Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[weirpig]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Christ its proving a struggle to even register a ruddy frost.

The 00z runs confirmed my fears last night.

ie a dirty high ..

I had a couple of days were i was hoping for a change, that's evaporating again at a rate of knots.

No sign whatsoever of even the MJO having much effect on the horrific pattern.

On a brighter note it looks dry after fri for a week or so, the wind and rain just goes on and on .

Yes very much a struggle this year   goes to show that many things need to drop into favour for us to get a prolonged wintry spell  SAI  and Solar minimum   are no guarantee of snow.  On a footnote the seasonals this year  up to this point have been very accurate    This year may be a dud  ( wintry wise)  but there is always next year    

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not like me to moan gang, but my god if the weather online seasonal is on the money!!! 

Drier than average February..... Temps around average... And drier and sunnier March with temps perhaps above average!! If this comes off, I really want my money back. Has it stands I have yet to see a falling snow flake since late Feb 2018! The last significant frost was early December! A complete pigs dinner of a winter, maybe next year I won't even bother hunting for it... 

 

 

 

Its just so utterly depressing matt

We have to keep hope of a change but as the clock ticks away another horrendous attempt at a winter passes by.

 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yes very much a struggle this year   goes to show that many things need to drop into favour for us to get a prolonged wintry spell  SAI  and Solar minimum   are no guarantee of snow.  On a footnote the seasonals this year  up to this point have been very accurate    This year may be a dud  ( wintry wise)  but there is always next year    

The reality since 1987 is snow is becoming rarer and rarer.

I'm sick of reading about SA/solar minimum/MJO/Mountain torgues TBH..

Something somewhere is over riding other signals.

My money is on the warmer oceans being the culprit ..

[Bristawl Si]

16 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Not like me to moan gang, but my god if the weather online seasonal is on the money!!! 

Drier than average February..... Temps around average... And drier and sunnier March with temps perhaps above average!! If this comes off, I really want my money back. Has it stands I have yet to see a falling snow flake since late Feb 2018! The last significant frost was early December! A complete pigs dinner of a winter, maybe next year I won't even bother hunting for it... 

 

 

 

Sounds a decent forecast to me. Mild Winter will herald an early warm Spring.. nice!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

The reality since 1987 is snow is becoming rarer and rarer.

I'm sick of reading about SA/solar minimum/MJO/Mountain torgues TBH..

Something somewhere is over riding other signals.

My money is on the warmer oceans being the culprit ..

It’s all gone kaput sadly. Meanwhile Calgary and Vancouver in Canada are sub-zero!

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

The reality since 1987 is snow is becoming rarer and rarer.

I'm sick of reading about SA/solar minimum/MJO/Mountain torgues TBH..

Something somewhere is over riding other signals.

My money is on the warmer oceans being the culprit ..

I think  thats a fair assumption    Even with low sea ice   we still struggle to see any form of blocking   and if we finally do  the uppers tend to be that touch warmer   

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

The reality since 1987 is snow is becoming rarer and rarer.

I'm sick of reading about SA/solar minimum/MJO/Mountain torgues TBH..

Something somewhere is over riding other signals.

My money is on the warmer oceans being the culprit ..

It would make sense - warmer temps/oceans at the mid latitudes just strengthens the thermal boundary to the colder air to our north & enhances the westerlies during winter. Probably not the only reason, but a good one.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

It’s all gone kaput sadly. Meanwhile Calgary and Vancouver in Canada are sub-zero!

 

Just now, mb018538 said:

It would make sense - warmer temps/oceans at the mid latitudes just strengthens the thermal boundary to the colder air to our north & enhances the westerlies during winter. Probably not the only reason, but a good one.

Another  unwelcome trend is the Greenland blocking becoming more common in Summer.

It is destroying my interest in the weather now, as someone who enjoys seasonal weather its utterly depressing.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its just so utterly depressing matt

We have to keep hope of a change but as the clock ticks away another horrendous attempt at a winter passes by.

 

I've been watching ice road truckers recently, which has not helped! I mean I can remember the days when average to poor winters still brought decent cold outbreaks, and lying snow! This pattern is beyond a joke now mate. Even the Scottish mountains are getting nothing compared to the good old days. Heaven forbid come october, and the LRF are going for a mild one again! The spirits will be dead instantly, and tbh I can understand it.... My first moans of the winter after spending right through till late march last year searching for it! Not this year, my gears are to crunched now mate. Like you said the other day, perhaps a trip to Canada next year wouldn't be such a bad idea.... Let's see if cheeky monkey will put us up free of charge....

Ps.. And you know what's funny.... At - 25 the locals in yellow knife say its a bit of a heatwave today! We wouldnt get - 25 here if the ruddy arctic collapsed on us...

Edited January 14, 2020 by Mattwolves

[joggs]

I'm already for writing this winter off tbh. One of the worst winters ever fir me imo so far.

Northern blocking will become abundant in early spring no doubt grrrrrr.

Bring on next winter

[mb018538]

40 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Seriously I'm not going to get in an argument of what is 'bad' for a summer month (in the middle of winter) and notice you come from Cambridge so not up north, yes we have had some mixed summer months of recent years but a large percentage of them have been warmer than normal and the only 'bad' summer month I can recollect of the last 6/7 years is June last year but we do all have our own opinions of what 'bad' is and depending of what age you are...personally feel we have been spoilt since 2012 for summer months if warmth and sun is your thing (and other late spring and early autumn months) but then again I live in the far south east, the driest portion of the UK and not far from the continent.

To me a summer month that is say 0.5-1c above normal but wet or cyclonic isn't really a good month. It just doesn't really feel above average if it's constantly raining on and off.

