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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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2 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

A lot of Turkey bar the Mediterranean coast is usually pretty decent for snow. Which surprises a lot of people as they think it's warm all year round throughout the country. But it has a lot of unusually varied terrain with areas around Erzerum & Kars that can be very snowy & bitterly cold. There's ski resorts around Erzerum. Chris Tarrant did a train journey from Istanbul all the way to the Armenian border & it showed how it got progressively colder the further he got into Turkey. Railway maintenance workers had to chip away at 3 feet thick ice inside train tunnels so the trains could get through the tunnels.

Yes its a big country of course with a very varied terrain and climate, I remember years ago when some Turkish bloke was talking about skying in the Turkish mountains, I was quite shocked at first, thought it was more of a desert inland. In fact it often snows more down towards the middle east than it does in Old Blighty.

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8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Yes its a big country of course with a very varied terrain and climate, I remember years ago when some Turkish bloke was talking about skying in the Turkish mountains, I was quite shocked at first, thought it was more of a desert inland. In fact it often snows more down towards the middle east than it does in Old Blighty.

Yes it's definitely strange to associate cold, skiing & snow with Turkey - especially to people who holiday in Marmaris every year. You'd have a hard time convincing them haha.

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It's quite similar with some places in Spain. When I lived in Madrid, I often had to explain to foreigners that not far inland from the east coast, it can get quite chilly in winter. Teruel is indeed one of the coldest spots in Spain for nighttime minima at least. Like Turkey, the country has altitude on its side big time!

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47 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, its usually my favourite time of the year for model watching but its got to the stage were i just quickly scan through with little enthusiasm ..

We are in huuuuuuge trouble right now if anyone is hoping for any snow or real cold!!!there is not even a glimmer of hope in fi land aswell!this is fast becoming one of the worst winters in terms of lack and snow to date!!reminds me of the darn 90s!!!i think we can write off the next 3 weeks aswell lol!!

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Well at least I don’t have to hibernate the weekend car, there’s always a positive side to a warmer winter.  👍🏻😎

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Another day and now looking like the first half of winter at least will not have really brought any winter to speak of; something has got to change soon to stop this winter turning into a disaster for cold like a large number of winters of the last 30 odd years.  If low solar activity and a neutral ENSO state cannot favour anything in terms of a cold pattern for the UK then what can?  I know that background signals like high solar activity and a strong ENSO anomaly either way and a westerly QBO put together are mostly not conducive to cold winter weather patterns for our part of the world, but this year's background signals like these should at least mean that the chances of favourable patterns for cold for the UK are better than in some recent years.

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On 31/12/2019 at 10:09, General Cluster said:

Fascinating, isn't it, WH? We can look at all those 'not-of-the-mild-persuasion winters' and legitimately dismiss both Solar Cycles and SSWs, as possible causes? They did all, if I remember correctly (by no means guaranteed!) occur while the AO and NAO were predominantly negative...?

I have grown more and more cynical over time with all these teleconnections etc.

Who talked about stratospheric warming etc before 2008? I don't recall anyone talking about it but it really kicked off with that event in January 2009 although remember talk about it in early 2008. The Met Office certainly never did to the general public pre 2009. Now its talked about every winter and cold weather lovers hang onto it. I was hooked by it back in 2009 and was told by more knowledgeabe persons that it could bring a freezing February, that was the expectations. The reality was it did bring a wintry first half to February but the second half was exceptionally mild. For such an event, the blocking wasn't spectacular. 

We had the OPI back in winter 2014-15 but that didn't deliver the great winter, then we had the torpedo fiasco the following winter which to this day I still don't know that  was suppose to be about. 

Now the low solar activity is being touted as the deliverer. Well it didn't deliver any great winters during that very low solar minimum in the first half of the 1910s. Infact, going off the last 100 years, suggest that those who want that spectacular winter that you have a better chance near a solar maximum. So maybe 2023-24 or 2024-25 will be the next 1978-79, 1939-40 etc.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

So maybe 2023-24 or 2024-25 will be the next 1978-79, 1939-40 etc.

 

 

Actually next winter.....is the great winter

Jupiter and Saturn will have a very close conjunction this year (should be a spectacular sight come December)...with the closest visual approach .....no less ..... on the day of the winter solstice.

To think all these cosmic forces coalescing, coming together..to be unleashed on the Earth...the polar vortex will be vaporised, enormous high pressure will sit over the Arctic of at least 1060mb the northern hemisphere facing its coldest winter for decades, the UK, a winter that will make 1962-63 seem like a day out at the local ice rink. 

You have been been warned....

😱

 

 

Edited by Weather-history

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10 hours ago, snowray said:

Yes its a big country of course with a very varied terrain and climate, I remember years ago when some Turkish bloke was talking about skying in the Turkish mountains, I was quite shocked at first, thought it was more of a desert inland. In fact it often snows more down towards the middle east than it does in Old Blighty.

