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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
11 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The statistics show that a proper cold winter could occur in 2009-10, a decade ago, on the back of a fairly cold one the year before.  Then following on from that we had the severe cold in Dec 2010, then two years later we had a number of cold spells in 2012-13 and then the very cold March that year.  That said the seven winters since then make an exceptionally grim showing with only 2017-18 that was close to the average overall and most of the others being well above average with little in the way of cold snaps in them let alone cold spells, and 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been a absolute disaster in what they have served up, given that we are close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly, so these last two winters that we have had close to solar minimum look a sign that it is no longer realistically possible for us to see another 2010 / 2013 etc.

Not sure if you are being serious here, if you are then your theory is fatally flawed on a time scale for starters.

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Posted
  • Location: South Liverpool
  • Location: South Liverpool
54 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

The statistics show that a proper cold winter could occur in 2009-10, a decade ago, on the back of a fairly cold one the year before.  Then following on from that we had the severe cold in Dec 2010, then two years later we had a number of cold spells in 2012-13 and then the very cold March that year.  That said the seven winters since then make an exceptionally grim showing with only 2017-18 that was close to the average overall and most of the others being well above average with little in the way of cold snaps in them let alone cold spells, and 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been a absolute disaster in what they have served up, given that we are close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly, so these last two winters that we have had close to solar minimum look a sign that it is no longer realistically possible for us to see another 2010 / 2013 etc.  If 2018-19 and 2019-20 had have happened when the background signals were poorer, such as near solar maximum, combined with a westerly QBO, and a strong ENSO anomaly then the future situation of UK winters would have appeared less worrying, but the fact that close to solar minimum and no strong ENSO anomaly has produced winters as devoid of cold weather as 2018-19 and 2019-20 have been, then it just shows that something is badly wrong and has changed significantly since 2013.

Yes but this winter has mainly been a descending westerly QBO or a transitional period so it is not possible to say that this winter was a pure negative QBO so we might have to wait until next winter to see the effect of that also I follow Gavs Weather Videos and when he was doing his winter forecast he forecast a slightly below average winter but he said he could not rule out a very mild winter due to the situation with the sea surface temperatures not being favourable he mentioned both the Pacific and the Atlantic explaining that a tripole pattern is normally favourable for a cold winter in NW Europe but he said at the beginning of December we have the opposite of a tripole in the Atlantic so we cannot rule out the possibility of the SSTs and the IOD causing issues for this winter.  before 2008/09 it was said on these forums by a guy by the name of Ian Brown with his MW theory that we could not experience a winter like 1995/96 ever again but we all know that it was disproven by 2009/10 which was colder than 1995/96 and December 2010.  Experiencing those events in my recent adult lifetime, never mind my whole life time makes it difficult to believe that we will not see similar events again in our lifetimes even with reduced frequency - as explained we had 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13 and 2018 not to forget March 2013 too which was the coldest March that many of us have experienced - I cannot believe that the ability to experience significant cold spells can be turned off like a switch especially in the context of a complex, chaotic system like weather and climate - I did Physics at University and I know that Meteorology involves a lot of physics, but unlike many branches of physics like particle physics and classical mechanics, weather and climate is particularly chaotic in other branches of physics I believe that Quantum Mechanics (uncertainty principle) and radioactive decay of the nucleus with random decay will be more approximate to this situation as I said I do not deny that global warming is happening I can't see how the possibility of significant cold events turn off like a switch metrology is not a black and white science.

 

Luke  

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
14 hours ago, Downburst said:

What I’m looking for in the models at present is some letup in the current pattern for those that have, or will have had a terrible time with flooding. For the rest of us, some dry days and some sign of spring. Here’s the moan.... the incessant hunt for snow in the model thread is very boring. A few terrible bores in there. Isn’t there more to offer in meteorology then snow? I know they get likes and all. But it’s almost verging on unhealthy in my view.

