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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

One thing I have always found very odd in this forum is the apparent lack of interest in the weather, and in particular synoptic meteorology, unless cold and snow are on the menu. If that is missing everything else is dross

I for one am not thinking of cold or snow. My primary concerns are...’when is it going to stop raining’ and ‘when will the floodwaters go away’

It can be as mild as it likes for the next few weeks, all I and I suspect the majority of forumites care about right now is that it stops raining, and soon. We’ve had this rotten wet weather for months now, and to say that we’re fed up of it is the understatement of the year.

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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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9 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

I for one am not thinking of cold or snow. My primary concerns are...’when is it going to stop raining’ and ‘when will the floodwaters go away’

It can be as mild as it likes for the next few weeks, all I and I suspect the majority of forumites care about right now is that it stops raining, and soon. We’ve had this rotten wet weather for months now, and to say that we’re fed up of it is the understatement of the year.

I quite agree. We will all be glad to get rid of this awful weather without without wishing for more in the near future as many do

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28 minutes ago, knocker said:

One thing I have always found very odd in this forum is the apparent lack of interest in the weather, and in particular synoptic meteorology, unless cold and snow are on the menu. If that is missing everything else is dross

I think it's a case than many have an interest in more extreme weather i.e. heat and thunderstorms in summer and cold and snow in winter.  It's the benign weather that doesn't appeaI to most (myself included).  I must admit though, most of my interest does revolve around cold winter weather.  However, over the years of following weather, I have developed more of an interest in other weather types, too.

I also agree it's important that the weather dries out.  The last thing we want is a 2013/14 repeat when many homes suffered flood damage.

Edited by Don
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32 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

‘Westerly’ dominated.  HP to S or SW and LP skirting across Scotland so drier and mild in South and wetter and mild north as a general theme

 

BFTP

What do you think about February - i think better - i might have time on Christmas day to build some analogues to show this.

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4 minutes ago, Don said:

I think it's a case than many have an interest in more extreme weather i.e. heat and thunderstorms in summer and cold and snow in winter.  It's the benign weather that doesn't appeaI to most (myself included).  I must admit though, most of my interest does revolve around cold winter weather.  However, over the years of following weather, I have developed more of an interest in other weather types, too.

A spell of relatively benign weather would indeed be welcome after the deluge in many parts of the country. However I'm not going to spend much time studying the synoptics of the upcoming broad westerly type in winter mainly because it is the default type in the UK. In winter I'm looking for an incursion of cold north-westerlies, north-easterlies even a cold short sea track south easterly anything really that varies from the boring Atlantic drudge we have had so much of in winters since 1988 bar a few notable long lasting cold spells such as in December 2010.

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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

guaranteed northern blocking in April,just you see,in this wretched climate.

Yep, 

I'm still unsure whether it is a natural cycle or GW, or perhaps a bit of both.But whichever way you look at it, winters here and in Europe are getting milder.

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expect a major change in the models for the period between Xmas and new year, watch the High over the UK around 27th , this will amplify towards Greenland /Iceland and pull in frigid North Easterlies

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9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yep, 

I'm still unsure whether it is a natural cycle or GW, or perhaps a bit of both.But whichever way you look at it, winters here and in Europe are getting milder.

Good I say, hope it upsets cash greedy energy companies

 

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1 minute ago, Timbo said:

expect a major change in the models for the period between Xmas and new year, watch the High over the UK around 27th , this will amplify towards Greenland /Iceland and pull in frigid North Easterlies

As much as i would love that to occur, realistically it isn't going to occur.

 

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

As much as i would love that to occur, realistically it isn't going to occur.

 

I think Timbo is full of Christmas cheers. I suppose when we all wish for that white stuff it will happen.

A stopped clock is right twice  a day. 

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2 hours ago, Don said:

I also agree it's important that the weather dries out.  The last thing we want is a 2013/14 repeat when many homes suffered flood damage.

