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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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9 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Beware the Ides of Smarch!:help:

Yes smarch is fast approaching and it brings with it much smarchiness

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15 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Yes smarch is fast approaching and it brings with it much smarchiness

With lots of Columbian Smarching Powder? 🌨️

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15 hours ago, Wimbledon88 said:

And  - 27c in 1995

And  - 24c in 2010

Much more recent. 

Interesting reading the monthly summaries on the Met Office and Met Eireann sites, all the way back to the 50s.

Not much has changed. Several long stretches of successive winters, most of the 70s for example l, without any severe cold.

2010 minimum was -22.3 deg not -24deg.

No severe cold in the 70s?

1970 -21.1 Carnwath (Strathclyde), West Linton (Borders) 7 January

1971 -12.8 Braemar 4 January

1972 -18.5 Moorhouse (Cumbria) 31 January

1973 -21.2 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 15 February

1974 -10.2 Lagganlia (Highland) 14 February

1975 -11.4 Balmoral 8 February

1976 -16.2 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 5 December

1977 -18.7 Lagganlia (Highland) 17 January

1978 -22.0 Keith (Grampian) 20 February

1979 -24.6 Carnwath (Strathclyde) 13 January

4 years with sub -20 deg,there have only been 3 in the last 25 years!

Edited by hillbilly

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Just looking at the solar analogues for top 20 spotless years and the only one close is the winter of 1877. That had a very mild February but a cold March.

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Just as I feared. The high slipping away and the grey damp Atlantic air takes over - yuk! 

Thoroughly depressing after a couple of bright days with early frosts. 

Edited by phil nw.

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2 hours ago, swfc said:

Well I've seen 3-4 frost's this winter and not one wintry shower.thats pretty incredible for here .I remember in late November one or two respected members going for winter touch down mid december.it then became early mid January and now it's sounding like march ?I guess the meto have been spot on altho we are in I suppose normal default situation .roll on a nice warm spring and put this winter to bed 

Its no different to last year from the Met though! First it was mid December, then pushed out to late December, then mid January, followed by mid to late January, and then a big early February! Then they got bored of issuing it and reverted back to the norm! I take my hat off to the ones who put there credentials on the line by making such a brave winter forecast of cold, especially being as the LRF were having non of it! My only concern would be this... The cold forecasts they issued... Was this a forecast of what they were really hoping for, rather than what was likely... Crewe cold is a big winter lover, but he was still brave enough to call it as he thought was most likely, rather than what he wanted to see. But credit to everyone who makes the call and obviously they put alot of work and effort into making these forecasts. It's probably obvious now that many did not take into account the IOD situation! Perhaps tamara had some idea on this when she made her early season call! It would certainly be good to hear her thoughts on this. Also I noticed catacol was much more subdued with regards to getting something really notable this winter than he was last year... Last year he was seriously disappointed by the way it turned out, but thus year he has been much more relaxed in his approach! So obviously he wasn't expecting to much to start with, but like he said recently, a bad winter is surely just around the corner now! Our just rewards will come. 👍

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The fact that Monday's sunrise has been the highlight of the winter so far for me pretty much sums up how awful this 'winter' has been up until this point.

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49 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Its no different to last year from the Met though! First it was mid December, then pushed out to late December, then mid January, followed by mid to late January, and then a big early February! Then they got bored of issuing it and reverted back to the norm! I take my hat off to the ones who put there credentials on the line by making such a brave winter forecast of cold, especially being as the LRF were having non of it! My only concern would be this... The cold forecasts they issued... Was this a forecast of what they were really hoping for, rather than what was likely... Crewe cold is a big winter lover, but he was still brave enough to call it as he thought was most likely, rather than what he wanted to see. But credit to everyone who makes the call and obviously they put alot of work and effort into making these forecasts. It's probably obvious now that many did not take into account the IOD situation! Perhaps tamara had some idea on this when she made her early season call! It would certainly be good to hear her thoughts on this. Also I noticed catacol was much more subdued with regards to getting something really notable this winter than he was last year... Last year he was seriously disappointed by the way it turned out, but thus year he has been much more relaxed in his approach! So obviously he wasn't expecting to much to start with, but like he said recently, a bad winter is surely just around the corner now! Our just rewards will come. 👍

The met forecast quite a cold snowy winter on there forecast and Wasa bust.im not sure there's anypoint in labouring the point

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It's a strange old winter.

Miami had its coldest night last night since December 2010 with a low of 4.4c. It's that cold iguana's are falling out of the trees.

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

The fact that Monday's sunrise has been the highlight of the winter so far for me pretty much sums up how awful this 'winter' has been up until this point.

Good to see you post again Quicksilver, I was only wandering the other day how quite you had been on the model thread! I take it nothing about this winter has really come as a suprise to you mate. Any thoughts on the the final 3rd?

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9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Good to see you post again Quicksilver, I was only wandering the other day how quite you had been on the model thread! I take it nothing about this winter has really come as a suprise to you mate. Any thoughts on the the final 3rd?

We'll probably get a sleety northerly in April knowing our luck, followed by the 'if only it was winter' posts. We will see a cold winter soon I suspect but I don't think luck will be on our side this year. November was actually quite blocked as well but it's as if someone just flicked a switch come winter...

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Colder in Florida than UK!

Strange, what's going on with the World weather wise?

