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Summer Sun

Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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13 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The beeb are saying Sunday could hit 15c in NE Scotland

The temperature for Aberdeen this time of year should be around 6c

Assuming some good conditions for the fohen effect 

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1 hour ago, John88B said:

I must say reading through some of the comments you'd think we live in the artic circle. Winters in Britain are generally mild and the weather we've experienced so far this winter has been pretty much the norm.

The problem is extreme cold, snowy weather from the past sticks in the brain because it's not the norm, fooling the brain that it happened more often than it actually did. I can assure younger readers that many winters in the 70's and 80's were mundane, mild affairs, pretty much like this winter so far. Things really haven't changed that much.

Totally agree John88B, my father in law who lives in Kent talks about snow every winter when he was a boy (he's in his eighties) but I don't have the heart to say that just didn't happen.

I remember the really severe ones like 1962/1963 and shorter spells like January 1987 but they are still rare, especially in the South of England.

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1 hour ago, John88B said:

I must say reading through some of the comments you'd think we live in the artic circle. Winters in Britain are generally mild and the weather we've experienced so far this winter has been pretty much the norm.

The problem is extreme cold, snowy weather from the past sticks in the brain because it's not the norm, fooling the brain that it happened more often than it actually did. I can assure younger readers that many winters in the 70's and 80's were mundane, mild affairs, pretty much like this winter so far. Things really haven't changed that much.

I have never read so much tosh.Yes sure we had mild spells and mild winters in the 70s 80s and 90s but they were generally the exception and not the norm. You only have to look at Cet stats to see what is happening.

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14 minutes ago, hillbilly said:

I have never read so much tosh.Yes sure we had mild spells and mild winters in the 70s 80s and 90s but they were generally the exception and not the norm. You only have to look at Cet stats to see what is happening.

Surely, the majority of winters during the past 50 years have been average or above average?

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Just to add my tuppence worth as a child in the late fifties and sixties we used to set up a sledge run on a north facing slope of a field with poles and string defining it Sledging packed the snow and during milder spells  this would turn into ice when we got a ground frost under clearer spells.Cold weather and snow would usually return within days and fresh snow on ice was very fast for the sledges almost leading to collisions with the stone walls at the bottom of the field. This sledge run would usually last from New Year to mid March with freeze /thaw cycles (Green Christmas was very normal then to be followed by a white New Year) by which time it was pure ice and very slippy. There was also a sheltered  area in the local woods too where you could go for a walk in the snow all winter till mid March at 100m above sea level.The only winter in last few decades when this was possible again was 2009-2010. Also in my school days there was always at least one day a winter when blowing snow prevented you getting to school.Today this almost never happens.

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19 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Surely, the majority of winters during the past 50 years have been average or above average?

Number of winters per decade Cet 4.0 or below

2[teens]

2[naughties], 2[90s],4[80s]

3,6,6,5,3,2,2,5,5,6,4,4,5,5,6,5,8,5 [the last number is for 1800-1810]

As you can see there was a milder interlude between 1910 and 1930 but the spell we are in now we have to go back to the middle ages to have any comparison for and there are no statistical records for that as such.

 

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6 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

Just to add my tuppence worth as a child in the late fifties and sixties we used to set up a sledge run on a north facing slope of a field with poles and string defining it Sledging packed the snow and during milder spells  this would turn into ice when we got a ground frost under clearer spells.Cold weather and snow would usually return within days and fresh snow on ice was very fast for the sledges almost leading to collisions with the stone walls at the bottom of the field. This sledge run would usually last from New Year to mid March with freeze /thaw cycles (Green Christmas was very normal then to be followed by a white New Year) by which time it was pure ice and very slippy. There was also a sheltered  area in the local woods too where you could go for a walk in the snow all winter till mid March at 100m above sea level.The only winter in last few decades when this was possible again was 2009-2010. Also in my school days there was always at least one day a winter when blowing snow prevented you getting to school.Today this almost never happens.