Hi, I'm from Malatya and yes do see snow , quite lot in recent years.

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I have grown more and more cynical over time with all these teleconnections etc.

Who talked about stratospheric warming etc before 2008? I don't recall anyone talking about it but it really kicked off with that event in January 2009 although remember talk about it in early 2008. The Met Office certainly never did to the general public pre 2009. Now its talked about every winter and cold weather lovers hang onto it. I was hooked by it back in 2009 and was told by more knowledgeabe persons that it could bring a freezing February, that was the expectations. The reality was it did bring a wintry first half to February but the second half was exceptionally mild. For such an event, the blocking wasn't spectacular. 

We had the OPI back in winter 2014-15 but that didn't deliver the great winter, then we had the torpedo fiasco the following winter which to this day I still don't know that  was suppose to be about. 

Now the low solar activity is being touted as the deliverer. Well it didn't deliver any great winters during that very low solar minimum in the first half of the 1910s. Infact, going off the last 100 years, suggest that those who want that spectacular winter that you have a better chance near a solar maximum. So maybe 2023-24 or 2024-25 will be the next 1978-79, 1939-40 etc.

 

 

I'm definitely beginning to think the same.

But, even with global warming becoming more evident, I think favourable NH weather patterns will still deliver severe cold spells across the UK

Perhaps only 2 or 3 times every 10-20 years though!

Edited by snowblizzard

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5 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

I'm definitely beginning to think the same.

But, even with global warming becoming more evident, I think favourable NH weather patterns will still deliver severe cold spells across the UK

Perhaps only 2 or 3 times every 10-20 years though!

The last winter that brought what could be reasonably described as a significant cold spell in the UK was 2012-13.  There was a decent cold end to the 2017-18 winter but it did not last long.

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43 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I have grown more and more cynical over time with all these teleconnections etc.

Who talked about stratospheric warming etc before 2008? I don't recall anyone talking about it but it really kicked off with that event in January 2009 although remember talk about it in early 2008. The Met Office certainly never did to the general public pre 2009. Now its talked about every winter and cold weather lovers hang onto it. I was hooked by it back in 2009 and was told by more knowledgeabe persons that it could bring a freezing February, that was the expectations. The reality was it did bring a wintry first half to February but the second half was exceptionally mild. For such an event, the blocking wasn't spectacular. 

We had the OPI back in winter 2014-15 but that didn't deliver the great winter, then we had the torpedo fiasco the following winter which to this day I still don't know that  was suppose to be about. 

Now the low solar activity is being touted as the deliverer. Well it didn't deliver any great winters during that very low solar minimum in the first half of the 1910s. Infact, going off the last 100 years, suggest that those who want that spectacular winter that you have a better chance near a solar maximum. So maybe 2023-24 or 2024-25 will be the next 1978-79, 1939-40 etc.

 

 

As a long term member here - and also on TWO since 2002 (though i have long since defected to NW!) I couldn't agree more. I'm just a rank amateur with very limited knowledge, but buzzwords like you say have just taken over. There never used to be any mention at all of SSW/Polar vortexes and the like....now it's everywhere. A little to be expected with the rapid change in social media and more data being more accessible etc, but it's probably just heightened peoples expectations and made them more unrealistic. 

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56 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I have grown more and more cynical over time with all these teleconnections etc.

Who talked about stratospheric warming etc before 2008? I don't recall anyone talking about it but it really kicked off with that event in January 2009 although remember talk about it in early 2008. T

 

A Sudden Stratospheric Warming is a real and measurable thing though and does deliver a negative AO, of course we still need the correct blocking to get a negative NAO to tap into it. 

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53 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Now the low solar activity is being touted as the deliverer. Well it didn't deliver any great winters during that very low solar minimum in the first half of the 1910s. Infact, going off the last 100 years, suggest that those who want that spectacular winter that you have a better chance near a solar maximum. So maybe 2023-24 or 2024-25 will be the next 1978-79, 1939-40 etc.

The general consensus is that cold winters are more likely just after the solar minimum, as oceans tend to take more time to react to reduced solar input, thus there would be a lag in ocean to atmosphere interaction. Ocean temperatures, particularly the Pacific being the largest, having a large effect on driving weather patterns.

However, you are correct to say some of the coldest winters have been during or just after the solar maximum such as 1947 or 1962/63 and 1981/82. So the solar min is not the only silver bullet to bring a cold winter. There must be some other drivers.

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53 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I have grown more and more cynical over time with all these teleconnections etc.