Edited by snowblizzard

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10 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Colder in Florida than UK!

Strange, what's going on with in the World weather wise?

Parts of Florida, esp the more Northern parts, are prone to short cold snaps most Winters. The South onlyoccasional Winters, so the current Miami spell is much less frequent occurence, according to sources.

Edited by Bristle boy

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9 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Colder in Florida than UK!

Strange, what's going on with in the World weather wise?

"Don't worry, it is just a hoax!" 

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1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

Colder in Florida than UK!

Strange, what's going on with the World weather wise?

Cold isn't unheard of in Florida. Especially northern parts of the state. Tallahassee's record low is -19C would you believe. Obviously in tropical Miami where coconuts grow it's more rare but even here frost has been recorded in the past & snow falling but not settling. Orlando has experienced settling snow in the past. The only place in the contiguous US never to record an air frost has been Key West in the far SW of Florida.

Edited by Frost HoIIow

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Such a boring, horrible winterless winter this is becoming.

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52 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just for good measure - how about a full house of crapness completed by February and March.

 

 

image.thumb.png.04d4cf11c8cbd4f645170761b2c6c229.png

image.png

Beautiful 

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52 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just for good measure - how about a full house of crapness completed by February and March.

 

 

image.thumb.png.04d4cf11c8cbd4f645170761b2c6c229.png

image.png

Thanks weather gods!  You have to laugh really! 😂

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We get day after day of crap charts and mild muck then every now and then we get a couple of models that give us a few chinks of light to get us all interested again and then the very next day it’s all doom n gloom again as the mild damp crap all comes flying back in.

surely at some point during February we will get a break and something to get us all interested again, tbh we only need a cold blast with a decent amount of snow and this really shocking autumn will be put to the back of the mind

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14 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

We get day after day of crap charts and mild muck then every now and then we get a couple of models that give us a few chinks of light to get us all interested again and then the very next day it’s all doom n gloom again as the mild damp crap all comes flying back in.

surely at some point during February we will get a break and something to get us all interested again, tbh we only need a cold blast with a decent amount of snow and this really shocking autumn will be put to the back of the mind

It makes me think about the law of Averages and the odds. This has to be unbelievably bad luck or something very drastic is happening to our weather that even though we get favourable synoptics and background signals, somehow it defies these signals and dross endures. At some Point therefore, it has to break.... Surely??

What's the longest pattern we have been stuck in and what were the underlying reasons for this?

Edited by Snowfish2

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I posted a few days ago, quite right those wanting cold and snow are bemoaning this winter so far.. and as I pointed out, we have been here so many times before in winters since 87/88, we've had whole winters equally devoid of anything especially cold or snowy, many have brought no days with snow cover to many parts of the south at least, and for the north including here, just the odd morning or two.. 

Winter 88/89, 89/90, 91/92, 97/98, 99/00, 06/07, 07/08, 13/14, 15/16, 16/17 and last year, all equally devoid of much cold or snow.. we have been drawn a very short straw since 12/13 it seems, and its this factor more than anything that is grating people probably this year more than any, as apart for the late Feb 2018 / early March cold spell, we have had nothing especially cold or snowy (not just a one day event as happened in Dec 17..), since March 2013, that's 7 long years now... patience comes to those who wait, but many people's patience is now at an all time low.. 

Not ruling out a potent cold spell with some snow before March is out (note I am saying March not February), as March can pack a cold snowy punch as potent as anything in Dec-Feb. So we have 2 and half months left to go yet.. never throw in the towel until the final whistle blows!

 

Edited by damianslaw

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I guess beggars can't be choosers, but anything in March I find just melts away too quickly. I love snowy weather in December & January, where the snow freezes over, giving that crunch when you walk on it (a weird way to describe it but you know what I mean).

I remember the mid-March 2013 spell - whilst we had an amazing fall, the 6-8" that fell on unplowed, unsalted roads/paths etc. was nearly gone by the next day. We had a similar fall in Jan 2013 and whilst air temperatures were largely the same, it stayed around for at least a week before milder air broke through. 

The Beast from the East event in 2018 brought about 8" of snow to York, and even though the air was bitterly cold, the drip drip drip of snow on rooftops was evident and, again, unsalted roads were melting fast. 

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3 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I guess beggars can't be choosers, but anything in March I find just melts away too quickly. I love snowy weather in December & January, where the snow freezes over, giving that crunch when you walk on it (a weird way to describe it but you know what I mean).
 

Not only that, but snowy weather at the darkest period of the year adds to it; waking up when it's still dark, with that 'glow' from the fallen snow. It's not quite the same in late February/ early March when it's a lot lighter.

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1 hour ago, damianslaw said:

As others have commented, ECM offering something a bit different in the 5-7 day timeframe with a more southerly tracking jet, enabling cold uppers to flood northern half of UK which would increase risk of relatively low level snow for some. However, it then follows GFS in bringing the azores high back into play, and its back to square one, with a mild SW flow, and the jet reverting more to a SW-NE pattern.

GFS is showing some colder polar maritime airflow by Sunday into north as well, lasting a couple of days or so.

Can't see any real shake up of the pattern of the winter so far as we move into February, perhaps a slightly more amplified flow, with the azores high ridging NE, then backing away to the SW, with a westerly then shortlived dig of NW air, before it comes back again. A typical atlantic pattern.

 

A stuck record and an incredibly boring song at that 

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