Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Froze were the Days]

5 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

There was plenty of northern blocking last summer which eventually caught up with us and the vast majority of Augusts have been poor for as long back as i can remember.

Augusts haven't been poor or poorer in general across the United Kingdom due to northern blocking though...anyway last summer's -NAO other than June largely didn't effect this country, the -NAO index was largely due to Greenland's consistent high pressure, between 60 and 50 degree latitude in the North Atlantic experienced more low pressure systems either to the west or north than recent summers.

[78/79]

Been a pleasure to be out and about today, blue skies, sunshine , and a sharp frost to start,  100% improvement on the Atlantic driven s....te  that we've had to endure since October. A winter of this would do me just fine. 

[Sunny76]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

Well today was close to spring warmth around here anyway, went out along the Thames, bright sunshine and the water looked blue, birds were out, incredible stuff really felt like mid/late spring. This is the third day of wall to wall sunshine and barely a frost, a bit crisp in the mornings but that's about it.

I think I would have caught a suntan if I'd stayed down there much longer.

 

I wouldn't class today as 'spring warmth'. Not until temps in the daytime exceed 13-15c in sunny conditions, and even then there's a chill in the air.

Plus, the sun doesn't really feel that strong until about early march time.

It's nice to have some cold dry sunny weather, but its not feeling like spring. But, we can agree to disagree on that point.

[Snowyowl9]

2 hours ago, SLEETY said:

Severe cold alert, do me a favour. 

Max temps of 7c are now deemed severely cold, thats slightly above average. 

What would they class sub-zero max temps then, the start of the new ice age, lol

 

Woke generation can`t handle this type of cold,and its a westerly flow today which has made it slightly milder after yesterday.

[Don]

2 hours ago, Jason M said:

Wowzer!! I hadn't realized we were in a cold spell . A bit of frost and fog used to be 'normal' for January. How times change!

Indeed, just imagine what would happen if we had a January 1987 repeat!

[topo]

 

New record for January temperature in # Trøndelag Between 13 and 14, the station at Rissa measured 14.0 degrees. The old record was 13.8 degrees, set in 1971 on Vinjeøra

 

 

[Don]

13 minutes ago, topo said:

 

New record for January temperature in # Trøndelag Between 13 and 14, the station at Rissa measured 14.0 degrees. The old record was 13.8 degrees, set in 1971 on Vinjeøra

 

 

They just keep tumbling..... 

[Summer Sun]

Record high temperatures in central Norway and snow in south east Spain.

Come spring it will swap around

[feb1991blizzard]

This really is the Aaron March - Northerlies, Easterlies, bitter cold which carries on right the way through into April with reloads as late as April 18th.

[MP-R]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This really is the Aaron March - Northerlies, Easterlies, bitter cold which carries on right the way through into April with reloads as late as April 18th.

Ugh. No thanks!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Ugh. No thanks!

Yes please  -  i would have it all year around please.

[stodge]

Evening all

Obviously, it's been a very disappointing winter for most on here though today was glorious in the south if you like your winter days crisp and bright.

Whether it was the strength of the IOD or some other factors a mild winter was called by most LRFs way back so we can't really be surprised. 

I'm cautiously optimistic March will be a wintry month this year and possibly April too and even in London snow can fall and settle in late March and early April. 

Given all snow in the UK is transient (apart from the odd Scottish crag), I'll take a couple of transient spring snowfalls.

As an aside, I assume the Tropospheric Polar Vortex has existed for millennia - I also presume it has tended to the same locations or have there been periods in history when it was further west or stronger over Siberia? 

[Catacol]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Interesting thoughts from Jon hammond from his latest blog. A strengthening jet stream will attempt to reinstate the dominance of Atlantic weather systems!! However the relevance of pulses of atmospheric energy that are now emerging into the Western Pacific. This influence will tend to promote more blocking. Intensely cold air will build to the NE, this will serve to deflect the jet SE, on one side of this boundary, there's an enhanced risk of snow, while on the other side, mild air will dominate. So February still very much up in the air, with a realistic possibility of colder Conditions than earlier in the winter. 

This is possible and in essence is the lagged response to Pacific convection activity trying now to penetrate the maritimes.

But the ying/yang of tropics/pole has swung in favour of the pole with downwards propagation of westerlies proving dominant. While the spike in Pacific westerlies is a good one I don’t think it is going to produce a sustained block where we would want it to properly reverse the pattern and produce real cold rather than the current marginal frost situation. 

