Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Snowyowl9]

Snowless januarys 1992...2002..1989..

Snow has fell here this month not stuck,but thats coming next tuesday dusting at best.

[trickydicky]

I’m on the verge of completing 2 essentially* snowless winters in a row, which for where I live is pretty ridiculous really. I haven’t seen proper snow since the Beast from the East’s little brother in mid March 2018. I’m not even sure 06/07 and 07/08 when I lived in Preston were this hopeless. 
 

*I saw snow falling one night last winter to a depth of 1 flake that melted as soon as the sun thought about coming up so wouldn’t even meet the Met Office 9am standard. This year I haven’t even seen sleet. 

[Summer Sun]

Here we go. Getting set for winter to arrive in spring...

 

[hillbilly]

It is looking likely that winter is going to arrive in spring if it is to arrive at all.Hopefully we may get another March 2018,2013,2001,1987 or 1979 

I could always dream of skipping winter altogether for a repeat of April 1981 !

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Here we go. Getting set for winter to arrive in spring...

 

Certainly seems to be changing the tune from earlier in the week. Promising. 

[legritter]

Would be great to have ,cold high pressure, every one seeing a decent snowfall, sliders ,channel lows ,polar lows forming and moving south across the backbone of the UK, and of course some lake effect snow .lets hope IFF a good  SSW does occur we can get it to fall in our favour. Great posts , thanks for all the information and charts   , no ones posted on model discussion for 4 hours  ,desperate times ,cheers gang .

[bradymk]

51 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Here we go. Getting set for winter to arrive in spring...

 

Hope this reply to Ian means that GloSea is also seeing this. 

[PiscesStar]

Lol we'd all be celibate for 6 months for a snowflake 

[Don]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Here we go. Getting set for winter to arrive in spring...

 

Good to see Marco taking note.  This won't please those looking forward to spring, but I hope that after an awful winter so far for cold/snow lovers, early spring at least will be cold and potentially snowy.  For those who want a hot summer, don't fret as a cold spring certainly does not preclude this.  Look at 2013!

Edited January 25, 2020 by Don

[Catacol]

8 hours ago, Catacol said:

And am I right in remembering that today is the two year anniversary of the Met Office comment that there was no sign of an SSW and the forecast through Feb March was therefore unremarkable? Seem to remember that comment was deleted afterwards though some sharp eyed observers copied it...

Maybe 2020 can bring something similar.

I was a day out. Contingency forecast of 26th January 2018 below - see final paragraph. So there is always opportunity for error, and hope springs eternal...

[Don]

4 hours ago, bradythemole said:

Hope this reply to Ian means that GloSea is also seeing this. 

I would have thought Ian would have access to GloSea?

Edited January 25, 2020 by Don

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, Don said:

I would have thought Ian would have access to GloSea?

He implying not.

[Don]

3 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

He implying not.

I know that but I'm surprised he doesn't have access.

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

24 minutes ago, Don said:

I know that but I'm surprised he doesn't have access.

He did when the Met Office were supplying forecasts to the BBC. I would suspect that access was lost when MeteoGroup took over.

[Don]

Just now, bathweatherwatcher said:

He did when the Met Office were supplying forecasts to the BBC. I would suspect that access was lost when MeteoGroup took over.

Ahh, that would make sense!

[MP-R]

7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Here we go. Getting set for winter to arrive in spring...

 

Ugh... yawn. All cold Marches tend to be wet too - just what we need...

[Don]

2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Ugh... yawn. All cold Marches tend to be wet too - just what we need...

You could take a trip to the Mendip hills.

[knocker]

Not going to happen but interesting 850mb temps in Europe resulting from the latest amplification and subsequent trough disruption

[Weather-history]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Not going to happen but interesting 850mb temps in Europe resulting from the latest amplification and subsequent trough disruption

That is awful the colour scaling on that second map.  It's natural instinct to think blue is cold and red is warm. 

[MP-R]

9 hours ago, Don said:

You could take a trip to the Mendip hills.

I quite often do in marginal situations. If it’s worth chasing for though, there won’t be any need to go to the Mendips.

[oliverek7]

14 hours ago, Don said:

Good to see Marco taking note.  This won't please those looking forward to spring, but I hope that after an awful winter so far for cold/snow lovers, early spring at least will be cold and potentially snowy.  For those who want a hot summer, don't fret as a cold spring certainly does not preclude this.  Look at 2013!

Yep and March 2018 certainly did not stop one of the hottest summers on record from happening

Edited January 26, 2020 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Climate Man]

49 minutes ago, LRD said:

Look at the Azores high. Just LOOK AT IT

Completely bloated northwards. It's incredible and 'extreme' in its own way. Anyone saying this is normal* winter weather is very wrong (if it was normal the CET wouldn't be running ridiculously high for this month. So, by definition, it isn't normal)

Even at the end of the run...

...it is STILL on our SW doorstep. Barely moves

ECM has it slightly further out of the way but still an utterly pathetic chart for 'winter'

This so-called winter could be right up there (or down there depending on your perspective) with 1988-89 and 1997-98. Awful

 

*although, having said that, this could be the new 'normal'

I am already starting to think about what this "stuck" pattern will mean for summer - hot or will solar minimum, smoke and volcanic activity result in a poor summer with little distinction between seasons. Erring on the side of the latter unfortunately.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

18 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

I am already starting to think about what this "stuck" pattern will mean for summer - hot or will solar minimum, smoke and volcanic activity result in a poor summer with little distinction between seasons. Erring on the side of the latter unfortunately.

I worry if we can't break out of these prolonged periods of overcast skies even within high pressure systems, sunshine amounts could be lower than average and therefore keeping the temperatures down too I'd have thought 

[The PIT]

You can guarantee in summer we will perfect charts for winter. Faint hopes that a change may come if we get a warming event in the Stratosphere. So something may drop from the models fairly suddenly but I wouldn't hold my breath. So the year without an winter looks set to continue. 

[LRD]

37 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

I am already starting to think about what this "stuck" pattern will mean for summer - hot or will solar minimum, smoke and volcanic activity result in a poor summer with little distinction between seasons. Erring on the side of the latter unfortunately.

I think for me in the SE of England we will have another warm summer, which is great and the more positive side of the Az High's continued bloatedness. We haven't had a genuinely poor summer down here since 2012 (and even then, August turned out quite nice). Summers since 1989 have been, generally good, with some exceptions obviously. 

The sun is too strong for cloudy highs in summer but they can happen. Quite rare though. That weird spell in June 2019 was an example I guess. For the East of the country anyway

Anyway, I'll leave it there as we're straying off topic

GFS 6z seems stuck at 114hrs on Wetterzentrale

Edited January 26, 2020 by LRD