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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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On 18/02/2020 at 15:44, cheeky_monkey said:

does it though??..most people who work outside make a contingency for winter working in the UK..its not like bad weather is something unexpected :snowman-emoji:

It depends on what it is you do, sometimes you might be lucky and get some inside work , but if like me  you do masonry work then it is a struggle when you get relentless  rain. In most winters you get the odd  dry week here and there , but this winter has been particularly wet. Combine that with a wet summer , and it can be difficult to put money back to cover yourself for winter weather. Most people in the Building Trade are self employed , so everything has to come out of that money , Tax , insurance  Holidays ,sickness etc. 

To be honest I'm not surprised the youngsters don't want to know these days.

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2 hours ago, 78/79 said:

It depends on what it is you do, sometimes you might be lucky and get some inside work , but if like me  you do masonry work then it is a struggle when you get relentless  rain. In most winters you get the odd  dry week here and there , but this winter has been particularly wet. Combine that with a wet summer , and it can be difficult to put money back to cover yourself for winter weather. Most people in the Building Trade are self employed , so everything has to come out of that money , Tax , insurance  Holidays ,sickness etc. 

To be honest I'm not surprised the youngsters don't want to know these days.

i have worked in construction all my life man and boy..i find mostly only jobbing tradesman suffer due to bad weather..i was a site manager back in that terrible autumn of 2000 building a hotel on a beautiful championship golf course..it rained everyday between August 21st and December 21st..my bricklayers and carpenters were phenomenal getting that structure up, infilled and roof on... they spent more time in the site canteen just waiting for breaks in the weather..even if it was a cpl hours between the rain..but boy did they turn out some work when they could...when it came to summer works i have often seen good bricklayers on site laying at 5am and laying 1400-1500 bricks a day..knowing the hours and the weather will be against them come winter..when they might be lucky to average 3-400/day or less or none if its a washout.

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18 hours ago, 78/79 said:

It depends on what it is you do, sometimes you might be lucky and get some inside work , but if like me  you do masonry work then it is a struggle when you get relentless  rain. In most winters you get the odd  dry week here and there , but this winter has been particularly wet. Combine that with a wet summer , and it can be difficult to put money back to cover yourself for winter weather. Most people in the Building Trade are self employed , so everything has to come out of that money , Tax , insurance  Holidays ,sickness etc. 

To be honest I'm not surprised the youngsters don't want to know these days.

I  worked outdoors until I was 44,working on a farm at 365metres in the pennines until I was 32 and then working as a general builder from 32 until 44 in the Halifax area where it can be shocking in winter,far worse than what you will see in the south.I work as an engineer now and most is inside,although I miss the outdoors I certainly don't miss working outside in winter and I never thought I would say it but I would rather work inside permanently than go back to working all weathers outside,certainly in these parts.

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It is now looking very likely that winter 2019-20 will end with a similar overall CET to winter 2013-14.  Now that winter was close to solar maximum and the QBO was very much in a westerly phase, so I think that background signals were very much not in a cold favour for the UK that winter, and yet this year we end up with a winter almost or just as poor as that one despite the fact that we are near solar minimum.  Now there is something seriously wrong with the weather patterns in the UK when close to solar minimum we end up with a winter as rubbish as the one we have had.  Granted the easterly QBO did not start developing until last month so possibly the QBO was not in as good a position for cold weather in the UK as it was in 2017-18, but I thought being close to solar minimum would have helped with a reasonable chance of cold outbreaks, but this winter has brought next to nothing.  

Given the way that this winter has turned out despite not so poor background signals, then something must have seriously changed since 2012-13 moving the UK into a "SUPER warm era" rather than the "warm era" that began in 1988.  Even in 2014-15 an exceptionally easterly QBO could only deliver a winter that was near or a touch above average, when this background signal would have suggested that winter ought to have been colder when it wasn't. 

The winters we have had since 2012-13, and especially this one and the one in 2018-19, combined with being close to solar minimum with no strong El Nino or La Nina, and both still ending up ridiculously above average, means that something has now seriously gone wrong with the winter weather patterns in our part of the world, and is strong evidence for a post 2013 super warm era in UK winter weather, and is good evidence to suggest that a winter like 2017-18 may be regarded as "severe" in this post 2013 era, and that it is no longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of wintry weather to develop in the UK, which suggests that 2017-18 is the new modern version of 2009-10, and something close to 2017-18 is the new baseline for cold in the UK.

