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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

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1 hour ago, Matty88 said:

If anyone is taking the GFS for granted on here they may as well roll a dice on the next weather pattern... the GFS has been utter trollop. You may as well conclude that whatever it says for early January it means the opposite scenerio! On a serious note it's concerning that in this day and age we seem to be going backwards with accuracy of forecasting in certain respects, not forwards - despite the advance in computer systems. A bad show. 

Back to the here and now - pretty much everything now points to HP taking charge following Christmas (which is a good thing!) - my monies certainly on that and not a continuation of pounding LP's into January. I may lose my bet but I'll be surprised if I do. On the other hand I'd rather HP blocking in January & February than in November and December - so maybe its a good thing!!  

QeMS.thumb.gif.7e068822242da756f06b5e0e3552e89d.gif

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Yes - as re:GFS and the whole outlook to be fair I must admit i'm taking a bit of a break  -  pine cones and model output at nowcast or T+0000007

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15 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

I live in Prague and it has felt like Spring this week, absolutely crazy. No sign of winter in the foreseeable, either. Heating bills are low, though 

Not good really (apart from low heating bills!).

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1 hour ago, Matty88 said:

On a serious note it's concerning that in this day and age we seem to be going backwards with accuracy of forecasting in certain respects, not forwards - despite the advance in computer systems. A bad show. 

I know it can seem like that, but it really isn't true. See here, page 18 in particular:

https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/elibrary/2016/16924-evaluation-ecmwf-forecasts-including-2016-resolution-upgrade.pdf

The graphs represent the days at which mid-trop forecast accuracy drops below 80%. For the NH, it's an improvement from approx 3.7 days in 1981 to approx 6.6 days in 2016. The SH improvement is even more striking: 2.2 days to nearly 7 days. 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Don said:

Not good really (apart from low heating bills!).

I moved here partly to enjoy more defined seasons. Definitely better weather here in summer than the UK (more sun, heat and WAY more thunderstorms). Winter is colder and snowier but not drastically so, used to be much more pronounced in past decades. Had plenty of wind and rain this Autumn, felt just like the UK. Nice thick fog today though, and chilly (3°C at lunchtime). Are you visiting this weekend?

 

C0CE486F-9DAA-4494-B5A6-7DEA13C8C52A.jpeg

Edited by stainesbloke

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16 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Game set and match eps over GEFS yet again - i wouldn't trust the GEFS to model the mesosphere or even the surface of the moon correctly let alone the surface pattern for a tiny island at the end of a strong Jetstream.

 

12 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - the same chance as perturbation 4 of the GEFS has of verifying.

image.thumb.png.37d32603367d40ec36563ebeb3cfd73a.png

 

7 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at these enormous and strong ridges doing long term damage to the PV on some of these GEFS members.

image.thumb.png.61dbbd843e0013fbd4efe6397145ed74.png

You change your mind as often as FI changes with each run feb :oldgrin: :oldlaugh:

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2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 

You change your mind as often as FI changes with each run feb :oldgrin: :oldlaugh:

No - Not changed my forecast - forecast as it was back in November still - winter of 2 halves - first half mild and wet, second half cold with Northern blocking, timing of change dependent on the SSW timing and effects, was just commenting on the ridge for the effect it will have further down the line its the trigger for an SSW.

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5 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

I moved here partly to enjoy more defined seasons. Definitely better weather here in summer than the UK (more sun, heat and WAY more thunderstorms). Winter is colder and snowier but not drastically so, used to be much more pronounced in past decades. Had plenty of wind and rain this Autumn, felt just like the UK. Nice thick fog today though, and chilly (3°C at lunchtime). Are you visiting this weekend?

 

C0CE486F-9DAA-4494-B5A6-7DEA13C8C52A.jpeg

Yes, I’m here until Sunday and have lots of good tours booked!  Was last in Prague back in December 2007 and the weather was identical to today, temperature wise and the mist/fog!  I went to Berlin this time last year and it was fairly mild and wet, whereas a few decades ago, it would have likely been much colder than the UK!

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This current pattern very reminiscent of winter 2013/2014

Conveyor belt across the Atlantic feeding low after low on a strong jet stream

So much rain during December, floods at Christmas in SE England

Not good if you are hoping for colder, wintry conditions!

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15 hours ago, Don said:

Yes, I’m here until Sunday and have lots of good tours booked!  Was last in Prague back in December 2007 and the weather was identical to today, temperature wise and the mist/fog!  I went to Berlin this time last year and it was fairly mild and wet, whereas a few decades ago, it would have likely been much colder than the UK!

Have a fantastic time! Might be a bit busy in the Old Town, go early lol. More thick fog this morning, feeling more seasonal though not as cold as it should be.

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1 hour ago, snowblizzard said:

This current pattern very reminiscent of winter 2013/2014

Conveyor belt across the Atlantic feeding low after low on a strong jet stream

So much rain during December, floods at Christmas in SE England

Not good if you are hoping for colder, wintry conditions!

True it’s been very wet, but there haven’t been any relentless storms so far like 13/14 and the pv was much stronger then than it is now 

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It looks mostly mild over and after christmas and no "real" cold as in below -10 850hpa. This december is still not in the category of the really mild ones (2006,2013, 2015) but still it's really painful to go through another mild december were the best snowfall usually occurs if the month is Cold. Later on in an average winter it's mostly dry so feels really bad at the moment .

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31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This colder drier interlude is turning into a blink and miss it affair.

 

Just what I said to a fellow poster on the SE thread...but he seems to think it will be a frosty dry affair, not so sure! (drier maybe).

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54 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

This colder drier interlude is turning into a blink and miss it affair.

 

Yes the bar is set pretty low tbh.its not even January yet and I've had enough!😞river levels due to rise again also.hopefully come march proper winter will have paid us a visit for one decent spell

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And a happy New Years Eve ! from GFS to a snowless Euroland. Horrid chart. Gut wrenching mildness for the Alps. Hope UKMO run verifies this evening.

C

GFSOPEU06_264_1.png

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Its all feeling like a complete waste of time,again.

Best hope is a Euro high.

Another  pathetic attempt at a Dec down the tubes ..

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I really hope that if some dry weather is on the way soon, it lasts a long time. I'm getting sick and tired of waking up to showers every morning. Not to mention, I'm still yet to see a high below 7C so far this December, so it's been devoid of even a single cold day as well as wet.

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2 hours ago, Beet said:

I really hope that if some dry weather is on the way soon, it lasts a long time. I'm getting sick and tired of waking up to showers every morning. Not to mention, I'm still yet to see a high below 7C so far this December, so it's been devoid of even a single cold day as well as wet.

Totally agree...I've been keeping late Autumn/Winter records for yonks and this is one thing that's becoming apparent - lack of cold maxima days, hasn't got below 5.5c either in November or this December including last year though we did have one particularly cold day back in November 2017 (30th) and a cold snap between 10-12th December 2017...other than that depressing stuff but what can we expect when the wind is continually blowing from off the Atlantic or from the south?

Edited by Froze were the Days

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4th month in a row exceeding 100mm now. 1181.4mm for the year.

142728944_historic_rainbyyear(2).thumb.png.e96ff4f5b3eda7e7d44269eed75cd00a.png 479565267_historic_rainbyyear(1).thumb.png.b1bd4171b75f8d9bbf90c00c4cc13a50.png

Edited by Mapantz

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