June last year was certainly a shocker! The latter part of the 2010s were much better than the early part and late 00s though, I remember those being dreadful. Age wise - will be 35 in July, so I don't have memories of the 70s and 80s...I guess the summers of 95 and 97 stick out as my first really noteworthy heatwaves I could remember!

I feel grateful to live in the driest and warmest part of the country, dunno how i'd cope being up north and missing out on heat all the time during the summer while the SE warms up!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

I'm already for writing this winter off tbh. One of the worst winters ever fir me imo so far.

Northern blocking will become abundant in early spring no doubt grrrrrr.

Bring on next winter

Yep, you watch the oranges and reds take residence to our NW come April...

Its happening regularly now.

[MP-R]

Just to highlight that in winter 15/16 we were about to enter the first cold spell. Looks like this winter is about to fall behind even that one!

[Froze were the Days]

Interestingly I'm yet to record an air frost this winter (which includes November)...since keeping winter weather records from 1983/84 that has never occurred not even in those horrible winters and late autumns of 1989/90, 1997/98, 2006/07, 2013/14 and 2015/16 - sad stuff!

Edited January 14, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[Sceptical]

1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Not like me to moan gang, but my god if the weather online seasonal is on the money!!! 

Drier than average February..... Temps around average... And drier and sunnier March with temps perhaps above average!! If this comes off, I really want my money back. Has it stands I have yet to see a falling snow flake since late Feb 2018! The last significant frost was early December! A complete pigs dinner of a winter, maybe next year I won't even bother hunting for it... 

 

 

 

The majority of the seasonal LRFs have been in favour of a mild winter since October.

Nobody should be surprised.

Anyway, here's current conditions in parts of Scotland.

 

Edited January 14, 2020 by Sceptical

[joggs]

I suppose it's easier for the models to call a milder/wetter than average winter out for our little island.

Let's see how they get on when we have a cold one(if lol).

But they have been pretty much spot on.

[Sceptical]

12 minutes ago, joggs said:

I suppose it's easier for the models to call a milder/wetter than average winter out for our little island.

Let's see how they get on when we have a cold one(if lol).

But they have been pretty much spot on.

Back in the 19th century, the UK might expect a severe winter once in every five years. Nowadays the likelihood of a severe winter in the UK has risen to once every twenty years. 

Spring snow depths have been reducing for the last 50 years.

The bulk of the recent warming has occurred within the last 35 years.

The warmest 20 years on record have all occurred within the last 22 years.

Winters for the UK are heading only in one direction.

Realistic expectations.

Edited January 14, 2020 by Sceptical

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

Back in the 19th century, the UK might expect a severe winter once in every five years. Nowadays the likelihood of a severe winter in the UK has risen to once every twenty years. 

Spring snow depths have been reducing for the last 50 years.

The bulk of the recent warming has occurred within the last 35 years.

The warmest 20 years on record have all occurred within the last 22 years.

Winters for the UK are heading only in one direction.

Realistic expectations.

Hard to argue with any of that.

IS it a cycle or is it directly related to GW, that is the question.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hard to argue with any of that.

IS it a cycle or is it directly related to GW, that is the question.

Has to be GW as the warming ties in with the increased CO2 emissions.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, prolongedSnowLover said:

Has to be GW as the warming ties in with the increased CO2 emissions.

I agree , i think the warming oceans is playing a big part although one could argue this is linked to GW.

Whichever way you dice it - we are well and truly stuck in a rut of mild winters - 

 

[Azazel]

What a thoroughly pathetic and miserable winter this has been.

Anecdotal of course but I can only recall scraping my windscreen once. 

I work in an office with no heating or air-con, so in the summer it's unbearably stuffy at times and in the winter it's usually freezing (sitting at a desk all day) - this winter really hasn't felt that bad at all in that respect.

Finally, I'm STILL walking around my house in flip flops which is basically unheard of at this time of year - normally I would've upgraded to slippers long before now.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

What a thoroughly pathetic and miserable winter this has been.

Anecdotal of course but I can only recall scraping my windscreen once. 

I work in an office with no heating or air-con, so in the summer it's unbearably stuffy at times and in the winter it's usually freezing (sitting at a desk all day) - this winter really hasn't felt that bad at all in that respect.

Finally, I'm STILL walking around my house in flip flops which is basically unheard of at this time of year - normally I would've upgraded to slippers long before now.

I hear you, spare a thought for people like me who have to cope with this kind of miserable crap virtually all year round, literally,

At least you get a decent summer to compensate - 

[Lampostwatcher]

I don't hang my boots up till end of first week of March 

9 years ago we had 18 cm s snow depth which lasted 48 hours before melting in march

[Azazel]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I hear you, spare a thought for people like me who have to cope with this kind of miserable crap virtually all year round, literally,

At least you get a decent summer to compensate - 

I cannot imagine living in the North West in England (weatherwise) so you have my sympathies:(

[Mr Frost]

Bring back January 2019 - January 2020 is just not cutting it for me! 

January 2019 days of air frost, mean temperature, sunshine duration and rainfall amount against the 1981-2010 anomaly.

 

UK as a whole was 0.0 against the 1981-2010 anomaly. (England had a below average month) 

 

I had two sea level dustings here:

18th January 

 

22nd January 

 

Snow covered hills/mountains from mid January until the first week of February.

 

I thought that was a rubbish month (cold/snow) at the time! Oh how wrong I was! 

Starting to forget what lowland snow looks like! 400 meters and above is the place to be around these parts.

It is only mid January though...holding onto my towel until mid March. 

Edited January 14, 2020 by Mr Frost