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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Morning all Yesterday was one of my favourite Meteorological Winter days of all time - no snowfall but -4c to start the day with a lovely sunrise, frost stayed on the ground at sea level all day,

One of the cold persuasion waiting for snow

You could apply that to gale lovers, why would you want a potentially destructive storm causing death, damage, disruption? You could apply that to thunderstorm lovers, why would you want a severe

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16 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

Wow, FOUR exclamation marks, Shaky!!  You must be excited!!  (Sorry, back to the models!)

I am dude!!!especially after the rubbish we have endured all winter!!i just think the north west is going to get pasted if the charts remain how they are right now!!northwestsnow has a point though i have seen just sleet with 850s of -7 but i guess other ingredients have to come together aswell!!

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It is like someone flicked a switch as Winter started. ?

Purely from a lover of cold/snow weather you just have to laugh about this Winter! 

Let’s go back to October 2019...UK mean temperature was 0.5C below average. (1981-2010 long-term average)

Great Autumn month IMBY with above average sunshine and below average rainfall.

C5021FFA-F4A2-41F5-90D1-615ECB100D33.thumb.gif.4d7fc2802dcaed9984294aca0c59a115.gif1DE598B0-0516-40C2-B6F2-CBB81CCD77AA.thumb.gif.cb1d7f53d30552abde32fa90277bd84d.gif76CA0618-B6CE-4473-801D-4AB811200725.thumb.gif.629033ed67d8c7c5b65bb117f7662c1f.gif
 

The month comes to an end and I’m starting to think...Winter could be great this year! ?

Then November 2019 comes and goes...UK mean temperature 0.9 below average. (1981-2010 long-term average)

Another great Autumn month IMBY with above average sunshine and below average rainfall once again plus it was a very wintry feeling month.

82166A63-BC96-4810-A039-ED4A49400FB0.thumb.gif.02ef477c0a0c7678706d4e34091921c9.gifA9F935FF-2F65-4C27-B0AE-6FCE106BA39A.thumb.gif.f5e768e3deace221a8f457201e0b94f1.gif8DE4144B-854D-496F-AA03-03AD4720FA07.thumb.gif.945e95581c77e33957fb33abc5d7e0d7.gif
 

I am now thinking...here we go...December could be a great Winter month with spells of cold/snow at some stage! ?

Then it all went down the toilet and I learned once again that a cold Autumn means diddly squat with regards to a cold early Winter! (Cold Winter in general)

December 2019

5A3952F6-B04E-4CAA-A413-DDF05C055A0B.thumb.gif.3c7b3f830498fe81bec391266f6acad1.gif544EB79F-72A3-4D09-997B-1C820DEFE906.thumb.gif.771df0d7f92356e147cda96d24086605.gif2CBCACDF-35EC-47C7-8602-062F819E4FA0.thumb.gif.3ad0f27b9226030ccea45ce81742b0d9.gif
 

January 2020

69CC9573-0F1A-4376-A049-A8E6825018A3.thumb.gif.4450caffc79027bd980c9aaaa9ec05e0.gif981B149B-2E59-486A-9257-7B9E3244334B.thumb.gif.a984b806390eb8b1b365cff554f57e41.gif9471A465-82E2-47DB-8DD0-0AB7FD9F684A.thumb.gif.7f70bac1a9d9d86d95fcaae69b07ece4.gif
 

February TBC (Another above average month no doubt)

Go away already Winter 2019/20! ?

I sincerely hope we get a warm/sunny Spring and a hot/sunny/convective Summer! That would soften the blow of this abysmal Winter.

Have a good day everyone! 

Edited by Mr Frost
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5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

It is like someone flicked a switch as Winter started. 
 

February TBC (Another above average month no doubt)

Go away already Winter 2019/20! ?

I sincerely hope we get a warm/sunny Spring and a hot/sunny/convective Summer! That would soften the blow of this abysmal Winter.

Have a good day everyone! 

I think this will become more common due to the late forming Polar Vortex due to increased Arctic ice loss. Our best chance of proper cold will be at the end of Autumn and start of Spring with the Winter months essentially a second Autumn.

Edited by mountain shadow
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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I think this will become more common due to the late forming Polar Vortex due to increased Arctic ice loss. Our best chance of proper cold will be at the end of Autumn and start of Spring with the Winter months essentially a second Autumn.

