Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Snowyowl9]

Well I have to say we`ve had more snow showers than expected from this another extra dusting and snowing big flakes this morning,seems like snow showers are forming over the mountains in this case.

[mountain shadow]

28 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Forgive me mods

THE RECENT MAGNITUDE OF THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE 

 

 

Winter CETs for 1910-11 to 1914-15, a very deep solar minimum

1910-11 5.0

1911-12: 5.1

1912-13: 5.3

1913-14: 5.3

1914-15: 4.3

 

I'm personally a little sceptical of the IDOs impact on our Winter.

The PV has remained omnipotent even though the IDO has wained.

Australia has gone from record heat and fire to low temperatures and flood as the IDO eased, in North Western Europe the weather has stayed almost the same with a rampant PV.

[mb018538]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm personally a little sceptical of the IDOs impact on our Winter.

The PV has remained omnipotent even though the IDO has wained.

Australia has gone from record heat and fire to low temperatures and flood as the IDO eased, in North Western Europe the weather has stayed almost the same with a rampant PV.

Bit unfair to blame all of this rubbish winter on @IDO isn't it??! 

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Bit unfair to blame all of this rubbish winter on @IDO isn't it??! 

Whoops. IOD. 

[mb018538]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Whoops. IOD. 

Seriously though - I'm sure the IOD battered the first half of winter to a pulp and encouraged a strong PV to form. Could it be it just set the wheels in motion so much so that it couldn't be shifted? Hard to remember a more robust PV from top to bottom in recent years, any slight warmings have been brushed away pretty quickly. We've had a record AO, as a well as a couple of date record zonal wind speeds broken. Or are there other factors driving it? Anyone?

Edited February 12, 2020 by mb018538

[weirpig]

Not to best of winters this year it has to be said    Seen a few snowflakes which hasnt made it a total bust.  Next few days however look very grim  The wind speeds may be a tad lower than last weekend  however the  rainfall in most areas looks to be very high  espicially over Wales.  And when that rainwater spills into the rivers  i expect major flooding 

[Weather-history]

27 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm personally a little sceptical of the IDOs impact on our Winter.

The PV has remained omnipotent even though the IDO has wained.

Australia has gone from record heat and fire to low temperatures and flood as the IDO eased, in North Western Europe the weather has stayed almost the same with a rampant PV.

Catacol is probably the best to ask about this but what just got me was talking about background signals and totally ignoring about the state of the IOD. You can't ignore it was that intense, you have to look at it as a possibility. 

[MP-R]

13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

agree today, been a pain with no snow, February does seem to suck though, often nowadays wet and windy and 13 degrees, more like autumn

Can’t think of many Februaries that fit that description...

[North-Easterly Blast]

3 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Forgive me mods

THE RECENT MAGNITUDE OF THE INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE 

 

 

Winter CETs for 1910-11 to 1914-15, a very deep solar minimum

1910-11 5.0

1911-12: 5.1

1912-13: 5.3

1913-14: 5.3

1914-15: 4.3

 

So as you rightly point out only one of those winters was close to average; the other four were all in the milder category, and of particular note the February of the 1913-14 winter was extremely mild.  Of particular interest does anyone have any previous stats on previous winters that had a strong Indian Ocean Dipole?  It would be of particular interest to see how other winters in the UK turned out that had a strong IOD to make a comparison with this one, to see if such a pattern is generally not conducive to cold in the UK.  With only this one to go on and not knowing what any previous winters were like during a strong IOD it is impossible to know how this winter compares.  

It now seems as though a strong ocean temperature anomaly in any of the oceans like ENSO or IOD ruins the chances of favourable patterns developing to get cold air to the UK.  Something also obviously went wrong in 2013-14 to result in a rubbish winter for the UK but does anyone know what did?

With a closer to average winter in 2017-18 and a fairly cold February that year, and the best winter since 2012-13, hopes were raised that the UK was starting to get some better winters again after a pretty poor mid 2010s period, but this winter, and the one in 2018-19, have reversed the UK into very poor winters again from a cold perspective, and makes one question if the 2017-18 winter is the modern version of 2009-10 or even 2012-13, and that it is no longer possible for a prolonged spell of severe wintry weather to develop again, considering that the poor winter this year and the one a year ago in 2018-19 have brought so little, and we are close to solar minimum with no strong ENSO anomaly.

