Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[matty40s]

1 hour ago, hillbilly said:

Does anyone know what the Manchester winter index is running at

2.30 at Kempton

[DAVID SNOW]

12 minutes ago, matty40s said:

2.30 at Kempton

Think its a non runner.

[trickydicky]

10 hours ago, damianslaw said:

I posted a few days ago, quite right those wanting cold and snow are bemoaning this winter so far.. and as I pointed out, we have been here so many times before in winters since 87/88, we've had whole winters equally devoid of anything especially cold or snowy, many have brought no days with snow cover to many parts of the south at least, and for the north including here, just the odd morning or two.. 

Winter 88/89, 89/90, 91/92, 97/98, 99/00, 06/07, 07/08, 13/14, 15/16, 16/17 and last year, all equally devoid of much cold or snow.. we have been drawn a very short straw since 12/13 it seems, and its this factor more than anything that is grating people probably this year more than any, as apart for the late Feb 2018 / early March cold spell, we have had nothing especially cold or snowy (not just a one day event as happened in Dec 17..), since March 2013, that's 7 long years now... patience comes to those who wait, but many people's patience is now at an all time low.. 

Not ruling out a potent cold spell with some snow before March is out (note I am saying March not February), as March can pack a cold snowy punch as potent as anything in Dec-Feb. So we have 2 and half months left to go yet.. never throw in the towel until the final whistle blows!

 

We have had notable spells of very warm (circa 35c) weather in every summer in the same time frame (post 2013) as well, so we are clearly in a warm cycle at the moment. Part of the desperation I suppose comes from the question of whether this is a cycle and we might end up back at a 2009-2013, or at least average, period or if global warming has led to a permanent switch to perma-autumn in the UK and this is our grey, dull, damp lot now.

[jules216]

5 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Just like that...

Look how the positive height anomalies reappear to our N as we hit late spring

Same thing happened last May, a whopping -NAO and Euro trough, we received over 130mm rainfall in Slovakia, but then on the 1st of June Euro high returned with a bang and never left apart from few weeks in July and November 

[mb018538]

That -NAO went on for most of late spring and summer last year.

The first half of June was atrocious here - the 10th June had a maximum of 9c, the 11th 10c, and the 12th and 13th 11c. That's about as bad as you can get in summer.

[Catacol]

8 hours ago, TomW said:

The only thing left that could make this winter even worse is if a proper Bartlett high sets up in February, hopefully it won't come to that.

Still plenty of time left this winter as I tend to include March as a winter month, because you tend to see colder weather in March than December on average.

I’m afraid that if the current spike in AAM aided by MJO convection into the maritimes and maybe a bit beyond doesn’t shift the overall pattern dictated by the vortex (and the odds are against it now) then I think this is exactly what we will get. Euro high to setup as the Pacific signal heads back to Africa encouraged by vortex control of the high latitudes.

Then a renewed bout of convection at the turn of Feb/March which ironically will hit when the vortex is fast losing power due to seasonal transition...and as a result a tendency for high lat blocking to finally arrive, just when Spring lovers won’t want it. I don’t give a hoot about Spring and when it arrives - but a more blocked March would need to tap into cold air over Europe and by end of Feb I don’t see there being any. So it becomes a colder month but without much chance of really cold synoptics and snow.

Any hope? 2 slim ones. That the models are completely misreading the Pacific signal which currently is spiking high...and that momentum increases aided by forecast East Asian torque do much more damage to the vortex than most are expecting now heralding an interesting second half of February, or actually we get an end of Feb SSW brought about by the softening of the vortex now followed up by a knock out blow end of Feb which creates a 2018 style March reversal. But in truth March18 was freakish in its intensity, and to pin hopes on another such setup feels a long shot. Has to be very much an outside chance, though snow lovers I’m sure will keep an eye on a Simon Lee’s new North Atlantic dipole index which I think was developed partly as a result of the extraordinary 2018 setup in the hope that a similar occurrence might be possible.

