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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
  • Location: N.E. Scotland South Side Moray Firth 100m asl
2 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

honestly who wants snow in late April???

Actually I am one .Most years go for a drive up to the hills   about five miles to the south of me in late April to get my final snow fix Quite often we have cattle out  but winter returns over a 1000feet. Again day length and strong spring light can make the hills look stunning and you always know that it will be gone very quickly. Ground usually dry at this point so it melts and dries up quickly unlike winter when it becomes a mess.

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
1 hour ago, Zak M said:

The latest GFS update indicates a low pressure system tracking across the early hours of Thursday along with very heavy rain with very cold air besides it.

And when heavy rain bumps into cold air, then you get... SNOW! ❄️

The snow won't be present everywhere in the UK though. Northern England and some parts of Scotland should see some decent snow amounts on Thursday morning.

These snow amounts are likely to cause disruption on roads and railways.

If you live in tomorrow mornings snow alley, stay safe! ❄️

 

And for Us once again in the southeast don't tell me....  Nothing but cold rain? So far I've not seen ONE single flake of snow all "winter" 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

honestly who wants snow in late April???

Not me, too much damage to fruit and veg and by then, there are other, more interesting weather types that could be occurring.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
8 hours ago, MP-R said:

Can’t think of many Februaries that fit that description...

It’s the driest month of the year on average here, only 37mm for the 1981-2010 period.

As for snow in April - we had about 2cm on the 29th of April 2016. Only two days away from being a rare May snowfall. All melted well before noon though obviously.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
6 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well we have not had a below average winter since 2012-13, and in the seven winters since then, only 2017-18 was close to average, and most of the others being well above average, which is a very poor showing, so something is clearly wrong to stop cold weather getting to the UK, and makes it very worrying as to when the next good winter for cold will be if it can ever happen again.

The winter of 2015 was also average overall, just much less amplified in its CET extremes than the winter of 2018. 

...

Only the summer of 2015 can really be considered poor since 2012 (people allow the heatwave to cloud their judgement i think), i tend to think that the summer of 2017 was ideal for me. Heat in May/June when its relatively dry rather than humid (cooler continent and oceans than late summer may be the reason?) before it saw a 2010 style collapse in the second half (nice, cool and wet to end the summer and enter Autumn).

....

On your earlier point about the winters of 2019 and 2020 signalling problems actually bar the mild December the winter of 2019 fit the top 20 spotless years pattern well with 40% of top 20 winters seeing Jan CET's in the 3.5-5.3C range (CET was 4.0C) and a whopping 60% of those winters seeing a Feb CET of 5.4C or above. Most of us really missed that solar signal but it's there (though they tend to start cold). 

This winter is the anomaly with 2019 being the fourth most spotless year on record. Top 10 winters heavily favour a December of 3.6C or below (50%), a January of 5.3C or below (100% - Jan 20 sets a new record here) and a Feb of 5.3C or below (80%).    

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Some one pass me the smelling salts !

The ECM is essentially game over for this winter if it verifies . Please don’t verify ! 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
26 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

The ECM day 10 chart is an absolute horror show....massive PV and low arctic heights all over. Strong +AO on display again. Wave bye bye to February.

Didn’t even say hello to February.....

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

God! that ecm 12z is bad, hop from 72z to 216z and more or less you're looking at the same chart! :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: All of it!
  • Location: Bedfordshire (35m ASL)
2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Och well, once the weekend's wind and rain become but a distant memory, the 12Z holds some reason for optimism:

For those wanting warmth...h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

For those wanting cold:       h500slp.pngh850t850eu.png

What could possibly go wrong!

WIN - WIN - To be honest I'm ready for spring now, winter is done and any cold now is becoming less welcome at this point as we head into spring.  There is a time and a place after all...  

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
34 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

God! that ecm 12z is bad, hop from 72z to 216z and more or less you're looking at the same chart! :wallbash:

The gfs latest run is the horror show of Horror Shows with a ghoulish rain train rattling along the overly Familiar Track West To east out staying its welcome and scaring the pants of us with its deluge of Rainfall and Wind haunting us out into the realms of FI..... 

Edited by Snowfish2
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Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

The ECM day 10 chart is an absolute horror show....massive PV and low arctic heights all over. Strong +AO on display again. Wave bye bye to February.

Wind and rain. I like it 

It's not actually that mild either - cool wind and rain, which is even better!

