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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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35 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I just can't believe the ones who are praising themselves for predicting this mild winter!! You must have one fantastic tardis or crystal ball.... Or perhaps I partyed to hard on New Year and have slept through the final 2 months of winter! It's not exactly rocket Science to predict a default weather pattern. For those of you coldies still interested... Keep the faith... Plenty of time for a backloaded cold spell just yet, or even a very cold early spring! 

Default weather pattern for UK weather? Yep, sure is. As a betting man it IS the safest bet, esp for down here. Reality is that 'we' are a maritime climate with generally mild, wettish Winters. The internet has spawned 'experts' in lots of fields, and thrown up numerous 'twits' who like to publicise their thoughts.

UK, esp the South, has infrequent cold, snowy Winters...fact. A lot on here need a reality check, and some need help when they '"worry" about computer generated charts. Winter will be virtually snowless, and probably next few years as we enter a new phase.

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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Okay that's fine. I'll give it a rest then

Do as you like knocker. I'm knocking the weather, not you.

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Welll if winter does decide to finally arrive,it’s going to be shock to most people.It felt more like spring the last week.

No need for the heating on,or even putting on the Winter  COAT and GLOVES sorry if those words affect the sensitive amongst us ??

Ridiculously mild,the   highest CET   for January might go at this rate.

Nailed on spring will be very cold with snow for lots of us,pattern will eventually break..

The warmest January on record was 1916 (7.5 CET), although we had two notably mild Januarys in 2007 and 2008 that we not that far off it.  The point was about 1916 was that after that record mild January the weather pattern changed in the February that followed to a more favourable pattern for cold, and the late part of Feb 1916 and much of Mar 1916 had a fair amount of northern blocking that brought a good deal of cold weather for the UK.  Statistically although Jan 1916 holds the record for the warmest ever, it still statistically proves that it was possible back then to still get a pattern change to something much better for cold in the late winter.  Jan 1983 also saw a notably mild month that again changed to a much colder pattern for the February, which statistically proves a pattern change was possible then.  More recently although it has fared much worse; there was just a little cold snap in the first part of Feb 2007 and a colder frostier MLB in mid Feb 2008.  The only more recent good pattern change that I can think of was, in mid Feb 2005, where the pattern changed to a more favourable setup for cold after not much in the way of cold up to that point of the winter.

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I hope we get the warmest January on record. Go big or go home I say. Must be possible this year. Mid teens forecast here on Tuesday.

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5 minutes ago, cheese said:

I hope we get the warmest January on record. Go big or go home I say. Must be possible this year. Mid teens forecast here on Tuesday.

I think I will go home.....

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A sense of frustration seems to always creep in during early January from cold and snow lovers, if the charts are churning out mild westerly dominated pattern and there has been limited cold snowy weather in December. We've been here many a time recent years, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019. Only in 2011 did we see a pattern change of any note to give something colder and snowier very end Jan and first part of Feb. However, in each years, a trend to something colder relative to first half of winter has occurred second half of winter.

The saying as the days lengthen the cold strengthens spring to mind.

I can understand the frustrations from cold and snow lovers, especially given early-mid Jan is probably the best time for snow and cold, and it can be at its most potent, less heating due to the sun, long nights still etc.. by mid Feb onwards there isn't the same mid-winter bleak feeling. 

The time of year which is most likely to deliver more abnormal synoptics relative to the westerly them is mid Feb - early June, frustrating again for anyone wanting something especially warm or cold, cold weather often occurs but can't pack the punch of core winter, warm weather from late April onwards also can deliver a punch, but again not the same as one in peak summer. Blame the position the UK is situated next to a mass of water that maintains a similar temp all year round, nowhere has the same situation, New Zealand less of a mass of water, West coast America has a major continental landmass on its doorstep. 

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2 hours ago, syed2878 said:

most long-range models from late autumn early winter predicted this outcome for winter 1920 

I didn't know there were long range models 100 years ago?! ?

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2017 and 2019 brought dry cold though so weren’t too bad from a model viewing point of view. It wasn’t long into 2016 that the midmonth cold spell came into view either. Other winters had also already bagged at least one or two cold or even seasonal spells so the level of desperation wasn’t there.

Only 2013/14 comes close to the outlook devoid of anything januaryesque at this point.

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1 minute ago, MP-R said:

2017 and 2019 brought dry cold though so weren’t too bad from a model viewing point of view. It wasn’t long into 2016 that the midmonth cold spell came into view either. Other winters had also already bagged at least one or two cold or even seasonal spells so the level of desperation wasn’t there.

