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15 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

So as you rightly point out only one of those winters was close to average; the other four were all in the milder category, and of particular note the February of the 1913-14 winter was extremely mild.  Of particular interest does anyone have any previous stats on previous winters that had a strong Indian Ocean Dipole?  It would be of particular interest to see how other winters in the UK turned out that had a strong IOD to make a comparison with this one, to see if such a pattern is generally not conducive to cold in the UK.  With only this one to go on and not knowing what any previous winters were like during a strong IOD it is impossible to know how this winter compares.  

It now seems as though a strong ocean temperature anomaly in any of the oceans like ENSO or IOD ruins the chances of favourable patterns developing to get cold air to the UK.  Something also obviously went wrong in 2013-14 to result in a rubbish winter for the UK but does anyone know what did?

With a closer to average winter in 2017-18 and a fairly cold February that year, and the best winter since 2012-13, hopes were raised that the UK was starting to get some better winters again after a pretty poor mid 2010s period, but this winter, and the one in 2018-19, have reversed the UK into very poor winters again from a cold perspective, and makes one question if the 2017-18 winter is the modern version of 2009-10 or even 2012-13, and that it is no longer possible for a prolonged spell of severe wintry weather to develop again, considering that the poor winter this year and the one a year ago in 2018-19 have brought so little, and we are close to solar minimum with no strong ENSO anomaly.

Perhaps it's time to question the validity of some of these 'correlations'...In particular, the one with sunspots? 

Given that the last 120 years have seen so few severe winters, and even fewer 'deep solar minima', one has to wonder whether said correlation is anything more than a statistical quirk -- an artefact??

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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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20 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

So as you rightly point out only one of those winters was close to average; the other four were all in the milder category, and of particular note the February of the 1913-14 winter was extremely mild.  Of particular interest does anyone have any previous stats on previous winters that had a strong Indian Ocean Dipole?  It would be of particular interest to see how other winters in the UK turned out that had a strong IOD to make a comparison with this one, to see if such a pattern is generally not conducive to cold in the UK.  With only this one to go on and not knowing what any previous winters were like during a strong IOD it is impossible to know how this winter compares.  

It now seems as though a strong ocean temperature anomaly in any of the oceans like ENSO or IOD ruins the chances of favourable patterns developing to get cold air to the UK.  Something also obviously went wrong in 2013-14 to result in a rubbish winter for the UK but does anyone know what did?

With a closer to average winter in 2017-18 and a fairly cold February that year, and the best winter since 2012-13, hopes were raised that the UK was starting to get some better winters again after a pretty poor mid 2010s period, but this winter, and the one in 2018-19, have reversed the UK into very poor winters again from a cold perspective, and makes one question if the 2017-18 winter is the modern version of 2009-10 or even 2012-13, and that it is no longer possible for a prolonged spell of severe wintry weather to develop again, considering that the poor winter this year and the one a year ago in 2018-19 have brought so little, and we are close to solar minimum with no strong ENSO anomaly.

I don't think it's impossible for us to get a cold winter again....it's probably that they will become fewer and further between - which is what we've seen in the last 20-30 years anyway.

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5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I don't think it's impossible for us to get a cold winter again....it's probably that they will become fewer and further between - which is what we've seen in the last 20-30 years anyway.

Well we have not had a below average winter since 2012-13, and in the seven winters since then, only 2017-18 was close to average, and most of the others being well above average, which is a very poor showing, so something is clearly wrong to stop cold weather getting to the UK, and makes it very worrying as to when the next good winter for cold will be if it can ever happen again.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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For this current meteorological winter, the UK has had snow on the following days: December 28 out of 31, January 26 out of 31 and so far for February, 10 out of 12 days. Those days where it didn't snow in the UK, 4 were of rain days and the others were where a high pressure sat over the country so no precipitation recorded. Cold weather being stopped from getting to the UK? 

