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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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7 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

The models seem to have great difficulty with the Indian Ocean Ocean dipole but once the MJO leaves the pick up the correct signal again 

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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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Since that lovely sunny spell in September, I think we've had two completely dry days here.

Let that be a lesson for anyone who starts talking about droughts and standpipes after a dry week in July. 

Winter fatigue setting in early this year.

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8 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

:cc_confused:

For the past 2-3 weeks the different members  ensembles of the various models each went in their own direction and there was no clear signal at all but it appears the MJO will emerge somewhere in sector 6(with a few members in sectors 5 or 7) with a bit of amplitude. We want the MJO in sectors 7,8 and 1 as they favour blocking in our region 

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4 hours ago, Azazel said:

Let that be a lesson for anyone who starts talking about droughts and standpipes after a dry week in July. 

You sound like a school headmaster...after all you are the authority on all things weather and fine to say in hindsight ? and 'one dry week in July'? tell that to a number of farmers in the south east and East Anglia from late July through August when it was particularly dry.

October was generally wetter than normal in the south/south east, November was near normal in the south/south east and so far December wetter. What seems to have made the last 2 1/2 months worse were the suppressed temps of October and November coupled with wet/damp conditions and the increasingly dull days of the last few weeks with consistent rainfall small or large on top of that, approx 40mm over the last 6 days here.

Predictions of global warming of wetter winters and drier summers is expected and to a degree have been experienced over recent years this Autumn has differed through October being cooler and wetter than previous sunnier and drier ones which has exacerbated the last 2 and a half month period being poor (in the south) and no doubt elsewhere. Agree with your winter fatigue point though, it really is depressing.

P.S. don't forget to say I'm a troll:oldwink:

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Nothing cold here recently just damp but at least it’s been calm. All I can remember from last summer was continuous dry weather apart from the first 2 weeks in June then the rest of summer I barely remember any rain, it’s like this part of England is turning more distinctly wet for winter and drier in summer

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8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

618.4mm of rain recorded here since September 1st. Tomorrow night/Wed's morn rainfall will make this the 4 successive month with over 100mm.

historic_rainbyyear.thumb.png.7a72a58e8d1e8f0680a04304d680c5a6.png

September/October you've hit the wet spot in Southern England so some pretty localised stuff going by the MetO maps...but November appears drier?

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7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

September/October you've hit the wet spot in Southern England so some pretty localised stuff going by the MetO maps...but November appears drier?

I don't take any notice of the Met Office maps as they aren't very good at picking out fine details. I sit between Hurn's Met Office station and the one in Swanage. I took each of their averages to make a single derived average which I pit my data against.

historic_rain_month.thumb.png.9f24769b1a36ffecd3bcfaf7d0fe932d.png

More often than not, I am on the receiving end of way more rain than Swanage or Bournemouth. However, Swanage can get nailed with large rainfall totals while it stays dry here.

Edited by Mapantz
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The words of doom popping up on the model thread. Building blocks are in place, something afoot, The run is an outlier. Regular hunting in the assemblies and love affair with any chart that shows deep cold at T1000. ?

I'll give up if December here comes in over 6C.

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5 hours ago, Azazel said:

Since that lovely sunny spell in September, I think we've had two completely dry days here.

Let that be a lesson for anyone who starts talking about droughts and standpipes after a dry week in July. 

Winter fatigue setting in early this year.

Yes talking about standpipes was very real in summer,here anyway as it was relatively dry for the first half of the year.Yet any betting man would wager heavily against it as that had followed on from the very dry 2018,not only that but the two previous years were relatively dry particularly the winters.To put in perspective we have had only 3 months up to September recording above 100mm in almost 4 years,that is by far the least frequency in the 110 year local met office records here.That was never going to continue and as it has broken spectacularly with the last 3 months all being wetter than any month since December 2015

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6 hours ago, Azazel said:

Since that lovely sunny spell in September, I think we've had two completely dry days here.

Let that be a lesson for anyone who starts talking about droughts and standpipes after a dry week in July. 

Winter fatigue setting in early this year.

Yes! It felt like winter had gone on for ages at the start of November... It’s the low sunshine amounts that have got to me most I think.

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Had a day of snow cover this winter so far, which is more than I could say at this stage in 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2018. Also more frosts than any of those years as well. So not doing relatively bad if comparing with a very poor average base state since Dec 2011, but not a patch on 2008, 2009, 2010 or 2012.

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After a much more interesting day in the models one wonders if it will carry on tomorrow, hope so I really do.

things are looking up for the Christmas to new year week which would suit me just fine.

ohhh I do like reading the posts in here when there’s something interesting starting to stir 

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14 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

You sound like a school headmaster...after all you are the authority on all things weather and fine to say in hindsight ? and 'one dry week in July'? tell that to a number of farmers in the south east and East Anglia from late July through August when it was particularly dry.

October was generally wetter than normal in the south/south east, November was near normal in the south/south east and so far December wetter. What seems to have made the last 2 1/2 months worse were the suppressed temps of October and November coupled with wet/damp conditions and the increasingly dull days of the last few weeks with consistent rainfall small or large on top of that, approx 40mm over the last 6 days here.

