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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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Interesting to also see that the real cold is well & truly bottled up over the North Pole, possibly not a bad thing if your looking at retaining and increasing arctic sea ice. 

8DDF3032-0797-43E0-A8B7-EC95358FF38B.png

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Africa looks to be on the cold side as well. Cam someone tell me when Winter is going to start it seems we've gone from a long Autumn to spring bypassing it altogether.

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47 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Back in Cyprus, a Mediterranean island (i.e. just about the worst place outside the tropics for snow) I would be an hours drive away from more snow I could ever wish for. Here I would have to drive 5 hours to Scotland just to see some small snow patches on the mountain summit. Absolute disgrace.

Plenty of snow around in Turkey too , it's such a shame for the UK how things have changed 

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Posted (edited)
54 minutes ago, shotski said:

Don’t get me wrong I’d love to see anything like those temperatures in our neck of the woods but there still massively above where they should be this time of year. 

60717890-DF53-46A2-B075-7AF60F1BCBF5.png

This is an important point!

 

What looks like perfect winter weather to a brit is actually well above average temps for the locals in Scandinavia and western  Russia! And these anomalies have been present for many weeks now. Crap winter so far.

Edited by Stabilo19

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Dreadful stuff . Would the last cold and snow lover to leave UK please switch off the lights !

 

I think we just have to accept it’s one of those winters.  If one really needs a snow fix soon, their only real option is to book a Canadian holiday.....

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Seems Ike only yesterday that some posters were mocking the long range forecasts that went for a mild winter !

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Posted (edited)

Welll if winter does decide to finally arrive,it’s going to be shock to most people.It felt more like spring the last week.

No need for the heating on,or even putting on the Winter  COAT and GLOVES sorry if those words affect the sensitive amongst us 🤣😆

Ridiculously mild,the   highest CET   for January might go at this rate.

Nailed on spring will be very cold with snow for lots of us,pattern will eventually break..

Edited by SLEETY
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11 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

This is an important point!

 

What looks like perfect winter weather to a brit is actually well above average temps for the locals in Scandinavia and western  Russia! And these anomalies have been present for many weeks now. Crap winter so far.

There hasn't really been a winter as far east as Poland upto now- friday is progged to be 9 degrees , that is well above average for January.

Glosea is clearly a fabulous model when it comes to picking out a +NAO!!

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4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Seems Ike only yesterday that some posters were mocking the long range forecasts that went for a mild winter !

Indeed, AND mocking those who tried to warn of the crap coming that we now see unfolding in front of our eyes. Back in Sep/Oct I said that this winter could challenge warm records...and it just might.

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS/UKMO similar at 144 which means we can probably with some safety write off the next 2 weeks for cold.

BBC monthly now taking us into Feb with zero sign of any high lat blocking.

Perhaps those us who wrote off Jan some days ago were not so foolish afterall, normally i would agree writing off a whole month of winter would be extremely negative/pessimistic  but experienced model watchers will have seen the current entrenched pattern through the years and quickly deduced there was a good chance of a horrendous Jan ..

I'm not giving up on Feb though.

I wrote it off back in October. This is a mid-70s Winter (imby). Early warm Spring hopefully.

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I just can't believe the ones who are praising themselves for predicting this mild winter!! You must have one fantastic tardis or crystal ball.... Or perhaps I partyed to hard on New Year and have slept through the final 2 months of winter! It's not exactly rocket Science to predict a default weather pattern. For those of you coldies still interested... Keep the faith... Plenty of time for a backloaded cold spell just yet, or even a very cold early spring! 

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23 minutes ago, Don said:

I think we just have to accept it’s one of those winters.  If one really needs a snow fix soon, their only real option is to book a Canadian holiday.....

True . It’s just unfortunate that there’s far too many of those winters for UK cold and snow lovers .

Coldies in the UK really deserve a gold medal for both patience and perseverance in having to put up with so much mild dross .

 

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1 minute ago, danthetan said:

Mods can you put some of these posts in the relevant moan/ramp thread please I'm sick of these winters over posts which have no help or relevance in this thread. Moan somewhere else. Thanks 

This is why some people aren't cut out for meteorology or life in general. Fingers in ears, head in sand and going 'la la la' will get you nowhere.

Acceptance of facts and likely direction of travel will help you understand more in the long run. 

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2 hours ago, E17boy said:

Hi peeps 😊

Dear oh dear just had a read on Gavs January outlook and a sneak preview on February. It's best if you don't look at it although that far ahead is just for fun anything past 5 or six days is gospel but just a general trend outlook. Anyway looks as if this pattern is going to continue although after mid January it may be that high pressure gives us some frosts. Just the slightest chance high may drift to Scandinavia, however the chance of it staying there are slim as low pressure pressure to our north will flatten it.

