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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Apart from the storms earlier in the week there's been nothing remotely interesting at all so far this winter.

As i said the other day,  in Hampshire you at least are compensated by decent summers.

We in the north west of England now get this crap all year round.

Edited by northwestsnow
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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As i said the other day,  in Hampshire you at least are compensated by decent summers.

We in the north west of England now get this crap all year round.

Sleet showing on the radar  for you   winter had arrived ?

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2 hours ago, jules216 said:

since November 1st I have had 2 days of snow falling each time appŕox 4cm snow fell. It is the worst winter I remember for snowfall here in Slovakia,we have plenty of inversion cold but thats it. No snow forecast for at least another 2 weeks with seasonals going for even milder February. Kudos to seasonal models, @Tamara and few others who didnt think blocking will be present,also Cohen did OK overseas. False signal caught many who believed jet stream would remain on southern trajectory in January which isnt the case,only trace precipitation here  in January so nothing managed go cross Euro high and will not do so until end of the month

Yes, the LRF models seem to have nailed it, what concerns me is there failure to get close when it's cold being predicted! It looks likely that only a major SSW could save us this winter, and after enduring 2 of them straight years running, the likelihood of a 3rd is remote. Don't get me wrong, another batch of cold winters will crop up, its the fact these batches are getting spaced further apart that concerns me. Good point on Tamara's summary during the Autumn! She as been very close to the mark and not for the 1st time. I'm pretty sure she got slated for using out dated methods by somebody as well! I don't think she will be back till spring, she's not really a winter lover anyway, but her input has been greatly missed.. 

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6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes, the LRF models seem to have nailed it, what concerns me is there failure to get close when it's cold being predicted! It looks likely that only a major SSW could save us this winter, and after enduring 2 of them straight years running, the likelihood of a 3rd is remote. Don't get me wrong, another batch of cold winters will crop up, its the fact these batches are getting spaced further apart that concerns me. Good point on Tamara's summary during the Autumn! She as been very close to the mark and not for the 1st time. I'm pretty sure she got slated for using out dated methods by somebody as well! I don't think she will be back till spring, she's not really a winter lover anyway, but her input has been greatly missed.. 

The persistence of Euro High has caught out a lot of forecasters online, even the ones who use GSDM tool, I have noticed over the pond a well respected poster named Isotherm had a large Euro trough on his January map also UK GSDM experts hinted at NW SE trajectory of jet that would be displaced south which never materialized in January. I would say kudos to GLOSEA and EC seasonal which held their ground 

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This chart from GFS must win the award for mild rampers chart of the winter season.   Horrid mild over spill and not a snowflake in sight

for many.

 

GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

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Lots of bemoaning the winter so far at the half way juncture in terms of lack of snow and cold.. and given the outlook isn't promising anything especially cold or snowy.. its no wonder.

Alas we have been here before many a time, winter 88/89, 89/90, 97/98, 99/00, 04/05, 06/07, 07/08, 13/14, 15/16, 16/17, 18/19 - 11 years... 

Plenty of winter left to deliver something cold and snowy.. 

At least we are being spared anything notably stormy and flooding hasn't been a feature either.. 

 

 

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We may as well forget about this winter now.  Outlook is pathetic past the weekend, no sign of that euro high shifting (revenge for Brexit?  Joke!) and with the daylight hours starting to open up now the window for deep cold is narrowing rapidly.  The good news is we have six months or so of torrid misery courtesy of another record-breaking summer to endure (maybe)...

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31 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Lots of bemoaning the winter so far at the half way juncture in terms of lack of snow and cold.. and given the outlook isn't promising anything especially cold or snowy.. its no wonder.

Alas we have been here before many a time, winter 88/89, 89/90, 97/98, 99/00, 04/05, 06/07, 07/08, 13/14, 15/16, 16/17, 18/19 - 11 years... 

Plenty of winter left to deliver something cold and snowy.. 

At least we are being spared anything notably stormy and flooding hasn't been a feature either.. 

 

 

2004-05 after most of the winter had been largely mild, did see a pattern change in the February, that brought an easterly and snow for some, although certainly not on the scale of the late Feb 2018 easterly, so although a largely mild winter, 2004-05 wasn't without its moments especially late on.  The others that you mention served up less than 2004-05 did. 

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4 hours ago, jules216 said:

since November 1st I have had 2 days of snow falling each time appŕox 4cm snow fell. It is the worst winter I remember for snowfall here in Slovakia,we have plenty of inversion cold but thats it. No snow forecast for at least another 2 weeks with seasonals going for even milder February. Kudos to seasonal models, @Tamara and few others who didnt think blocking will be present,also Cohen did OK overseas. False signal caught many who believed jet stream would remain on southern trajectory in January which isnt the case,only trace precipitation here  in January so nothing managed go cross Euro high and will not do so until end of the month

Some snow forecast here for this weekend. Not sure if it will stick where I am but the nearby hills should get a good covering. At last. 

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31 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

2004-05 after most of the winter had been largely mild, did see a pattern change in the February, that brought an easterly and snow for some, although certainly not on the scale of the late Feb 2018 easterly, so although a largely mild winter, 2004-05 wasn't without its moments especially late on.  The others that you mention served up less than 2004-05 did. 

