Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Carl46Wrexham]

This ‘winter’ is definitely in the top 3 (or should that be scraping the bottom of the barrel 3) of the poorest winters I can remember, alongside 2013/14 and the equally dire 1974/75 (which gave us where I live more snow on one day in October 1974 than in the entire winter which followed)

[Kentish Man]

I think with just 5 weeks to go and no signs of a SSW we can formally write off 2019/20 and consign it to the list of rubbish post 1987 winters from a cold viewpoint. Add in the endless rain apart from  this last week of almost as miserable  AC gloom then it becomes what I would consider as one of the top 3 worst winters of that period 

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, Kentish Man said:

I think with just 5 weeks to go and no signs of a SSW we can formally write off 2019/20 and consign it to the list of rubbish post 1987 winters from a cold viewpoint. Add in the endless rain apart from  this last week of almost as miserable  AC gloom then it becomes what I would consider as one of the top 3 worst winters of that period 

That's not technically true - there are signs that something is afoot in the strat. Check Simon Lees twitter and available data etc. Nothing concrete yet, but there could be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That's not technically true - there are signs that something is afoot in the strat. Check Simon Lees twitter and available data etc. Nothing concrete yet, but there could be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

But there are always 'signs' that 'something is afoot in the strat', mb?

[Catacol]

3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Not sure I agree there; winter 2017-18 moderate La Nina = fairly cold February with cold spell at the end; winter 2011-12 moderate La Nina = cold period early Feb; winter 1984-85 moderate La Nina = cold Jan - Mar period. winter 1955-56 moderate La Nina = very cold February.  The only years of moderate La Nina that had a cold December were 2010 and to a lesser extent 1995, although 1995-96 also had a cold spell late January and a fairly cold February.  The only significant example of a La Nina having a cold early winter and a mild late winter was 2010-11 (a strong La Nina) although other strong La Nina years mostly saw an average to slightly above December and an overall mild rest of the winter.  I cannot see looking at all La Nina winters since 1950 that there is much of a correlation between a cold early winter and mild late winter apart from 2010-11.

I haven't had the time to sit down with tables and numbers and look at it - but in my head a moderate -1.5 Nina early season that then moves closer to neutral as winter progresses is what I hope for. But i'm guilty there of insufficient data to back up the assertion. Will try and take a look perhaps over the weekend if time allows. And it needs to be placed in the wider context of QBO and extra tropical SSTS anyway so the picture is undoubtedly complex.

We all know now though that we hate a strongly +IOD. Time to get some tee shirts made.... 

[mb018538]

36 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

But there are always 'signs' that 'something is afoot in the strat', mb?

According to certain posters, then yes! I only really start to take notice when certain people start mentioning it.

[BruenSryan]

17 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

Oh mate, you are selling Slovakia to me. 
 

My partner is from Latvia, and while it’s a completely different region, they also enjoy woodland hikes and skiing, although it’s quite flat. They get plenty of snow usually, but 2019/20 has been snowless so far there.

Ireland is nice, but it has way too much rain for my liking, and while it has lovely countryside, I find The Lakes region in England just as nice, although weather can be poor also.

The rain isn't even a problem much of the time here in the east of Ireland. Much of the "wet days" are drizzle or light rain for a few minutes due to low lying stratus cloud. Rarely get a proper wet day. The problem with Ireland is the lack of sunshine (have you seen the articles of people lacking vitamin D in Donegal) and if you want extreme weather or seasons, probably one of the worst countries in the world then.

[Northernlights]

Lost count of the number of times in the last 50 odd years we have been ready to sow crop in March in nice drying soils in March only to have a sudden fall of dry powdery snow.Springs are often snowier than winters up here.Sea temperatures are at thair lowest and N and E winds reach their  highest frequency all the way to June and I have seen ice days in early April with blowing snow.Fresh snow often falls on the mountains round the Firth till June and last  year in early May we had a .sharp air frost that knocked out all the apple blossom. One tree had only one apple on it this year.

