Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Thundery wintry showers]

1 hour ago, Summer of 95 said:

Wet Marches always seem to have quite a bit of it as snow: 1995, 2001, 2018

I can't remember a March that was constantly mild and wet with no snow in the way several Jans and Febs have been; the worst March can do is be mild and dull but dry (1997, 2000). 

A March that starts like 2018 and finishes like 2012 will do me this year; it would have everything that's been lacking this winter.

They're certainly more rare, as the jet stream on average tends to slow down as we head into spring.  Looking back through the archives, March 1991 might have managed it, and also Marches 1981, 1992 and 1994 in the south although all three months had some snowfalls in the north.  March 1988 was also mostly mild and wet in the south, but it did start off with wintry showers.  Recent examples of Marches with extended mild wet spells (e.g. 2017, 2019) have also seen some dry sunny spells.

The models do seem to be suggesting a transition from mild zonality to cold zonality into early March, rather like what happened in 1995, but there is the caveat that the models have suggested cold zonality on several occasions this winter and it hasn't come to much.  While the current forecast spell is coming into T+96, suggesting that it will be more potent than what we've had so far, it could turn out to be short-lived.

Edited February 23, 2020 by Thundery wintry showers

[Met.]

Looking at the rainfall predictions for the next few days, the wettest February on record is a dead certainty here now. That makes three rainfall records gone in the last four months: November 2019, wettest on record; 7th November 2019, 80mm falling in one day, date record; February 2020, wettest on record. Seems to be a lot of "record" events happening recently.

[Summer Sun]

It's the warmest day of the year so far with 16.0C in East Malling, Kent.

[snowray]

I know that it can snow in March, April and even May in Scotland, its just that I just prefer to see wintry weather in a winter month, ie Dec-Feb when days are short and the sun does not melt everything to a slush by lunchtime or mid morning usually around here anyway. 

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

It's the warmest day of the year so far with 16.0C in East Malling, Kent.

Feels very mild today I must say, but that wind, it's relentless...

[summer blizzard]

On 21/02/2020 at 12:31, North-Easterly Blast said:

It is now looking very likely that winter 2019-20 will end with a similar overall CET to winter 2013-14.  Now that winter was close to solar maximum and the QBO was very much in a westerly phase, so I think that background signals were very much not in a cold favour for the UK that winter, and yet this year we end up with a winter almost or just as poor as that one despite the fact that we are near solar minimum.  Now there is something seriously wrong with the weather patterns in the UK when close to solar minimum we end up with a winter as rubbish as the one we have had.  Granted the easterly QBO did not start developing until last month so possibly the QBO was not in as good a position for cold weather in the UK as it was in 2017-18, but I thought being close to solar minimum would have helped with a reasonable chance of cold outbreaks, but this winter has brought next to nothing.  

Given the way that this winter has turned out despite not so poor background signals, then something must have seriously changed since 2012-13 moving the UK into a "SUPER warm era" rather than the "warm era" that began in 1988.  Even in 2014-15 an exceptionally easterly QBO could only deliver a winter that was near or a touch above average, when this background signal would have suggested that winter ought to have been colder when it wasn't. 

The winters we have had since 2012-13, and especially this one and the one in 2018-19, combined with being close to solar minimum with no strong El Nino or La Nina, and both still ending up ridiculously above average, means that something has now seriously gone wrong with the winter weather patterns in our part of the world, and is strong evidence for a post 2013 super warm era in UK winter weather, and is good evidence to suggest that a winter like 2017-18 may be regarded as "severe" in this post 2013 era, and that it is no longer realistically possible for a prolonged spell of wintry weather to develop in the UK, which suggests that 2017-18 is the new modern version of 2009-10, and something close to 2017-18 is the new baseline for cold in the UK.

I think its worth saying that in terms of solar minimum or enso or the qbo your probably ascribing too much value to one factor when the whole is probably more important. There is also some flawed thinking (from not just you) in assuming that solar minimum always means cold. For example the winter of 2019 in Jan-Feb was actually a match for top 20 spotless years which tend to have a cold December, average January, warm February (admittedly top 10 years like this winter should be cold-cold-cold statistically).

That said i thought the teleconnection point was interesting and so decided to look at the last decade (i took Jan-March) and examine the temperature to enso, qbo, solar, pdo connection to see if any winter under/over performed or acted as expected. 

For my assumptions i have assumed (based on my own reanalysis - i know some for example favour weak nino over weak nina but reanalysis is pretty clear on a AO average that weak Nina is better)...

ENSO:

Neutral-negative/weak Nina/moderate to strong Nino (excluding super nino) - Positive

neutral-positive/weak nino/moderate to strong nina - negative

QBO

<1 - Positive

>1 - Negative

PDO

<1 - Positive

> - Negative

Solar

Only 2014 was solar maximum (low grade)

Only 2019 and 2020 were minimum (top 20 and 10 respectively)

All others neutral. 

..

