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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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It's been quite entertaining seeing the reactions to the Netweather winter forecast this year. Uncanny how (for a good few at least), a forecast for a cold winter is seen as the best thing since sliced bread. Whereas a milder forecast means that all LRF's are bad and Netweather have apparently never got one right anyway!

Anyway, even during a milder than average winter (especially bearing in mind the forecast for it to be 1c or less milder than average), cold spells are always likely. 

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5 minutes ago, Paul said:

It's been quite entertaining seeing the reactions to the Netweather winter forecast this year. Uncanny how (for a good few at least), a forecast for a cold winter is seen as the best thing since sliced bread. Whereas a milder forecast means that all LRF's are bad and Netweather have apparently never got one right anyway!

Anyway, even during a milder than average winter (especially bearing in mind the forecast for it to be 1c or less milder than average), cold spells are always likely. 

Yes I did wonder what sort of reaction it would get. But like you say Paul quite entertaining. A 'good' forecast is one which folk want to see regardless of how accurate it may turn out. No one knows re that from TWS until next spring but god him for doing a forecast as he sees it rather than pandering to the hope brigade.

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Think most people would have though a colder than average winter was more likely to be forecast than a milder than average winter ,because of the below average Autumn CET wise,and the constant southerly jet stream to go with it,and now still the jet stream looks like heading South after a blip at the end of the week,which is unusual for December.

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I have to place a higher degree of faith than usual in the winter forecast given there are not all that many other forecasts that contradict it terribly, Stewart's isn't all that different, i would suggest if the December CET comes out around average or only a tad above then i would actually lean more towards bang on the average overall as i do think at some point in late(ish) winter we will see a blocking signal and February has the potential to come out around 1-2c below average.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Think most people would have though a colder than average winter was more likely to be forecast than a milder than average winter ,because of the below average Autumn CET wise,and the constant southerly jet stream to go with it,and now still the jet stream looks like heading South after a blip at the end of the week,which is unusual for December.

But in fact, it's the opposite - many sensible winter forecasts (eg the ones which don't get featured weekly in the Express!) have gone for a milder than average winter. 

And if it were as simple as just looking at what happened during the previous season and expecting that to continue, then we'd all be laughing and no-one would ever get one wrong, but the weather just isn't that static. Put it this way - the summer was warmer than average, yet Autumn wasn't. 

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1 hour ago, Paul said:

It's been quite entertaining seeing the reactions to the Netweather winter forecast this year. Uncanny how (for a good few at least), a forecast for a cold winter is seen as the best thing since sliced bread. Whereas a milder forecast means that all LRF's are bad and Netweather have apparently never got one right anyway!

Anyway, even during a milder than average winter (especially bearing in mind the forecast for it to be 1c or less milder than average), cold spells are always likely. 

Just to clarify I wasn’t slating the Netweather forecast in anyway, it’s just that my preference is for a cold winter, hence my comment.  However,  I think the forecast is realistic at this stage taking in all factors currently available.  Good luck with it and I do appreciate the amount of time and work that goes into these forecasts. 🙂

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Hrmmm - unbelievably I'm trying not to get excited by next weeks models .....

 

1) it is still a week off ( can't believe I'm saying that)

2) I have to drive from Bedford to Dorset for pre Xmas run with elderly parents

 

V

 

 

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20 minutes ago, V for Very Cold said:

own up - who broke the forum 🤣

Perhaps it was the volume of traffic of mild weather fans celebrating the up coming SW Bartlett zephrys.

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Some nice charts popping up for a weeks + time... makes good viewing...but i'm keeping my feet firmly on the ground up here in God's own county and refuse to join the band wagon that as we all know has a tendency to grind to  an abrupt downgraded induced halt ! 😬....on the flip side...makes for some excellent posts and model watching...enjoy !!👍😀

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51 minutes ago, K9 said:

Some nice charts popping up for a weeks + time... makes good viewing...but i'm keeping my feet firmly on the ground up here in God's own county and refuse to join the band wagon that as we all know has a tendency to grind to  an abrupt downgraded induced halt ! 😬....on the flip side...makes for some excellent posts and model watching...enjoy !!👍😀

I'm with you mate. Some excellent viewing but I'm not ready to tell the family just yet.

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4 hours ago, Paul said:

It's been quite entertaining seeing the reactions to the Netweather winter forecast this year. Uncanny how (for a good few at least), a forecast for a cold winter is seen as the best thing since sliced bread. Whereas a milder forecast means that all LRF's are bad and Netweather have apparently never got one right anyway!

Anyway, even during a milder than average winter (especially bearing in mind the forecast for it to be 1c or less milder than average), cold spells are always likely. 

No big surprise there as the models go in and out of favour on a daily basis if they don't toe the line.But TWS had better watch his back as he will now be up there with me on the most wanted' list

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Yesterday was mostly cloudy with 5C when I went to bed around 1:30AM, this morning clear with just above 0C with no frost visible.  Currently full sun with no cloud so I suspect it's going to be cold overnight.  Although I detest the cold, a few days of snow would be welcome if only it's something new to see.  I don't drive so snow doesn't affect me although I can't ride a bike in icy/snowy weather.

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To my eye, there appears to be huge uncertainty even early on in how the depressions being ejected across the Atlantic will disrupt, elongate, slide (whatever you want to call it). E.g. GFS 06z T90 vs UKMO 00z T96:

gfsnh-0-90.png?6

UN96-21.GIF?03-06

The UKMO has the depression south of Greenland more organised and consequently it barrels across before filling out mid-ocean . The same feature on the GFS is already under pressure (literally!) and stretched. The consequences a couple of days later are stark; GFS T138 vs UKMO T144:

gfsnh-0-138.png?6

UN144-21.GIF?03-06

 

A long way to go before even that period is resolved without worrying about home counties blizzards later on.

 

 

Edited by Yarmy

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Yes,need to get this cold spell in the reliable timeframe,the models tend to over amplify everything regarding cold weather.

If it does come off than a below average CET would seem more than likely .

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One month ahead is pushing the boundaries of science imo, let alone 3.

No forecast (3 month) can be good or bad, it will either be right or wrong or mostly right or wrong lol.

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

BOOM!

image.thumb.png.336f684bb3b17faeda1e9df9a71f785c.png

Very nice, get the theme to within 96hrs then....

I went cold, CET 3.4

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1 minute ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Very nice, get the theme to within 96hrs then....

I went cold, CET 3.4

Still sticking with average - thinking some mild spells as well but lets hope the first half can deliver something - worry about the second half later - if there is no chance of anything soon then yes start thinking of 1 month and greater out but like you say when there is something at 200 - concentrate on seeing it come in reliable range.

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