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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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I'm looking forward to a bit of stormy action - down to Kimmeridge to watch the wind surfers!

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I've been staying out of this thread, as I suspect it would be full of doomy gloomy posts - as expected given the lack of cold and snow so far.. 

From a personal perspective, this winter so far is not quite on a par with the snowless mild gunk that 13/14 delivered. We didn't receive one morning with any snow cover the whole of that winter!. At least we have had one so far. We have also so far been spared any significant flooding events, or storm events unlike 13/14 and 15/16. So yes whilst it has been relatively poor so far for cold and snow, there have been worse winters up to this point. 

I'd just like to have at least one decent snowfall, say 3-4 inches that sticks on the ground for 2-3 days preferably a weekend. Not much to ask for.. no doubt the snow and cold will come in Spring when we don't want it.. cold snowy spells have a habit of rearing there head in spring after mild snowless winters, 2007/2008 a good example, April 89 also, Spring 16 also. I'm staying positive in that we will see some snow and cold weather before the winter is out.

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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I'd just like to have at least one decent snowfall, say 3-4 inches that sticks on the ground for 2-3 days preferably a weekend.

Like end of January/beginning of February last year for some southern/south western areas.  That couldn’t have been better timed!

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13 hours ago, markyo said:

Very well put...it seems on here one rule for one,another for the others. Heaven forbid any of us posting how uncomfortable and hot it is in the summer! 

You personally spend every single day above 20 degrees from May-September moaning about how hot it is and then revel and rub "heat lovers" noses in it whenever it's cool and rainy and you're moaning about others doing the same in Winter. Remarkable.

Edited by Azazel

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3 minutes ago, Azazel said:

You personally spend every single day above 20 degrees from May-September moaning about how hot it is in summer and then revel and rub "heat lovers" noses in it whenever it's cool and rainy and you're moaning about others doing the same in Winter. Remarkable.

agree Azazel, cool thing when you think, summer getting closer as every day goes on, right side of new year now

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Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree Azazel, cool thing when you think, summer getting closer as every day goes on, right side of new year now

The next month or so is the most painful part! Seems to go sooooo slow and then once we hit March, even if it's an extension of Winter, I start getting really excited about spring and summer:D

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1 minute ago, Azazel said:

The next month or so is the most painful part! Seems to go sooooo slow and then once we hit March, even if it's an extension of Winter, I start getting really excited about spring and summer:D

So long as we don't get the seasons trying to drag their heels and end up with days/weeks of temperatures of 8-14c through April and May then i don't mind! Those sunny late spring days of mid/high teens and low 20s are probably my favourite part of the year. I like the summer heat as much as the next guy, but there's just something nice about everything looking fresh and growing through spring.

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Well, we are now approaching mid-January and for most parts of the UK there has not really been a winter to speak of yet.  I thought I would look back on the charts so far and see what potential looked like and what could have gone wrong  in order to deliver next to nothing for most parts of the country so far:

Here we are on the first day of winter, December 1st:  

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

We start  off with HP close to the west of the UK giving night frosts though not especially cold by day.

By the 3rd HP topples over the UK and the pattern looks far from HLB and a cold spell looks miles away for the UK:

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

By the 6th, HP has sunk south leaving the UK in a mild SW flow:

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

This continued until the 11th.  By the 12th, the zonal flow was re-orientating into more of a NW'ly polar maritime origin (cooler zonality):

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

This allowed some higher ground in the north of the UK to receive a little snowfall but temperatures became close to average for most of England and the majority of the country had rain at times.

I think that about the 17th, the pattern had the best chance of setting up into a colder pattern, with HP building over Greenland:

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

But it did not materialize:

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

as low pressure moved too far NW:   There the UK has its first fail at a cold shot when the building blocks got half way there.

We were then left with this over Christmas:

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

HP too far north and too weak to influence the UK with a cold flow.

Signs of the persistent mild dross pattern that has dominated the first half of January were showing around December 30th:

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

with pressure falling over Greenland and to the north of the UK and the PV setting up shop over Greenland, and HP moving south of the UK.

leaving us in this:

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

this pattern has continued throughout until now:

WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.
WWW.WETTERZENTRALE.DE

Reanalysis archives of the past decades covering Europe.

