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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Jeeez i just looked at GFS 12z...

Its beyond horrendous for coldies it really is.

These runs this evening are the worse ever.  I can not see any great escape to the cold side. 

C

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I gave up counting the number of times it snowed in that cold fortnight last February when it moved into double figures. Trouble was none of them amounted to anything. Deepest we had was probably not even 2cm and the rest were just dustings. I suppose some might count the run of showers over numerous days as almost a single episode. It's snowed this month, though. Family saw proper snow on hills around Bradford but we only got a bit of sleet amongst the cold rain. However, we later had an icy dust that settled out of the freezing fog when they were getting a sunny day.

 

Death of snow is exaggerated. In my opinion, you are probably looking in the wrong timeframe for snow and cold if you think it will come at the bottom of the solar cycle. It looks more like it occurs nearly at the next peak for us. (See 1947,1979 and 2010. I accept 1963 doesn't suit).The solar cooling phase of equatorial seas (where most energy is absorbed) continues until the cycle has climbed half-way up again   - two or three years after the low - and then the lower energy tropical sea water takes a year or two to transport that reduced energy to our temperate latitudes. I'd guess at a colder winter here 2 to 4 years after the solar low - so 2021 to 2023? (Think along the lines of peak Arctic sea ice not occuring with the sun's winter solstice low in December but much later. The cold continues to push ice extent up until the warming phase begins a quarter cycle after the low, which is March. My guess is it could be the same with the solar cycle as it does match a few well-known instances.)

Figure2.jpeg

 

 

 

Edited by Aleman

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37 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bloody 'ell, December, that's optimistic in Thomas Mitchell Willis

Probably snow around Easter time, often does.🙄

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5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Night all, and have a happy New Year...And hope that 2020 delivers more snow than 2019! :crazy:

optimistic? snow on average getting less as the years go on

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3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

bloody 'ell, December, that's optimistic in Thomas Mitchell Willis

Just trying to be optimistic..... 😜

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Posted (edited)

Well I think it’s safe to say the start to this decade will be a world apart from the start of the 2010s, weather-wise. January 2010 was a great month, hard to believe it’s 10 whole years ago..

Edited by cheese

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Aleman said:

I gave up counting the number of times it snowed in that cold fortnight last February when it moved into double figures. Trouble was none of them amounted to anything. Deepest we had was probably not even 2cm and the rest were just dustings. I suppose some might count the run of showers over numerous days as almost a single episode. It's snowed this month, though. Family saw proper snow on hills around Bradford but we only got a bit of sleet amongst the cold rain. However, we later had an icy dust that settled out of the freezing fog when they were getting a sunny day.

 

Death of snow is exaggerated. In my opinion, you are probably looking in the wrong timeframe for snow and cold if you think it will come at the bottom of the solar cycle. It looks more like it occurs nearly at the next peak for us. (See 1947,1979 and 2010. I accept 1963 doesn't suit).The solar cooling phase of equatorial seas (where most energy is absorbed) continues until the cycle has climbed half-way up again   - two or three years after the low - and then the lower energy tropical sea water takes a year or two to transport that reduced energy to our temperate latitudes. I'd guess at a colder winter here 2 to 4 years after the solar low - so 2021 to 2023? (Think along the lines of peak Arctic sea ice not occuring with the sun's winter solstice low in December but much later. The cold continues to push ice extent up until the warming phase begins a quarter cycle after the low, which is March. My guess is it could be the same with the solar cycle as it does match a few well-known instances.)

Figure2.jpeg

 

 

 

Very interesting there Aleman, I have looked into this myself to a certain extent and see what you mean there with regards of this lag effect, the colder winters seem to start after the sunspot low point, 1963 being the odd man out. So was the so called mini Ice age around the time of the Maunder minimum caused by a series of very low sunspot cycles I wonder, creating some sort of cumulative effect in reverse, like a battery losing it's charge over a number of years?

The layman's count actually shows this current low to be similar to the Dalton minimum of the early 1800's, so it will be interesting to see what winters will be like in the next few years.