Edited February 12, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[Methuselah]

15 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

So as you rightly point out only one of those winters was close to average; the other four were all in the milder category, and of particular note the February of the 1913-14 winter was extremely mild.  Of particular interest does anyone have any previous stats on previous winters that had a strong Indian Ocean Dipole?  It would be of particular interest to see how other winters in the UK turned out that had a strong IOD to make a comparison with this one, to see if such a pattern is generally not conducive to cold in the UK.  With only this one to go on and not knowing what any previous winters were like during a strong IOD it is impossible to know how this winter compares.  

It now seems as though a strong ocean temperature anomaly in any of the oceans like ENSO or IOD ruins the chances of favourable patterns developing to get cold air to the UK.  Something also obviously went wrong in 2013-14 to result in a rubbish winter for the UK but does anyone know what did?

With a closer to average winter in 2017-18 and a fairly cold February that year, and the best winter since 2012-13, hopes were raised that the UK was starting to get some better winters again after a pretty poor mid 2010s period, but this winter, and the one in 2018-19, have reversed the UK into very poor winters again from a cold perspective, and makes one question if the 2017-18 winter is the modern version of 2009-10 or even 2012-13, and that it is no longer possible for a prolonged spell of severe wintry weather to develop again, considering that the poor winter this year and the one a year ago in 2018-19 have brought so little, and we are close to solar minimum with no strong ENSO anomaly.

Perhaps it's time to question the validity of some of these 'correlations'...In particular, the one with sunspots? 

Given that the last 120 years have seen so few severe winters, and even fewer 'deep solar minima', one has to wonder whether said correlation is anything more than a statistical quirk -- an artefact?

[mb018538]

20 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

So as you rightly point out only one of those winters was close to average; the other four were all in the milder category, and of particular note the February of the 1913-14 winter was extremely mild.  Of particular interest does anyone have any previous stats on previous winters that had a strong Indian Ocean Dipole?  It would be of particular interest to see how other winters in the UK turned out that had a strong IOD to make a comparison with this one, to see if such a pattern is generally not conducive to cold in the UK.  With only this one to go on and not knowing what any previous winters were like during a strong IOD it is impossible to know how this winter compares.  

It now seems as though a strong ocean temperature anomaly in any of the oceans like ENSO or IOD ruins the chances of favourable patterns developing to get cold air to the UK.  Something also obviously went wrong in 2013-14 to result in a rubbish winter for the UK but does anyone know what did?

With a closer to average winter in 2017-18 and a fairly cold February that year, and the best winter since 2012-13, hopes were raised that the UK was starting to get some better winters again after a pretty poor mid 2010s period, but this winter, and the one in 2018-19, have reversed the UK into very poor winters again from a cold perspective, and makes one question if the 2017-18 winter is the modern version of 2009-10 or even 2012-13, and that it is no longer possible for a prolonged spell of severe wintry weather to develop again, considering that the poor winter this year and the one a year ago in 2018-19 have brought so little, and we are close to solar minimum with no strong ENSO anomaly.

I don't think it's impossible for us to get a cold winter again....it's probably that they will become fewer and further between - which is what we've seen in the last 20-30 years anyway.

[North-Easterly Blast]

5 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I don't think it's impossible for us to get a cold winter again....it's probably that they will become fewer and further between - which is what we've seen in the last 20-30 years anyway.

Well we have not had a below average winter since 2012-13, and in the seven winters since then, only 2017-18 was close to average, and most of the others being well above average, which is a very poor showing, so something is clearly wrong to stop cold weather getting to the UK, and makes it very worrying as to when the next good winter for cold will be if it can ever happen again.

Edited February 12, 2020 by North-Easterly Blast

[OldBloke]

For this current meteorological winter, the UK has had snow on the following days: December 28 out of 31, January 26 out of 31 and so far for February, 10 out of 12 days. Those days where it didn't snow in the UK, 4 were of rain days and the others were where a high pressure sat over the country so no precipitation recorded. Cold weather being stopped from getting to the UK? 

Edited February 12, 2020 by OldBloke

[Sunny76]

32 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well we have not had a below average winter since 2012-13, and in the seven winters since then, only 2017-18 was close to average, and most of the others being well above average, which is a very poor showing, so something is clearly wrong to stop cold weather getting to the UK, and makes it very worrying as to when the next good winter for cold will be if it can ever happen again.

Not every summer since post 2012 has been great either.

I wish people would stop playing down just how poor the summers have been in some regions, especially 2015,16, and 17. All were cloudy and cool at times, despite the hot spikes.

[hillbilly]

29 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Well we have not had a below average winter since 2012-13, and in the seven winters since then, only 2017-18 was close to average, and most of the others being well above average, which is a very poor showing, so something is clearly wrong to stop cold weather getting to the UK, and makes it very worrying as to when the next good winter for cold will be if it can ever happen again.

