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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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New seasons for the UK:

Spriiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiing 

Smr

Autuuuuuuuuuuuuuumn

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4 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Its true the young generation are nesher than ever,I heard something on the bbc this morning slightly off topic,one of the major stores I`ve never heard of is closing down,and one young girl said I`d rather shop online because this weather is too cold to go out unbeilevable.

The older generation yes they certainly do feel the cold 80 years old and over

-1.2c last night but we get those sort of temps in april,and they say there cold with no wind.

But the "younger generation" don't issue these cold alerts - that's the fault of the met office, which isn't run by youngsters from what I can see.

You're blaming the wrong people for your frustrations! 🤣

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"Harsh" frost across the south last night - between 0 and -4..

You have to laugh! What a pathetic winter so far. 😉

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45 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

But the "younger generation" don't issue these cold alerts - that's the fault of the met office, which isn't run by youngsters from what I can see.

You're blaming the wrong people for your frustrations! 🤣

But it isn't cold for January, it's absolutely pathetic.

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Wonder how many more weeks before a massive pattern change takes place and the majority of Europe goes bitterly cold.I have seen it before with minus 30 at the end of March in Sweden etc and sub-Zero in Mid March even here on the coast.I expect huge payback from this mildness over Europe.

That’s whats keeping my interest in the models and how long before they pick up on the change.

Its certainly been a tedious winter though chasing non existent cold for months.

 

Edited by SLEETY

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3 hours ago, MikeC53 said:

But it isn't cold for January, it's absolutely pathetic.

But I think the assumption is that the younger generation feel colder and so cold alerts may be aimed at them, but statistically the elderly are more vulnerable to cold than the young. So cold alerts are aimed more at older rather than younger folks!

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Dry sunny and cold with little wind....nice.

That's 4 days in a row below average for mid winter (CET) zone.

January 1916, your still the king.....

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4 hours ago, MikeC53 said:

But it isn't cold for January, it's absolutely pathetic.

More people die in the UK from cold-related issues than in Sweden even when taking population into account. This is largely because a lot of our homes are poorly insulated compared to Swedish homes. Even in a relatively mild winter you still have thousands of excess deaths, largely the elderly as you’d expect. Therefore it makes sense that the Met Office will issue a cold weather alert for a few chilly days.

Whether young people are used to cold weather or not is besides the point as they are generally healthy and fit enough to deal with it. People over 65 more often than not aren’t.

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4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.84169f7cfdfbef36b4a70232c0ff8411.png

Look at the state of that!

Truly horrible mate! 😫

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5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Truly horrible mate! 😫

That's a definite trend there and not a nice one! ☹️

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1 hour ago, cheese said:

Even in a relatively mild winter you still have thousands of excess deaths

Your figures? Suspect they may be flawed,Yes the elderly are effected but the same is said of summer months when high humidity is involved. Sweden really suffered in the last heat wave,even more than here due to their infrastructure and type's of building,far more than the UK. 

Edited by markyo

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18 minutes ago, Don said:

That's a definite trend there and not a nice one! ☹️

I think i will accept what David Attenborough says over what Donald Trump says!!

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16 minutes ago, markyo said:

Your figures? Suspect they may be flawed,Yes the elderly are effected but the same is said of summer months when high humidity is involved. Sweden really suffered in the last heat wave,even more than here due to their infrastructure and type's of building,far more than the UK. 

https://www.e3g.org/docs/E3G_NEA_Cold_homes_and_excess_winter_deaths_2018.02.pdf

Quote

The UK has the sixth-highest EWM index out of 30 European countries. The fact that of the five countries with higher excess winter mortality than the UK, four are ‘warm’ southern European countries, highlights what Liddell et al. refer to as the excess winter mortality paradox, in which people are more likely to die in such countries during cold snaps than in northern countries where winters are consistently severe: Finland and Iceland are amongst the countries with the lowest EWM index.
The authors highlight how numerous factors contribute to the paradox, such as higher spending on heating in northern countries being an accepted necessity, the thermal efficiency of building fabric, and different lifestyles in response to cold weather (being indoors more, wearing more suitable clothing outdoors).

Plenty of people die during heatwaves, but we’re specifically talking about winter mortality, not summer mortality. There’s really no good excuse for the UK (and Ireland too for that matter) having a higher winter mortality rate than countries with significantly colder winters.