Sunspot_Numbers.thumb.png.e41ed5ca7ec5a8879ff5fe717a8bf82e.png

Edited by snowray

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happy new year everyone and wish you well for this coming year.looks like the first run of a new year the GFS is going to give us a storm to remember looks like a 925mb monstrosity

 

gfs-0-240.png

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I think that a closer to average and less mild winter overall in 2017-18 than in 2013-14 to 2016-17 and the late Feb 2018 easterly gave hope that declining solar activity towards the minimum and a neutral ENSO state helped winter 2017-18 be a significant improvement from a cold perspective than the previous four winters; but last winter which was again another mild one overall proved the question as to what does it take to get something decent for cold to the UK?  Albeit the QBO was more westerly last winter than it has been so far this winter.

Winter 2014-15 wasn't that mild, infact it was only 0.2C mllder than 2017-18

For me, it wasn't that too bad a winter. Better than most of the winters 1987-2008, infact according to my winter index, only 1990-91 and 1995-96 were better in that period. Tends to have been forgotten that winter.

Edited by Weather-history

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It's drizzled all decade so far...

Very inspiring:
image.thumb.png.30c3122b75bb0c0239a3a3eedcbba03c.png

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21 hours ago, Thundershine said:

Yet when we see coldies suffer in 20°C "heat" that's not being a "snowflake". 🙄 My God.

Here's some advice: If you see someone wearing clothes you wouldn't wear just because you have a different temperature preference, just ignore it and go about your way instead of trying to make yourself feel better by putting people down. And happy new year. 🙄

 Just pointing  out ,how bizarre to see nearly everyone wrapped up,when it wasn’t feeling cold, andnot just the   frail and old.

Dont bother replying if it bothers you someone talking about something they noticed regarding weather in a weather forum.

The sun was out,no wind and 10c,,People obviously don’t check the weather forecasts,they see its winter then think oh it be cold outside,not in U.K. much these days.

You don’t suffer so much in the heat,just wear less,obviously .

  

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 Just pointing  out ,how bizarre to see nearly everyone wrapped up,when it wasn’t feeling cold, andnot just the   frail and old.

Dont bother replying if it bothers you someone talking about something they noticed regarding weather in a weather forum.

The sun was out,no wind and 10c,,People obviously don’t check the weather forecasts,they see its winter then think oh it be cold outside,not in U.K. much these days.

You don’t suffer so much in the heat,just wear less,obviously .

  

More than likely they popped into NW and come away totally confused which is understandable

Edited by knocker

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1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

 Just pointing  out ,how bizarre to see nearly everyone wrapped up,when it wasn’t feeling cold, andnot just the   frail and old.

Dont bother replying if it bothers you someone talking about something they noticed regarding weather in a weather forum.

The sun was out,no wind and 10c,,People obviously don’t check the weather forecasts,they see its winter then think oh it be cold outside,not in U.K. much these days.

You don’t suffer so much in the heat,just wear less,obviously .

  

I tell you what is bizarre.Seeing blokes wearing a bobby hat, coat, gloves but wearing ............shorts?

WTF? I passed two blokes within 5 minutes walking their dogs on the moss back on a chilly November morning with that get up. 

Weird!

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

 Just pointing  out ,how bizarre to see nearly everyone wrapped up,when it wasn’t feeling cold, andnot just the   frail and old.

Dont bother replying if it bothers you someone talking about something they noticed regarding weather in a weather forum.

The sun was out,no wind and 10c,,People obviously don’t check the weather forecasts,they see its winter then think oh it be cold outside,not in U.K. much these days.

You don’t suffer so much in the heat,just wear less,obviously .

  

Not feeling cold to you.

I'll reply because it's a public forum. Yes, sunny 10°C is cold, to me, and coat weather. Doesn't make me a "snowflake" or a wuss, or anything else, just someone with different temperature tolerances. And I used to live at 1,000ft AMSL during December 2010, no problems at all, I just put on more layers and a scarf and gloves. No problem whatsoever

If you don't like your comments challenged, perhaps it's you who shouldn't be posting on a forum, not me.

