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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL

    I’ve  borrowed my own post from the “Music from Cold Winters” thread because I think we all deserve a lift .....Not models, but we don’t really need that poo right now. Agreed?

    The words just scream everything we want

    ”where joy should reign, these skies restrain❤️

     

    Edited by Northwest NI
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    Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

    One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

    You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Weatheronline month ahead forecast

    Quote

     

    Valid from 29/12 to 25/01 2020

    Issued: Sunday 22nd December 2019
    Duty forecaster: Simon Keeling

    A colder end to January, probably drier than December overall

    High pressure is likely to be more prevalent around the UK than it has been in December. This drifts north of the UK from mid-month and then tends to lead to cooler weather. There is uncertainty about the proximity of low pressure to the south. This could bring some wintry weather.

    *29/12/19 - 4/1/20*

    • Higher pressure building. Drier conditions. Cooler in northwest wind. Some rain northwest Scotland.

    *5/1/20 - 11/1/20*

    • Pressure continues to build. Drier weather, sunny spells. Overnight frosts.

    *12/1/20 - 18/1/20*

    • Hints of higher pressure building to north. May be a tendency towards an easterly flow. Cooler weather may arrive for all. Chance of some sleet in south.

    *19/1/20 - 25/1/20*

    • Could stay colder. High pressure north. Northeast flow. Risk wintry weather?

    *26/1/20 to 1/2/20*

    • Higher pressure stays to north. Westerly flow developing. May stay cold. Remaining risk wintry weather.

    **ends**

    Simon Keeling

     

    https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    There isn't going to be a winter for the UK IMO..

    Might sound dramatic, but all things considered, i'm calling it,as ever i would love to be proved wrong.

    Watch blocking take hold over Greenland by the time we hit March/April.

    Its so predictable and utterly depressing.

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    There isn't going to be a winter for the UK IMO..

    Certainly no sign ..... and I dislike a late winter so much as it rarely delivers sustained snow cover and messes with commercial stuff that the country needs to fall right in 2020! 

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    Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
    3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    There isn't going to be a winter for the UK IMO..

    We've already had more frosts than the whole of last winter here. Not looking great at the moment though, I admit.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    Certainly no sign ..... and I dislike a late winter so much as it rarely delivers sustained snow cover and messes with commercial stuff that the country needs to fall right in 2020! 

    Me too mate, i know some people are happy to see snow at anytime of the year but once we get to march,no thanks - it would have to be something along the lines of march 2018 to wet my appetite.

    The stronger sun destroys snow cover by late Feb - which is precisely why Dec/Jan are the 'go to' months.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, Northern Sky said:

    We've already had more frosts than the whole of last winter here. Not looking great at the moment though, I admit.

    Yes, i joked to my workmate as we were de frosting the car in early Dec about making the most of winter - i said it in jest of course, but ....

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    39 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    That’s my feeling too,bitterly cold end of January lasting well into Febuary,hopefully this place is buzzing then.

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    Posted
  • Location: Merseyside/ West Lancs Border; North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cool & dry, with regular cold, snowy periods.
  • Location: Merseyside/ West Lancs Border; North West England

    Personally, I prefer the cold when we're at the darkest time of the year; mid Dec - to late January - as it brightens the gloomiest time of the year. One feels it's a little too late when we get the cold/ snow late Feb/early March. In fact, the much lauded BFTE only produced a few inches for us here, and most of that had gone by mid afternoon - only the shaded areas kept a little snow. 

    If we can't have cold, then some long awaited dry weather would be much appreciated. (speaking as a cyclist).

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    14 hours ago, swfc said:

    Problem is carinthian people would rather watch I'm a celebrity and concentrate on EastEnders.the evidence is there for those that care.god help us!!!

    Think you are right there swfc. Thankfully, void of that dung Tv, wouldn't watch it anyway. No better over here. Yes, something seriously wrong going on with our climate. Read now that Obese humans are increasing the speed of GW. To many takeways !! 

    C

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    11 hours ago, Nath said:

    That chart is horrific, one of the worst I have ever seen on here in 15 years!

    Hi Nath, this mornings runs do not fill me with enjoy as well. Horrid set up ( 1989 like !! ) God forbid.

    C

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Here is a picture taken a hour ago . Hope it cheers you lot up. No mud Christmas Eve here . Very lucky to live high up in the mountains.

