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Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat


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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
7 minutes ago, LRD said:

I think for me in the SE of England we will have another warm summer, which is great and the more positive side of the Az High's continued bloatedness. We haven't had a genuinely poor summer down here since 2012 (and even then, August turned out quite nice). Summers since 1989 have been, generally good, with some exceptions obviously. 

The sun is too strong for cloudy highs in summer but they can happen. Quite rare though. That weird spell in June 2019 was an example I guess. For the East of the country anyway

Anyway, I'll leave it there as we're straying off topic

GFS 6z seems stuck at 114hrs on Wetterzentrale

Probably too embarrassed to come out 

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Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Bedfordshire
3 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Probably too embarrassed to come out 

Ha! Yeah probably. Let's face it, though, surely it can't be any worse than the 0z run. Or can it...?

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Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow

Despite one of the most snowless winters in many years I am saved by incredible inversion cold.January might only end 1C above 1981-2010 here. Lakes are up to 20cm deep frozen and no snow to clear which makes great skating conditions. It could have been much worse if we were to be blown by westerlies but no chance for those in our valley. I am only now appreciating how great location I live in. Latest figures over the board from Czech Republic revealed 55% increase of British citizens moving there to live in last year! Could central Europe be the atractive region to live in? 

20200125_133806.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
20 minutes ago, fromey said:

This has been posted in the start thread, if this comes of and it is a big if we could end up with nothing!

0F275536-D0C5-4BBC-B80A-1BBDC3901C4F.jpeg

So basically whether we get a SSW or not, the result for western Europe is mild. I'd rather we don't get a SSW if it is going to waste the Arctic cold to North America and start spring on the wrong foot for the Arctic ice.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
6 minutes ago, karyo said:

So basically whether we get a SSW or not, the result for western Europe is mild. I'd rather we don't get a SSW if it is going to waste the Arctic cold to North America and start spring on the wrong foot for the Arctic ice.

The probability of a mild outcome makes that the default forecast, however from a quick check of the usual suspects on twitter I think it's fair to say that no one really knows for certain. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
1 minute ago, D.V.R said:

Shall we just wait and see what actually happens before we start throwing our toys out the pram?

This and the strato thread are for discussing what the models are showing for the next few days and weeks. If it is to wait and see what happens then this will be a current conditions thread.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, karyo said:

So basically whether we get a SSW or not, the result for western Europe is mild. I'd rather we don't get a SSW if it is going to waste the Arctic cold to North America and start spring on the wrong foot for the Arctic ice.

Well, that would be typical of winter 2019/20!  However, as others have said, we will just have to wait and see.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham

I can't help thinking we might see a completely Snowless winter, had winters before where we've seen little or no laying Snow but never a winter without a single flake, even a frost is rare this winter.

Always seems to be hints of something wintry on horizon but always disappears nearer time.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

Just noticed that there’s only been one night below freezing here this month, while the weather station at Leeds University hasn’t gone below freezing at all.

12 days have been above 10C, 3 above 13C.

A dry month though with only 31mm so far.

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, dry & sunny
  • Location: Guildford, Surrey

Noticed plenty of daffodils in full bloom around Surrey yesterday. Did winter come and go already? Err...

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Posted
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
  • Location: Eden Valley, Cumbria
5 hours ago, jules216 said:

Despite one of the most snowless winters in many years I am saved by incredible inversion cold.January might only end 1C above 1981-2010 here. Lakes are up to 20cm deep frozen and no snow to clear which makes great skating conditions. It could have been much worse if we were to be blown by westerlies but no chance for those in our valley. I am only now appreciating how great location I live in. Latest figures over the board from Czech Republic revealed 55% increase of British citizens moving there to live in last year! Could central Europe be the atractive region to live in? 

20200125_133806.jpg

Most on here would get their knickers in a knot about faux cold and a lack of snow but if you said to me I could pay a modest sum of money and for the whole of next winter we could be sat under an inversion with freezing fog, ice days and frozen lakes I’d sign for it right now. 

Edited by trickydicky
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
21 minutes ago, cheese said:

Just noticed that there’s only been one night below freezing here this month, while the weather station at Leeds University hasn’t gone below freezing at all.

12 days have been above 10C, 3 above 13C.

A dry month though with only 31mm so far.

That must be highly unusual for your neck of the woods, cheese?

I've managed 5 here. Poor compared to last year, but not as bad as 2018.

I'm on my 5th month in a row for 100mm+. January is currently as 115mm.

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Posted
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset
  • Location: Puddletown, Dorset
9 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

That must be highly unusual for your neck of the woods, cheese?

I've managed 5 here. Poor compared to last year, but not as bad as 2018.

I'm on my 5th month in a row for 100mm+. January is currently as 115mm.

Do you have any comparative data on hours of sunshine monthly from October to end Jan?

my impression for Dorset i s that we may be nearing a record low for that period - when not raining is has generally been about 100% cloud cover. Very few bright sunny days and last week possibly the first 'nearly dry' week through that period?

what other counties similar?

