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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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I have family coming from Australia for the first 3 weeks of January.The Aussies amongst them are excited about the cold weather.With the colder snap in November and a sprinkle of snow a couple of weeks ago it was all looking at least a better than average we would get some snow during their stay but unfortunately it is looking like we will be lucky to see a groundfrost and we will be looking for our shorts and T shirts for those winter walks in 15 degree heat.

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14 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

I have family coming from Australia for the first 3 weeks of January.The Aussies amongst them are excited about the cold weather.With the colder snap in November and a sprinkle of snow a couple of weeks ago it was all looking at least a better than average we would get some snow during their stay but unfortunately it is looking like we will be lucky to see a groundfrost and we will be looking for our shorts and T shirts for those winter walks in 15 degree heat.

the last few runs from the GFS are starting to hint at something more wintery in the 2nd week of Jan whether or not that comes to anything is anyone's guess but they may get lucky.but after the dreadfull heatwave and fires they have had early teens may feel a bit on the cold side

Edited by igloo

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Really loving this very rare mild and dry weather, been hill walking, forest hike and even a trip to the beach. as an out doors person it is a real treat for december as I live in western Ireland the weather can be atrocious this time of year thus preventing much outdoor activity to happen.

also very pleasant to meander around the house in a t shirt and have the central heating off, indoor temp is around 18.0c this morning with no heating on. very nice experience.

Edited by Minus 10
additional information

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12 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

This is very true- NW England is the absolute pits - it was never great but the last 30 years have been truly depressing.

Broadly speaking its dull and damp pretty much all year round, give or take the odd few weeks..

OP lives Dorset - where we went on holiday every year since 2003 (Corfe Castle) -  in all the July / Augusts we hardly had a fortnight with any memorable rain - but witnessed a decent verging on apocalyptic thunderstorm this Summer.

 

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12 hours ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

MAKE IT STOP....

MAKE IT STOP....

h500slp.thumb.png.896ae7fdced48e224a14d9539e4befff.png

😱

I feel for those poor souls trying to scratch a living out of the Ski industry in the Highlands. Its bad enough with-out a defunct mountain rail cable again and no snow show.

C

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Sadly no sign at all of me having to stop wearing the old shorts everyday soon,the outlook is shocking. Not actually even had any heating on at home for most of this month it's so mild. Just hope there's no repeat of last years high temps in summer,that would be unbearable.☹️

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8 minutes ago, markyo said:

Sadly no sign at all of me having to stop wearing the old shorts everyday soon,the outlook is shocking. Not actually even had any heating on at home for most of this month it's so mild. Just hope there's no repeat of last years high temps in summer,that would be unbearable.☹️

agree, I cant bear the heat either

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On 27/12/2019 at 11:47, mountain shadow said:

If he turns out correct I would be asking him for his methods!

Uses varies methods he says,but never actually tell you lol.

I really hope his forecast comes off for end of January into febuary because the current output is as hideous ,beyond belief.

16.8 c in Sutherland at end of December? never get minus 16c there now,would they,unbelievable!

 

Utterly pathetic the warmth predicted for Europe over the next couple of weeks at least,when you look at that chart Summer sun posted.

People think it means spring will be a warm season,do me a favour.

I bet you any money that we will in spring see the perfect NH pattern that would bring frigid snowy weather if it had happened in January but instead it will come too late to last that long,but maybe the ski industry can take advantage of it.

Countless times we get excellent winter synoptics in Spring.

January has been pathetic for cold and snow for too long.

Edited by SLEETY

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Cassley in Sutherland, northern Scotland recorded a temperature of 16.8c at 3am

How often do they have those temps at that time in mid-summer, let alone December?!

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Well, a really mild day, today was not. After all the forecasting of low teens this late weekend/early week, we have been scraping around 8°C all day, only 1 degree or so above average. I expect tomorrow will be no better.

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3 hours ago, Don said:

How often do they have those temps at that time in mid-summer, let alone December?!

Quite often I would have thought with all the recent heatwaves nationwide

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7 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Quite often I would have thought with all the recent heatwaves nationwide

It's still remarkable to have that sort of temperature up there at 3am in December, though, even taking into account the warming climate.

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

It's still remarkable to have that sort of temperature up there at 3am in December, though, even taking into account the warming climate.

The foehn effect coupled with a long draw of moist tropical maritime airmass would produce these synoptics every time. Not really that surprising.

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23 minutes ago, Don said:

It's still remarkable to have that sort of temperature up there at 3am in December, though, even taking into account the warming climate.

Aye not so much though in Tracey Margaret Wilson

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3 hours ago, Don said:

How often do they have those temps at that time in mid-summer, let alone December?!

Scotland holds 7 daily maximums or joint maxs for December with Cape Wrath holding 3 of them.Yes no doubt the Fohn effect with temps of 17.3 and 18.4

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I have this feeling its going to be a snowless winter for many.