I always wonder what those people actually do when it does snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
1 hour ago, ManiaMuse said:

I always wonder what those people actually do when it does snow.

It is often the case when the UK does get snow, that some parts of the country do considerably better than others and while some part of the country may see a good snowfall, only 100-200 miles away may see nothing.  Most of the snow in the UK does fall and accumulate on higher ground, and with elevation snow events are always more impressive.  It is actually a very rare event for a large part of our country and especially at low levels to see snow at the same time.

Another winter weather type that appears to have disappeared from low levels in recent winters is widespread fog.  I mean a true winter fog, when the whole air and atmosphere is white.  Snow is a white stuff that falls and covers the ground and surfaces, whereas fog is the white stuff that fills the air and atmosphere away from the ground and surfaces.  Fog has certainly been a rare commodity in most recent winters.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

 

12_222_preciptype.png

 

Lol, for a laugh, guess who lives almost within that Nelson's Column shaped snow shield in the south?!  Me!  That would be just typical!    Nice to see some eye candy charts anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
8 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

It is often the case when the UK does get snow, that some parts of the country do considerably better than others and while some part of the country may see a good snowfall, only 100-200 miles away may see nothing.  Most of the snow in the UK does fall and accumulate on higher ground, and with elevation snow events are always more impressive.  It is actually a very rare event for a large part of our country and especially at low levels to see snow at the same time.

Another winter weather type that appears to have disappeared from low levels in recent winters is widespread fog.  I mean a true winter fog, when the whole air and atmosphere is white.  Snow is a white stuff that falls and covers the ground and surfaces, whereas fog is the white stuff that fills the air and atmosphere away from the ground and surfaces.  Fog has certainly been a rare commodity in most recent winters.

It can be a far less distance than that, even 15-20 miles can be the difference between a good snowfall and nothing, especially during marginal set ups.  I agree it is rare to see country wide snow events, though.  I think winter 2009/10 and December 2010 were the last occasions this occurred.   Reference to fog, I remember during the 80's winters, fog could be so thick you literally couldn't see to the other side of the road!  Must be 20 years or more since I have seen such an event.

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Posted
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow in winter, good sun at other times with appropriate rain.
  • Location: Glyn Ceiriog. 197m ASL
33 minutes ago, Don said:

It can be a far less distance than that, even 15-20 miles can be the difference between a good snowfall and nothing, especially during marginal set ups.  I agree it is rare to see country wide snow events, though.  I think winter 2009/10 and December 2010 were the last occasions this occurred.   Reference to fog, I remember during the 80's winters, fog could be so thick you literally couldn't see to the other side of the road!  Must be 20 years or more since I have seen such an event.

You want to come and live in a valley in Wales.  It’s like Brigadoon sometimes., without, alas, Gene Kelley.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Does anyone have any idea why widespread fog is such a rare commodity in the UK winter weather these days?  Although snow is the white stuff that covers the ground, fog is actually the white stuff that fills the air away from surfaces.  I do not know when there was last widespread fog when the whole air was white with fog more than 50 yards away.  The only place that I have ever found "proper fog" in recent years is over high ground, I have seen instances in recent times where the air is white with fog more than 100 yards away on higher ground only with good elevation, but very rarely at low levels.  It seems that today, elevation is required to see either the ground or the air white from snow or fog.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Why can't we get charts like this in early Feb these days......not early March!:olddoh:

 

gfs-1-360.png

Because March is often the coldest and snowiest even if it isn't classed as winter 

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
13 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Because March is often the coldest and snowiest even if it isn't classed as winter 

We have only had five significantly colder than average Marches since 1988 and they were 2018, 2013 (notably so), 2006, 2001, and 1996, so I do not know where people are getting the idea from of colder Marches being common in recent times; I would call five in 32 years certainly not a good showing for colder Marches.

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
1 hour ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

We have only had five significantly colder than average Marches since 1988 and they were 2018, 2013 (notably so), 2006, 2001, and 1996, so I do not know where people are getting the idea from of colder Marches being common in recent times; I would call five in 32 years certainly not a good showing for colder Marches.