Edited by Thundershine

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Posted (edited)

I guess I'm lucky -- anything above about 8C is warm enough for a tee-shirt. Having said that, I was a tad puzzled by peeps' wearing overcoats, hats and gloves, when temps were around 20C, last February...Would they do that were it sunny and 20C in June?:unsure2:

Edited by General Cluster

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I guess I'm lucky -- anything above about 8C is warm enough for a tee-shirt. Having said that, I was a tad puzzled by peeps' wearing overcoats, hats and gloves, when temps were around 20C, last February...Would they do that were it sunny and 20C in June?:unsure2:

Well at 20°C it's more weird to wear a coat sure, unless you live in Florida, of course. These people sound like the ones who didn't look at the forecast, but 20 degrees C is highly unusual in February, of course, so I think on that one occasion they could be forgiven for not looking at the forecast!

Edited by Thundershine

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Just now, Thundershine said:

Well at 20°C it's more weird to wear a coat sure, unless you live in Florida, of course. These people sound like the ones who didn't look at the forecast, but 20 degrees C is highly unusual in February, of course, so I think on that one occasion they could be forgiven.

The problem comes from the temp only hitting those levels for a very short period in the day. Last Feb was bizarre but I fear its going to become the new normal. Don't bet against a repeat this year given that were looking at high pressure being prevalent over Iberia. If this persists into Feb then all bets are off.

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1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

I guess I'm lucky -- anything above about 8C is warm enough for a tee-shirt. Having said that, I was a tad puzzled by peeps' wearing overcoats, hats and gloves, when temps were around 20C, last February...Would they do that were it sunny and 20C in June?:unsure2:

Well our continental friends would, Italians, French, full of them around Brighton and London. It's all about the winter fashions I have noticed in these countries, they buy the clobber and wear it no matter what the weather is doing. On the other hand I was in Gravesend on a sunny February day, maybe 12c at best, and all the kids were out on their bikes with shorts and no top on, that was a bit freaky. I had a mate who would go out with just a t-shirt on in winter even if it was freezing outside if he saw a glimpse of the sun, lads often go out in December in the evenings around here with just a thin shirt on, probably a British thing this to a certain extent.

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The discussion on here about detailed pros and cons of weather clothing is a bit funny and also quite vacuous.

 Surely the most important thing is to wear comfortable and appropriate garments, whatever the weather, according to individual tolerance/fashion/ preference.

Personally, in the Scottish winter, the default is three layers in the morning which may be peeled off later should weather circumstances change.🙂

 

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Posted (edited)

I note that the cold fraternity have taken to grasping at channel runners from the gfs nine days down the line, led by a two much respected professionals from NW. I have to say that this growing desperation in the search for cold and snow is quite unseemly. 😎

Edited by knocker

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What isn't funny on here is certain folk popping up and implying posts are mindless and lack intelligence. It smacks of arrogance and self importance,also a lack of understanding of the title of the thread!☹️

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1 hour ago, ciel said:

The discussion on here about detailed pros and cons of weather clothing is a bit funny and also quite vacuous.

 Surely the most important thing is to wear comfortable and appropriate garments, whatever the weather, according to individual tolerance/fashion/ preference.

Personally, in the Scottish winter, the default is three layers in the morning which may be peeled off later should weather circumstances change.🙂

Unless of course, one happens to be on the Autism Spectrum...?

As I can't abide prolonged contact with natural fibres, 'nasty' articles of clothing (scarves, balaclavas, woolen gloves and wooly woolies) were always jettisoned, the second I was out of Mummy's sight!

That was January 1963, and little has changed since, fabric-wise! :help::oldgrin:

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14 minutes ago, markyo said:

What isn't funny on here is certain folk popping up and implying posts are mindless and lack intelligence. It smacks of arrogance and self importance,also a lack of understanding of the title of the thread!☹️

What.......................just like the model discussion thread 😮

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