The IO temperature profile did for us this year - I’m increasingly convinced this is what the post winter debrief will say. Nothing we can do but shrug and move on. Forget climate change for a moment - climate change is a million miles away from ending pools of very cold air developing over polar latitudes in winter with the potential for that cold to seep south. It’s a nonsense to suggest that our winters will never see cold again. But rising pressure in the sub tropical belt looks to be linked to climate change as waters warm globally, and so the frequency of such events is likely to decline. Year on year patience may well need to become a powerful virtue until/unless climate change brings further perhaps unseen impacts of global circulation...and by the time there is much chance of that I expect to be a poltergeist haunting the corridors of the MetOffice......

Edited January 23, 2020 by Catacol

[Carl46Wrexham]

5 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Just like that...

Look how the positive height anomalies reappear to our N as we hit late spring

Someone up there doesn’t like us very much..

[jules216]

Just looking at seasonal forecast from UKMO in October for winter 2019/20. It gets a lot of praise but look at forecast anomaly against running mean from 01.12 to 20.01. Their seasonal model had slightly lower heights in Baltics/Belarus and northern Poland, yet these regions have experienced the highest anomalies so far. So if we look at Europe it is not that great at all. I know it nailed NAO and Arctic profile, but by no meas the extend of Euro high 

[Stabilo19]

Could the hottest summer temperature on record be followed by the mildest winter on record? Looks like it? 

[MP-R]

6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Just like that...

Look how the positive height anomalies reappear to our N as we hit late spring

I guess to be expected; often is the case in April-June. Hopefully it won’t bring about a series of unstuck southerly lows off the Atlantic bringing a continued UK monsoon!

[AderynCoch]

37 minutes ago, Stabilo19 said:

Could the hottest summer temperature on record be followed by the mildest winter on record? Looks like it? 

It already followed the highest winter temperature on record from the previous February. 

[matty40s]

1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

That -NAO went on for most of late spring and summer last year.

The first half of June was atrocious here - the 10th June had a maximum of 9c, the 11th 10c, and the 12th and 13th 11c. That's about as bad as you can get in summer.

First half of June was VERY memorable, Rained for days up to the 2pm on sat 8th that we got married, managed to stay dry  but cold and windy for our outdoor reception, then we cruised off on the boat to spend the next 5 days moored up as torrential rain continued.

We had a great time by the way.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Brilliant post @Catacol I completely agree with that summary. Large cold pools will exist for a long time, it's going to be a case of the UK being lucky for a direct hit from it! I firmly believe we have cycles regarding cold and mild spells, unfortunately due to climate change these scenarios may become less frequent, but they will turn up in clusters non the same! I'm convinced we will still see a repeat situation of the 82/83 freeze, and of course the 87/88 freeze. I still have vivid memories of these winters even though I was only a teen back in 88,what a petty we didn't have mobile phones back then, to stamp it further into the memory! But being knee deep in snow during a whiteout while sledging is a moment I will never forget. I still have the scars on my backside as proof as well! But it was that darn cold I couldn't feel it.. I only hope some of these spells can manifest themselves pretty soon, just to give the younger audience an idea of how great it could be. 

[AderynCoch]

On 20/01/2020 at 12:57, Nath said:

Sorry for the late reply, cant believe I missed 2 cm of snow by hours!!   Anyway what a fantastic city you live in, feels totally safe, the people are lovely and no gangsters anywhere.  I dont know why I still live in London, the total opposite!!

Sorry for the even later reply.

It turned out you didn't miss much unless you wanted to go walking in the hills, as Sunday was an epic fail...1C and raining all day. I was not impressed! There's been virtually nothing left here since Monday, so I've had to go up nearby Devínska Kolyba (~500m) to get my snow fix.

Worth it though.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

5 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like a lil cold snap next week with the snow row going up to 11 for London on the latest GEFS!

Make that 12 on the 6z!