I don't get it either, theres certainly an some sort of obsession going around though that claims March to be the coldest winter month, I personally have always considered March to be the start of Spring.

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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL

March may well be meteorological Spring but in northern parts of the UK it can still bring heavy snow & conditions more akin to Winter - especially early & mid month. I've known many a snowy March. For me the feel of most of the month is still wintry as well. It might be a bit lighter during the morning & evening but there's still no leaves on the trees or any proper flowering happening. For me Spring doesn't truly kick in until April when nature visibly wakes up but even then there's still a lingering risk of some wintry weather given we had snow cover here one morning just a few days off May in 2016.

Edited by Frost HoIIow
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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
8 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

We have only had five significantly colder than average Marches since 1988 and they were 2018, 2013 (notably so), 2006, 2001, and 1996, so I do not know where people are getting the idea from of colder Marches being common in recent times; I would call five in 32 years certainly not a good showing for colder Marches.

Well.all.those facts and figures are on the change again climate wise and March looks like delivering a taste of winter (again) so that'll do me very nicely thanks pal! 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Rushden. Northamptonshire

Waking up again this morning with rain, and cloud flying across the sky at silly speeds! This relentless weather is becoming more depressing, hampering on any events or things to do outside that may need doing. Also I have given up looking at weather apps for day to day forecasts as they do not or cant keep up with the changes, Looking in the long term forecast topics seems silly as nothing really proves correct anymore, any cold or warm calmer weather foretasted ends up just turning to the mush we have now.

Surely this pattern can't keep sticking on and on, really need a good couple of months of calm and much drier weather minimum.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
16 minutes ago, knocker said:

I notice the bunting is already being raised at the prospect of a few days of cool, damp and quite unpleasant weather. All very odd but but no big surprise of course.

I guess its all about preferences, by march i am looking to Spring.

Esp after one of the wettest Febs i can remember locally.

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Posted
  • Location: Shrewsbury
  • Location: Shrewsbury

Wet Marches always seem to have quite a bit of it as snow: 1995, 2001, 2018

I can't remember a March that was constantly mild and wet with no snow in the way several Jans and Febs have been; the worst March can do is be mild and dull but dry (1997, 2000). 

A March that starts like 2018 and finishes like 2012 will do me this year; it would have everything that's been lacking this winter.

Edited by Summer of 95
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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
8 hours ago, snowray said:

I don't get it either, theres certainly an some sort of obsession going around though that claims March to be the coldest winter month, I personally have always considered March to be the start of Spring.

Because recents marches have brought unprecidented snowfalls severe drifting and blizzards on a scale that beats all the last winters since 1987 put together

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
40 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I guess its all about preferences, by march i am looking to Spring.

Esp after one of the wettest Febs i can remember locally.

Ditto, nature is already waking up so a cold March is really not needed.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

Jet november no year comparison maybe the 1700`s long way south,winter jet back north late 1980`s winters returned,end of february jet goes south 2010`s marches returns.

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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
9 hours ago, snowray said:

I don't get it either, theres certainly an some sort of obsession going around though that claims March to be the coldest winter month, I personally have always considered March to be the start of Spring.

In my experience of more than 50 years farming up here March has always been treated as a winter month on the farm.In spite of bulb growth it is a very hungry month for farm livestock and wild life with grass fields bare and new growth only starting in April.

The sea temperatures being at their lowest now with N and E winds being at their highest frequency from March till June and our proximity to the Arctic Circle mean spring snow often occurs in the north of Scotland.Normal turnout to adequate grass for the cattle is usually the 20th of April

 

The best skiing conditions on the surrounding mountains too often occur in spring .This year is no exception as the western mountains now have had several freeze thaw cycles with gullies full and possibly snow depths in them measured in hundreds of feet.The snow scars in early June should be impressive after all the 100mile per hour winds.they have had in the last few weeks.

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