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1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It is now looking very likely that winter 2019-20 will end with a similar overall CET to winter 2013-14.  Now that winter was close to solar maximum and the QBO was very much in a westerly phase, so I think that background signals were very much not in a cold favour for the UK that winter, and yet this year we end up with a winter almost or just as poor as that one despite the fact that we are near solar minimum.  Now there is something seriously wrong with the weather patterns in the UK when close to solar minimum we end up with a winter as rubbish as the one we have had.  Granted the easterly QBO did not start developing until last month so possibly the QBO was not in as good a position for cold weather in the UK as it was in 2017-18, but I thought being close to solar minimum would have helped with a reasonable chance of cold outbreaks, but this winter has brought next to nothing.  

Given the way that this winter has turned out despite not so poor background signals, then something must have seriously changed since 2012-13 moving the UK into a "SUPER large teapot" rather than the "large teapot" that began in 1988.  Even in 2014-15 an exceptionally easterly QBO could only deliver a winter that was near or a touch above average, when this background signal would have suggested that winter ought to have been colder when it wasn't. 

The winters we have had since 2012-13, and especially this one and the one in 2018-19, combined with being close to solar minimum with no strong El Nino or La Nina, and both still ending up ridiculously above average, means that something has now seriously gone wrong with the winter weather patterns in our part of the world, and is strong evidence for a post 2013 SUPER large teapot in UK winter weather, and is good evidence to suggest that a winter like 2017-18 may be regarded as "severe" in this post 2013 era, and that it is no longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of wintry weather to develop in the UK, which suggests that 2017-18 is the new modern version of 2009-10, and something close to 2017-18 is the new baseline for cold in the UK.

It's the lack of sea ice in Summer/Autumn which is the key I think. The late build up of ice leads to a later forming and stronger vortex which can fight off anything thrown at it. We had off the scale mountain torques which didn't phase it one bit.

Some point to the strong Indian Ocean Dipole being a factor, but i'm not convinced. The dipole has been gone now for nearly a month and the zonality is getting worse.

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There is something seriously wrong with the UK's winter weather patterns given how the winters of 2019-20 and 2018-19 have panned out with the background signals being more favourable than they were in say 2013-14 (solar max, westerly QBO) and 2015-16 (strong El Nino, westerly QBO) and possibly 2016-17 (still a poorer solar signal and westerly QBO) for colder UK winter weather.  We are now in lower solar activity than in 2017-18, albeit the QBO was more easterly that winter than this one.

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28 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's the lack of sea ice in Summer/Autumn which is the key I think. The late build up of ice leads to a later forming and stronger vortex which can fight off anything thrown at it. We had off the scale mountain torques which didn't phase it one bit.

Some point to the strong Indian Ocean Dipole being a factor, but i'm not convinced. The dipole has been gone now for nearly a month and the zonality is getting worse.

I don't think the IOD is the only factor at play - but at that strength it certainly tipped the odds well against us for cold weather this winter. Once that PV spins up into a tight ball, it can be hard to break the majority of the time. Looks like this year was one of those.

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38 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

 

The winters we have had since 2012-13, and especially this one and the one in 2018-19, combined with being close to solar minimum with no strong El Nino or La Nina, and both still ending up ridiculously above average, means that something has now seriously gone wrong with the winter weather patterns in our part of the world, and is strong evidence for a post 2013 super warm era in UK winter weather, and is good evidence to suggest that a winter like 2017-18 may be regarded as "severe" in this post 2013 era, and that it is no longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of wintry weather to develop in the UK, which suggests that 2017-18 is the new modern version of 2009-10, and something close to 2017-18 is the new baseline for cold in the UK.

Where have i heard that before?

Well you said something similiar back in 2008

"Although we have not had a proper cold winter since 1995-96, we did actually get a below average mid-Dec to mid-March period in 2000-01 and again in 2005-06, although neither of these winters were particularly cold. I have mentioned a number of times it is now getting to the stage where a winter like 2000-01 or 2005-06 may be regarded as "cold" or even "severe" in the "christmas pudding", and the modern version of 1995-96 or 1985, 1986 or 1987, and getting anything like 1995-96 or even anything better than 2000-01 or 2005-06 may be the equivalent of a one off extreme like 1947/63/79 in the christmas pudding"

And from your post of today.

"....no longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of wintry weather to develop in the UK, which suggests that 2017-18 is the new modern version of 2009-10"

With all due respect, does this not sound absurd to you?

The difference between those 2 periods of time is only 8 years.....8 years..we are not talking about 80 years. Its ridiculous to make such comments based on such a tiny timeframe and I point out we had the coldest December and Marches for decades in that period between those seasons. And that December of 2010 followed right after that winter of 2009-10 which followed the winter of  2008-09. 