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
8 minutes ago, egret said:

Do you have any comparative data on hours of sunshine monthly from October to end Jan?

my impression for Dorset i s that we may be nearing a record low for that period - when not raining is has generally been about 100% cloud cover. Very few bright sunny days and last week possibly the first 'nearly dry' week through that period?

what other counties similar?

https://warehamwx.co.uk/graphs_historic.php

Click 'By Month' in the sunshine column. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Cheddington, Buckinghamshire
On 24/01/2020 at 23:19, Bristle boy said:

He is a student. Twitter breeds publicity seeking peeps.

Bit harsh. He's a meteorology graduate.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

That must be highly unusual for your neck of the woods, cheese?

I've managed 5 here. Poor compared to last year, but not as bad as 2018.

I'm on my 5th month in a row for 100mm+. January is currently as 115mm.

Yes very unusual. Didn’t realise how few poor it had been. Leeds city centre did have two frost-free months in 1990 - Jan and Feb - but not since then. It’s obviously highly urbanised though with ever-increasing development so they’ll probably become more common in the future.

We’ve probably been lucky with the rain. 

Edited by cheese
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

It remains a never ending mystery to me why the cold and ice lovers seem to feel that they deserve more than the rest of us mere mortals. As witnessed by the oft repeated saying, or words to that effect, "God, do we ever deserve it" at the possibility of crippling snow and ice sometime in the next six months. I mean, do they contribute more to the Cornish destitute fund? No; the survivors of the 47, 62-3 winters fund? No. So essentially they are just a bunch of whingers who are not getting their sweeties 

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
1 hour ago, knocker said:

It remains a never ending mystery to me why the cold and ice lovers seem to feel that they deserve more than the rest of us mere mortals. As witnessed by the oft repeated saying, or words to that effect, "God, do we ever deserve it" at the possibility of crippling snow and ice sometime in the next six months. I mean, do they contribute more to the Cornish destitute fund? No; the survivors of the 47, 62-3 winters fund? No. So essentially they are just a bunch of whingers who are not getting their sweeties 

I do wish you'd get off the fence

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10 hours ago, Nick L said:

Bit harsh. He's a meteorology graduate.

More than a bit harsh, he has completed his masters and is half way to his PhD and is a published researcher alongside well known meteorologists (with particular regard to the stratosphere) such as Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez and Jason Furtado, and has a paper currently in review co-authored by sometime contributor to the strat thread Zac Lawrence (curator of stratobserve.com). His tweets are some of the more interesting out there and a world apart from some of the popular uninformed drivel which frequently graces these forums!

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
10 hours ago, cheese said:

Yes very unusual. Didn’t realise how few poor it had been. Leeds city centre did have two frost-free months in 1990 - Jan and Feb - but not since then. It’s obviously highly urbanised though with ever-increasing development so they’ll probably become more common in the future.

We’ve probably been lucky with the rain. 

Just two air frosts here too and they were a feeble -0.4C and -0.5C. All in all, it's been below freezing for barely 5 hours this month.

It's looking like a sunny month for us however. We need just 18hrs more to break the record and that'll get a huge bite out of it today.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
58 minutes ago, Interitus said:

More than a bit harsh, he has completed his masters and is half way to his PhD and is a published researcher alongside well known meteorologists (with particular regard to the stratosphere) such as Amy Butler, Andrew Charlton-Perez and Jason Furtado, and has a paper currently in review co-authored by sometime contributor to the strat thread Zac Lawrence (curator of stratobserve.com). His tweets are some of the more interesting out there and a world apart from some of the popular uninformed drivel which frequently graces these forums!

Quite right - he may be a graduate and fairly young, but he’s had papers published and is highly regarded in the strat world. If he says something it’s usually worth a listen. People like Judah Cohen are very knowledgable, but as a known cold ramper he posts too many red herrings.

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Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
15 hours ago, Mapantz said:

That must be highly unusual for your neck of the woods, cheese?

I've managed 5 here. Poor compared to last year, but not as bad as 2018.

I'm on my 5th month in a row for 100mm+. January is currently as 115mm.

11 air frosts here nothing below -2c though.

2018 are you sure thats 2 years ago the whole season gave a magnificent 47 air frosts some extremely severe with that mighty BEAST FROM THE EAST.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
6 hours ago, knocker said:

It remains a never ending mystery to me why the cold and ice lovers seem to feel that they deserve more than the rest of us mere mortals. As witnessed by the oft repeated saying, or words to that effect, "God, do we ever deserve it" at the possibility of crippling snow and ice sometime in the next six months. I mean, do they contribute more to the Cornish destitute fund? No; the survivors of the 47, 62-3 winters fund? No. So essentially they are just a bunch of whingers who are not getting their sweeties 

To be fair, this Winter has been one tiring journey chasing after the sweets and candy in the models. Soaks up work time going after those sweeties and for getting addicted to the biggest sweet of all -Netweather! If the sweets can’t be had, think I’d be happy to settle with the salmon and salad.  Healthier and less stressful lol.

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