Yes, it was a shame the continent had been so mild during winter 2004/05, as from a synoptic point of view, the second half of February was great.  If the continent had been colder, it could have been a great wintry spell for the UK.  However, it turned out to be a half baked easterly which provided very marginal snow events for areas of low elevation away from the east coast and when it did manage to snow, it often failed to stick or with very temporary accumulations.

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5 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Some snow forecast here for this weekend. Not sure if it will stick where I am but the nearby hills should get a good covering. At last. 

Actually I've just arrived in tropical Old Town, Bratislava and there's what looks like a dusting of snow. Might just be rime but nice all the same. 

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7 minutes ago, Don said:

Yes, it was a shame the continent had been so mild during winter 2004/05, as from a synoptic point of view, the second half of February was great.  If the continent had been colder, it could have been a great wintry spell for the UK.  However, it turned out to be a half baked easterly which provided very marginal snow events for areas of low elevation away from the east coast and when it did manage to snow, it often failed to stick or with very temporary accumulations.

Although the delivery of the Feb 2005 easterly was poor, it still statistically shows that if there has been limited cold patterns through the winter, it is still possible to get a pattern change to a favourable cold setup late in the winter, as Feb 2005 showed.

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1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

2004-05 after most of the winter had been largely mild, did see a pattern change in the February, that brought an easterly and snow for some, although certainly not on the scale of the late Feb 2018 easterly, so although a largely mild winter, 2004-05 wasn't without its moments especially late on.  The others that you mention served up less than 2004-05 did. 

Yes I was conscious I put 04-05 in the same category, in the end it delivered snow and cold, but up to this point apart from a nw flow at Christmas it had been very mild. Indeed Jan 05 was very mild. Would be good to know factors behind the pattern change in Feb..  was it ssw induced? It was abrupt and a shock to see long drawn easterlies and heralded a shift to a more buckled jet in the main right through until winter 13-14.. sometimes we were locked on warm side I.e winter 06-07 and 07-08, but more often cold side especially in summer, exception 06 and 13. Of the other years none really delivered any sustained cold rest of winter just the odd fleeting glance. March and April tended to offer colder synoptics.

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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Lots of bemoaning the winter so far at the half way juncture in terms of lack of snow and cold.. and given the outlook isn't promising anything especially cold or snowy.. its no wonder.

Alas we have been here before many a time, winter 88/89, 89/90, 97/98, 99/00, 04/05, 06/07, 07/08, 13/14, 15/16, 16/17, 18/19 - 11 years... 

Plenty of winter left to deliver something cold and snowy.. 

At least we are being spared anything notably stormy and flooding hasn't been a feature either.. 

 

 

I’m sure the residents of fishlake will be delighted to hear there has been no flooding this winter!

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55 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Although the delivery of the Feb 2005 easterly was poor, it still statistically shows that if there has been limited cold patterns through the winter, it is still possible to get a pattern change to a favourable cold setup late in the winter, as Feb 2005 showed.

Yes cold despondent snow lovers should take some comfort from what happened in Feb 05. There had been 8 long years in the main when the UK had failed to see long drawn sustained spell of easterlies in winter..  last time was Jan 97. Winter 00-01 delivered a bit but not properly until March. Dec 01 tried too but failed.. 

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Just now, mb018538 said:

I’m sure the residents of fishlake will be delighted to hear there has been no flooding this winter!

Perhaps should correct myself I was meaning through winter months December onwards and was from a local perspective. Yes there was flooding in November and we have been lucky not to see any more given how wet things have been. 

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1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Although the delivery of the Feb 2005 easterly was poor, it still statistically shows that if there has been limited cold patterns through the winter, it is still possible to get a pattern change to a favourable cold setup late in the winter, as Feb 2005 showed.

Absolutely and I'm sure many on here would not sniff at a repeat performance this year after the winter we've had to endure so far!

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Further into next week looks like a bore fest as the high sinks a little. 

A westerly drift picking up bringing more cloud and little in the way of frosts. 

The only upside is looks pretty dry away from the far north. 

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1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

The last few days nearly all the models are trying to bring in something colder from the Northwest towards month end. The trend is constant and with a bit of luck I really do think this change will develop further. The cold over Greenland is proper stuff so a Northwesterly would certainly pack a punch!

The long range forecasts were very good this year particularly musings from GP who was adamant that January would remain mild. An update from GP would be very welcome in where he sees February going?! Worth remembering that a lot of our recent Februarys were the coldest month of the whole winter so still time....

February was extremely mild last year (2019) after a fairly average January.  Feb 2017 was also very mild. In recent years the only February that fits what you are saying about it being the coldest month of the winter was 2018.  In that year February was on the cold side (2.9) after a fairly mild January.  In 2016 and 2015 February was the colder of the two months although there was not much between Jan and Feb.  Another year that brought a cold spell in the first half of February after limited cold in the winter up to that point was 2012.  Further back Feb 2005 also brought a colder pattern after limited cold in the winter up to then; so in the last 15 years the pattern has been very much variable as to if February has brought colder weather after limited cold in the earlier part of the winter or being the coldest month of the winter; cannot think that there is much that stands out in the last 15 years or so of records in this.

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Just in the middle of a month in Alberta and we have had two weeks of bone chilling temperatures.  We have has temps no higher than -32c during the day and -40c at night.

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