Only 2013/14 comes close to the outlook devoid of anything januaryesque at this point.

Can't recall much dry cold in 2017, yes last year delivered colder and drier second half but little in the way of snow.

January 2016 mid month brought a very shortlived welcome snowy spell, it was just a 2 day wonder but welcomed all the same. 

At least we are being spared the flooding and stormy misery of winter 13/14 and Dec 15 - one plus I guess.

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27 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

A sense of frustration seems to always creep in during early January from cold and snow lovers, if the charts are churning out mild westerly dominated pattern and there has been limited cold snowy weather in December. We've been here many a time recent years, 2011, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2019. Only in 2011 did we see a pattern change of any note to give something colder and snowier very end Jan and first part of Feb. However, in each years, a trend to something colder relative to first half of winter has occurred second half of winter.

The saying as the days lengthen the cold strengthens spring to mind.

I can understand the frustrations from cold and snow lovers, especially given early-mid Jan is probably the best time for snow and cold, and it can be at its most potent, less heating due to the sun, long nights still etc.. by mid Feb onwards there isn't the same mid-winter bleak feeling. 

The time of year which is most likely to deliver more abnormal synoptics relative to the westerly them is mid Feb - early June, frustrating again for anyone wanting something especially warm or cold, cold weather often occurs but can't pack the punch of core winter, warm weather from late April onwards also can deliver a punch, but again not the same as one in peak summer. Blame the position the UK is situated next to a mass of water that maintains a similar temp all year round, nowhere has the same situation, New Zealand less of a mass of water, West coast America has a major continental landmass on its doorstep. 

I thought that Feb 2011 was well above average temperature-wise with very limited cold weather.  The start of Jan 2012 was mild I believe and that lasted for much of the month, although a cold spell of weather developed end of January through the early part of February, so I think you may be confusing 2011 with 2012.  Jan 2015 also started off mostly mild although there was a decent polar NW'ly spell later in that month that brought some snow for favoured parts of N England.  In terms of the list of years that you mention above, only in 2015 and 2016 did the second half of winter change to something colder relative to the first half, and so did 2012, and most recently 2018 did.  2014 and 2017 didn't; also 2019 didn't, look at how ridiculously mild February was.

I think that early January can be a frustrating time for the UK winter for the reason that, especially if there has been little in the way of cold weather in December, and the models are showing mild dross and little chance of anything cold, time is then closing in for things to change for the UK to get something cold out of the winter and prevent it from turning into a disaster, like a number of them in the last 30 odd years have.

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9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Can't recall much dry cold in 2017, yes last year delivered colder and drier second half but little in the way of snow.

January 2016 mid month brought a very shortlived welcome snowy spell, it was just a 2 day wonder but welcomed all the same. 

At least we are being spared the flooding and stormy misery of winter 13/14 and Dec 15 - one plus I guess.

Actually, to be fair, looking back it seemed to be a southern UK thing. Down here the first week was mainly cold and frosty, a warm up from the 07th, then a northwesterly that brought some light snow on the 13th, another brief warm up, then cold and frosty from the 16th until the 27th when the Atlantic broke through. The month actually came in below average here, sandwiched between a mild December and February.

I think the difference with January 2016 was that the temperatures returned to near normal after the horrific November and December. It at least felt like January and indeed between the 13th and 20th was actually cold. Still a poor winter month overall but a welcome change from December.

A few days ago I was saying how at least it's looking dry down here, but I'm wondering if actually it could turn quite wet at times this week with secondary lows diving south in front of the UK.

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I tend to find people hold it together okay in the MD thread during December as they still think fine two months left of winter .

Now it’s into January things might turn ugly if the models continue to dish out horror charts ! 

 

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18 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I thought that Feb 2011 was well above average temperature-wise with very limited cold weather.  The start of Jan 2012 was mild I believe and that lasted for much of the month, although a cold spell of weather developed end of January through the early part of February.  Jan 2015 started off mostly mild although there was a decent polar NW'ly spell later in that month that brought some snow for favoured parts of N England.  

I think that early January can be a frustrating time for the UK winter for the reason that, especially if there has been little in the way of cold weather in December, and the models are showing mild dross and little chance of anything cold, time is then closing in for things to change for the UK to get something cold out of the winter and prevent it from turning into a disaster, like a number of them in the last 30 odd years have.

I think he probably means 2012?

