Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Don]

29 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

You can bet your bottom dollar it will go negative through the summer months!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

7 minutes ago, Don said:

You can bet your bottom dollar it will go negative through the summer months!

Look toward Greenland  

 

[Nick L]

7 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Look toward Greenland  

 

Trust me to pick June to go storm chasing this year!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

4 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Trust me to pick June to go storm chasing this year!

Might be something brewing for next week 

will keep an eye on it and will open a thread in the storm chasing section if needed.

[Don]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

Norway results in now. Looks like their warmest ever January. This is widespread winter warmth. Sure something is not right. 23c in NE Spain today !

It's the result of a warming climate.  I think this winter will most likely be the warmest on record for Scandinavia and probably Europe, too!

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Indeed. And kudos to @CreweCold for making this year's standout winter forecast?! 

Thanks mate

[Beet]

I came on here to post that asking for a cold snap is too much, and that I, at this point would be satisfied with just one cold day. But looking at the posts here, I don't even think that's even going to happen.

I have never found myself desperate for the arrival of spring, but it's happening this winter.

I have never found myself hoping it snows in March, but it's happening this winter.

I have never seen a winter fail to record a sub 7C max here, but it's happening this winter.

[Don]

22 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Thanks mate

If there is anything to take from this winter, it's unlikely that next year could be much worse?!

[carinthian]

12 hours ago, carinthian said:

Norway results in now. Looks like their warmest ever January. This is widespread winter warmth. Sure something is not right. 23c in NE Spain today !

An astonishing 27C reached in Valencia yesterday. Now that's extreme !

C

[northwestsnow]

10 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

Look toward Greenland  

 

Its fast becoming the new norm, zero Northern blocking in winter and masses of it and a southerly tracking jet in summer.

The worst possible outcome if related to GW.

 

[mb018538]

17 minutes ago, carinthian said:

An astonishing 27C reached in Valencia yesterday. Now that's extreme !

C

Ridiculous. Temperatures forecast in the mid 70s for the next few days too. In mid-winter. Close to record breaking, but that's not the point really. Just another piece of the 2019/2020 mild winter everywhere puzzle.

[carinthian]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Ridiculous. Temperatures forecast in the mid 70s for the next few days too. In mid-winter. Close to record breaking, but that's not the point really. Just another piece of the 2019/2020 mild winter everywhere puzzle.

From Spain to Sweden. Not sure Europe has experienced anything like this winter so far. You just know something is not right. Ignorant Trump still in denial as to whats going on.

C

[SqueakheartLW]

Winter 1868-1869 compared with 2019-2020 so far

Current mildest winter on record

December 1868 - CET 7.2     December 2019 - CET 5.8     -1.4 lower

January 1869 - CET 5.6         January 2020 - CET 6.5        +0.9 higher

February 1869 - CET 7.5

 

February 2020 needs to record a CET of 8.0 to equal the mildest winter on record of 1868-1869

If we get CET of 8.1 or more then we have a new record mildest winter.

Based on how our winter has been so far and the output showing for the next 2 weeks at least combined with a possible record breaking positive AO and continuation of positive NAO then don't rule out a February CET of 8.0 or more. That in itself would beat 1779's all time February CET record of 7.9.

[SLEETY]

8 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Winter 1868-1869 compared with 2019-2020 so far

Current mildest winter on record

December 1868 - CET 7.2     December 2019 - CET 5.8     -1.4 lower

January 1869 - CET 5.6         January 2020 - CET 6.5        +0.9 higher

February 1869 - CET 7.5

 

February 2020 needs to record a CET of 8.0 to equal the mildest winter on record of 1868-1869

If we get CET of 8.1 or more then we have a new record mildest winter.

Based on how our winter has been so far and the output showing for the next 2 weeks at least combined with a possible record breaking positive AO and continuation of positive NAO then don't rule out a February CET of 8.0 or more. That in itself would beat 1779's all time February CET record of 7.9.

Interesting stats.Their were some brutal winters after the mildest ever winter.And it’s taken over 150 years to have a chance of the mildest ever winter again.

 

Going put this winter down to one of those freak events,like when we got a winter of the severity of 1962/1963 that was a one in 250 year event.