You could say the last thing we also need is a repeat of a winter like 1962/63 which many seem to wish upon which is absolutely fine but that's if other weather types aren't frowned upon, remember many people died farms suffered with a huge loss of animals, food prices went right up, power cuts in loads of places and some places without heating for long periods of time which inevitably caused deaths yes it's rare to get that sort of weather and I've picked an extreme example but any snow and cold can be really harmful but it feels from reading some posts on here that  excessive stormy and wet weather is somehow the only bad weather type that no-one should like and people who like that are almost made to feel ashamed but weeks of freezing cold and places buried in feet of snow is somehow okay, both weather types are harmful and cause damage and disruption to people and I feel some people forget this. The fact that you can have more fun in snow is irrelevant. One main reason why I'm not posting in the Mod thread much atm is If you aren't showing cold then no one cares about your input apart from a certain few. The bitterness to other weather preferences needs to stop. 

This is more aimed at anyone not just you. This very straight to the point post is made after over 3 years of reading the same stuff. 

Edited by jordan smith
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The met office have issued a yellow warning for Thunderstorms tomorrow (Christmas Eve) in parts of South West England & Wales

05:00 Tomorrow 13:00 Tomorrow

  • Rain, hail, lightning and squally winds in association with thunderstorms are likely to cause some impacts to travel during Tuesday morning.

What to expect

  • Probably some damage to a few buildings and structures from lightning strikes
  • There is a good chance driving conditions will be affected by spray, standing water and/or hail, leading to longer journey times by car and bus
  • Delays to train services are possible
  • Some short term loss of power and other services is likely

Heavy showers and some thunderstorms are expected to move east during Tuesday morning. These will contain hail, which could briefly cover roads, a risk of lightning and also squally winds with gusts of 60 mph possible.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2019-12-24&id=cb2d3d4a-6ca5-46bc-adca-1a96372cf7b1&details

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Was looking at the mean CETs of Novembers and Decembers when November came between 6C and 6.5C and the following December was over 5C (as is almost nailed on to be the case this year).  There's very little to cheer when looking at the following Januarys and Februarys.  It's only happened 23 times in 360 years, but only on 3 occasions has the Jan CET been below 3.5C.  On those three occasion they were below 2C as well, but the last time it happened was in 1784!!!

I think we are in an early 1970s pattern of weather where the combination of Novembers and Decembers happened three times in 5 years and the ensuing Januarys and February were  mild and unremarkable. It wouldn't surprise me if we ended up getting as much snow in April as we see in the whole of this winter down south.

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39 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh what for a Xmas Eve 1940..

image.thumb.png.595da3596e33d78c38afebd610bcecb8.png

Very cold and dry, and then a few days later..

image.thumb.png.0d407927fade3662f3a98b4da37cf545.png

What a time to be a coldie in the UK!!

Looks pretty lame compared to 79-81?good chart put you get my point

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7 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Was looking at the mean CETs of Novembers and Decembers when November came between 6C and 6.5C and the following December was over 5C (as is almost nailed on to be the case this year).  There's very little to cheer when looking at the following Januarys and Februarys.  It's only happened 23 times in 360 years, but only on 3 occasions has the Jan CET been below 3.5C.  On those three occasion they were below 2C as well, but the last time it happened was in 1784!!!

I think we are in an early 1970s pattern of weather where the combination of Novembers and Decembers happened three times in 5 years and the ensuing Januarys and February were  mild and unremarkable. It wouldn't surprise me if we ended up getting as much snow in April as we see in the whole of this winter down south.

So none. ?

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31 minutes ago, jordan smith said:

 

This is more aimed at anyone not just you. This very straight to the point post is made after over 3 years of reading the same stuff. 

TBH what ever your opinion is on weather types (be it cold/snow, heat/thunderstorms, wet/wild/stormy/mild) you are going to get someone's back up!  Obviously, all weather extremes can be damaging.  It does feel on here that sometimes if your opinion is not what others like, you are accused of trolling!  (This is not aimed at you by the way.)  Take the above example of us not needing a 2013/14 repeat.  If I (or anyone) said a repeat would be good, they would be subject to stick from some about not thinking about those who live on flood plains!  And lets face it, we are far more likely to experience 2013/14 type winters moving forward, than a 1962/3 repeat.  However, all being said, I do get your point.  

Just to add, I'm not bitter towards weather preferences, I mention 2013/14 as we have endured a very wet autumn and could do with some drier weather. However, that's not to say I frown upon people who like stormy/wet/mild winters, and have never stated otherwise.

Edited by Don
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Just now, Sceptical said:

My guess of a wet and mild winter, is on track.

Difficult to disagree so far!  However, lets see where we stand in two months time.

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