I hope I'm wrong.. sorry folks just don't see anything special. 

Let's hope we get a decent summer from it... and not raging northerly winds in July. 

 

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We get southerlies in winter, and I bet we get northerlies again in spring, is the climate back to front?? 

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This country can always be summed up as 'right synoptics, wrong time of year'. Northerly summers, westerly autumns, southerly winters, easterly springs!

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5 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

The foehn effect coupled with a long draw of moist tropical maritime airmass would produce these synoptics every time. Not really that surprising.

Yes foehn effect reason why, N Wales can also benefit from unusual warmth in winter with long drawn southerlies. I think Jan 2003 produced the warmest maxima in Aboyne - of something like 18.3 degrees, might be wrong..

The predicted double digit maxima for much of England hasn't materialised due to no mixing of air at the surface, no wind, and instead lots of cloud and at this time of year, that usually means only slightly above average maxima - also the air is coming off a cooling continent, France, southerlies in high pressure set ups, by this time of year don't equate to warmth in England and Wales, indeed they can bring cold, you need a more SW feed, as is happening over Scotland.

Back to the winter - yes so far it has been very uninspiring for many wanting significant cold and snow, from a Lake District perspective its been a preety typical December in this respect, a month that often snatches away the cold and snow quickly as the atlantic moves in. The true winter months are Jan- March.

Hoping New Year brings a change in fortune and we lose the rather drab dank conditions - have a feeling it will be a winter when the cold comes in the second half, as statistically it tends to do.

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4 hours ago, hillbilly said:

Scotland holds 7 daily maximums or joint maxs for December with Cape Wrath holding 3 of them.Yes no doubt the Fohn effect with temps of 17.3 and 18.4

Worth noting in these setups that places like Cassley, Sutherland are actually further west than Exeter.  18.3 at Achnashellach in the north-west Highlands on 2nd December 1948 is another that jumps out from the daily maximum records list.  

http://www.torro.org.uk/hightempsyear.php#December

Places in the north-east like Aboyne and Lossiemouth can get high temperatures from the Fohn effect too, mind you, being in the lee of the Cairngorms from a southerly/south-westerly.

 

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Yes foehn effect reason why, N Wales can also benefit from unusual warmth in winter with long drawn southerlies. I think Jan 2003 produced the warmest maxima in Aboyne - of something like 18.3 degrees, might be wrong..

The predicted double digit maxima for much of England hasn't materialised due to no mixing of air at the surface, no wind, and instead lots of cloud and at this time of year, that usually means only slightly above average maxima - also the air is coming off a cooling continent, France, southerlies in high pressure set ups, by this time of year don't equate to warmth in England and Wales, indeed they can bring cold, you need a more SW feed, as is happening over Scotland.

Back to the winter - yes so far it has been very uninspiring for many wanting significant cold and snow, from a Lake District perspective its been a preety typical December in this respect, a month that often snatches away the cold and snow quickly as the atlantic moves in. The true winter months are Jan- March.

Hoping New Year brings a change in fortune and we lose the rather drab dank conditions - have a feeling it will be a winter when the cold comes in the second half, as statistically it tends to do.

Yes, 18.3 on 26 January 2003 at Aboyne, and it snowed a few days later...

Today was mild, sunny and windy in the central belt of Scotland - felt reminiscent of a late March day.

 

Edited by Spindrift2017

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4 hours ago, sorepaw1 said:

I have this feeling its going to be a snowless winter for many.

I hope I'm wrong.. sorry folks just don't see anything special. 

Let's hope we get a decent summer from it... and not raging northerly winds in July. 

 

Long way to go yet, some years we have had to wait until the tail end of Feb for first snowfalls, 1998 a good example, as the saying goes ' as the days lengthen the cold strengthens', meaning statistically the second half of the winter is more likely to deliver colder airstreams than the first half, as the atlantic typically goes more quiet, doesn't always happen, but probability of northerly or easterly airstream increases - more so by March. Exceptions do occur though - winter 13/14 was snowless for quite a few - that was an exceptional winter mind. 

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5 hours ago, sorepaw1 said:

I have this feeling its going to be a snowless winter for many.

I hope I'm wrong.. sorry folks just don't see anything special. 

Let's hope we get a decent summer from it... and not raging northerly winds in July. 

 

well if it is to be snowless this will be my second year running believe it or not even at 302asl.the days seem long gone when the snow lay for 6 weeks in the shaded back garden

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What a pathetically grim winter so far...even worse than I expected as I thought we *may* still get some zippy little runner lows and squalls. The seasonal models have been bang on so far (aren't they always when they forecast +NAO).

On top of that, everyone seems to be ill constantly. Just grim. Roll on spring.

As for late spring/summer...it's a solar min summer so you can bet your bottom dollar we sit under a stationary trough.

Edited by CreweCold

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