I see your point about December.  2017 featured some cold snaps delivering widespread snow at times (something that was completely devoid in December just gone for many).  January 2018 then went on to be fairly mild, although it was cold at times in northern areas and then of course we had the BFTE towards the end of February, courtesy of the SSW.  My point is that winter 2017/18 felt better at this time in early January because we had already had a nice winter taster, which gave hope for something colder later on occurring.  Plus, background signals were more favourable.

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12 minutes ago, Don said:

I think he probably means 2012?

I see your point about December.  2017 featured some cold snaps delivering widespread snow at times (something that was completely devoid in December just gone for many).  January 2018 then went on to be fairly mild, although it was cold at times in northern areas and then of course we had the BFTE towards the end of February, courtesy of the SSW.  My point is that winter 2017/18 felt better at this time in early January because we had already had a nice winter taster, which gave hope for something colder later on occurring.  Plus, background signals were more favourable.

The only background signal in winter 2017-18 that was more favourable was that the QBO was far more easterly than it now is this winter.  

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19 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Actually, to be fair, looking back it seemed to be a southern UK thing. Down here the first week was mainly cold and frosty, a warm up from the 07th, then a northwesterly that brought some light snow on the 13th, another brief warm up, then cold and frosty from the 16th until the 27th when the Atlantic broke through. The month actually came in below average here, sandwiched between a mild December and February.

I think the difference with January 2016 was that the temperatures returned to near normal after the horrific November and December. It at least felt like January and indeed between the 13th and 20th was actually cold. Still a poor winter month overall but a welcome change from December.

A few days ago I was saying how at least it's looking dry down here, but I'm wondering if actually it could turn quite wet at times this week with secondary lows diving south in front of the UK.

January 2016 was actually a fair bit above average (CET 5.4) although there was a colder spell mid-month.  I think that what you mean is that it felt average or even quite cool in comparison to the record warm December it followed.        

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Just now, North-Easterly Blast said:

The only background signal in winter 2017-18 that was more favourable was that the QBO was far more easterly than it now is this winter.  

The SST's in the NE Pacific were colder than they are now which would have helped, I think the North Atlantic SST's may have been more favourable (although I'm not entirely sure) and I don't think we had the issues that the IDO has seemingly plagued us with this winter?

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6 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

January 2016 was actually a fair bit above average (CET 5.4) although there was a colder spell mid-month.  I think that what you mean is that it felt average or even quite cool in comparison to the record warm December it followed.        

Indeed, essentially as I've said. 'Near' normal, and certainly a welcome change from December. Had a minimum of -5.9C here on the 20th, and maximum of 14.0C only four days later. Monthly average was a still above par 05.3C overall.

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I would not expect that what is happening in areas as far away as those you mention would have as big an impact on the UK's weather as things like solar activity and ENSO state and QBO.  As you say, background signals may have been marginally better for cold in the UK in 2017-18 than this winter but I would not have said significantly so.

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1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I would not expect that what is happening in areas as far away as those you mention would have as big an impact on the UK's weather as things like solar activity and ENSO state and QBO.  As you say, background signals may have been marginally better for cold in the UK in 2017-18 than this winter but I would not have said significantly so.

Nina peaking moderate was bad compared to now but the PDO/Victoria Mode was much less positive which was good. Solar activity was reducing but nothing special while QBO was easterly (though actually our current neutral is not bad).

So mainly I think it probably was the IOD which ruined this winter so far.

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33 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

So mainly I think it probably was the IOD which ruined this winter so far.

Sorry, I said IDO, didn't I!  Meant to say IOD.

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Well, this time 35 years ago a big freeze was underway during the great January 1985.  Mild weather did win out towards the later part of the month, but the cold returned in February.  Oh, what I would give for a repeat of that winter!  That said, cold lovers were hardly having it bad this time 10 years ago either!

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48 minutes ago, Don said:

Sorry, I said IDO, didn't I!  Meant to say IOD.

What is the IOD first winter I've heard it mentioned and why is it affecting us this winter and not before.. it seems to be being blamed for everything but can it be such a dominant player.. 

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9 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

What is the IOD first winter I've heard it mentioned and why is it affecting us this winter and not before.. it seems to be being blamed for everything but can it be such a dominant player.. 

I had not heard of it prior to this winter either, but it is being blamed for our mild winter and also the dreadful heat/fires across Australia.  That's all I can say!

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The snow will come. From around the last week of January and it will last for several weeks in places in the UK. I recieved an email from a reliable source confirming this. Wind and rain and some flooding in places up to Christmas then a quiet spell followed by more rain. So far it's been spot on. In disbelief in the winter prediction myself how accurate it's been . Then was told take precautions act now! 'Nature is never wrong' ❄❄❄??

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