Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Cuban Zebra]

We are in a period of the life of the planet when violent swings in extremes are getting more and more, well, extreme!

The models rely on mathematical equations that get adjusted by humans based on forces outside these models. I’m of the belief that the current modelling has hit a “default” phase while everything equalises out, the “BOOM” charts we saw a few days ago will start to appear again. I expect to see some runs materialise soon!!!

[Corisa]

No news,  good news

[Don]

This is all very grim indeed and makes you wonder if a step change has taken place with climate change and will this actually become the norm now?!  I so very hope it's a one off, as this hasn't been just a normal mild winter for Europe and Scandinavia. 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Don

[Penrith Snow]

2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a stonker for 1000ft plus in North West England and Scotland - 20ft drifts covering houses likely.

How many houses are there above 1000 feet! Lol

However I get your point, very snowy over the mountains of Cumbria and Scotland 

Andy

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Penrith Snow said:

How many houses are there above 1000 feet! Lol

However I get your point, very snowy over the mountains of Cumbria and Scotland 

Andy

about 10% around here.

[Don]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

about 10% around here.

0% around here as there is no land at that altitude!

[igloo]

it doesn't get any worse than this we have a Incoming hurricane for mid Feb. who says the PV will slow down if anything it's even stronger than mid December very grim

[Don]

Just now, igloo said:

it doesn't get any worse than this we have a Incoming hurricane for mid Feb. who says the PV will slow down if anything it's even stronger than mid December very grim

Have we ever seen the AO as positive as forecast?

[igloo]

6 minutes ago, Don said:

Have we ever seen the AO as positive as forecast?

never it's of the scale.they will have to make a bigger scale in future years I would guess +6 it's touching unbelievable.

Edited January 31, 2020 by igloo

[Sceptical]

Meanwhile over on the fantasy thread, some are still fawning over 10 day charts.

[Griff]

What a depressing end to a depressing week, and the models haven't been much better either... 

[Don]

16 minutes ago, igloo said:

never it's of the scale.they will have to make a bigger scale in future years I would guess +6 it's touching unbelievable.

Just as I thought.  Interestingly wasn't the AO almost off the scale for negativity in January 2010 around -6?

Edited January 31, 2020 by Don

[igloo]

22 minutes ago, Don said:

Just as I thought.  Interestingly wasn't the AO almost off the scale for negativity in January 2010 around -6?

does look like it.was many years ago

Edited January 31, 2020 by igloo

[Don]

Just now, igloo said:

does look like was many years ago

Perhaps it will crash back down to extreme negativity next winter!? 

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

7 hours ago, Don said:

Perhaps it will crash back down to extreme negativity next winter!? 

One year it’s bound to

[Summer Sun]

The final month of winter is here. Not a single flake of snow so far that's almost unheard of here in the north east.

Edited February 1, 2020 by Summer Sun

[Ravelin]

One benefit of this snorefest of a winter.... I've spent far less time poring over charts and posts on here. There's just been no point. 

[Northernlights]

Raining again this morning . Mud has retuned in abundance.. If only we had some frost or the rain stopped.just for a change.

[snowblizzard]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

The final month of winter is here. Not a single flake of snow so far that's almost unheard of here in the north east.

Could it be the end of British winter as we know it?

I get the feeling it could be, especially for Southern England.

Global warming and ice melt driving weather patterns that will favour Westerly, Atlantic flow of weather on a much more regular basis. 

I can't remember a winter where so many mid latitude countries have experienced such sustained mild weather conditions!

[Don]

2 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

Global warming and ice melt driving weather patterns that will favour Westerly, Atlantic flow of weather on a much more regular basis. 

Up until recently it was thought that increased ice melt would favour northern blocking.  Perhaps we’re beyond that now?

[Mike Poole]

2 hours ago, Don said:

Up until recently it was thought that increased ice melt would favour northern blocking.  Perhaps we’re beyond that now?

I think the ice melt this year has been in a different place, more towards the Pacific side, so is unusual wrt that theory, so maybe worth waiting a few years to see what the impact is?

[Summer Sun]

 

[Sceptical]

45 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

That's astonishing, and worrying, at the same time.

Edited February 1, 2020 by Sceptical

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Sceptical said:

That's astonishing, and worrying, at the same time.

And depressing.

[daz_4]

Record for max. temp was broken on 134 out of 154 stations in my country today.