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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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45 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

err aye, think that's very accurate

Two days in it aint.🤣

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11 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Two days in it aint.🤣

As with every long range forecast....goes straight in the bin🤣

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5 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

I've just had a long telephone conversation with an acquaintance of mine, S.E. Meteorologist, Ian Currie.

Like many parts of the Country, Mr.Currie has just experienced a very wet November at his home in Storrington, West Sussex.

Ian is expecting a mobile Westerly flow, to become established again after the current respite from the recent very unsettled Weather.

As some Forecast Models have been suggesting recently, he expects a Northerly and much colder Weather around mid-Month with some Snow. He expects this to be fairly transitory though, with milder and unsettled Weather to be back in charge again, for the Festive Season. He expects January to continue on a mild and unsettled theme.

Regards,

Tom.   :hi: 

Oh dear.....

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Another mild winter forecast,good,because normally  the complete opposite happens with these forecasts.

Not possible to forecast accurately months ahead anywaybut it’s fun to guess.

I posted mine,let’s have some other members forecasts too...

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28 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Another mild winter forecast,good,because normally  the complete opposite happens with these forecasts.

Not possible to forecast accurately months ahead anywaybut it’s fun to guess.

I posted mine,let’s have some other members forecasts too...

Cold snowy Christmas is my fun forecast.:cold:

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34 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Oh dear, its a cold start to winter.🤣

1989/90 had a cold start to winter, too. 👍

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39 minutes ago, Don said:

1989/90 had a cold start to winter, too. 👍

Cold or mild start, 'some' will always look for the negative, as sleety says nobody really knows.

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8 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Stewart (Glacier Point) updated his blog a few weeks back it's a long and detailed read

A short summary from the end of it is below

His full thoughts are on his blog 👇

https://centaureaweather.com/weather-news/solving-the-winter-conundrum/

Gav - how long ago did he update that please? - would be interesting to know

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Gav - how long ago did he update that please? - would be interesting to know

November 19th

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Just now, Summer Sun said:

November 19th

Thanks.

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So out of date then,two weeks ago,the atmosphere never stops moving you know 🤣😄

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8 hours ago, Don said:

Don’t like it 😢

really any surprise though? people these days still expect cold spells, time to be realistic, winters changed 21 or so years ago

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What happened to the fog in the South East today that was predicted ? 
 

Regarding next weeks ‘interest’ we need more Gefs members going below -5c 850s and the UKMO needs to come on board too which is looking flat at the moment for t144. Let’s see what the Ecm delivers this morning..

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2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

really any surprise though? people these days still expect cold spells, time to be realistic, winters changed 21 or so years ago

Not for Decembers as the 1981-10 average for Decembers is lower than the 1961-90 average. Januarys and Februarys on the other hand have been a lot poorer.

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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Well that’s then according to the Net Weather Winter Forecast, above average temperatures for Christmas and New Year.  Answers the debate about whether there should be a return to a hunt for cold forum, apparently a hunt for mild would be more suitable. On a positive note saves me getting obsessed with catching up during the next couple of months in the hope for snow! 
All my fun over, back in February with fingers crossed. 

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Not really. There is still the need for a 'hunt for cold' forum because then we know where the forces of darkness are lurking

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14 minutes ago, Biensie said:

Well that’s then according to the Net Weather Winter Forecast, above average temperatures for Christmas and New Year.  Answers the debate about whether there should be a return to a hunt for cold forum, apparently a hunt for mild would be more suitable. On a positive note saves me getting obsessed with catching up during the next couple of months in the hope for snow! 
All my fun over, back in February with fingers crossed. 

How did that 'BBQ' summer work out?

Anything can happen. Already talk of cold next week. 

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4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

really any surprise though? people these days still expect cold spells, time to be realistic, winters changed 21 or so years ago

Not really a surprise but that doesn’t make it any better!  Cold spells still possible but less likely.

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4 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

really any surprise though? people these days still expect cold spells, time to be realistic, winters changed 21 or so years ago

We still get cold spells. 

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56 minutes ago, Biensie said:

Well that’s then according to the Net Weather Winter Forecast, above average temperatures for Christmas and New Year.  Answers the debate about whether there should be a return to a hunt for cold forum, apparently a hunt for mild would be more suitable. On a positive note saves me getting obsessed with catching up during the next couple of months in the hope for snow! 
All my fun over, back in February with fingers crossed. 

If it does turn out to be a poor Winter for coldies we can at least chalk off lower Solar minimums as a factor.

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1 hour ago, Biensie said:

Well that’s then according to the Net Weather Winter Forecast, above average temperatures for Christmas and New Year.  Answers the debate about whether there should be a return to a hunt for cold forum, apparently a hunt for mild would be more suitable. On a positive note saves me getting obsessed with catching up during the next couple of months in the hope for snow! 
All my fun over, back in February with fingers crossed. 

Since when has any seasonal forecast been accurate

Don't give up hope of a cold winter because some seasonal forecasts are going mild.

A fair few forcasts went for a mild Autumn which didn't happen,and the forecast for an above average CET for Dec is looking shaky already !

 

Edited by SLEETY

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Hmmm.... lets review the evidence

- models agree on snow  - Check

- General election to disrupt - check

- Steve Murr has nodded sagely  - check

- NW traffic increasing exponentially - check

- Sidney memes appearing - check

 

oh - and I have to drive from Bedford to Dorset! - surely makes disruptive snow south of the M4 a certainly 🤣

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