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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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1 hour ago, igloo said:

very rare to see upper temps of +8c in northern Scandinavia at the beginning of jan.one upside it can't get any worse surly

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Incredible but becoming more frequent and once again the colder air is for Turkey and Greece 

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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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Blimey, this winter reminds me of when I first started watching the weather forums back in the early / mid 00's. 

Not even a toppler at 144 or FI jam to discuss at the moment though. At least the days are getting longer I suppose? ?‍♂️ 

The most unrelentingly boring output I can recall for many a year. 

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Incredibly dull but miles better than December. Hopefully that's the last rain we see for a while. Can actually go outside now.

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51 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Blimey, this winter reminds me of when I first started watching the weather forums back in the early / mid 00's. 

Not even a toppler at 144 or FI jam to discuss at the moment though. At least the days are getting longer I suppose? ?‍♂️ 

The most unrelentingly boring output I can recall for many a year. 

Not sure I’ve ever seen it this bad, apart from perhaps December 2015.

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49 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Agree 100%

A little like spring 2008 perhaps?  I think you’re probably correct.  I will probably get shot down in flames as being selfish but I think a poor summer this year, with northern blocking ‘could’ be a good sign for the following winter (if you want it cold)?  Note ‘could’.  Think back to the summers between 2007 and 2012.

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37 minutes ago, knocker said:

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

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I do need to lose some weight following Christmas to be fair! ?

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Put it this way, most people should count themselves very very lucky if they even see one flake of snow before Feb is out.

Oh I will!  Probably more likely to see 21C before February is out!

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8 minutes ago, Don said:

A little like spring 2008 perhaps?  I think you’re probably correct.  I will probably get shot down in flames as being selfish but I think a poor summer this year, with northern blocking ‘could’ be a good sign for the following winter (if you want it cold)?  Note ‘could’.  Think back to the summers between 2007 and 2012.

If we're to see any 'summer' this year I suspect it will be back loaded towards latter August and Sepetmber, which seems to be a common occurrence in low solar activity summers. 

Next winter is the one I have my eye on and have done for a while now. We should see a more cohesive ENSO signature, we'll have the E QBO being flushed out and hopefully we can get the NE Pacific to cool somewhat. I'm VERY hopeful for next winter, even at this juncture.

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21 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Next winter is the one I have my eye on and have done for a while now. We should see a more cohesive ENSO signature, we'll have the E QBO being flushed out and hopefully we can get the NE Pacific to cool somewhat. I'm VERY hopeful for next winter, even at this juncture.

I do hope so!  That NE Pacific is a pain ATM but if that does cool, I will be more optimistic.  As you've pointed out, other factors are more likely to be in our favour next year.

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2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

But they often are with the PV breaking down. There’s nothing unusual with that - more likely to snow at Easter than Xmas etc. Trouble is they are about as good as an ashtray on a motorbike that late in the season. We want it now while it’s still dark and not going to melt away in an hour. Sadly this winter is just shaping up like most of the last 20-30 years.

Of course, but beggars can't be choosers and if this winter continues to be a stinker until the end of February, I will happily take some spring snow, even if it is short lived!

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3 hours ago, CreweCold said:

This winter is done as far as anything tangible from the strat is concerned. However, if we happen to catch the break up of the sPV towards March/April we could be looking at a very potent late season cold spell IMO. 

Potential is there for a miserable spring/summer IMO as I think a predominant -NAO regime will be the feature.

I’m sorry I’m obviously not in the know like some on here but how on earth can you say this winter is as good as over? It’s the start of January for crying out loud, things change at the flick of a switch and yes background signals can be good or bad but even when good they don’t work out in our favour so I’m gobsmacked that you can say that we would be very lucky to see a snow flake lol. And then to start saying summer will be crap.......think I’ll leave it there unless you wana make a prediction for next winter too.

if I’m completely honest I think things will look an awful lot better than they do right now in a week or too, can’t look much worse 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

That EC monthly chart doesn't hint at high pressure to the NE at all, I read that as more of a Sceuro block.

Maybe not in an ideal position for an easterly but is an anomaly chart at that range likely to be spot on, I wouldn't think so (whether it adjusts for good or bad only time will tell). I certainly wouldn't write things off as we have seen in the past how quickly things can change.

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Easy- what is there to stop the W-E flow in the upper strat which is connected to the trop? Nothing is the answer. The seasonal models had this winter nailed months ago and so far it's running exactly to script.

Yeah I get what your saying but to say that winter is as good as over at the start of jan is a bit ott don’t u think? Things chop and change so quick it’s unreal, yeah I no it’s more normal for cold charts and that to disappear than it is mild but I just can’t get the winter over stuff just after new year. I’m sure we will see in the coming weeks

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12 hours ago, Don said:

Not sure I’ve ever seen it this bad, apart from perhaps December 2015.