I wonder how many though back in March 2009 that the winter 2008-09 would be the coldest for a while?

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Looking back to 2008, winter 2007-08 was close to a solar minimum, and in fact had an easterly QBO (more so than this winter), so I would have thought that winter had a chance of being cold, but it turned out quite the opposite, with the only colder periods that winter coming from mid latitude blocks.  The only thing that I could find an answer as to what went wrong in the 2007-08 winter was that it had a strong La Nina (strong ENSO anomalies either way are generally not conducive to cold in the UK). 

On top of that, prior to 2008 we had winter 2005-06 that was close to average, and prior to that we had some winters that, although overall were milder than average, were not without their colder moments, like 2004-05 was, and I believe 2003-04 and 2002-03 were similar.

To make the seven winters since 2012-13 look more rubbish, we have not even had one of the milder than average ones still not without their moments (albeit 2014-15 which was just near or a touch above average).  The UK's last winter that was milder than average overall (close to 5*C CET) but not without its colder moments, I would say was 2011-12.

After 2008 we did have some cold spells in 2008-09, the cold winter of 2009-10, the severe spell in Dec 2010, then another good winter for cold spells in 2012-13.  Since then only winter 2017-18 was close to average, most of the rest have been very mild with little in the way of cold outbreaks in them, which is a very poor showing indeed in the seven winters since 2012-13, and on top of that, to get two ridiculously above average winters (2018-19 and 2019-20) close to solar minimum without a strong ENSO anomaly and not too westerly QBOs just puts into perspective that things are getting more desperate than they were this time in 2008.  Background signals should at least have suggested that either this winter or the one last year, should at least have had a reasonable chance of delivering more in the way of cold spells than in any winter since 2012-13, but they have both turned out quite the opposite. 

This winter and the one last year certainly bring serious concerns as to why solar minimum winters without strong ENSO anomalies have still delivered next to nothing, which certainly should make anyone think that it is no longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of cold weather to develop in the UK, and certainly should make anyone believe that a winter like 2017-18 may be regarded as "severe" in the post 2013 era, and the modern version of 2009-10.  More to the point, after all, most winters of the last 32 years have been milder than what was the long term average before then, with only 1990-91, 1995-96, 2008-09, 2009-10, Dec 2010 and winter 2012-13 standing out as bringing colder winters or severe spells in the last 32 years, so this is all a very poor showing ever since 1988, and with two awful winters in 2018-19 and 2019-20 close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly clearly suggests how desperate it is, and that it is very likely that none of the above colder winters or spells mentioned in the last 32 years are ever possible again.  

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Perhaps next winter will be a good tester. Just coming out on the other side of solar minimum and a more established easterly QBO.

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5 minutes ago, sundog said:

Perhaps next winter will be a good tester. Just coming out on the other side of solar minimum and a more established easterly QBO.

Given the way that 2018-19 and 2019-20 have turned out and how devoid of cold weather they have been, it makes me less optimistic about next winter.  Also 2014-15 had a well established strong easterly QBO but it was still near or a touch above average.  Surely next winter cannot be as poor as these last two, but given how rubbish these two winters on the trot have been close to solar minimum, it could well struggle to be even as cold as 2017-18 was.

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1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Given the way that 2018-19 and 2019-20 have turned out and how devoid of cold weather they have been, it makes me less optimistic about next winter.  Surely it cannot be as poor as these last two, but given how rubbish these two winters on the trot have been close to solar minimum, it could well struggle to be even as cold as 2017-18 was.

I admit I'm less optimistic myself considering how poor  this and last winter have been . But at the same time I wouldn't be surprised if we do get a very cold winter sometime in the next few yrs.

The deep minimum of around 1911-14 had poor winters too ( though I presume not as mild ) then a few yrs later the winter of 1916/17 struck, I wonder was there an extra lag effect  for whatever reason.