Having joned this forum in 2005 I now understand its the break up of the polar vortex which spillsl umps of  cold  air  south over us in the spring when we can go from 21c one afternoon to -2c the following morning with dry snow falling.   Putting cattle out to grass in the third week of April often tempts the weather gods to make it snow.        Arctic outbreaks in spring are often characterised by showers of grauple too. Saw the  result of a blizzard in the third week of May 1975  at Tomintoul  burying sheep and lambs to be followed by doing agri exams 6 floors up  in Aberdeen watching snow showers come in off the North Sea on the 1st of June 1975.

So lots of time for snow yet.  July is probably the only visible  snow free month on the mountains round here although I remember seeing pictures of lying snow on the Cairngorms around the 7th of July one year.

 

[Catacol]

24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

That's not technically true - there are signs that something is afoot in the strat. Check Simon Lees twitter and available data etc. Nothing concrete yet, but there could be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

The suggestion is of another cold March as a growing possibility. But it is a long way off, and Lee himself says that ensemble data moves in different directions in early February. Expectations need to remain grounded - temperatures over Europe look set to remain high in terms of sourcing, and the FEb 18 Beast was the most significant late season reversal impact in the modern record and shouldnt be taken as likely to repeat. The chances of a properly cold and snowy March are not great!

However a freakish Dec 2010....a freakish March 2018. Maybe the freak will become the norm....

[Penrith Snow]

Oh well, at least the Spanish have some snow:

Snowploughs clearing up to 50 cm of snow in north-west Murcia

MURCIATODAY.COM

---

 

It must be nice digging your way out of your drive knowing that in less than 2 months you will be sat in the garden with a beer.

BTW these scenes are from the Murcia Region of South East Spain at an altitude of 2000 feet, in the higher Sierra Espuna Mountains 2 meters of snow has fallen above 3000 feet.

Andy

[sundog]

Got my first smell of summer early last night.  Eastern Europeans in a house a few doors down from me were having a little bbq. Smelling a bbq on a dark misty cloudy night in Jan felt strange . Lol.

[jules216]

1 hour ago, BruenSryan said:

The rain isn't even a problem much of the time here in the east of Ireland. Much of the "wet days" are drizzle or light rain for a few minutes due to low lying stratus cloud. Rarely get a proper wet day. The problem with Ireland is the lack of sunshine (have you seen the articles of people lacking vitamin D in Donegal) and if you want extreme weather or seasons, probably one of the worst countries in the world then.

Throughout my time in Ireland I have experienced summer 06,April 07,May 08,Spring 09,summer 13,14 and 18,those spells were amazing,Ireland is great country in sun and warmth.On the other hand last summer was my first  back in Slovakia after 15 years away and recorded 39 days of thunderstorms! Like 10 of them dumped over 30mm in few hours,90% of time they occured between 3pm and 6pm when you have to do school run,its not fun as I know few people who were killed localy by thunder while working in forests.My region is a thunderstorm hotspot of Europe where hot barely breathable air from Hungary meets lower slopes of Carpathian/Tatra mountains and thunderstorm generates right above my town,crazy.Irish drizzle is annoying but harmless

[hillbilly]

2 hours ago, Northernlights said:

Lost count of the number of times in the last 50 odd years we have been ready to sow crop in March in nice drying soils in March only to have a sudden fall of dry powdery snow.Springs are often snowier than winters up here.Sea temperatures are at thair lowest and N and E winds reach their  highest frequency all the way to June and I have seen ice days in early April with blowing snow.Fresh snow often falls on the mountains round the Firth till June and last  year in early May we had a .sharp air frost that knocked out all the apple blossom. One tree had only one apple on it this year.