Yes it does seem like we have had a major shift to mild but we don't know all about how our weather is influenced.What happened in the 1730s where there were 8 winters averaging above 5 degrees in a row where for a century before and after it was more like 3 deg at best.The following thos very mild 8 winters there was 1740,arguably the coldest winter there has been recorded.

[Sunny76]

Another 2009, or 10 will happen again. Its just a case of when.

[Froze were the Days]

28 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Not every summer since post 2012 has been great either.

I wish people would stop playing down just how poor the summers have been in some regions, especially 2015,16, and 17. All were cloudy and cool at times, despite the hot spikes.

Seriously they haven't been poor...okay we might have had a poorish month (June last year) or a period of cloud and some rain (some Augusts spring to mind) but here in the south east we haven't had a poor summer since 2012. You mention 'some regions' having poor summers, but you can count the south and south east out of that.

Edited February 12, 2020 by Froze were the Days

[Sunny76]

47 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Seriously they haven't been poor...okay we might have had a poorish month (June last year) or a period of cloud and some rain (some Augusts spring to mind) but here in the south east we haven't had a poor summer since 2012. You mention 'some regions' having poor summers, but you can count the south and south east out of that.

I live in London, and remember june, parts of July and August having longer periods of dull and cloudy days.

2016, had a dud june with too much cloud, although it was thundery and humid towards the end, and we had the severe thunderstorms on the Referendum night, July had some warm to hot weather in the second half, and August was sunny and warm, which extended into September. 

2017, started off well, with a warm sunny spring, and a very warm and sunny June, after a coolish start. First half of July was sunny and warm, mid month produced some widespread thunderstorms, similar to june 2016. after this however, things went downhill into mid july, and the august was dull.

[Sunny76]

So, like I say, those summers weren't great. 2017 seemed to have better weather throughout the year. 

That said, even in the poorest summers, we still get a warm sunny spell of weather. 1993 was terrible, but still produced some warm to hot days.

 

[username home]

For those who have lost all hope this winter, have a read of this....

Snow in late April, more common than you may think | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

This week many places have seen the type of weather you may usually associate with winter than late April, with wintry showers observed as far south as southern counties of England. However, snow at this time...

still over 10 weeks to go before all hope needs to be given up...

beliiiiiiiieeeeeeevvvvvveee!

 

[Northernlights]

14 minutes ago, username home said:

For those who have lost all hope this winter, have a read of this....

Snow in late April, more common than you may think | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

This week many places have seen the type of weather you may usually associate with winter than late April, with wintry showers observed as far south as southern counties of England. However, snow at this time...

still over 10 weeks to go before all hope needs to be given up...

beliiiiiiiieeeeeeevvvvvveee!

 

Think the chances may be quite high this year as we have a very intense cold  vortex which has to break up sometime in the spring spreading a lot of cold out across the Northen Hemisphere.Here in the north of Scotland spring snow is very common sea temperatures are at their lowest N and E winds at their highest frequency from April to June and we are fairly close to the Arctic when the winds are in the north. Ice days are possible here until early April too with blowing snow as well

Easter 1968 with snow on and off for two weeks and June 1st 1975 are the most memorable for me. Another point is that with the strong spring light the colours of the clouds, sky and snow are more enhanced and there has been many a spring evening when I have watched snow showers to the NE crossing the Firth bathed in the pink light of the setting sun. Another feature of spring snow is that it  seems to nearly always falls at night so having a much better chance of settling. Grauple too is a feature spring falling at what would seem a very high temperature only to be followed by snow flakes as it cools the air.

[cheeky_monkey]

31 minutes ago, username home said:

For those who have lost all hope this winter, have a read of this....

Snow in late April, more common than you may think | Official blog of the Met Office news team

BLOG.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

This week many places have seen the type of weather you may usually associate with winter than late April, with wintry showers observed as far south as southern counties of England. However, snow at this time...

still over 10 weeks to go before all hope needs to be given up...

beliiiiiiiieeeeeeevvvvvveee!

 

honestly who wants snow in late April???

[username home]

7 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

honestly who wants snow in late April???

a large majority on here i suspect....

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, username home said:

a large majority on here i suspect....

I'd far rather it were 26C with wall-to-wall sunshine...

[MP-R]

20 minutes ago, username home said:

a large majority on here i suspect....

Not me. Sure, if it does happen then fine, but it's so infrequent I'd much rather some classic April shower days or a sunny area of high pressure.