Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[daz_4]

Only 2 of the last 20 winter months (including Jan 20) were cold here in Central Europe - Jan 17 and Feb 18. And even then they were severely lacking in snowfall. Not to mention Jan 17 was mostly inversion because HP quickly collapsed.

[damianslaw]

Back to the mild Dec, Jan and Feb likely combo, yes we have had many winters when all three months have been mild. February on just two occasions has bucked the trend somewhat, but the cold never managed to cover the whole month, 2005 a cold second half, mild first half, 2012 cold first half mild second half.

Feb 1991 brought a severe cold first half, but the cold relented markedly from mid month onwards. Feb 96 brought cold of varying depths but nothing severe. Feb 10 and 13 also similiar. Feb 09 was a milder version of 1991, a cold first half, very mild second half.

The last truly very cold February 1986, that came on the back of a very mild Dec, though it trended cold after christmas,and a fairly average Jan. Quite an oddity winter 85/86 against a preety cold background, Nov 85 very cold, very cold spring and late summer/early autumn.

[Lampostwatcher]

Lbh if by the end of Feb we get one day of 5 inches of snow I'd take that

[Mapantz]

4 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

A little excessive these MetO anomaly charts I feel though obviously variations and I'm near the coast...we didn't really get any cold conditions until 25th and then very cold 27th onwards in 2018 and this is showing between -1.5-2.5c

I had 17 sub-zero minimum days in Feb 2018. My average finished at 4°C. The Met Office derived average for this area is 5.4°C so that map has it bang on for this location.

Edited January 7, 2020 by Mapantz

[Jason M]

24 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

Lbh if by the end of Feb we get one day of 5 inches of snow I'd take that

I'd agree with that. In fact I would be tempted to bank a day with just a light covering. I'm expecting to see zero snow here this year. It would only be the 2nd snowless winter in my lifetime albeit both will have occurred within a few short years if it comes to pass as I expect.

I thought this winter would be awful from as far back as early December. I'm not claiming any superior knowledge here but simply just a gut feel based on many years experience (and pretty much all LRFs are saying the same thing). Any tiny bit of lingering doubt over global warming (and there wasn't much doubt!!) was dispelled by the ridiculous warm spell of last Feb. I fear this winter is a sign of things to come. Whilst it would be ludicrous to say no more cold snowy weather its getting harder to achieve and the changes seem to be happening really quickly now!

Anyway, hopefully the weather will prove me wrong. Given Jan is pretty much a write off though, I wont be holding my breath for this winter. Just a case of seeing if we can squeeze one short sharp cold snap from somewhere.

 

[NeilN]

57 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Back to the mild Dec, Jan and Feb likely combo, yes we have had many winters when all three months have been mild. February on just two occasions has bucked the trend somewhat, but the cold never managed to cover the whole month, 2005 a cold second half, mild first half, 2012 cold first half mild second half.

Feb 1991 brought a severe cold first half, but the cold relented markedly from mid month onwards. Feb 96 brought cold of varying depths but nothing severe. Feb 10 and 13 also similiar. Feb 09 was a milder version of 1991, a cold first half, very mild second half.

The last truly very cold February 1986, that came on the back of a very mild Dec, though it trended cold after christmas,and a fairly average Jan. Quite an oddity winter 85/86 against a preety cold background, Nov 85 very cold, very cold spring and late summer/early autumn.

Reading about the winter, and my Mum's memories of the viciously cold February it was indeed a strange one.

We're probably in the realms of fantasy here, but what is the chance of a February 1986 happening again? Surely unlikely due to how the planet is? I want to experience this.

Failing that you have 1982/3 - Mild Dec, very Mild Jan (in the top 5 warmest I believe) and a very cold Feb and March. 

[SLEETY]

We do great sypnotic charts for cold but rarely in the 3 winter months, look at March 2013 for example, the northern  blocking was very extreme, but we can't seem to get these sypnotics during the winter months, especially January, a complete joke of a winter month now. 

[Stabilo19]

Does anywhere else at the same latitude as the UK experience endless mild winter weather? I was going to suggest Vancouver but even they are getting cold later this week. 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2020 by Stabilo19

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Does anywhere else at the same latitude as the UK experience endless mild winter weather? I was going to suggest Vancouver but even they are getting cold later this week. 

 

 

Yes Ireland! Vancouver island as well. West coast Canada can see very cold arctic outbreaks when high pressure sets up over aluetuian area as now. Indeed it's been a strong feature of recent winters and if anyone has stat  for mean values in Vancouver over recent years will be interesting to note how many gave been below normal. Conversely just like UK south west airstream off the Pacific give wet dank mild weather to Vancouver.

[Mr Frost]

The best Winter as a whole that I have lived through/remember (snow/cold lover point of view) was 2009/10 - mean temperature compared to the 1971-2000 Anomaly.