Jan-March 2011 - A,W,A

Jan-March 2012 - W,A,W

Jan-March 2013 - A,C,C

Jan-March 2014 - W,W,W

Jan-March 2015 - A,A,A

Jan-March 2016 - W,A,A

Jan-March 2017 - A,W,W

Jan-March 2018 - A,C,C

Jan-March 2019 - A,W,W

Jan-March 2020 - W,W,-

W=5.4/7.6>

C=3.4/5.6<

A=Between (Average)

..

So let us see what those winters had..

Winter 2011 - Moderate Nina, Neutral QBO (Westerly), Neutral Solar (Rising), Negative PDO 

Winter 2012 - weak Nina, Easterly QBO, Neutral Solar (Rising), Negative PDO

Winter 2013 - neutral-negative ENSO, Neutral QBO, Neutral Solar (Rising), Negative PDO

Winter 2014 - neutral-negative ENSO, Westerly QBO, Neutral Solar (Rising), Neutral PDO

Winter 2015 - Weak Nino, Easterly QBO, Solar Maximum (Low), Positive PDO

Winter 2016 - Super Nino, Neutral QBO (westerly), Neutral Solar (Falling), Positive PDO

Winter 2017 - Neutral ENSO, Westerly QBO, Neutral Solar (Falling), Neutral PDO (positive)

Winter 2018 - Weak Nina, Easterly QBO, Neutral Solar (Falling), Neutral PDO (negative)

Winter 2019 - Weak Nino, Neutral QBO (westerly), Solar Minimum (Top 20), Neutral PDO (negative)

...

So lets evaluate..

 

So Winter 2011 broadly had a balanced set of signals, a little negative due to the solar and qbo phase. The outcome at Av,W,Av i would call a win. 

So winter 2012 broadly had very favourable signals. At W,Av,W i would say that winter 2012 under-performed.  

So winter 2013 broadly had slightly favourable signals and at Av,C,C i would say that it matched or exceeded expectations. 

So winter 2014 broadly had slightly negative signals and at W,W,W it definitely matched or exceeded its likely outcome. 

So winter 2015 broadly had Negative signals. Av,Av,Av i would say that it over-performed. 

So winter 2016 broadly had Negative signals. At W,Av,Av i would say that it matched or slightly under-performed.

So winter 2017 broadly had slightly negative signals. At A,W,W i would say that it matched or over-performed.

So winter 2018 broadly had favourable signals. At Av,C,C i would say that it matched expectations. 

So winter 2019 broadly had No strong signal. At A,W,W i would say that it was worse than one would have expected.

Winter 2020 will likely have slightly favourable signals so definitely was worse than expected.

....

Of the 9 winters then most did go as expected in hindsight with 2012 and 2019 being worse than expected and 2015 being better than expected.   

 

 

[AderynCoch]

The horror February continues to add insult to injury. 15.7C here at 7pm, 17C at Bratislava Airport and 20.1C at Eisenstadt in Austria (about 30 miles southwest of here). The monthly mean is now above 6C and rising. 

It just never ends... 

[Mr Frost]

March 2012 and March 2013 stand out for me - one for warmth/sunshine and the other how cold it was! 

March 2012 (mean temperature, rainfall amount and sunshine duration against the 1981-2010 anomaly)

 

March temperature records broken again in Scotland

Third day of March heat records

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The record high temperature for the month of March is broken for the third day in a row.

March weather third warmest on record, says Met Office

March was third warmest on record

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Last month's enduring sunny spells meant that it was the third warmest March on record - and the hottest since 1957 - the Met Office says.

Glorious spell of weather - remember sitting out in the garden and heading to the beach numerous times. Weather was more like early Summer than early Spring! 

March 2013 (mean temperature, rainfall amount, days of ground frost and days of air frost against the 1981-2010 anomaly) 

 

UK snow: Britons struggle after storms strike

Britons tell of snowstorm ordeal

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Britons tell of their struggles to cope in the unseasonably cold weather after snow hit the UK, leaving thousands of homes without power.

March weather was second coldest on record - Met Office

March 'was second coldest on record'

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Freezing temperatures in March made it the UK's joint second coldest since records began more than 100 years ago, the Met Office says.

Insane month for cold weather! 

Would love a bit of cold/snow and warmth/sunshine this March.

Edited February 23, 2020 by Mr Frost

[Sunny76]

55 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

March 2012 and March 2013 stand out for me - one for warmth/sunshine and the other how cold it was! 

March 2012 (mean temperature, rainfall amount and sunshine duration against the 1981-2010 anomaly)

 

March temperature records broken again in Scotland

Third day of March heat records

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

The record high temperature for the month of March is broken for the third day in a row.

March weather third warmest on record, says Met Office

March was third warmest on record

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Last month's enduring sunny spells meant that it was the third warmest March on record - and the hottest since 1957 - the Met Office says.

Glorious spell of weather - remember sitting out in the garden and heading to the beach numerous times. Weather was more like early Summer than early Spring! 