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If it is the case that a prolonged cold spell in winter is no longer possible, then why did we get December 2010 as the coldest December in more than 100 years clearly looking at it from the perspective of that you could easily say that December 2010 or the coldest December for over 100 years would no longer be possible before 2008.  Looking at it from a scientific perspective although I have no doubt that we have a warming climate, December 2010 was still less than a decade ago which is nothing in climatological terms, just a drop in the ocean - we are talking less than a decade ago never mind 1947/63/78 etc.  So the question I would like to ask is not why this winter was mild, but why 2010 actually happened at all within this context.  And we had significant cold in February/March 2018 only 2 years, yes 2 years ago.  So even though the statistics show a warming climate, they also show IMO that it will be a long time before you can say that winter cold spells and cold and snow in UK winters are a thing of the past and anyone who suggests otherwise does not understand basic statistics and science IMO unless they can back this up with a theory to why the rate of change in our climate has accelerated rapidly over the last decade.  You would expect the rate of warming to be more uniform, and in addition to this within this decade other parts of the world have had severe cold spells relative to average such as USA 2013-14 yes they have more of a continental climate but that was even more recently than 2010.   So cold spells on our planet have certainly not gone away, it is just we have not had the right synoptic pressure patterns.  I also want to ask this question of you too - Considering our warming climate if we had the same synoptic pattern as 1962-63 today, would it be as cold and snow as then?

 

Regards,

 

Luke

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2 hours ago, Lukemcd said:

If it is the case that a prolonged cold spell in winter is no longer possible, then why did we get December 2010 as the coldest December in more than 100 years clearly looking at it from the perspective of that you could easily say that December 2010 or the coldest December for over 100 years would no longer be possible before 2008.  Looking at it from a scientific perspective although I have no doubt that we have a warming climate, December 2010 was still less than a decade ago which is nothing in climatological terms, just a drop in the ocean - we are talking less than a decade ago never mind 1947/63/78 etc.  So the question I would like to ask is not why this winter was mild, but why 2010 actually happened at all within this context.  And we had significant cold in February/March 2018 only 2 years, yes 2 years ago.  So even though the statistics show a warming climate, they also show IMO that it will be a long time before you can say that winter cold spells and cold and snow in UK winters are a thing of the past and anyone who suggests otherwise does not understand basic statistics and science IMO unless they can back this up with a theory to why the rate of change in our climate has accelerated rapidly over the last decade.  You would expect the rate of warming to be more uniform, and in addition to this within this decade other parts of the world have had severe cold spells relative to average such as USA 2013-14 yes they have more of a continental climate but that was even more recently than 2010.   So cold spells on our planet have certainly not gone away, it is just we have not had the right synoptic pressure patterns.  I also want to ask this question of you too - Considering our warming climate if we had the same synoptic pattern as 1962-63 today, would it be as cold and snow as then?

 

Regards,

 

Luke

The statistics show that a proper cold winter could occur in 2009-10, a decade ago, on the back of a fairly cold one the year before.  Then following on from that we had the severe cold in Dec 2010, then two years later we had a number of cold spells in 2012-13 and then the very cold March that year.  That said the seven winters since then make an exceptionally grim showing with only 2017-18 that was close to the average overall and most of the others being well above average with little in the way of cold snaps in them let alone cold spells, and 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been a absolute disaster in what they have served up, given that we are close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly, so these last two winters that we have had close to solar minimum look a sign that it is no longer realistically possible for us to see another 2010 / 2013 etc.  If 2018-19 and 2019-20 had have happened when the background signals were poorer, such as near solar maximum, combined with a westerly QBO, and a strong ENSO anomaly then the future situation of UK winters would have appeared less worrying, but the fact that close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly has produced winters as devoid of cold weather as 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been, then it just shows that something is badly wrong and has changed significantly since 2013.

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11 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The statistics show that a proper cold winter could occur in 2009-10, a decade ago, on the back of a fairly cold one the year before.  Then following on from that we had the severe cold in Dec 2010, then two years later we had a number of cold spells in 2012-13 and then the very cold March that year.  That said the seven winters since then make an exceptionally grim showing with only 2017-18 that was close to the average overall and most of the others being well above average with little in the way of cold snaps in them let alone cold spells, and 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been a absolute disaster in what they have served up, given that we are close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly, so these last two winters that we have had close to solar minimum look a sign that it is no longer realistically possible for us to see another 2010 / 2013 etc.

Not sure if you are being serious here, if you are then your theory is fatally flawed on a time scale for starters.

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54 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The statistics show that a proper cold winter could occur in 2009-10, a decade ago, on the back of a fairly cold one the year before.  Then following on from that we had the severe cold in Dec 2010, then two years later we had a number of cold spells in 2012-13 and then the very cold March that year.  That said the seven winters since then make an exceptionally grim showing with only 2017-18 that was close to the average overall and most of the others being well above average with little in the way of cold snaps in them let alone cold spells, and 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been a absolute disaster in what they have served up, given that we are close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly, so these last two winters that we have had close to solar minimum look a sign that it is no longer realistically possible for us to see another 2010 / 2013 etc.  If 2018-19 and 2019-20 had have happened when the background signals were poorer, such as near solar maximum, combined with a westerly QBO, and a strong ENSO anomaly then the future situation of UK winters would have appeared less worrying, but the fact that close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly has produced winters as devoid of cold weather as 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been, then it just shows that something is badly wrong and has changed significantly since 2013.

