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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: T storms, severe gales, heat and sun, cold and snow
  • Location: Shoreham-by-sea, West Sussex
    33 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

    Midday 1st March 2018 it was -4C in my then backyard (Brum).

    I always struggle to get low temps being literally directly on the south coast, even air frosts are uncommon here, I’ll always remember that spell imagine if it happened mid January!

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    Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

    One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

    You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
    3 minutes ago, Freeze said:

    I always struggle to get low temps being literally directly on the south coast, even air frosts are uncommon here, I’ll always remember that spell imagine if it happened mid January!

    Indeed, uppers were astoundingly cold (-17C I think was the coldest?). Would have been utterly brutal had it occurred in January.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    1 hour ago, DCee said:

    Away from the hills I wouldn't bet against a snow flake not being seen this winter for the majority of the UK. I suspect the atlantic will be too powerful and continue to push all cold weather aside.

     

    Never seen a snowless winter. Even 2013-14,  it still managed to snow.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
    1 hour ago, jules216 said:

    despite being at modest altitude we had 5th straight ice day and that being below 500m asl,most of surrounding countries have very little snow and here is all frozen over

    Lucky you. To get my winter fix here I had to go above 1000 M. a. s. l. And even there it's not really anything special. Outlook is pretty bad so by the time Christmas roll in, everything will be gone even there.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
    13 hours ago, Tuxedo said:

    The days have gone of severe cold. I am talking about more than 5 days of sub zero temps. All we get now are cold snaps with no longevity.

    I posted this in another thread before but may as well post again. In the last 10 years the UK has seen 2nd February 2009 snow event in SE, winter 2009/2010, November / December 2010, March 2013, BFTE Feb/ March 2018 and who knows how long the failed easterly would have lasted last winter had it happened, over a 10 year period especially given our position and the fact milder winters are more common than colder ones I would say that is pretty good going and colder events are still more than possible (take a look on the snow and ice thread for many records for both cold temperatures and snowfall already broken this late autumn / early winter period across Scandinavia and USA) to think that the UK will never experience anything cold / snowy again is silly IMO, always takes a bit of luck getting colder weather in the UK but our luck will go the right way again at some stage.  I am fully aware about climate change but would rather not get into a debate about that.

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    Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK

    I'm thinking, haven't we had mixed December's that have led to fruition with snow and ice after the Christmas period?

    1978/79 started late I believe, some of the memorable 1980s ones in the mid part of the decade came to fruition after Christmas too. There's still time!!  

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    Now express etc should be all over this, kinda like 'warmest Xmas on record' uk to fry ay Xmas' or something like that, but no, they only do it to say cold wtf?

    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    21 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Now express etc should be all over this, kinda like 'warmest Xmas on record' uk to fry ay Xmas' or something like that, but no, they only do it to say cold wtf?

    h850t850eu.png

    They don't actually - they regularly call 100f in summer and forecast 100mph 'hurricanes'

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The enigma as to why I receive different model outputs to many in the forum remains unresolved.The latest thinking is perhaps interference from Russia?.

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    Posted
  • Location: Devínska Nová Ves, Bratislava (160m)
  • Location: Devínska Nová Ves, Bratislava (160m)
    15 hours ago, daz_4 said:

    Lucky you. To get my winter fix here I had to go above 1000 M. a. s. l. And even there it's not really anything special. Outlook is pretty bad so by the time Christmas roll in, everything will be gone even there.

    I'm flying to Ľviv in nine days. It's 11C there at the moment. ?

    I saw a snow map of Slovakia this morning. Košice had 13cm and nowhere else was above 5cm (nearby Trebišov had only 2cm and traditionally-wintry Poprad up near the High Tatras had a big fat zero). They seem to have been blessed for the past week, as it's been too marginal to the west and positively warm to the east. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and blisteringly hot
  • Location: Runcorn New Town 60m ASL

    Incredibly windy morning after last night's calm.  All the fronds on the ornamental palm in my garden are plastered backwards.  Otherwise cloudy and dry.

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    On 09/12/2019 at 12:37, AderynCoch said:

    I'm flying to Ľviv in nine days. It's 11C there at the moment. ?

    I saw a snow map of Slovakia this morning. Košice had 13cm and nowhere else was above 5cm (nearby Trebišov had only 2cm and traditionally-wintry Poprad up near the High Tatras had a big fat zero). They seem to have been blessed for the past week, as it's been too marginal to the west and positively warm to the east. 

    Well our snow has been executed yesterday as the valley couldnt resist the warm uppers and wind forever,now over 6C today and snow line way up over 1000m asl, percipitation this week will be mixed with rain so no hope for lying snow over next 10 days at least,how typical of recent winters

    20191210_083136.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor

    I reckon there'll be short term upgrades in the models tonight with more sliding of the lows approaching from the Atlantic on Thursday onwards. Expect to see some weather advisories issued by the UKMO for northern areas for Thursday evening in time for late voters coming from work.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Jesus, it's warm

    Its ruddy wet.