I am in tandem with you there NL. Same era, the sledge was out most winters in the nearby Macclesfield Hills. Even when snow disappeared at low level , the hills always seemed to have a covering of snow for much of the winter time. I remember some great snowfalls in the late 50s through to the late 60s.

C

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1 hour ago, hillbilly said:

Number of winters per decade Cet 4.0 or below

2[teens]

2[naughties], 2[90s],4[80s]

3,6,6,5,3,2,2,5,5,6,4,4,5,5,6,5,8,5 [the last number is for 1800-1810]

As you can see there was a milder interlude between 1910 and 1930 but the spell we are in now we have to go back to the middle ages to have any comparison for and there are no statistical records for that as such.

 

Thanks for that hillbilly

I think there's an enormous difference between the type of winter weather experienced in lowland Southern England and more Northern area's with some elevation.

I was thinking more of the times where the UK see's widespread snow, ice and severe winter conditions.

I remember January 1987, we were buried in 50cm of snow with max temp -5c in Kent but in Western Scotland they were basking in sunshine with temps around 1c wondering what all the fuss was about!

Also, it seems ridiculous that a white Christmas is based on a single flake of snow falling!

Not many proper white Christmas's (widespread snow cover) in London during the last 60 years! 😢

 

Edited by snowblizzard

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5 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

Surely, the majority of winters during the past 50 years have been average or above average?

But even during an average Winter there was more falling & lying snow compared to the last 25-30 years. You only have to look at the Met Office's climate average maps to see this decrease. I'd expect the next figures to show an even further decrease.

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I just saw this on FB, are there really that number of people out there discussing & craving something that is now becoming a rarity in the UK, particularly England. I did figure it's got to be worth joining.... what do that number of people know over this forum (actually I didn't join).......

image.thumb.png.cebb6f16976abca908588aecae7e0527.png

Edited by Dorsetbred

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6 hours ago, hillbilly said:

I have never read so much tosh.Yes sure we had mild spells and mild winters in the 70s 80s and 90s but they were generally the exception and not the norm. You only have to look at Cet stats to see what is happening.

IMBY - looking at the 30 year period you've referred to. Cold, quite snowy winters 78/79, 1st half '81, 83 or 84?, 2 weeks '87, 1991, 1995. That's a minority in my locale.

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Another day, another shocking set of 12z runs.

The UKMO looked a bit more promising this morning, its hideous this evening.

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47 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

IMBY - looking at the 30 year period you've referred to. Cold, quite snowy winters 78/79, 1st half '81, 83 or 84?, 2 weeks '87, 1991, 1995. That's a minority in my locale.

Bristle boy, where as we've actually done pretty well in our locality over the last ten years with numerous decent snowfalls. Certainly many more than we had through the last half of the 90's through to 2009.

Edited by John88B

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2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

IMBY - looking at the 30 year period you've referred to. Cold, quite snowy winters 78/79, 1st half '81, 83 or 84?, 2 weeks '87, 1991, 1995. That's a minority in my locale.

You are probably right,at least in your location.Yes there are many areas of the country,mainly coastal ,even in Scotland that get little or no snow for many years.Away from those areas and particularly here in the Pennines we always get snow Every year,it has never failed in my 51 years but with the exception of some good snowy  spells around 2010,2013 and 2018 the rest have made even the 1997-2008 winters seem severe.We have seen some very mild,wet and almost snowless winters and to get through November,December and January in the Pennines with one 40mm snowfall lasting 48 hours  was at one time unheard of .Even in your location if you looked at the data there is no questioning how much milder it is yet we only have the 1910s to 1930 milder spell to compare as every  winter since records began in the 1600s were generally a lot colder than todays average.

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2 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

IMBY - looking at the 30 year period you've referred to. Cold, quite snowy winters 78/79, 1st half '81, 83 or 84?, 2 weeks '87, 1991, 1995. That's a minority in my locale.

I'm gobsmacked you can't see the change, sorry just can't understand you view with the overwhelming evidence and stats to prove otherwise

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12 hours ago, John88B said:

I must say reading through some of the comments you'd think we live in the artic circle. Winters in Britain are generally mild and the weather we've experienced so far this winter has been pretty much the norm.