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

Agree with @Mattwolves a great post @Catacol from late autumn and through winter (so far) there have been either record cold temperatures or record snowfall or both in - parts of USA, Newfoundland, Scandinavia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, also snowfall events in Iceland and New Mexico / Arizona (desert areas) and below average temperatures in India so whilst we see the warm side of the climate change story too these cold events are still possible and IMO it is only a matter of time before the UK will see cold / snowfall events again, the million pound question will be when and that is often part of the enjoyment the thrill of the chase although this winter it does appear that the IOD and the coupling of the strat have scuppered our chances though with the IOD having weakened somewhat and an upcoming PV displacement likely hopefully we can salvage something that resembles winter.

[jules216]

1 hour ago, AderynCoch said:

Sorry for the even later reply.

It turned out you didn't miss much unless you wanted to go walking in the hills, as Sunday was an epic fail...1C and raining all day. I was not impressed! There's been virtually nothing left here since Monday, so I've had to go up nearby Devínska Kolyba (~500m) to get my snow fix.

Worth it though.

Yes it didn't work out for the Bratislava region as expected. Still better then us in the Roznava region. Last of the snow only staying in shaded areas with poor forecast for next 10 days. But I would happily take a day like today, overnight hard frost and blue skies currently. @Nath thanks for positive feedback from you trip to Bratislava, for similar reasons I decided to move back home after 15 years in Ireland. It is very safe here with the bonus of reasonably unspoiled nature and mountains, generally welcoming and helpful people/neighbors around

[MikeC53]

1 hour ago, matty40s said:

First half of June was VERY memorable, Rained for days up to the 2pm on sat 8th that we got married, managed to stay dry  but cold and windy for our outdoor reception, then we cruised off on the boat to spend the next 5 days moored up as torrential rain continued.

We had a great time by the way.

Yes dreadful stuff and  indicators suggest that we will see Northern blocking in May and June again. 

[Sunny76]

3 hours ago, jules216 said:

Yes it didn't work out for the Bratislava region as expected. Still better then us in the Roznava region. Last of the snow only staying in shaded areas with poor forecast for next 10 days. But I would happily take a day like today, overnight hard frost and blue skies currently. @Nath thanks for positive feedback from you trip to Bratislava, for similar reasons I decided to move back home after 15 years in Ireland. It is very safe here with the bonus of reasonably unspoiled nature and mountains, generally welcoming and helpful people/neighbors around

Were the people of Ireland not kind to you? 

I'm part Irish, but i know one thing that puts me off living there is the poor weather. The people are mostly friendly though. 

I remember being over in Cork for a summer break to see family, and even when England was having a heatwave, Ireland was mostly under damp and cool conditions. 

[jules216]

57 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

Were the people of Ireland not kind to you? 

I'm part Irish, but i know one thing that puts me off living there is the poor weather. The people are mostly friendly though. 

I remember being over in Cork for a summer break to see family, and even when England was having a heatwave, Ireland was mostly under damp and cool conditions. 

Yes I was lucky to live in a nice area in Co.Wicklow and people were friendly,generaly I enjoyed my time in Ireland,I think the last few years it didnt take the right path with cost of living and the way country was run,safety becoming an issue in Dublin and of course the weather was so so.I did start to miss the continental lifestyle eventually being able to do things on the weekends which I could only do on holidays like going to local commuter pool in summer,skating on frozen lakes,skiing,family and friends from childhood,Slovakia is poor compared to Ireland but a bit more things to do here year round specially outdoors

[SLEETY]

our turn for unseasonably cold weather will probably happen in the summer again,with HLB taking over.Watch this space..

[Catacol]

8 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Brilliant post @Catacol I completely agree with that summary. Large cold pools will exist for a long time, it's going to be a case of the UK being lucky for a direct hit from it! I firmly believe we have cycles regarding cold and mild spells, unfortunately due to climate change these scenarios may become less frequent, but they will turn up in clusters non the same! I'm convinced we will still see a repeat situation of the 82/83 freeze, and of course the 87/88 freeze. I still have vivid memories of these winters even though I was only a teen back in 88,what a petty we didn't have mobile phones back then, to stamp it further into the memory! But being knee deep in snow during a whiteout while sledging is a moment I will never forget. I still have the scars on my backside as proof as well! But it was that darn cold I couldn't feel it.. I only hope some of these spells can manifest themselves pretty soon, just to give the younger audience an idea of how great it could be. 