    And by and large it has been since the beginning of Autumn round here.

    Cant begin to tell you how thoroughly sick to my back teeth of it i am.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    warm and wet, or cold and dry, now until March, here no such thing as cold and wet between Dec and March

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    I’m hoping for a warm Christmas myself. A long fetch south westerly is perfect. Why isn’t there a model thread for the hunt for (relative to season norm and not AGW related) warmth I’ll never understand. You’d think weeks and weeks of the normal cold polar maritime would tempt a few over to the warm side.

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    Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
    4 hours ago, jules216 said:

    Well our snow has been executed yesterday as the valley couldnt resist the warm uppers and wind forever,now over 6C today and snow line way up over 1000m asl, percipitation this week will be mixed with rain so no hope for lying snow over next 10 days at least,how typical of recent winters

    20191210_083136.jpg

    Time to cherry pick the best ENS. Let's dream big, hehe. 

    gens-5-1-336.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
    Just now, daz_4 said:

    Time to cherry pick the best ENS. Let's dream big, hehe. 

    gens-5-1-336.png

    I was scanning through them and there are good few heart warmers on 12z GEFS, ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
    7 minutes ago, knocker said:

    The trend is your friend

    gfs-ensemble-all-avg-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-7188800.thumb.png.532890a053ab9d5caab24d8b2ffe4384.png

    With friends like that who needs enemies!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
    21 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    @Catacol Iam on the edge with prospects ahead,that cyclonic wave break in Atlantic is my wild card to save festive cold ?

    Hi Jules - I'm reasonably confident things will become more blocked in the final third of the month, but exactly where that blocking ends up is open to question. Fingers crossed the majority of the continent can get rid of wind and rain over Christmas and that we can get enough northern influence to prevent a draw of mild air. I have a funny feeling we might end up with a half way house - a UK latitude high rather than a proper high lat one or a Euro slug. Time will tell - last 10 days of the month just beginning to come into range of semi reliable modelling and clusters.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    1 hour ago, daz_4 said:

    Time to cherry pick the best ENS. Let's dream big, hehe. 

    gens-5-1-336.png

    Couldn’t just for once,something like this could verify,imagine the excitement  approaching Christmas.

    Instead the reality is looking like turning milder with High pressure building from the South.

    Why in the winter can high pressure easily build from the South,seen it happen countless times,yet High pressure cannot seem to build down from the North ,only rarely ,frustrating the U.K. climate is in winter.

    Yet come spring or any other season,no problem in High pressure from the North dominating!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 hour ago, Catacol said:

    Pretty much on cue - and the 10 days following this will be fairly critical I think. Seeing the vortex fire up now is not a concern to me really as it was always likely to do this during this quiet pacific phase at this time of December - BUT if the winter forecast I put out is to head down the colder of the two routes the disruption at the end of this month needs to be sufficient to leave it open to a knock out blow later in January. If the end of December does not produce the goods in terms of a slow down and at the very least an elongation then the prospects of anything other than a very bog standard westerly dominated winter recede. 

    900 is a decent start on that upper strat reading above, but ideally I'd like to see it at least 50% higher over the days that follow. All eyes on the pacific, and the extent to which the MJO can break out of the Indian Ocean and enhance wave activity downstream. Various plots disagree about the extent and magnitude of that breakout so take all FI runs with a serious pinch of salt at the moment. I'm not convinced modelling of the MJO and pacific convection in general is ever particularly accurate, and the standing wave scenario in phase 2 at the moment probably magnifies the volatility of output even more than usual. In these scenarios - go with the gut....and my gut feeling is that we will get enough of a push through to phase 6/7/8 to encourage the kind of wave breaking and blocking signals to get that wave 2 reading pumped up to more exciting levels.

    Who needs Peaky Blinders when the global weather patterns can keep you on the edge of your seat like this? The only negative is the driving wind and rain outside at the moment. Grrr. We in the UK deserve some winter and summer luck given the sort of atlantic driven nonsense we have to put up with 85% of the time....

    Hi Catacol, re highlighted bit, do you think that the progression of the MJO is hindered by the record positive IOD?  I'm trying to get my head round why this leads to increased likelihood of westerlies for us.

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
    3 hours ago, Catacol said:

    Hi Jules - I'm reasonably confident things will become more blocked in the final third of the month, but exactly where that blocking ends up is open to question. Fingers crossed the majority of the continent can get rid of wind and rain over Christmas and that we can get enough northern influence to prevent a draw of mild air. I have a funny feeling we might end up with a half way house - a UK latitude high rather than a proper high lat one or a Euro slug. Time will tell - last 10 days of the month just beginning to come into range of semi reliable modelling and clusters.

    Hoping this is the case, a dry cold theme over christmas with frost would very good, most recent christmas periods have been woeful, wet and windy with not much good weather for getting out and about.

    I would like to see a 2008 repeat, when high pressure nosed in just in time for christmas day, it then became colder in the run up to new year, we had no snow, but lots of hard frost and sunshine.

    We are long overdue a settled christmas.

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