The problem is extreme cold, snowy weather from the past sticks in the brain because it's not the norm, fooling the brain that it happened more often than it actually did. I can assure younger readers that many winters in the 70's and 80's were mundane, mild affairs, pretty much like this winter so far. Things really haven't changed that much.

Absolutely spot on, some of the comments in here are comical.

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I’m recovering from the flu. First year I decided to not get the jab and this happens.

I know it’s a bit of a myth, but we could do with some harsh dry cold to get rid of all the bugs going around. It’s been so damp and mildish, it’s just revolting. Last few days have had some ok spells though I was too sick to get out of the house.

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11 hours ago, hillbilly said:

Number of winters per decade Cet 4.0 or below

2[teens]

2[naughties], 2[90s],4[80s]

3,6,6,5,3,2,2,5,5,6,4,4,5,5,6,5,8,5 [the last number is for 1800-1810]

As you can see there was a milder interlude between 1910 and 1930 but the spell we are in now we have to go back to the middle ages to have any comparison for and there are no statistical records for that as such.

 

Well if you take the 1910s, 1920s and 1930s that's 3 whole decades with less than 4 each. Maybe it'll end up similar this time with just the 1990s, 2000s and 2010s that are so low with an increase due in the 2020s. One can hope anyway.

 

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46 minutes ago, Airedalejoe said:

Absolutely spot on, some of the comments in here are comical.

Maybe also depends on where you live? In Essex I can only recall two winters between 1962 and 1980 when there was not at least one day when we went tobogganing at some point but often it only lasted a day and could be wet snow.

We generally chose to go out tobogganing after dark when it refroze ( and still do given the opportunity, despite ever advancing years and generally mild weather here in Dorset)

I agree that a week of cold and snow was the exception rather than the rule - maybe one in three or four winters.

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55 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I’m recovering from the flu. First year I decided to not get the jab and this happens.

I know it’s a bit of a myth, but we could do with some harsh dry cold to get rid of all the bugs going around. It’s been so damp and mildish, it’s just revolting. Last few days have had some ok spells though I was too sick to get out of the house.

Had the jab - only just getting better - never again - whatever was in that injection I had the lot.

Edited by Iceaxecrampon

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3 minutes ago, egret said:

Maybe also depends on where you live? In Essex I can only recall two winters between 1962 and 1980 when there was not at least one day when we went tobogganing at some point but often it only lasted a day and could be wet snow.

We generally chose to go out tobogganing after dark when it refroze ( and still do given the opportunity, despite ever advancing years and generally mild weather here in Dorset)

I agree that a week of cold and snow was the exception rather than the rule - maybe one in three or four winters.

Yes but you cant complain when you have belting Summers......

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12 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

Yes but you cant complain when you have belting Summers......

This is very true- NW England is the absolute pits - it was never great but the last 30 years have been truly depressing.

Broadly speaking its dull and damp pretty much all year round, give or take the odd few weeks..

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Right, I am going to have a moan! In the right thread!

The Met Office publishes statistics of how many snow falling days we are 'supposed' to get.  I admit my location may not be the most favourable. But in most of the last 10 years it has either been zero, one or two, for any kind of meaningful snow - there might be the discrepancy, while one flake of sleet might do the MO, it doesn't cut my mustard!

That isn't winter.  I know there are many teleconnections and other factors that may  affect winter potential, here are some:

  • ENSO
  • QBO
  • SAI
  • Solar minimum
  • SSTs
  • Arctic Ice
  • MJO and GWO
  • Stratosphere

What I am not clear about is what is the pecking order of these influences?  Which trumps which?  Because most of them looked favourable for cold this year?  Oh no!  Let's invent another one the IOSD, the Indian Ocean Sodding Dipole, new one on me, to ensure we endure another winter of dross!  

And we are left looking once again to the stratosphere for some late winter seasonal weather, it might happen, but equally it might not.  Fingers crossed...

 

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