A cold winter will come - for sure. People prior to 09 had started to right off cold and then we got 2 good ones and a half decent one in the space of 4 years. And individual weeks of snowy cold like 91 and 96 will happen. Just not in 2019/20 I fear. Girding the loins to face 6 weeks of hay fever misery and hiding from the heat through summer (I am distinctly unhappy in June and July in particular) before looking once again for winter onset. Before then Spring is often a pleasant transition and warm days in April are a delight. So not all bad.

And let’s not forget 2 out of the last 7 March months have held significant cold interest. 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Catacol said:

A cold winter will come - for sure. People prior to 09 had started to right off cold and then we got 2 good ones and a half decent one in the space of 4 years. And individual weeks of snowy cold like 91 and 96 will happen. Just not in 2019/20 I fear. Girding the loins to face 6 weeks of hay fever misery and hiding from the heat through summer (I am distinctly unhappy in June and July in particular) before looking once again for winter onset. Before then Spring is often a pleasant transition and warm days in April are a delight. So not all bad.

And let’s not forget 2 out of the last 7 March months have held significant cold interest. 

 

Indeed i have had dumpings in 3 of the last 7.

[Catacol]

7 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

the million pound question will be when and that is often part of the enjoyment the thrill of the chase although this winter it does appear that the IOD and the coupling of the strat have scuppered our chances though with the IOD having weakened somewhat and an upcoming PV displacement likely hopefully we can salvage something that resembles winter.

Yes - 4 +IOD winters now in the recent record and all have had high winter CETs. I have added the IOD as a feature to pay serious notice to in every winter run up. Produces the wrong forcing in terms of upsetting the vortex.

The thrill of the chase is 2/3 of the fun I agree. It is a shame that so many white flags have been raised around the forums on both sides of the Atlantic for this season. Even the ever optimistic Masiello has pretty much thrown in the towel. We move on - stuff happens. But as to the million dollar question - some of the more significant building blocks are in place for 2020/21 already. QBO will be favourable (bar anything remarkable) and solar will be low and turning towards cycle 25 - and there is a suggestion that the turn into a new cycle is a 2-3 year cold sweet spot. Also at the moment here isn’t a long term forecast for a savagely strong Nino or Niña (both of which do not favour cold patterns) though there are many months to pass before we get a sense of the ENSO signature in October/November as we run into the next thrill season. So maybe 2020/21 might be it. For perfect context we would like to see the warm water around Greenland expand, and the North Pacific warm mass moderate a bit. And most certainly we don’t want a record breaking IOD again!

Edited January 23, 2020 by Catacol

[jules216]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - 4 +IOD winters now in the recent record and all have had high winter CETs. I have added the IOD as a feature to pay serious notice to in every winter run up. Produces the wrong forcing in terms of upsetting the vortex.

The thrill of the chase is 2/3 of the fun I agree. It is a shame that so many white flags have been raised around the forums on both sides of the Atlantic for this season. Even the ever optimistic Masiello has pretty much thrown in the towel. We move on - stuff happens. But as to the million dollar question - some of the more significant building blocks are in place for 2020/21 already. QBO will be favourable (bar anything remarkable) and solar will be low and turning towards cycle 25 - and there is a suggestion that the turn into a new cycle is a 2-3 year cold sweet spot. Also at the moment here isn’t a long term forecast for a savagely strong Nino or Niña (both of which do not favour cold patterns) though there are many months to pass before we get a sense of the ENSO signature in October/November as we run into the next thrill season. So maybe 2020/21 might be it. For perfect context we would like to see the warm water around Greenland expand, and the North Pacific warm mass moderate a bit. And most certainly we don’t want a record breaking IOD again!

Moderate Ninas or Moderate Ninos used to be good for cold winters in Europe. I remember @sebastiaan1973 posted a table few years ago of winters in various ENSO states and most of moderate Ninas were frigid winters in Europe.Though those good analogues dont seem to apply these day unfortunately