[SqueakheartLW]

14 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Winter 1868-1869 compared with 2019-2020 so far

Current mildest winter on record

December 1868 - CET 7.2     December 2019 - CET 5.8     -1.4 lower

January 1869 - CET 5.6         January 2020 - CET 6.5        +0.9 higher

February 1869 - CET 7.5

 

February 2020 needs to record a CET of 8.0 to equal the mildest winter on record of 1868-1869

If we get CET of 8.1 or more then we have a new record mildest winter.

Based on how our winter has been so far and the output showing for the next 2 weeks at least combined with a possible record breaking positive AO and continuation of positive NAO then don't rule out a February CET of 8.0 or more. That in itself would beat 1779's all time February CET record of 7.9.

 

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Interesting stats.Their were some brutal winters after the mildest ever winter.And it’s taken over 150 years to have a chance of the mildest ever winter again.

 

Going put this winter down to one of those freak events,like when we got a winter of the severity of 1962/1963 that was a one in 250 year event.

Considering February 1779 got a CET of 7.9 and how we have a warmer world than back in the 1700's then I just get the feeling that we are due our first February CET of 8.0 or more. We got our first 20C+ day last February.

[Richard Taylor]

I think the only damp straw I can clutch at is that some places around the globe have had record snowfall, eg. Newfoundland (St. Johns). If it can happen there who's to say it cannot happen here again. That said it doesn't feel right that we don't have any spell of significant (for us!) snowfall this winter. It does make you wonder when much of Europe seem to be reporting record high temps. Is it indeed some sort of GW-influenced step change? The snows of my childhood do seem to be receding into a more distant memory each warm, snowless winter we get.   

[snowrye]

Such a poor winter, steve murr mentioned that finland are norway are pretty much snowless, and has also posted a very dire outlook, at least most of the northern hemisphere is in the same boat, old man winter, where have you gone in recent years

[Froze were the Days]

10 hours ago, Don said:

If there is anything to take from this winter, it's unlikely that next year could be much worse?!

I wouldn't bank on it...just as much possibility of getting another similar winter, maybe with a milder December? - 2013/14, 2015/16 and this winter have been absolute stinkers!!

[Froze were the Days]

16 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Going put this winter down to one of those freak events,like when we got a winter of the severity of 1962/1963 that was a one in 250 year event.

Why?...3 of the worst winters I've recorded have come in the last 7 winters, and I've been recording since 1983/84.

[SLEETY]

but we have had two severe marches to make up for the rubbish winters of recent years.

Dont bet against it happening this time as well,looking at the latest gfs run,bitter cold waiting to hit Europe as we head closer to Spring again ,lol

[Methuselah]

54 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Why?...3 of the worst winters I've recorded have come in the last 7 winters, and I've been recording since 1983/84.

Aye FWTD. It's like entering a coin-tossing competition, following 99 successive heads: what does one do? Blindly stake one's house & contents on the next toss coming up 'tails', or check that said coin isn't biased...?

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Winter 1868-1869 compared with 2019-2020 so far

Current mildest winter on record

December 1868 - CET 7.2     December 2019 - CET 5.8     -1.4 lower

January 1869 - CET 5.6         January 2020 - CET 6.5        +0.9 higher

February 1869 - CET 7.5

 

February 2020 needs to record a CET of 8.0 to equal the mildest winter on record of 1868-1869

If we get CET of 8.1 or more then we have a new record mildest winter.

Based on how our winter has been so far and the output showing for the next 2 weeks at least combined with a possible record breaking positive AO and continuation of positive NAO then don't rule out a February CET of 8.0 or more. That in itself would beat 1779's all time February CET record of 7.9.

Interestingly the only top 20 spotless year that really gets close to this winter bar last year is actually 1877 with 6.0, 5.5, 6.2. A highly abnormal winter.

[SLEETY]

A highly abnormal mild winter is all it is, what's stopping spring being the other way. 

 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

I wouldn't bank on it...just as much possibility of getting another similar winter, maybe with a milder December? - 2013/14, 2015/16 and this winter have been absolute stinkers!!

I’m not banking an anything the way the climate is going.  However, next winter could hardly be more snowless than this one so far.  Even January 2016 held slight more interest.

[Summer Sun]

Valencia hit 27.0c yesterday with cold air very restricted to the far north of Europe