Having joned this forum in 2005 I now understand its the break up of the polar vortex which spillsl umps of  cold  air  south over us in the spring when we can go from 21c one afternoon to -2c the following morning with dry snow falling.   Putting cattle out to grass in the third week of April often tempts the weather gods to make it snow.        Arctic outbreaks in spring are often characterised by showers of grauple too. Saw the  result of a blizzard in the third week of May 1975  at Tomintoul  burying sheep and lambs to be followed by doing agri exams 6 floors up  in Aberdeen watching snow showers come in off the North Sea on the 1st of June 1975.

So lots of time for snow yet.  July is probably the only visible  snow free month on the mountains round here although I remember seeing pictures of lying snow on the Cairngorms around the 7th of July one year.

 

On the 9th an exceptional cold front brought heavy rain and a large temperature drop to the south, along with a strong northwesterly. Whipsnade had a midday temperature of 7.5C. At Birmingham airport the 1 om reading was 9.8C, Lerwick 8.5C; snow was recorded on some of the higher peaks in Scotland. In some places such as London there was an instant dramatic fall in temperature. At Heathrow the temperature fell from 18.5C to 10.7C in minutes in the early afternoon.

July 1993 describes your July snow

Also snow in the Cairngorms 30th July 1965

Edited January 24, 2020 by hillbilly

[swfc]

Tbh I'm struggling  to see anything positive today on the mo.bit of unsettled late January weather then maybe a high over the UK?please give me good tidings and platitudes showing winter?I can't see anything

[Timmytour]

4 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

.... bar the odd cold snap.. 

What I wouldn't give for even just an odd cold snap this winter!

Nonetheless I can envisage a high sitting over the UK again on the modes pushing further north this time and , if it gets to a tipping point,   maybe....just maybe

[SLEETY]

Any chance ECM can throw out something really cold at the end of its run.I can’t remember a winter with a lack of any eye candy in FL,,nothing but mild operationals for months.

And it’s utterly dire again.Nearly time to throw the towel in

Edited January 24, 2020 by SLEETY

[swfc]

EC is rank.tbh I wished I lived in Spain this winter it's been a cracker

[Weather Boy]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Any chance ECM can throw out something really cold at the end of its run.I can’t remember a winter with a lack of any eye candy in FL,,nothing but mild operationals for months.

And it’s utterly dire again.Nearly time to throw the towel in

Struck me that snorefest winters have been had before but rarely with such little cold chasing from models that have offered very little hope at all, so far. Even LRFs have proved good.

Is this a sign of model improvement, I wonder?

[Carl46Wrexham]

This ‘winter’ can suck my big toe.

[Bristawl Si]

10 hours ago, mb018538 said:

That's not technically true - there are signs that something is afoot in the strat. Check Simon Lees twitter and available data etc. Nothing concrete yet, but there could be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow.

He is a student. Twitter breeds publicity seeking peeps.

[Don]

15 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

This ‘winter’ can suck my big toe.

What winter?! 

[Catacol]

Hmmm - some interest in strat process at the moment. Feb 18 we had the SSW that brought the March Beast on Feb 12th. A suggestion across more than one model today that a mid Feb strat disruption may be in the offing. Winter may be a done deal, but perhaps early Spring can, once again, deliver real wintry interest. Wouldn’t be out of kilter with recent years....

If the signal remains or grows tomorrow I’ll put together a longer post.

[Catacol]

And am I right in remembering that today is the two year anniversary of the Met Office comment that there was no sign of an SSW and the forecast through Feb March was therefore unremarkable? Seem to remember that comment was deleted afterwards though some sharp eyed observers copied it...

Maybe 2020 can bring something similar.

[Griff]

25 minutes ago, Catacol said:

And am I right in remembering that today is the two year anniversary of the Met Office comment that there was no sign of an SSW and the forecast through Feb March was therefore unremarkable? Seem to remember that comment was deleted afterwards though some sharp eyed observers copied it...

Maybe 2020 can bring something similar.

I hope this is true, would love to see that comment

[knocker]

Plenty of eye candy on offer in the late stages of the EPS this morning. Hopefully we can save Spring