I try and read a lot, and I’m gradually coming to the conclusion that the fixed Indian Ocean record breaking positive dipole pattern has been the clincher this winter. Statistically we are not quite in the low solar sweet spot, ENSO has been generally neutral and the QBO just transitioning..but what has really hammered us over the last 4 weeks has been the sustained standing wave forcing from the Indian Ocean that has fixed the wave pattern in a predominantly phase 4/5 location if you want to see it in terms of MJO... and without the usual west to east progression of the wave signal this longer than usual projection of patterns conducive to vortex enhancement has created a context that is now tough for a momentum spike to shift. Not impossible - still hoping for a shift in the prognosis over the next 10 days but I can feel my confidence ebbing away. We might have some transient interest in early Feb or maybe into March when the final convection cycle strikes....but hoping for another Beast scenario is a reach.

Others will argue that there isn’t enough data in strong +IOD winters to be sure....but in the same breath we know we have now had 4 strongly +IOD winters in the last 30 or so years, and the previous 3 were all mild or very mild. This one heading the same way. 4 may not be a good sample size and not every mild winter has seen a +IOD but it’s enough for me to be fairly convinced of a link given the teleconnections understanding we now have that allows us properly to interpret the impact of a standing wave forcing like this. 

So it’s tough to watch this winter now after what was a promising autumn run in. I wait to see just how much more extreme elements of our weather will become over 2020, expecting to see increasingly savage meridional wave patterns producing unusual effects...and moving towards 2020/21 we know we will have an even better solar context, a QBO in the cold weather sweet spot and further ice loss that I continue to believe leaves the vortex vulnerable early season. We could do with ENSO heading weak to moderate Niña and a really strong Atlantic SST profile developing to favour Greenland blocking, something that broadly speaking returned in 2019 until the IO interfered. 

Im quite convinced a major winter is approaching soon. Climate extremes for me pretty much guarantee it. But we may to get used to absorbing larger numbers of wet and mild winters in between. A bit like being a supporter of Scottish Rugby really. A cold winter would be very dull if it came every year. In my lifetime 1 in 5 years has produced a personally significant severe spell with snowy results and that might shift towards 1 in 6 or 1 in 7 in a climate change future but cold winters we will still see for sure.

[Stabilo19]

1 hour ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Woke generation can`t handle this type of cold,and its a westerly flow today which has made it slightly milder after yesterday.

Since when was the met office run by woke millenials? 

[Don]

16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes please  -  i would have it all year around please.

Better late than never!

[MP-R]

26 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes please  -  i would have it all year around please.

I’m sure you would lol, but as a season lover, cold and wet after mild and wet doesn’t arouse much interest...

Give me that pattern in Jan and Feb any year.

[Wilxy]

I find March to be more of a winter month than December so it will not be any surprise if a cold March does turn up or even April as well as the very cold Stratosphere finally begins to weaken and a more amplified pattern begins to take hold!

[ArHu3]

Seven years ago today, it has been so long 

[ALL ABOARD]

Ready to start chasing some warmth now.. 

Its been an abismal winter apart from the suprise snowfall I had back in November. 

Were going through a period where northern blocking is becoming harder and harder to establish.. 

I can't remember the last time we had a proper battleground scenario, its been to long.

Low solar activity affecting our weather is another one off the list of positives in regards to promoting colder UK weather. 

[Bristawl Si]

22 months ago (March 2018) - not so long ago

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

22 months ago (March 2018) - not so long ago

Seems like a flippin age!

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Seems like a flippin age!

Maybe, but it isnt 7 years ago. Short memories and all that

[ALL ABOARD]

11 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Maybe, but it isnt 7 years ago. Short memories and all that

Wasn't quite the battleground I was referring to. 

Yes indeed a good spell that occurred due to the SSW, but even then the low pressure migrated north through France. As appose to sliding against an already in situ block. 

 

[Carl46Wrexham]

10 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Of course, I called Jan as a dead duck weeks ago, i held out hope for Feb but the first of Feb now looks a complete write off.

The most wretched winter i can ever recall and i'm not far off 50 now.

One of the decreasing number of straws we have left to clutch is AMO ,we are due to see a switch in the next decade, or so i believe.

In a way this non-winter is even worse than the non-winter of 2013/14. At least in that one, the Scottish ski resorts had a huge dumping of snow. This one however has been a real dog egg. 

[PiscesStar]

4 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

In a way this non-winter is even worse than the non-winter of 2013/14. At least in that one, the Scottish ski resorts had a huge dumping of snow. This one however has been a real dog egg. 

It has been an absolute bloody shocker. In fact it beats last year which was dire in itself. I honestly didn't think it possible. Then typically., the met call it right when they said mild. Understatement.