Just to add salt to the wounds sneak preview into February shows  no sign at the moment of a pattern change continuation of south westerlies and rain.

Whether the above will pan out we shall see but it does not make exciting reading 😪😪

  I don’t understand why people are frustrated with model output currently it is not surprising they are for most long-range models from late autumn early winter predicted this outcome for winter 1920 even last month ECM Metea France and DWD showed this outcome that this winter will be mild and wet as for gav’s weather with showing what he is showing it’s not shocking or surprising for late Jan and Feb. 😒

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Just now, syed2878 said:

  I don’t understand why people are frustrated with model output currently it is not surprising they are for most long-range models from late autumn early winter predicted this outcome for winter 1920 even last month ECM Metea France and DWD showed this outcome that this winter will be mild and wet as for gav’s weather with showing what he is showing it’s not shocking or surprising for late Jan and Feb. 😒

Exactly, none of this is surprising and it is all completely as forecast.

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A bit less of the perpetual moaning by the cold mafia and a tad more analysis of the actual weather wouldn't go amiss. The weather doesn't go on hold because the diddums don't get their winter fix

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

This is why some people aren't cut out for meteorology or life in general. Fingers in ears, head in sand and going 'la la la' will get you nowhere.

Acceptance of facts and likely direction of travel will help you understand more in the long run. 

This is model output discussion so Moan in the correct thread its very simple and easy to follow even for you. shall I link it for you? 

Im well aware of what the models show, and direction of travel but I don't moan about it in here.

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It’s pretty easy to forecast a mild winter in the UK because even my pet budgie could do that as it’s generally the default anyway !

The so called LRFs which called mild are now being lauded as though the winters been and gone and we’re writing the obituaries.

Yes the models are poor for cold but winter isn’t over till it’s officially  over .

Even if January ends up mild February can still deliver .

 

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18 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Deary me what’s happened to this thread? 😂

Usual suspects claiming they have called the correct forecasts months in advance - same tosh every season.

Should you lads not be working for the Met Office by now with all these correct calls you have made over the years? 😄

Some folk on here are the weather equivalent of Derek Acorah (RIP) - must be lots of weather ghosts/spirits coming through Spring, Summer, Autumn and Winter...😀

Sam the Spirit Guide is the usual 'go to' source for long range forecasts. 

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11 minutes ago, knocker said:

A bit less of the perpetual moaning by the cold mafia and a tad more analysis of the actual weather wouldn't go amiss. The weather doesn't go on hold because the diddums don't get their winter fix

Cold mafia or mild junta notwithstanding, from a general weather enthusiast's point of view, there's very little of interest anywhere in the models at the moment that's even worth analysing. Out of all the possible outcomes for winter weather, it looks like the one that delivers bland is going to rule the roost at least for the next week. What's really going to get me is the lack of sunshine. I actually wouldn't mind the silly mildness if it came with brightness.

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15 minutes ago, knocker said:

The weather doesn't go on hold because the diddums don't get their winter fix

Much like when diddums don't get their summer fix i suppose then😀

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Posted (edited)
48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed, AND mocking those who tried to warn of the crap coming that we now see unfolding in front of our eyes. Back in Sep/Oct I said that this winter could challenge warm records...and it just might.

Hope you forecast an extremely bitter winter in the next few winters,considering how accurate your forecast for this pile of dung winter has been.👏

I still refuse to believe  however that this mildness can last till end of febuary.

Edited by SLEETY
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34 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I just can't believe the ones who are praising themselves for predicting this mild winter!! You must have one fantastic tardis or crystal ball.... Or perhaps I partyed to hard on New Year and have slept through the final 2 months of winter! It's not exactly rocket Science to predict a default weather pattern. For those of you coldies still interested... Keep the faith... Plenty of time for a backloaded cold spell just yet, or even a very cold early spring! 

Ok , of course +NAO is normal but surely 'default' is not near record breaking , which January could be.

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5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 

I still refuse to believe  however that this mildness can last till end of febuary.

It’s happened in the past even during cooler periods so no reason why it can’t this year.

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13 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Cold mafia or mild junta notwithstanding, from a general weather enthusiast's point of view, there's very little of interest anywhere in the models at the moment that's even worth analysing. Out of all the possible outcomes for winter weather, it looks like the one that delivers bland is going to rule the roost at least for the next week. What's really going to get me is the lack of sunshine. I actually wouldn't mind the silly mildness if it came with brightness.

Okay that's fine. I'll give it a rest then

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