Corrr yeah I'm not a cold lover but Dec 2015 was unreal - I remember being at work on Xmas eve and it was pushing 18 degrees. It felt so "wrong" and I didn't enjoy it much.

I don't know how you cold lovers cope to be honest. This winter is the equivalent of me looking for warmth/heat in summer and after June being poor and July having no heat or improvement on the horizon etc. I would be writing summer off so I can fully understand why some of you are so downbeat.

I know a lot of us give eachother a hard time on here for our weather preferences for some reason, but I do really feel for you guys looking for sustained cold and I am a bit gutted for you that it doesn't look like materialising *yet*.

Of course, you can pretty much put your mortgage on the right conditions appearing into spring when it's too little too late.

If we do have a poor Summer at least we can all be miserable together.

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I hope I'm not posting in the wrong thread, but I read somewhere (can't remember where) that due to melting sea ice, the gulf stream would slow down, resulting in our UK winters getting colder.  Does anyone know the latest on this theory please? 

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12 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I know a lot of us give eachother a hard time on here for our weather preferences for some reason, but I do really feel for you guys looking for sustained cold and I am a bit gutted for you that it doesn't look like materialising *yet*.

Of course, you can pretty much put your mortgage on the right conditions appearing into spring when it's too little too late.

If we do have a poor Summer at least we can all be miserable together.

I'm not sure that is correct. Speaking only for myself, which is all I'm entitled to do, I have absolutely no problem with anyone's weather preferences which is precisely how it should be. But i frequently have a problem with how these preferences manifest themselves with arrogance and intolerance of the views of others being a couple of the lest desirable traits

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9 minutes ago, Mother Goose said:

I hope I'm not posting in the wrong thread, but I read somewhere (can't remember where) that due to melting sea ice, the gulf stream would slow down, resulting in our UK winters getting colder.  Does anyone know the latest on this theory please? 

It's basically still a theory...until it happens.

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2 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not sure that is correct. Speaking only for myself, which is all I'm entitled to do, I have absolutely no problem with anyone's weather preferences which is precisely how it should be. But i frequently have a problem with how these preferences manifest themselves with arrogance and intolerance of the views of others being a couple of the lest desirable traits

Yes, if i'm objective for a minute, I too have no problem with other people's weather preferences - however I can be spiteful and I get frustrated in summer because I enjoy warmth and some people here don't and seem to have no issue with revelling in it, which is when my little arguments/tiffs occur on here.

I don't think I've ever posted on here during a mild spell in Winter like "Wooo mild! Long may it continue!" because even if I personally don't enjoy the cold, I don't want to purposely annoy the many people here who do enjoy cold weather. That's just common courtesy IMO.

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I wouldn't say the chances of something more seasonal emerging are over, but the envelope of time for significant and sustained blocking is already closing fast.

The first half of Jan will almost certainly be chewed through in this flatter pattern, and to be honest there's nothing much suggesting we'll break out of it quickly after. This leaves us just a few short weeks to hit the bullseye in late Jan to mid Feb. 

Much later than that, and we're already starting to feel the effects of the longer days and higher sun. At that point I'm thinking of Spring, as down here in the South winter conditions generally start to get moderated by the turning seasons regardless of how good the synoptics are.

I'm not fussed with snow-to-slush and marginal events, just makes the place look untidy! 

So winter far from over from a general cold perspective, but barring an amazing pivot in the output, we're getting close in terms of the kind of winter many on here would like IMO.

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I'm not losing all hope for the second half of Jan in terms of cold weather for the UK . The Ensemble mean of the GFs 0z showing hints of height rises over Scandinavia at t360

The GEM 0z mean showing this too ( and the ECM both last night and this morning hinting at the same thing ) 

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The UKMO 0z was more amplified too than in previous runs .....so there is hope. Winter is not over on 3rd Jan

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Still getting used to living back in Central Europe and trying to decipher 500mb height anomalies how they end up reflecting at the surface. You would thing that this anomaly from yesterday is a disaster for central EU, yet at surface level in my location I managed -4C as Tmax today, over last week our Tmax hovers barely above zero and Tmin around -7C, I would say mean over last 7 days is around - 5C which is pretty cold. Yet looking at height anomalies you would think its horrid for winter weather. The continental climate despite luck luster blocking does manage to give you spells of really wintry weather at surface. The trick is living in a valley that gets sheltered from possible wind from west and being at altitude no higher then 800m.asl ideally between 300 and 600m. My location is just perfect for preserving very precious cold that is available ? In Ireland even the Beast from the East didn't manage -5C mean for 7+ days

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