Edited by cheese

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Had three nice cool crisp sunny days in a row here, can't  complain about those.

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3 hours ago, Stabilo19 said:

But I think the assumption is that the younger generation feel colder and so cold alerts may be aimed at them, but statistically the elderly are more vulnerable to cold than the young. So cold alerts are aimed more at older rather than younger folks!

Not many youngsters work outdoors these days in comparison to say 40 or so years ago, consequently they haven't become hardened to the cold.

Believe me , there's a big difference between clowning around in the snow for a few hours , and spending 8 hours a day,40 a week in freezing temperatures with the wind behind it.  . Thankfully, I don't  have to do it anymore, but  I can recall being so bl....dy cold back in the 70s/80s  that I did'nt know what to do with myself .

Edited by 78/79

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14 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The horror show for coldies continues.

The NW snap has turned into a cooler blip and January looks like ending on a very unsettled and windy spell of weather.

One things clear from the winter so far , any amplification shown in the models past day 6 needs to be viewed with a huge pinch of salt .

We’ve seen this flattened out nearer the time.

There’s good agreement on the overall pattern between the ECM and GFS at day ten.

The only remotely interesting feature is the Canadian high which shows up on days 9 and 10.

This could slow down the relentless train of low pressure and might deliver a glimmer of hope if we can push the jet a bit further south and east as the limpet Euro high is refusing to leave the scene quietly.

We now look like being left with February to salvage this dismal excuse of a winter !

I'm still trying to be positive, ten days to the start of February so still a long way to go. Most of us can remember times when things have changed very quickly to a colder scenario in the past, right out of the blue so to speak, surely there must be a sting in the tale of this horrendous so called winter. 

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22 minutes ago, snowray said:

I'm still trying to be positive, ten days to the start of February so still a long way to go. Most of us can remember times when things have changed very quickly to a colder scenario in the past, right out of the blue so to speak, surely there must be a sting in the tale of this horrendous so called winter. 

I’d be very shocked if we go through the next 10ish weeks without having a cold spell /snap. So that’s the rest of Jan , feb and March to get a decent wintry spell of weather . If we don’t get anything meaningful it will definitely go down as a one of the worst winters I can remember. I really think one will come tho and make this forum feel so much better lol . 

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10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I’d be very shocked if we go through the next 10ish weeks without having a cold spell /snap. So that’s the rest of Jan , feb and March to get a decent wintry spell of weather . If we don’t get anything meaningful it will definitely go down as a one of the worst winters I can remember. I really think one will come tho and make this forum feel so much better lol . 

I'd love a spell lasting a week or so at least, but a snap would suffice at this stage of proceedings, a couple of days with a bit of snow around would give me my fix. 

Or maybe we do need a spell.... 

Calling Harry Potter...any witches or wizards on here by any chance?😜

Edited by snowray

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well at least we can put to bed the myth that longer range models are always pish. Correct call at 3 month lead time is not too bad at all.

Of course, this only really applies to a +NAO set up as they are seemingly quite atrocious at dealing with anything outside of the climatological 'norm'

What are your thoughts about Feb and March then Crewe?

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

The horror show for coldies continues.

The NW snap has turned into a cooler blip and January looks like ending on a very unsettled and windy spell of weather.

One things clear from the winter so far , any amplification shown in the models past day 6 needs to be viewed with a huge pinch of salt .

We’ve seen this flattened out nearer the time.

There’s good agreement on the overall pattern between the ECM and GFS at day ten.

The only remotely interesting feature is the Canadian high which shows up on days 9 and 10.

This could slow down the relentless train of low pressure and might deliver a glimmer of hope if we can push the jet a bit further south and east as the limpet Euro high is refusing to leave the scene quietly.

We now look like being left with February to salvage this dismal excuse of a winter !

Forget  February Nick....very very low chance imo

 

 BFTP

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14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well at least we can put to bed the myth that longer range models are always pish. Correct call at 3 month lead time is not too bad at all.

Of course, this only really applies to a +NAO set up as they are seemingly quite atrocious at dealing with anything outside of the climatological 'norm'

No Aaron.....they’ll go mild EVERY YEAR without fail.  
 

BFTP

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Just now, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Forget  February Nick....very very low chance imo

 

 BFTP

Think we might get something in the last week of Feb blast.

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