And this is something I’ll never understand - why the PV should get stronger as arctic ice decreases. I’m still at a loss as to why the the PV loves Greenland so much.

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17 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Summer would appear to be a bit early this year in southern Spain

EP9RnAZXsAMAvJ-.thumb.png.91edc69e63cbfb9ac1c950c79064c802.png

Amazing! It is only a week or so ago it was being hit by a storm, heavy rain, cold temps, snow inland. The heat is building early to the South, although the coming week looks a bit more 'normal' down there.

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12 minutes ago, MP-R said:

And this is something I’ll never understand - why the PV should get stronger as arctic ice decreases. I’m still at a loss as to why the the PV loves Greenland so much.

With regards your first point about a stronger PV even though arctic ice has decreased, could it be that's it is stronger but within a smaller area, in other words the polar vortex is impacting less of the Northern hemisphere which is born out by record Winter temperatures across many areas of the mid to higher latitudes.

For the second part about Greenland being a natural home to the PV, that may be because Greenland sits to the East of a large continent which turns very cold from early Winter and with a West to East jetstream there is a tendency to see why the PV pools in that area.

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52 minutes ago, shaky said:

I am dude!!!especially after the rubbish we have endured all winter!!i just think the north west is going to get pasted if the charts remain how they are right now!!northwestsnow has a point though i have seen just sleet with 850s of -7 but i guess other ingredients have to come together aswell!!

It's been the worst period of model watching since I joined six or seven years ago.  I've seen nothing to even make me hint to friends and work colleagues that there's anything exciting around the corner.  It really comes to something when I'm getting excited about a bit of wind!

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8 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

It's been the worst period of model watching since I joined six or seven years ago.  I've seen nothing to even make me hint to friends and work colleagues that there's anything exciting around the corner.  It really comes to something when I'm getting excited about a bit of wind!

Precisely!!defo up there as one of the worst winters ever if not the worst!!!not seen a boring winter like this since the 90s and even back then we would get a dusting at the very least?if february is snowless here too then i will officialy say its the worst winter ever that ive witnessed!!

Edited by shaky
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7 minutes ago, Dj fart said:

It's been the worst period of model watching since I joined six or seven years ago.  I've seen nothing to even make me hint to friends and work colleagues that there's anything exciting around the corner.  It really comes to something when I'm getting excited about a bit of wind!

Depends if you are a coldy (which I am) but it had been fascinating in many ways due to the very different overall pattern and overriding of many teleconnections. As for next week...possibly a bit more than "a bit of wind"

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Just checking. If there is a ukmo red alert for high winds are the schools forced to close or is it up to individual ones to decide?
Asking because we in Slovakia have a red wind warning today in many regions and few hours ago wind blew down a metal bus stop that killed a 4 year old child with another one being in critical condition. Thnx

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1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

It is like someone flicked a switch as Winter started. ?

Purely from a lover of cold/snow weather you just have to laugh about this Winter! 

Let’s go back to October 2019...UK mean temperature was 0.5C below average. (1981-2010 long-term average)

Great Autumn month IMBY with above average sunshine and below average rainfall.
 

The month comes to an end and I’m starting to think...Winter could be great this year! ?

Then November 2019 comes and goes...UK mean temperature 0.9 below average. (1981-2010 long-term average)

Another great Autumn month IMBY with above average sunshine and below average rainfall once again plus it was a very wintry feeling month.
 

I am now thinking...here we go...December could be a great Winter month with spells of cold/snow at some stage! ?

Then it all went down the toilet and I learned once again that a cold Autumn means diddly squat with regards to a cold early Winter! (Cold Winter in general)

December 2019
 

 

Funny how things change with location.

October/November 2019 here were the two worst months I've ever recorded - constant heavy or even torrential rain all of the two months with severe flooding and our wettest autumn on record. Add the cold to all that constant rain and it was thoroughly miserable. December/January have been much better here, drier than average and much sunnier than November which recorded a paltry 29 hrs at the local weather station in Sheffield.

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13 minutes ago, jules216 said:

Just checking. If there is a ukmo red alert for high winds are the schools forced to close or is it up to individual ones to decide?
Asking because we in Slovakia have a red wind warning today in many regions and few hours ago wind blew down a metal bus stop that killed a 4 year old child with another one being in critical condition. Thnx

How sad ☹️ Some very strong winds in Central Europe since yesterday, glad I missed them. The UKMO gives out  weather warnings, I think the government and local authorities are involved when things are very severe. 