December 2009:

 

January 2010:

 

February 2010:

 

Best Winter month that I have lived through/remember was December 2010. 

 

2010 was an incredible year for below average months for the UK as a whole. (Seven out of twelve)

Matched three years later in 2013. 

I would take another February 2010 this year and throw in another March 2013/2018 for a extended Winter. 

[damianslaw]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

We do great sypnotic charts for cold but rarely in the 3 winter months, look at March 2013 for example, the northern  blocking was very extreme, but we can't seem to get these sypnotics during the winter months, especially January, a complete joke of a winter month now. 

December 2010.. this gives us hope still..

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

The best Winter as a whole that I have lived through/remember (snow/cold lover point of view) was 2009/10 - mean temperature compared to the 1971-2000 Anomaly.

December 2009:

 

January 2010:

 

February 2010:

 

Best Winter month that I have lived through/remember was December 2010. 

 

2010 was an incredible year for below average months for the UK as a whole. (Seven out of twelve)

Matched three years later in 2013. 

I would take another February 2010 this year and throw in another March 2013/2018 for a extended Winter. 

Another year for a notable number of below average months was 1996 managed at least 6 may be 7 possibly 8.. 1986 also. 

[Don]

6 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Best Winter month that I have lived through/remember was December 2010. 

 

Wow, that chart shows just how phenomenal December 2010 truly was!  I think the chart for January 2020 will look similar, except for the colour! 

[lassie23]

Lots of people throwing in the towel and rightly so, the models are stuck in dross mode, nothing to see here move along. I think we will have to wait until December 2020 for a decent cold spell. Merry Christmas everyone in advance

[Mr Frost]

20 minutes ago, Don said:

Wow, that chart shows just how phenomenal December 2010 truly was!  I think the chart for January 2020 will look similar, except for the colour! 

Indeed - just as impressive was the days of lying snow it had! 

December 2010 days of lying snow compared to the 1961-1990 Anomaly:

 

December 2010 days of lying snow compared to the 1971-2000 Anomaly:

 

December 2010 really was the glory days for a cold/snow lover!

Edited January 7, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Penrith Snow]

The models are so appalling it's almost biblical, My God, my God why have thou forsaken me........

[Azazel]

Struggling with the complete lack of sunlight here now.

[Carl46Wrexham]

Is it too early to chuck January in the bin and pin our slowly fading hopes on February yet?

[mountain shadow]

20 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Is it too early to chuck January in the bin and pin our slowly fading hopes on February yet?

No, January is in the bin, still faint hopes for February as the PV hopefully declines and more favorable tropical influences.  

[Froze were the Days]

13 hours ago, Mapantz said:

I had 17 sub-zero minimum days in Feb 2018. My average finished at 4°C. The Met Office derived average for this area is 5.4°C so that map has it bang on for this location.

Your location must be more prone to frost than mine as I live near the coast. I only experienced 7 air frosts (maybe a case that map should show some easterly coastal areas somewhat milder with the last few days being the exception).

[Froze were the Days]

3 hours ago, Azazel said:

Struggling with the complete lack of sunlight here now.

Agree...counted 15 days already so far this winter with nondescript cloudy/dull calmish days, thank god for the Vitamin D supply. 

I'm trying to get my head around just how boring this winter is...that tornado going over the M25 is the highlight.

[Number 23]

12 hours ago, NeilN said:

Reading about the winter, and my Mum's memories of the viciously cold February it was indeed a strange one.

We're probably in the realms of fantasy here, but what is the chance of a February 1986 happening again? Surely unlikely due to how the planet is? I want to experience this. 

One of my earlier memories of the weather is walking to school with my mum that month, and the cold literally took my breath away. Cried my eyes out. I can still feel it now!

Even as a fan of weather extremes, I'd not be in a hurry to experience that again. Feb 91 remains my personal favourite, as it was the perfect cold spell which didn't outstay its welcome. 

Who knows whether we'll see the likes of either again, 09/10 was incredible in its own way and reminded us that extremes can still occur, but any cold weather certainly feels like a relic of history in the context of this winter! 

[MP-R]

10 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Agree...counted 15 days already so far this winter with nondescript cloudy/dull calmish days, thank god for the Vitamin D supply. 

I'm trying to get my head around just how boring this winter is...that tornado going over the M25 is the highlight.

Indeed. The most interesting weathe came in the first week of December. Some lovely frosty sunny days then strong winds and a thunderstorm on the 8th. Since mid December though it’s really been a yawn fest!

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Looking more promising on the GFS 0z and 6z runs. Could be a winter of two halves...

[Froze were the Days]

10 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looking more promising on the GFS 0z and 6z runs. Could be a winter of two halves...

What at 300z + hours?...I don't even bother looking at the GFS anymore.