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32 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well we have not had a below average winter since 2012-13, and in the seven winters since then, only 2017-18 was close to average, and most of the others being well above average, which is a very poor showing, so something is clearly wrong to stop cold weather getting to the UK, and makes it very worrying as to when the next good winter for cold will be if it can ever happen again.

Not every summer since post 2012 has been great either.

I wish people would stop playing down just how poor the summers have been in some regions, especially 2015,16, and 17. All were cloudy and cool at times, despite the hot spikes.

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29 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well we have not had a below average winter since 2012-13, and in the seven winters since then, only 2017-18 was close to average, and most of the others being well above average, which is a very poor showing, so something is clearly wrong to stop cold weather getting to the UK, and makes it very worrying as to when the next good winter for cold will be if it can ever happen again.

Yes it does seem like we have had a major shift to mild but we don't know all about how our weather is influenced.What happened in the 1730s where there were 8 winters averaging above 5 degrees in a row where for a century before and after it was more like 3 deg at best.The following thos very mild 8 winters there was 1740,arguably the coldest winter there has been recorded.

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28 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Not every summer since post 2012 has been great either.

I wish people would stop playing down just how poor the summers have been in some regions, especially 2015,16, and 17. All were cloudy and cool at times, despite the hot spikes.

Seriously they haven't been poor...okay we might have had a poorish month (June last year) or a period of cloud and some rain (some Augusts spring to mind) but here in the south east we haven't had a poor summer since 2012. You mention 'some regions' having poor summers, but you can count the south and south east out of that.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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47 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Seriously they haven't been poor...okay we might have had a poorish month (June last year) or a period of cloud and some rain (some Augusts spring to mind) but here in the south east we haven't had a poor summer since 2012. You mention 'some regions' having poor summers, but you can count the south and south east out of that.

I live in London, and remember june, parts of July and August having longer periods of dull and cloudy days.

2016, had a dud june with too much cloud, although it was thundery and humid towards the end, and we had the severe thunderstorms on the Referendum night, July had some warm to hot weather in the second half, and August was sunny and warm, which extended into September. 

2017, started off well, with a warm sunny spring, and a very warm and sunny June, after a coolish start. First half of July was sunny and warm, mid month produced some widespread thunderstorms, similar to june 2016. after this however, things went downhill into mid july, and the august was dull.

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So, like I say, those summers weren't great. 2017 seemed to have better weather throughout the year. 

That said, even in the poorest summers, we still get a warm sunny spell of weather. 1993 was terrible, but still produced some warm to hot days.

 

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For those who have lost all hope this winter, have a read of this....

snowfall_average_1981-2010_4.gif
BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

This week many places have seen the type of weather you may usually associate with winter than late April, with wintry showers observed as far south as southern counties of England. However, snow at this time...

still over 10 weeks to go before all hope needs to be given up...

beliiiiiiiieeeeeeevvvvvveee!

 

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14 minutes ago, username home said:

For those who have lost all hope this winter, have a read of this....

snowfall_average_1981-2010_4.gif
BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

This week many places have seen the type of weather you may usually associate with winter than late April, with wintry showers observed as far south as southern counties of England. However, snow at this time...

still over 10 weeks to go before all hope needs to be given up...

beliiiiiiiieeeeeeevvvvvveee!

 

Think the chances may be quite high this year as we have a very intense cold  vortex which has to break up sometime in the spring spreading a lot of cold out across the Northen Hemisphere.Here in the north of Scotland spring snow is very common sea temperatures are at their lowest N and E winds at their highest frequency from April to June and we are fairly close to the Arctic when the winds are in the north. Ice days are possible here until early April too with blowing snow as well

Easter 1968 with snow on and off for two weeks and June 1st 1975 are the most memorable for me. Another point is that with the strong spring light the colours of the clouds, sky and snow are more enhanced and there has been many a spring evening when I have watched snow showers to the NE crossing the Firth bathed in the pink light of the setting sun. Another feature of spring snow is that it  seems to nearly always falls at night so having a much better chance of settling. Grauple too is a feature spring falling at what would seem a very high temperature only to be followed by snow flakes as it cools the air.