Edited by stainesbloke
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Lovely sunny day here again, but the old codgers round the corner from mine that I chat to sometimes were in their front gardens and when I mentioned that spring has arrived early and another year without a winter, they were like no way, this was always going to be a late one, you wait until the end of February. I'm like, do they really know something I don't...did they see it in the good old tea leaves I wonder??

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13 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

Funny how things change with location.

October/November 2019 here were the two worst months I've ever recorded - constant heavy or even torrential rain all of the two months with severe flooding and our wettest autumn on record. Add the cold to all that constant rain and it was thoroughly miserable. December/January have been much better here, drier than average and much sunnier than November which recorded a paltry 29 hrs at the local weather station in Sheffield.

Indeed! (I am on the West coast of Scotland)

We had a few settling snowfalls on the higher hills/mountains (400 meters) here in both months. (One such occasion in the last week of October)

October rainfall amount and sunshine duration.

4B307227-3FEE-420D-8615-F98B682DAA89.thumb.gif.4e8275767076191609e4fa1c7c15e5ee.gifFB697B29-4B13-49B5-91B4-935D6722BF1E.thumb.gif.a159d86247a58015de26c4a51244da09.gif

November rainfall amount and sunshine duration.

37C00152-1376-459D-9758-545A3EEA560A.thumb.gif.a5604e9415e886e4c2fcbab645d81fee.gifE80D471F-CA21-46DF-86B0-D853DABD8DB6.thumb.gif.13d4e3376360177fd0420fde534ee71e.gif
 

Only a five hour drive away from Sheffield and the total opposite regarding the stats for the above months.

I guess that is one of the interesting things about the UK climate - big regional differences with regards to weather in all seasons. 

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22 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

How sad ☹️ Some very strong winds in Central Europe since yesterday, glad I missed them. The UKMO gives out  weather warnings, I think the government and local authorities are involved when things are very severe. 

I am under red warning today, actually the red warning is for mountains with winds up to 160kmh, amber is for low levels with winds between 85 and 110km forecast. It is the second time in few months where wind caused casualty. Few months ago tree fell and killed a schoolboy. 

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Makes you wonder how we ever got severe cold spells in the past during the winter months,when you look at this never ending low pressure to the North and high pressure to the South of the U.K. ,which has ruined countless winters the past few decades. over not just the U.K. but Europe too.

That  temperature  anomaly’ for Scandinavia is ridiculous.

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2 hours ago, jules216 said:

I am under red warning today, actually the red warning is for mountains with winds up to 160kmh, amber is for low levels with winds between 85 and 110km forecast. It is the second time in few months where wind caused casualty. Few months ago tree fell and killed a schoolboy. 

I hope that you and your family are safe? The frequency of destructive winds in C Europe is definitely increasing. My family in Brno have noticed them getting worse. Looks like more storms next week....Dávaj na seba pozor!

Edited by stainesbloke
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Such a westerly winter this season. Most boring I think I’ve ever seen. Not even one snow day with a dusting of just 1cm or even a flake of snow seen. Terrible. Polar vortex is just too strong and these ridiculous southwesterlies keep coming in. was this even winter???? ?? I think the last time I had a completely snowless winter here in the southeast was 2013-14 but that was still an exciting one with all the major storms throughout all the winter months but this winter has barely had any of that. Oh well, time to start hunting for thunderstorms in a couple of months, although last year I had seriously bad luck with those as well with major storm events curving around London as if there were a forcefield. Seems to me the more I wish for certain types of weather they become more and more rare. I guess I’ll just take every day as it comes ???

Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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Why do certain models cough* gfs *cough show completely unrealistic weather in fi so regularly? All models do it to a certain extent but the gfs often shows things that just aren't going to happen around day 10.Surely the models should all be weighted towards the norm so if they're struggling to get a handle on what's going on they always edge towards the average conditions for that time of year.Nationwide blizzards or hurricane force winds are not the norm...

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9 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Unseasonably warm winter in Japan as well

 

Very sad indeed, what with Europe recording its warmest January on record, too.  It's just relentless......

Edited by Don
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