Kotakorpi said that in Northern Ostrobothnia and Kainuu regions in northern Finland, the highest temperatures in a hundred years have been recorded in January.

The long-term average temperature in January at Kajaani Airport in the region of Kainuu was minus 11.3 degrees Celsius, but this year it is minus one degree Celsius. At Oulu Airport in Northern Ostrobothnia, the average temperature recorded in January was 0.4 degree Celsius, while the previous average temperature was minus 9.7 degrees Celsius.

As the result of the mild weather, the lakes in southern and western Finland, as well as in Ostrobothnia to the north, may not freeze over this winter for the first time on record, according to Johanna Korhonen, development manager at the Finnish Environment Institute.

Petteri Taalas, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization, pointed out in his recent newspaper column that climate change is noticeable through numerous measurements, and warming is progressing both in the air and in the sea.

Taalas warned that extreme weather will continue this year and the coming years, and the trend is accelerated by the record levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

He called for political action to tackle climate change, saying that politicians needed to create the framework to enable businesses and consumers to direct their money towards good solutions for the future.

Nur Sultan has an average high/low of -10/-18c in January....it doesn't snow too much due to the Siberian High being dominant, but snowfall isn't a rarity, that's for sure. 

[shotski]

I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad....it’s 30th of January and I’ve been working in a t-shirt all day. How we laughed at a certain Ian Brown all those years ago when he talked of the christmas pudding ? Come back and bitten us on the ass now

bloody filtered words 

M o d e r n  E r a

Edited January 30, 2020 by shotski

[igloo]

I think most of us are just looking for spring as this winter season has just been hopeless it just isn't going to be sadly.i haven't seen a winter season where the AO is so high it's near going of the scale AGAIN by mid fed.

Edited January 30, 2020 by igloo

[Mr Frost]

29 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Nur Sultan has an average high/low of -10/-18c in January....it doesn't snow too much due to the Siberian High being dominant, but snowfall isn't a rarity, that's for sure. 

Is this was the other way round though certain folk would be banging on about it?

The last time the snowfall was that heavy was 1964 - that’s a noteworthy event.

I keep hearing about how warm Moscow has been this Winter but never heard how cold it was back in Summer? (Coldest August in recorded history with an average air temperature of 12c . (-6 below the norm)

The Moscow times reported it was the coldest Summer on record.

I do agree with @Donegal though - more heat records are being broken than cold (stating the obvious) but we will still get record snowfalls/low temperatures year in/year out somewhere in the world.

Oh and...this Winter so far in the UK and Ireland has been crap! 

Edited January 30, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Nath]

Since 1974 Ive seen at snow falling at least once every winter up until last year.  Is this going to be 2 in a row lol

[Froze were the Days]

58 minutes ago, shotski said:

I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad....it’s 30th of January and I’ve been working in a t-shirt all day. How we laughed at a certain Ian Brown all those years ago when he talked of the christmas pudding ? Come back and bitten us on the ass now

bloody filtered words 

M o d e r n  E r a

Yep! 10 years premature it seems...but the 'large teapot' is well and truly with us.

[knocker]

Just up the road from me in the great blizzard of 1891

[northwestsnow]

13 minutes ago, knocker said:

Just up the road from me in the great blizzard of 1891

Pfffft..

A dusting, i give you Oldham lancashire 1947

 

[markyo]

Still no central heating on since end of November,just not cold enough....least my gas bill will be low. What a awful Winter. Nothing at all on the horizon model wise to boast the mood,but weather will do what it wants,moaning about it doesn't help. 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

At least the days will be getting longer in February! 
 

What a complete opposite start to the decade compared with a decade ago!

Edited January 30, 2020 by prolongedSnowLover

[Stabilo19]

Disgustingly mild and sticky this evening.

Oh winter, where art thou

[Hotspur62]

Although I wasn’t expecting a colder than average winter I must say I have been really disappointed with this winter and how little cold it has given us.I thought that a few background signals were in coldies  favour going into winter(low sunspot and ENSO neutralish) and I thought that would bring us a cold spell in December and then another one in mid to late February.However, the PV formed really quickly in early December and has never looked back since and imho has scuppered any chance of cold reaching the UK(barring the odd PM flirtation).On top of this the huge area of High pressure over Southern Europe seems to be further north this year and has not allowed anything from a Northerly quadrant to push down.These 2 factors look like ruling the roost for a good deal of February too and with no SSW looking likely it looks like 2019/20 winter continues the trend of mild winters that have been the norm for the last 5/6 years.Maybe March can give us a nice surprise though I am not holding my breath on that either !!

[Mike Poole]

As this 'winter' whimpers towards its inevitable end, I want to reflect on the last near-decade since the memorable cold spell of Dec 2010 from a Central Southern England perspective.  

Since then, in my location, we have 4 significant cold and snowy periods and virtually sod all else.  They were:

• Jan 2013 - after SSW.
• Dec 2017 - marginal, I'll come back to this one.
• Mar 2018 - after SSW, the Beast From the East - actually this was two snowy periods but from the same cause. 
• Jan 2019 - after SSW, I know this was a fail for much of the country but here it delivered.

Three out of four were reliant on a SSW, the one that wasn't was 10 Dec 2017:

So marginal that we had 6 inches of beautiful snow in Wantage, but in Newbury 10 miles south they had just rain - M4 working in reverse if you like.  

Food for thought, that pictured above is not a classic snow setup for the UK, if that is all that is available excepting SSW events for the south of the country, it kind of puts in perspective the odds against us, that those of us who seek snow in the MOD each year, are fighting against...I'm not going to suggest a cause for that, it is not the right thread, but I think it is very sad...