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31 minutes ago, username home said:

For those who have lost all hope this winter, have a read of this....

snowfall_average_1981-2010_4.gif
BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

This week many places have seen the type of weather you may usually associate with winter than late April, with wintry showers observed as far south as southern counties of England. However, snow at this time...

still over 10 weeks to go before all hope needs to be given up...

beliiiiiiiieeeeeeevvvvvveee!

 

honestly who wants snow in late April???

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20 minutes ago, username home said:

a large majority on here i suspect....

Not me. Sure, if it does happen then fine, but it's so infrequent I'd much rather some classic April shower days or a sunny area of high pressure.

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2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

honestly who wants snow in late April???

Actually I am one .Most years go for a drive up to the hills   about five miles to the south of me in late April to get my final snow fix Quite often we have cattle out  but winter returns over a 1000feet. Again day length and strong spring light can make the hills look stunning and you always know that it will be gone very quickly. Ground usually dry at this point so it melts and dries up quickly unlike winter when it becomes a mess.

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1 hour ago, Zak M said:

The latest GFS update indicates a low pressure system tracking across the early hours of Thursday along with very heavy rain with very cold air besides it.

And when heavy rain bumps into cold air, then you get... SNOW! ❄️

The snow won't be present everywhere in the UK though. Northern England and some parts of Scotland should see some decent snow amounts on Thursday morning.

These snow amounts are likely to cause disruption on roads and railways.

If you live in tomorrow mornings snow alley, stay safe! ❄️

 

And for Us once again in the southeast don't tell me....  Nothing but cold rain? So far I've not seen ONE single flake of snow all "winter" 

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3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

honestly who wants snow in late April???

Not me, too much damage to fruit and veg and by then, there are other, more interesting weather types that could be occurring.

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8 hours ago, MP-R said:

Can’t think of many Februaries that fit that description...

It’s the driest month of the year on average here, only 37mm for the 1981-2010 period.

As for snow in April - we had about 2cm on the 29th of April 2016. Only two days away from being a rare May snowfall. All melted well before noon though obviously.

Edited by cheese
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6 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well we have not had a below average winter since 2012-13, and in the seven winters since then, only 2017-18 was close to average, and most of the others being well above average, which is a very poor showing, so something is clearly wrong to stop cold weather getting to the UK, and makes it very worrying as to when the next good winter for cold will be if it can ever happen again.

The winter of 2015 was also average overall, just much less amplified in its CET extremes than the winter of 2018. 

...

Only the summer of 2015 can really be considered poor since 2012 (people allow the heatwave to cloud their judgement i think), i tend to think that the summer of 2017 was ideal for me. Heat in May/June when its relatively dry rather than humid (cooler continent and oceans than late summer may be the reason?) before it saw a 2010 style collapse in the second half (nice, cool and wet to end the summer and enter Autumn).

....

On your earlier point about the winters of 2019 and 2020 signalling problems actually bar the mild December the winter of 2019 fit the top 20 spotless years pattern well with 40% of top 20 winters seeing Jan CET's in the 3.5-5.3C range (CET was 4.0C) and a whopping 60% of those winters seeing a Feb CET of 5.4C or above. Most of us really missed that solar signal but it's there (though they tend to start cold). 

This winter is the anomaly with 2019 being the fourth most spotless year on record. Top 10 winters heavily favour a December of 3.6C or below (50%), a January of 5.3C or below (100% - Jan 20 sets a new record here) and a Feb of 5.3C or below (80%).    

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26 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The ECM day 10 chart is an absolute horror show....massive PV and low arctic heights all over. Strong +AO on display again. Wave bye bye to February.

Didn’t even say hello to February.....

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