Yes but this winter has mainly been a descending westerly QBO or a transitional period so it is not possible to say that this winter was a pure negative QBO so we might have to wait until next winter to see the effect of that also I follow Gavs Weather Videos and when he was doing his winter forecast he forecast a slightly below average winter but he said he could not rule out a very mild winter due to the situation with the sea surface temperatures not being favourable he mentioned both the Pacific and the Atlantic explaining that a tripole pattern is normally favourable for a cold winter in NW Europe but he said at the beginning of December we have the opposite of a tripole in the Atlantic so we cannot rule out the possibility of the SSTs and the IOD causing issues for this winter.  before 2008/09 it was said on these forums by a guy by the name of Ian Brown with his MW theory that we could not experience a winter like 1995/96 ever again but we all know that it was disproven by 2009/10 which was colder than 1995/96 and December 2010.  Experiencing those events in my recent adult lifetime, never mind my whole life time makes it difficult to believe that we will not see similar events again in our lifetimes even with reduced frequency - as explained we had 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13 and 2018 not to forget March 2013 too which was the coldest March that many of us have experienced - I cannot believe that the ability to experience significant cold spells can be turned off like a switch especially in the context of a complex, chaotic system like weather and climate - I did Physics at University and I know that Meteorology involves a lot of physics, but unlike many branches of physics like particle physics and classical mechanics, weather and climate is particularly chaotic in other branches of physics I believe that Quantum Mechanics (uncertainty principle) and radioactive decay of the nucleus with random decay will be more approximate to this situation as I said I do not deny that global warming is happening I can't see how the possibility of significant cold events turn off like a switch metrology is not a black and white science.

 

Luke  

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14 hours ago, Downburst said:

What I’m looking for in the models at present is some letup in the current pattern for those that have, or will have had a terrible time with flooding. For the rest of us, some dry days and some sign of spring. Here’s the moan.... the incessant hunt for snow in the model thread is very boring. A few terrible bores in there. Isn’t there more to offer in meteorology then snow? I know they get likes and all. But it’s almost verging on unhealthy in my view.

I always wonder what those people actually do when it does snow.

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1 hour ago, ManiaMuse said:

I always wonder what those people actually do when it does snow.

It is often the case when the UK does get snow, that some parts of the country do considerably better than others and while some part of the country may see a good snowfall, only 100-200 miles away may see nothing.  Most of the snow in the UK does fall and accumulate on higher ground, and with elevation snow events are always more impressive.  It is actually a very rare event for a large part of our country and especially at low levels to see snow at the same time.

Another winter weather type that appears to have disappeared from low levels in recent winters is widespread fog.  I mean a true winter fog, when the whole air and atmosphere is white.  Snow is a white stuff that falls and covers the ground and surfaces, whereas fog is the white stuff that fills the air and atmosphere away from the ground and surfaces.  Fog has certainly been a rare commodity in most recent winters.

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

 

12_222_preciptype.png

 

Lol, for a laugh, guess who lives almost within that Nelson's Column shaped snow shield in the south?!  Me!  That would be just typical!  ?  Nice to see some eye candy charts anyway.

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8 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It is often the case when the UK does get snow, that some parts of the country do considerably better than others and while some part of the country may see a good snowfall, only 100-200 miles away may see nothing.  Most of the snow in the UK does fall and accumulate on higher ground, and with elevation snow events are always more impressive.  It is actually a very rare event for a large part of our country and especially at low levels to see snow at the same time.

Another winter weather type that appears to have disappeared from low levels in recent winters is widespread fog.  I mean a true winter fog, when the whole air and atmosphere is white.  Snow is a white stuff that falls and covers the ground and surfaces, whereas fog is the white stuff that fills the air and atmosphere away from the ground and surfaces.  Fog has certainly been a rare commodity in most recent winters.

It can be a far less distance than that, even 15-20 miles can be the difference between a good snowfall and nothing, especially during marginal set ups.  I agree it is rare to see country wide snow events, though.  I think winter 2009/10 and December 2010 were the last occasions this occurred.   Reference to fog, I remember during the 80's winters, fog could be so thick you literally couldn't see to the other side of the road!  Must be 20 years or more since I have seen such an event.

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