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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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1 hour ago, knocker said:

Not going to happen but interesting 850mb temps in Europe resulting from the latest amplification and subsequent trough disruption

gfs-deterministic-natl_wide-z500_anom-0666400.thumb.png.c471c2719437f2d7891437c1c6564bc7.pnggfs-deterministic-france-t850-0666400.thumb.png.ac252e3652e6d9f99ac72a2cbd32244d.png

That is awful the colour scaling on that second map.  It's natural instinct to think blue is cold and red is warm. 

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9 hours ago, Don said:

You could take a trip to the Mendip hills.

I quite often do in marginal situations. If it’s worth chasing for though, there won’t be any need to go to the Mendips.

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14 hours ago, Don said:

Good to see Marco taking note.  This won't please those looking forward to spring, but I hope that after an awful winter so far for cold/snow lovers, early spring at least will be cold and potentially snowy.  For those who want a hot summer, don't fret as a cold spring certainly does not preclude this.  Look at 2013!

Yep and March 2018 certainly did not stop one of the hottest summers on record from happening ?

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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49 minutes ago, LRD said:

Look at the Azores high. Just LOOK AT IT

image.thumb.png.dd51a3aa748eb18720f228d204314d21.png

Completely bloated northwards. It's incredible and 'extreme' in its own way. Anyone saying this is normal* winter weather is very wrong (if it was normal the CET wouldn't be running ridiculously high for this month. So, by definition, it isn't normal)

Even at the end of the run...

image.thumb.png.73b8028ff486677dc414da38b2727155.png

...it is STILL on our SW doorstep. Barely moves

ECM has it slightly further out of the way but still an utterly pathetic chart for 'winter'

image.thumb.png.a095096ddd608bd328c87cc18245ee8d.png

This so-called winter could be right up there (or down there depending on your perspective) with 1988-89 and 1997-98. Awful

 

*although, having said that, this could be the new 'normal'

I am already starting to think about what this "stuck" pattern will mean for summer - hot or will solar minimum, smoke and volcanic activity result in a poor summer with little distinction between seasons. Erring on the side of the latter unfortunately.

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18 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

I am already starting to think about what this "stuck" pattern will mean for summer - hot or will solar minimum, smoke and volcanic activity result in a poor summer with little distinction between seasons. Erring on the side of the latter unfortunately.

I worry if we can't break out of these prolonged periods of overcast skies even within high pressure systems, sunshine amounts could be lower than average and therefore keeping the temperatures down too I'd have thought 

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You can guarantee in summer we will perfect charts for winter. Faint hopes that a change may come if we get a warming event in the Stratosphere. So something may drop from the models fairly suddenly but I wouldn't hold my breath. So the year without an winter looks set to continue. 

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37 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

I am already starting to think about what this "stuck" pattern will mean for summer - hot or will solar minimum, smoke and volcanic activity result in a poor summer with little distinction between seasons. Erring on the side of the latter unfortunately.

I think for me in the SE of England we will have another warm summer, which is great and the more positive side of the Az High's continued bloatedness. We haven't had a genuinely poor summer down here since 2012 (and even then, August turned out quite nice). Summers since 1989 have been, generally good, with some exceptions obviously. 

The sun is too strong for cloudy highs in summer but they can happen. Quite rare though. That weird spell in June 2019 was an example I guess. For the East of the country anyway

Anyway, I'll leave it there as we're straying off topic

GFS 6z seems stuck at 114hrs on Wetterzentrale

Edited by LRD
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7 minutes ago, LRD said:

I think for me in the SE of England we will have another warm summer, which is great and the more positive side of the Az High's continued bloatedness. We haven't had a genuinely poor summer down here since 2012 (and even then, August turned out quite nice). Summers since 1989 have been, generally good, with some exceptions obviously. 

The sun is too strong for cloudy highs in summer but they can happen. Quite rare though. That weird spell in June 2019 was an example I guess. For the East of the country anyway

Anyway, I'll leave it there as we're straying off topic

GFS 6z seems stuck at 114hrs on Wetterzentrale

Probably too embarrassed to come out 

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3 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Probably too embarrassed to come out 

Ha! Yeah probably. Let's face it, though, surely it can't be any worse than the 0z run. Or can it...?

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Despite one of the most snowless winters in many years I am saved by incredible inversion cold.January might only end 1C above 1981-2010 here. Lakes are up to 20cm deep frozen and no snow to clear which makes great skating conditions. It could have been much worse if we were to be blown by westerlies but no chance for those in our valley. I am only now appreciating how great location I live in. Latest figures over the board from Czech Republic revealed 55% increase of British citizens moving there to live in last year! Could central Europe be the atractive region to live in? 

20200125_133806.jpg

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20 minutes ago, fromey said:

This has been posted in the start thread, if this comes of and it is a big if we could end up with nothing!