I think the first sign that things were going wrong for the UK for cold in this winter so far, were seen around December 17th to 19th, when a colder pattern began to set up but then collapsed into nothing, and it was in the last three days of December the very mild pattern for the first half of January was setting up.

In actual fact the CET from the start of Dec 2019 to mid Jan 2020 will very likely be almost identical to the same period in 2018-19.  (Dec 2018 6.9; first half of Jan 2019 5.2 (15.5 days) compared to Dec 2019 5.8, first half of Jan 2020 likely to be something close to 7.3).

Certainly now as we are able to say that the first half of winter 2019-20 has been much milder than average and brought next to nothing in terms of cold for most of the country, does anyone have an idea of what could have gone wrong to limit cold potential for the UK in this winter so far?  I would at least have thought that low solar activity would have been more favourable for cold than it has been since 2012-13, and I would have thought that a near neutral ENSO would not have had a big impact on reducing the chances of cold weather for the UK?  Also a close to neutral QBO so far this winter (less westerly than winter 2018-19) I thought would have been more helpful than last winter.  The only negative thought I have on the  background signals is that through the latter part of December and the first half of January the MJO has not been in favourable phases for cold in the UK (it has been mostly in phases 0 then 4-5 through this last month up to including this coming week), which may have reduced the UK's cold chances.

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A much more lively spell of weather coming up, with severe gales and heavy rain likely. Hopefully, not a total washout and some squally and thundery showers will occur. Not much sign of anything cold, though. 

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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree Azazel, cool thing when you think, summer getting closer as every day goes on, right side of new year now

Spring follows winter, then summer.

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2 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Certainly now as we are able to say that the first half of winter 2019-20 has been much milder than average and brought next to nothing in terms of cold for most of the country, does anyone have an idea of what could have gone wrong to limit cold potential for the UK in this winter so far?  I would at least have thought that low solar activity would have been more favourable for cold than it has been since 2012-13, and I would have thought that a near neutral ENSO would not have had a big impact on reducing the chances of cold weather for the UK?  Also a close to neutral QBO so far this winter (less westerly than winter 2018-19) I thought would have been more helpful than last winter.  The only negative thought I have on the  background signals is that through the latter part of December and the first half of January the MJO has not been in favourable phases for cold in the UK (it has been mostly in phases 0 then 4-5 through this last month up to including this coming week), which may have reduced the UK's cold chances.

Unless it turns out that the +IOD has been overly dominant (we are extremely hampered by low sample size in determining this - and possibly a hint that low solar has been over-cooked as driver), it's been more a case of nothing overly supportive of cold pattern. The best indicator out there has been the MEI. That's been bumping around borderline El Nino for the last few months: 

WWW.ESRL.NOAA.GOV

US Department of Commerce, NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Departmant

 

Weak El Nino / warm ENSO neutral climatology is against cold patterns for Northern Europe during the early part of the winter, more conducive later on depending on other factors.

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@Jules216 2006/07 cited as being a carbon copy of this winter.

Yes, in lots of respects. Similar MEI / ENSO structure. Similar QBO evolution. Similar warm phase early / mid winter characterised by monster +AO during December / January with coupling between trop and strat PV. And now, similar MJO evolution.

Fair to say 2006/07 has been on the radar for some considerable time. Hopefully we'll see a 2007 style reversal in the AO for February. Be interesting to see if the lower solar conditions this time round deliver anything more tangible for colder outbreaks further west than in 2007.

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55 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

@Jules216 2006/07 cited as being a carbon copy of this winter.

Yes, in lots of respects. Similar MEI / ENSO structure. Similar QBO evolution. Similar warm phase early / mid winter characterised by monster +AO during December / January with coupling between trop and strat PV. And now, similar MJO evolution.

Fair to say 2006/07 has been on the radar for some considerable time. Hopefully we'll see a 2007 style reversal in the AO for February. Be interesting to see if the lower solar conditions this time round deliver anything more tangible for colder outbreaks further west than in 2007.

Just hope a 2007 summer doesn't follow. I think I'd actually start looking for residence abroad if that happened...

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46 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

@Jules216 2006/07 cited as being a carbon copy of this winter.