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)

What a sorry excuse for a winter. Roll on Spring and some warmth. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London

It actually felt sort of almost wintery today, cool with a brisk windchill.  Still only needed a t-shirt and light coat, but a week ago I was walking to the gym in just a t-shirt, in mid winter lol   

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
3 hours ago, cheese said:

It’s the driest month of the year on average here, only 37mm for the 1981-2010 period.

As for snow in April - we had about 2cm on the 29th of April 2016. Only two days away from being a rare May snowfall. All melted well before noon though obviously.

Indeed; certainly not a time of year associated with rain and gales.

That was a notable cold spell! I think the further north you were the better. Down here there was some snow in the showers on the 26th but the main enjoyment factor was the convective skies and thunder.

14th April 1999 remains the latest snowfall here in my lifetime.

Edited by MP-R
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Posted
  • Location: Arendal, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, snow and more snow!
  • Location: Arendal, Norway

I think that both 1989 and 1990 had also a record vortex but no cold in March or April...

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 hour ago, Beanz said:

WIN - WIN - To be honest I'm ready for spring now, winter is done and any cold now is becoming less welcome at this point as we head into spring.  There is a time and a place after all...  

Beanz meanz Heinz? God, I'm old!

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

I remember snow in April 98, it may be the 10th.

It snowed at my parents on 2nd April 2012 as the weather flipped for the year.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, convective precipitation, snow, thunderstorms, "episodic" months.
  • Location: Lincoln, Lincolnshire

In South Tyneside there were snow showers on the afternoon and evening of 6 May 1997 and my records state that one of the heavier showers even provided a sprinkling on the ground, though of course it melted almost immediately.  The region had some sleety showers overnight 11/12 May 1995 and again on 11 May 2010.  Snow in April is more common there and there was some lying snow on 12 April 1998, 13/14 April 1999 and 6/7 April 2008, although on each occasion it was short lived.  There was snow which didn't lie on 18 and 19 April 1995, 4 April 2000, 18 April 2001, 8 April 2005, 8 April 2006, 3 April 2012, and in late April 2016 and 2017.  Further north I recall seeing reports of lying snow in the Aberdeen area near the end of April 2015.

Also, in my current neck of the woods, I recall people from the Exeter area reporting a dusting of snow early on 6 April 2008 and locally even thundersnow, although naturally it is more rare in the south-west peninsula.  It wasn't cold enough for snow here in the late April cold snaps of 2015, 2016 or 2017, but there was thunder and fairly large hail in the 2017 one.

Edited by Thundery wintry showers
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Posted
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, warm sunny summers.
  • Location: Jordanstown, Co. Antrim

 Over the last 60 years ( I’m 64 now ) I’ve noticed a real change in winter weather.

when I was young in the 60’s, we always had at least two or three snow events per season, and that was outside the winter of 62/63. When it wasn’t snowing we had long cold frosty days, when you could put water on the ground and it would freeze almost instantly, or the frost never lifted throughout the day. Either that or there was always snow preceding rain, or cold cloudy days with snow flurries.

i thought the 90’s and 00’s were bad for cold winters, but the last decade was worse with the only winter remotely resembling my childhood 2017/18. 
 

How long does it have to be before the average temperature for January is adjusted upwards ?
 

I think in these parts it’s around 6 degrees C, but we rarely have constant maximum temperatures in January at those levels, and often continually at 10 or 11. 

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
4 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Roll on spring  I’ve had enough of this pain . ❄️ 

I agree. It’s been a tiring winter and unlike some, I believe that March is a Spring month with no place for cold and snow.

Models are hinting at some very mild conditions. We will see!

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1 hour ago, Northern Sky said:

Wind and rain. I like it 

It's not actually that mild either - cool wind and rain, which is even better!

I so agree, this winter hasn't seen any prolonged exceptionally mild periods thank god, been quite interesting actually, look forward to next winter. Anything beats Summer boredom. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
23 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Years with an AO value of +1> in Feb were 1959, 1967, 1976, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2011, 2015 and 2019.

Only 2002, 2000, 1995, 1992 and 1976 saw the vortex relent to a +1< value in March.

The batch that relent basically stay westerly but a more north/split, the batch that don’t are actually quite warm and settled.

Except 2002 which took until the equinox to settle down. That final week was very pleasant.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, topo said:

I think that both 1989 and 1990 had also a record vortex but no cold in March or April...

April 1989 was cold.

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