Predictions of global warming of wetter winters and drier summers is expected and to a degree have been experienced over recent years this Autumn has differed through October being cooler and wetter than previous sunnier and drier ones which has exacerbated the last 2 and a half month period being poor (in the south) and no doubt elsewhere. Agree with your winter fatigue point though, it really is depressing.

P.S. don't forget to say I'm a troll:oldwink:

Oh I don't think i'm the authority on all things weather - just give my own opinion which you can take or leave - you seem to "take it to heart" more often than not for some reason though *shrug* - everyone shares their subjective opinion on here, regardless of what the hard statistics show. We all "feel" the weather in our own backyards differently through a combination of preferences and confirmation bias.

My point being it is exceptionally rare in this country to experience prolonged severe drought conditions due to our latitude and the fact we are an island facing an enormous ocean. There were plenty of farmers and those invested in agriculture who said that owing to the incredibly wet June period and the grim autumn, their harvest/crop yield was effected. I believe baling took place a lot later this year in a lot of places.

Anyway, we're much more likely in this country to experience prolonged westerly wet zonal horrible weather so I just personally find the "panic" over a dry spell in summer a little weird knowing full well the rains will arrive sooner than later - and usually in excess as we've seen this autumn/winter.

The 2 dry,cold days we had a week or so ago felt like a novelty, it's been so revoltingly wet here - usually I don't get entirely fed up with it until late January but i'm already bored of it now.

As you wish. You are a troll;)

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Vortex/Jet (or whatever you like to call it!!) is throwing one last lot of LP's at us then later next week it finally shuts up by the looks of things. The atmosphere (or weather!!!) always seems to have a canny way of balancing itself out especially now the jet is running out of puff, I wouldn't rule out some really decent blocking into January 2020 on that theory and looking at the model indications its hopefully going that way.... I suspect winter will be truly arriving for most in January fingers crossed. We need that beast from the east! 

Edited by Matty88
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2 hours ago, Matty88 said:

Vortex/Jet (or whatever you like to call it!!) is throwing one last lot of LP's at us then later next week it finally shuts up by the looks of things. The atmosphere (or weather!!!) always seems to have a canny way of balancing itself out especially now the jet is running out of puff, I wouldn't rule out some really decent blocking into January 2020 on that theory and looking at the model indications its hopefully going that way.... I suspect winter will be truly arriving for most in January fingers crossed. We need that beast from the east! 

It won’t take much for the Jet to invigorate again in January. ⚠️

Edited by prolongedSnowLover
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3 hours ago, Azazel said:

There were plenty of farmers and those invested in agriculture who said that owing to the incredibly wet June period and the grim autumn, their harvest/crop yield was effected. I believe baling took place a lot later this year in a lot of places.

Can't really disagree with too much you have said but you've forgotten to mention the previous year (2018) when by this country's standards were close to a drought arguably from April 2018 through to October and even the winter was somewhat drier than normal and in turn particularly potato crops and secondary growths were affected as well as a delayed harvest but in general as you mention we do overcome it due to our proximity. Maybe last year had something to do with peoples paranoia about increasing droughts this summer though it was on a much smaller scale?

Global warming is predicted to bring increasing summer dryness and heat and wetter winters which in all probability will affect harvest and crops on a more regular basis, something our farmers will have to get accustomed to and ourselves on this website.

By the way wouldn't have even replied to your original comment if it hadn't been for your 'let this be a lesson' comment which had more than a smack of arrogance about it...;) 

Edited by Froze were the Days
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4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Can't really disagree with too much you have said but you've forgotten to mention the previous year (2018) when by this country's standards were close to a drought arguably from April 2018 through to October and even the winter was somewhat drier than normal and in turn particularly potato crops and secondary growths were affected as well as a delayed harvest but in general as you mention we do overcome it due to our proximity. Maybe last year had something to do with peoples paranoia about increasing droughts this summer though it was on a much smaller scale?

Global warming is predicted to bring increasing summer dryness and heat and wetter winters which in all probability will affect harvest and crops on a more regular basis, something our farmers will have to get accustomed to and ourselves on this website.

By the way wouldn't have even replied to your original comment if it hadn't been for your 'let this be a lesson' comment which had more than a smack of arrogance about it...;) 

Last summer (2018) was pretty remarkable I agree. I've been alive since 1985 and it was the driest period I can ever recall, with all the grass taking on a brown appearance etc - and as you say, owing to global warming, we will likely see more of these events in the future becoming more commonplace. 

I think maybe people on here are too hyperbolic (myself included) when we live in a country with no real weather extremes (apart from relentless extreme grey/damp) and we get carried away.

Anyway, for what it's worth, i'm not arrogant and didn't mean to come across as such, "let this be a lesson" was  a tongue-in-cheek turn of phrase more than anything. I respect your opinion and most of the more knowledgeable members on here who know a hell of a lot more than I do!

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