Yes, in lots of respects. Similar MEI / ENSO structure. Similar QBO evolution. Similar warm phase early / mid winter characterised by monster +AO during December / January with coupling between trop and strat PV. And now, similar MJO evolution.

Fair to say 2006/07 has been on the radar for some considerable time. Hopefully we'll see a 2007 style reversal in the AO for February. Be interesting to see if the lower solar conditions this time round deliver anything more tangible for colder outbreaks further west than in 2007.

Stewart

re low solar activity, possibly a lag response too?, 09/10 then Dec 10 a year and 2 year delay from the 2008 must minima.  Also synoptically in NW Europe it’s very similar to 1916 ....very mild Jan, mild Feb, bitter cold March.  Any analogues and composites from that year ? 

BFTP

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2 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

@Jules216 2006/07 cited as being a carbon copy of this winter.

Yes, in lots of respects. Similar MEI / ENSO structure. Similar QBO evolution. Similar warm phase early / mid winter characterised by monster +AO during December / January with coupling between trop and strat PV. And now, similar MJO evolution.

Fair to say 2006/07 has been on the radar for some considerable time. Hopefully we'll see a 2007 style reversal in the AO for February. Be interesting to see if the lower solar conditions this time round deliver anything more tangible for colder outbreaks further west than in 2007.

@Glacier Point just remarkable similarities between 2007 and now. Comparison between 01.12 and 10.01

compday.2FYTE8U_W8.gif

compday.CoIY2sieW_.gif

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7 hours ago, Weather-history said:

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption?

You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe thunderstorm causing potential flooding, loss of life and disruption?

You could apply that to heatwave lovers, why would you want intense heat causing a spike increase in deaths, uncomfortable nights etc?

Where do you end? You can not expect everyone taking a scientifically sterile view of meteorology on this site. They post because they love specific types of weather. That's the way it goes. 

 

Interesting that your not the frost to***r in here to infer that i have no interest in weather...of all types or that having an interest in synoptic meteorology is both boring and sterile and has no place here.

Edited by knocker

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Dear oh dear if the weatheronline outlook for the rest of January and February is correct I very much hope it's not then we can kiss winter goodbye. 

High pressure to dominate cool days and frosty nights no snow in the extended outlook.

😪 there's a High Jim but not where we want it to be.

hopefully things won't go that way

 

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9 hours ago, Azazel said:

You personally spend every single day above 20 degrees from May-September moaning about how hot it is and then revel and rub "heat lovers" noses in it whenever it's cool and rainy and you're moaning about others doing the same in Winter. Remarkable.

I rest my case,you've just proved my point exactly. Thank you. Not one single thing in that post makes sense,sorry.

Edited by markyo

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High pressure can never seem to build north of the UK in winter, it either becomes a euro trash high, hence the very mild start to January, or  it only can move North enough  so it sits over the UK like is being shown soon, but rarely gets any further North. 

I know we have the Greenland high but that might as well not exist in the winter as it very rarely brings us any cold weather.

This winter is looking like another dud, but I am still expecting snow and very much colder weather to arrive in March, which it usually does now. 

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2 hours ago, E17boy said:

Dear oh dear if the weatheronline outlook for the rest of January and February is correct I very much hope it's not then we can kiss winter goodbye. 

High pressure to dominate cool days and frosty nights no snow in the extended outlook.

😪 there's a High Jim but not where we want it to be.

hopefully things won't go that way

 

And followed by a warm sunny spring, which leads to a poor coolish summer.

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17 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

High pressure can never seem to build north of the UK in winter, it either becomes a euro trash high, hence the very mild start to January, or  it only can move North enough  so it sits over the UK like is being shown soon, but rarely gets any further North. 

I know we have the Greenland high but that might as well not exist in the winter as it very rarely brings us any cold weather.

This winter is looking like another dud, but I am still expecting snow and very much colder weather to arrive in March, which it usually does now. 

same with low pressure in winter,almost non existent around Batlic countries or even gulf of Genoa low,even more utopistic is Black See low, all of these were highly frequest in winters before 2014 now if any low pressure arrives to Europe it is originated of somewhere near Iceland under temporarily amplified Azores high. If you do a NCEP NCAR 500mb analysis of winters 2013-2020 you will get a huge fat Euro high anomaly with throughing west of Ireland

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