Who talked about stratospheric warming etc before 2008? I don't recall anyone talking about it but it really kicked off with that event in January 2009 although remember talk about it in early 2008. The Met Office certainly never did to the general public pre 2009. Now its talked about every winter and cold weather lovers hang onto it. I was hooked by it back in 2009 and was told by more knowledgeabe persons that it could bring a freezing February, that was the expectations. The reality was it did bring a wintry first half to February but the second half was exceptionally mild. For such an event, the blocking wasn't spectacular. 

We had the OPI back in winter 2014-15 but that didn't deliver the great winter, then we had the torpedo fiasco the following winter which to this day I still don't know that  was suppose to be about. 

Now the low solar activity is being touted as the deliverer. Well it didn't deliver any great winters during that very low solar minimum in the first half of the 1910s. Infact, going off the last 100 years, suggest that those who want that spectacular winter that you have a better chance near a solar maximum. So maybe 2023-24 or 2024-25 will be the next 1978-79, 1939-40 etc.

I'm probably somewhat less sceptical of teleconnections, per se, than you are, WH; though I'm quite concerned with the naive way in which they are sometimes being touted:

ENSO does not cause the UK to have a cold winter; the NAO does not cause the UK to have a cold winter; the MJO does not cause the UK to have a cold winter, and so on and so forth...But some complex interaction(s), between them all (including those that remain undiscovered!) almost certainly does. What else could it be!?

Another concern I have is the possibility that, in a warming planet, there will almost certainly be 'oscillations' that have lain dormant, since way before serious meteorologic science began: is the IOD a one-off 'inconvenience' or the precursor to the establishment of a 'new' driver?

TBH, I do not know!:unknw:

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Posted (edited)
52 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The last winter that brought what could be reasonably described as a significant cold spell in the UK was 2012-13.  There was a decent cold end to the 2017-18 winter but it did not last long.

Here in West Kent, we had about 5 days sub-zero (minimum -10c) with about 10" of powder snow from the 'Beast from the East' Feb/Mar 2018

Although I'd hope for something more prolonged, I'd settle for that every winter!

Edited by snowblizzard

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2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

I have grown more and more cynical over time with all these teleconnections etc.

Who talked about stratospheric warming etc before 2008? I don't recall anyone talking about it but it really kicked off with that event in January 2009 although remember talk about it in early 2008. The Met Office certainly never did to the general public pre 2009. Now its talked about every winter and cold weather lovers hang onto it. I was hooked by it back in 2009 and was told by more knowledgeabe persons that it could bring a freezing February, that was the expectations. The reality was it did bring a wintry first half to February but the second half was exceptionally mild. For such an event, the blocking wasn't spectacular. 

We had the OPI back in winter 2014-15 but that didn't deliver the great winter, then we had the torpedo fiasco the following winter which to this day I still don't know that  was suppose to be about. 

Now the low solar activity is being touted as the deliverer. Well it didn't deliver any great winters during that very low solar minimum in the first half of the 1910s. Infact, going off the last 100 years, suggest that those who want that spectacular winter that you have a better chance near a solar maximum. So maybe 2023-24 or 2024-25 will be the next 1978-79, 1939-40 etc.

 

 

Interesting comment , there are a lot of theories I think for colder winters but often the result seems to same for W Europe = positive NAO index

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3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Another day and now looking like the first half of winter at least will not have really brought any winter to speak of; something has got to change soon to stop this winter turning into a disaster for cold like a large number of winters of the last 30 odd years.  If low solar activity and a neutral ENSO state cannot favour anything in terms of a cold pattern for the UK then what can?  I know that background signals like high solar activity and a strong ENSO anomaly either way and a westerly QBO put together are mostly not conducive to cold winter weather patterns for our part of the world, but this year's background signals like these should at least mean that the chances of favourable patterns for cold for the UK are better than in some recent years.

If we are talking about background signals, why is the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) not thrown in the mix?  It has been unusually intense. Given this, how do we know this hasn't upset the apple cart?

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Sonndalsora in northern Norway has set a new January record with a high of 19.0c

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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Sonndalsora in northern Norway has set a new January record with a high of 19.0c

Whilst we can no longer be surprised at temperature records being broken, Sonndalsora is not in Northern Norway and is on the same latitude as The Faroe Islands. It is more Central South Western Norway.

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Although output is dire at the moment there are 2 things i will be looking out for in the coming days in the long range hunt for cold

1) signs of a more Southerly tracking Jet Stream

2) possibilities of high pressure near Scandi ( which are showing in some of the GFS ensembles towards the end )

All is not lost on Jan 2nd.

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Sonndalsora in northern Norway has set a new January record with a high of 19.0c

Higher than the UK January record. Bizarre. 

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8 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Wakes up looks at models .....goes back to sleep........wake me up last week of Jan

I suspect you will go straight back to sleep then, too! 😜

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very rare to see upper temps of +8c in northern Scandinavia at the beginning of jan.one upside it can't get any worse surly

gfs-1-6.png

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