     

    C

    80265604_10158033060073628_3632754343356137472_o.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

    There isn't going to be a winter for the UK IMO..

    Might sound dramatic, but all things considered, i'm calling it,as ever i would love to be proved wrong.

    Watch blocking take hold over Greenland by the time we hit March/April.

    Its so predictable and utterly depressing.

    I have said for some time that I felt this winter was likely to be a dud and received some stick for doing so and have even been accused of trolling!  My main reasons were the bullishness of all seasonal models singing from the same hymn sheet with remarkable consistency through autumn, the fact that the warming world is making cold seasons ever more difficult to achieve, westerly QBO, no ENSO forcing, warm North East Pacific SST's, unfavourable North Atlantic SST's and so on!  The only real positive we have is solar minimum but that's not the be all and end all.  I have dearly hoped to be proved wrong but currently the signs seem to be getting bleaker each day.  My main hope along with some others was for a back loaded winter, but that seems to be a long shot now.  Experience tells me that unless this current type of pattern shows signs of shifting early in the New Year, it is very likely it will dominate for the remainder of winter and there are certainly no signs ATM.  Early towel throw for me this winter!  

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    So another mild end to dec,seems to often be a sign of not much joy for cold lovers regarding much of the rest of winter. The first nails in winter 2019/ 20 coffin being driven home imo. Maybe we will get a toppler or two or some PM shots but regarding any meaningful cold spell I think this winter is screwed. 

    Edited by sundog
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    11 hours ago, lassie23 said:

    If Judah Cohen  is even throwing in the towel then things must be desperate, what next........James Madden predicting a mild January and Feb?

    He would have a strong chance of being correct for a change!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    11 hours ago, lassie23 said:

    If Judah Cohen  is even throwing in the towel then things must be desperate,

    He is not throwing in the towel, think he and probably a few others are just confused with the current state of things (ie non favourable for colder weather) but still time for things to change in JAN / FEB ? "But if I don’t see much reason to feel confident about the forecast, in large part contingent on a weak/disrupted PV, I also don’t see strong evidence to walk away from the forecast.  Maybe in large part because it has been challenging for the weather models to correctly predict the state of the polar stratosphere and the behavior of the polar vortex with so many poor and contradicting forecasts and therefore, I have low confidence in any one scenario or outcome.

    So, for now I remain steadfast in the winter forecast that based on high fall snow cover/low Arctic sea ice that they will in tandem perturb the PV."

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    They seem to have called December correct, so I hope the January forecast rings true.  However, currently no signs of a pattern change anytime soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    13 minutes ago, Don said:

     Early towel throw for me this winter!  

    Winter is over not even a full month in... Merry Christmas Don ? ❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

    Winter is over not even a full month in... Merry Christmas Don ? ❄️

    Merry Christmas to you and all! 

    I can always find another towel if needs be!  ?

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold weather - frost or snow
  • Location: Ashbourne,County Meath,about 6 miles northwest of dublin airport. 74m ASL

    2019 has been a tough yr for cold and snow hunters.  2020 doesn't look like starting much better.

    FB_IMG_1576948450547.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    3 hours ago, LRD said:

    image.thumb.png.012b1b7bf49dff062d875947909ab6d6.png

    Just look at the size and extent of the high pressure to our south, SW and SE. It is huge and is now, almost, a semi-permanent feature that has given us very warm winters for years now (2009-2013 aside). But, also, generally, pretty warm summers too, especially down here in the south

    Bearing this winter and last in mind, does the low solar output = cold winter theory need a serious re-visit? Or is it too early for that. I can't help thinking other changes in climate are over-riding all current theories

    Not yet, 2008 had 268 spotless days and winter 08/09 was not a cold one...09/10 and 10/11 produced serious goods re cold.  I believe we are at same juncture so 20/21 to be ‘the one’. 
     

    BFTP

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    No snow show again at Christmas for the bulk of the population of Western Europe. No genius required to provide this this probability chart. All so depressing for snow lovers back home and most of Euroland.

    C

    zoom2.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

     

    Forget Europe, North America is the place to go for cold/snow fix these days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Not yet, 2008 had 268 spotless days and winter 08/09 was not a cold one...09/10 and 10/11 produced serious goods re cold.  I believe we are at same juncture so 20/21 to be ‘the one’. 
     

    BFTP

    Winter 08/09 was cold for the UK.  Only after mid-February was it mild.

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