March 2013 (mean temperature, rainfall amount, days of ground frost and days of air frost against the 1981-2010 anomaly) 

 

UK snow: Britons struggle after storms strike

Britons tell of snowstorm ordeal

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Britons tell of their struggles to cope in the unseasonably cold weather after snow hit the UK, leaving thousands of homes without power.

March weather was second coldest on record - Met Office

March 'was second coldest on record'

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Freezing temperatures in March made it the UK's joint second coldest since records began more than 100 years ago, the Met Office says.

Insane month for cold weather! 

Would love a bit of cold/snow and warmth/sunshine this March.

March 2012 was warm and sunny, but the summer that followed was awful and cold at times.

[Mr Frost]

23 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

March 2012 was warm and sunny, but the summer that followed was awful and cold at times.

Indeed - strange old year 2012!

Here in Scotland we had eight months below average - mean temperature against the 1981-2010 anomaly.

England had 7 below average months, Northern Ireland also 7 and Wales 6.

Met Office graph below for 2012.

June/July below average for us all and very wet for many parts down South.

June rainfall amount against the 1981/2010 anomaly.

 

July rainfall amount against the 1981-2010 anomaly.

 

August was better in the South East.

Edited February 23, 2020 by Mr Frost

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

March 2012 was warm and sunny, but the summer that followed was awful and cold at times.

June and July 2012 were both below average, though August 2012 was actually slightly above average, meaning that summer 2012 with a CET of 15.2, was a slightly cooler than average summer overall but not that cool by historical standards.  For a properly cool summer I would say it needs an overall CET below 15.0*C; summer 2011 managed this, with an overall CET of 14.8, with all months of June, July and August coming out below average that year.       

Edited February 23, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[AderynCoch]

https://wetter.orf.at/oes/extremwerte

Temperatures from Austria (left - last hour, right - last 24 hours). 20,7C today in Innsbruck.

Still 20,3C in Sopron, Hungary at 11pm.

In February. From a westerly flow.

[Don]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Lovely evolution for here > feeling some -9c continental cold & a snow event 3-4cm here.

Need to firm up on the cold first next 24-48 hours!

Good old cold rain for me on that chart! 

[Don]

1 hour ago, AderynCoch said:

https://wetter.orf.at/oes/extremwerte

Temperatures from Austria (left - last hour, right - last 24 hours). 20,7C today in Innsbruck.

Still 20,3C in Sopron, Hungary at 11pm.

In February. From a westerly flow.

Yet again, just shocking! 

[A Frayed Knot]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Good old cold rain for me on that chart! 

Snap, but will change soon, All English in here, Wales will get it though....

[tinybill]

just been looking at the radar  not good news for the flooded  areas  the radar looks nasty to say  the least!!

[Sunny76]

9 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

June and July 2012 were both below average, though August 2012 was actually slightly above average, meaning that summer 2012 with a CET of 15.2, was a slightly cooler than average summer overall but not that cool by historical standards.  For a properly cool summer I would say it needs an overall CET below 15.0*C; summer 2011 managed this, with an overall CET of 14.8, with all months of June, July and August coming out below average that year.       

It was still a poor summer though.

[Weather-history]

 

[Weather-history]

8 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

It was still a poor summer though.

It was an awful summer. Temperatures are pretty much academic if it is dull and a washout.

August 2008 had a CET of 16.2 but it was a terrible summer month. Frequent rain and little sun.

[North-Easterly Blast]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

It was an awful summer. Temperatures are pretty much academic if it is dull and a washout.

August 2008 had a CET of 16.2 but it was a terrible summer month. Frequent rain and little sun.

Another more extreme version of August 2008 was August 2004 - warm overall but a washout.

[Sky Full]

Models now indicating that Spring could start - and may continue - colder than average.  Great.  A warm Winter followed by a cold Spring.  Potentially six months of weather misery.  

We've really hit the climate jackpot in the UK.

[Azazel]

18 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Models now indicating that Spring could start - and may continue - colder than average.  Great.  A warm Winter followed by a cold Spring.  Potentially six months of weather misery.  

We've really hit the climate jackpot in the UK.

I would've put my mortgage on it.

The UK has the worst climate of anywhere in the world IMO. Endless, unrelenting autumn.

[Summer Sun]

Heavy rain rapidly turned to snow here in Darlington

[Summer Sun]

Councils across the seem to have to got caught out by the snow to lower levels some treacherous conditions on the roads this morning with many blocked due to cars and lorries getting stuck.

[hillbilly]

57 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I would've put my mortgage on it.

The UK has the worst climate of anywhere in the world IMO. Endless, unrelenting autumn.

The only consolation with the  atrocious autumn and incredible 'worse as time goes on' Winter is the fact that at least it is not summer.The last time we had any weather remotely resembling this was Winter 2015 which was followed by 3 1/2 years of relatively dry conditions and a drought,hopefully that will happen again.