0F275536-D0C5-4BBC-B80A-1BBDC3901C4F.jpeg

So basically whether we get a SSW or not, the result for western Europe is mild. I'd rather we don't get a SSW if it is going to waste the Arctic cold to North America and start spring on the wrong foot for the Arctic ice.

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6 minutes ago, karyo said:

So basically whether we get a SSW or not, the result for western Europe is mild. I'd rather we don't get a SSW if it is going to waste the Arctic cold to North America and start spring on the wrong foot for the Arctic ice.

The probability of a mild outcome makes that the default forecast, however from a quick check of the usual suspects on twitter I think it's fair to say that no one really knows for certain. 

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1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

Shall we just wait and see what actually happens before we start throwing our toys out the pram?

This and the strato thread are for discussing what the models are showing for the next few days and weeks. If it is to wait and see what happens then this will be a current conditions thread.

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1 hour ago, karyo said:

So basically whether we get a SSW or not, the result for western Europe is mild. I'd rather we don't get a SSW if it is going to waste the Arctic cold to North America and start spring on the wrong foot for the Arctic ice.

Well, that would be typical of winter 2019/20!  However, as others have said, we will just have to wait and see.

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I can't help thinking we might see a completely Snowless winter, had winters before where we've seen little or no laying Snow but never a winter without a single flake, even a frost is rare this winter.

Always seems to be hints of something wintry on horizon but always disappears nearer time.

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Just noticed that there’s only been one night below freezing here this month, while the weather station at Leeds University hasn’t gone below freezing at all.

12 days have been above 10C, 3 above 13C.

A dry month though with only 31mm so far.

Edited by cheese
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5 hours ago, jules216 said:

Despite one of the most snowless winters in many years I am saved by incredible inversion cold.January might only end 1C above 1981-2010 here. Lakes are up to 20cm deep frozen and no snow to clear which makes great skating conditions. It could have been much worse if we were to be blown by westerlies but no chance for those in our valley. I am only now appreciating how great location I live in. Latest figures over the board from Czech Republic revealed 55% increase of British citizens moving there to live in last year! Could central Europe be the atractive region to live in? 

20200125_133806.jpg

Most on here would get their knickers in a knot about faux cold and a lack of snow but if you said to me I could pay a modest sum of money and for the whole of next winter we could be sat under an inversion with freezing fog, ice days and frozen lakes I’d sign for it right now. 

Edited by trickydicky
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21 minutes ago, cheese said:

Just noticed that there’s only been one night below freezing here this month, while the weather station at Leeds University hasn’t gone below freezing at all.

12 days have been above 10C, 3 above 13C.

A dry month though with only 31mm so far.

That must be highly unusual for your neck of the woods, cheese?

I've managed 5 here. Poor compared to last year, but not as bad as 2018.

I'm on my 5th month in a row for 100mm+. January is currently as 115mm.

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9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That must be highly unusual for your neck of the woods, cheese?

I've managed 5 here. Poor compared to last year, but not as bad as 2018.

I'm on my 5th month in a row for 100mm+. January is currently as 115mm.

Do you have any comparative data on hours of sunshine monthly from October to end Jan?

my impression for Dorset i s that we may be nearing a record low for that period - when not raining is has generally been about 100% cloud cover. Very few bright sunny days and last week possibly the first 'nearly dry' week through that period?

what other counties similar?

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8 minutes ago, egret said:

Do you have any comparative data on hours of sunshine monthly from October to end Jan?

my impression for Dorset i s that we may be nearing a record low for that period - when not raining is has generally been about 100% cloud cover. Very few bright sunny days and last week possibly the first 'nearly dry' week through that period?

what other counties similar?

https://warehamwx.co.uk/graphs_historic.php

Click 'By Month' in the sunshine column. 

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1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

That must be highly unusual for your neck of the woods, cheese?

I've managed 5 here. Poor compared to last year, but not as bad as 2018.

I'm on my 5th month in a row for 100mm+. January is currently as 115mm.

Yes very unusual. Didn’t realise how few poor it had been. Leeds city centre did have two frost-free months in 1990 - Jan and Feb - but not since then. It’s obviously highly urbanised though with ever-increasing development so they’ll probably become more common in the future.

We’ve probably been lucky with the rain. 

Edited by cheese
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It remains a never ending mystery to me why the cold and ice lovers seem to feel that they deserve more than the rest of us mere mortals. As witnessed by the oft repeated saying, or words to that effect, "God, do we ever deserve it" at the possibility of crippling snow and ice sometime in the next six months. I mean, do they contribute more to the Cornish destitute fund? No; the survivors of the 47, 62-3 winters fund? No. So essentially they are just a bunch of whingers who are not getting their sweeties ?

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